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May 2018Chief Investment Office GWMInvestment ResearchInvesting andfootballSpecial edition2018 World Cup in Russia

Investing in emerging marketsSpecial editionAuthorsJérôme AudranMichael BolligerTilmann KolbJorge MariscalQuentin PilloudEditor in ChiefTilmann KolbEditorsRussell ComerProject managementCorinne FedierDesign and publishingMichael GallikerWerner KuonenMargrit OppligerCommunicationFabian GmuenderIrene MilisennaSpecial thanksWe would like to thank VanessaMaldonado and Daniel Alexeev fortheir valuable inputs and importantcontributions.Cover pictureGettyimagesContents471012Some surprising factsabout RussiaWhat investors canlearn from successfulfootball teamsMore than goalsand feelings16And the winner is 22Investing in Russia30DisclaimerThis report has been prepared byUBS AG, UBS Financial Services Inc.(UBS FS), and UBS Switzerland AG.Please see important disclaimer atthe end of the document.2Christine NovakovicHead Europe, Middle East & AfricaUBS Global Wealth ManagementThe most exciting eventof the yearInvesting in emerging markets Special editionDear reader,Every four years, the world displaysgreat emotion as the beautiful gamecaptivates audiences around the globefor an entire month. Russia will hostthis year’s football World Cup, where,on 14 June a whistle at Luznhiki Stadium in Moscow will mark the start ofthe tournament. Visitors will have farmore to marvel at than just the world’stop footballers – Russia has a rich history, diverse culture, and majestic landscapes.Unfortunately, Russia has been in focusin recent months not only because ofthe upcoming festivities, but also dueto its deteriorating relations with theWest. This includes the introduction ofadditional sanctions by the US, whichhas weighed on Russian assets.But the upcoming tournament mayserve to showcase the country and itspeople, over and above political differences. A laid-back and friendly atmosphere during the World Cup, cheeringtogether in a stadium or at a publicInvesting in emerging markets Special editionviewing, and celebrating the victorswhile respecting the vanquished offerample opportunity to get to knowother cultures. We experience this faceof the Russian nation daily through ourinteractions with our Russian clients.For all of football’s passion, gettingcarried away by emotion is not a soundformula when investing, though. Inthis report, our Chief Investment Officecombines its excitement for the gamewith a (recommended) cool-headedapproach to investing. It takes a closerlook at the economic impact of thetournament on the host country, someof the challenges Russia faces, andwhere it sees opportunities for globalinvestors to seek exposure to Russianassets. And as is customary by now,the CIO also takes a shot at predictingthe winner of the tournament.I hope that you find this paper not onlyfun and enjoyable to read, but alsovaluable for your investment decisions.3

Investing and footballInvesting and football4That said, Russia’s role as a host nationhas resulted in significant controversy.234Public debt, in % of GDP14012010080604020Emerging marketsDeveloped ustralia0KoreaAs always, the tournament is anopportunity to tweak some of themodeling techniques we use in ourdaily work to the art of predicting theoutcome of the competition. We arehumble enough not to outright claimthat Germany will win the tournamentagain, but our simulations indicateAfter South Africa and Brazil, Russiawill be the third emerging nation tohost the tournament. If we add Qatarto the list, the host in 2022, the question can be asked whether great soccernations such as Germany, France, England, Italy, or Spain have becometired of hosting the tournament, lessappealing as hosts, or, whether theysimply have run out of money to treatthemselves to the luxury of such acostly endeavor.Not without internationalcontroversiesFig. 1PeruAnd the winner is Emerging hostsMoreover, Russia can afford its role asa host with ease. Looking at publicfinances in the most football-savvynations on each continent (Fig. 1), itshouldn’t be too big a surprise thatseveral developed nations might shyaway from the extra spending involvedin becoming a host nation. Instead,countries like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, orPeru seem to have a lot more fiscal leeway to host upcoming tournaments.Can your country’s public finances afford the luxury of being a host?RussiaThis time, the tournament will takeplace in Russia. The opening game isscheduled for 14 June in the LuzhnikiStadium in Moscow. Russia’s Sbornayawill meet the Falcons from SaudiArabia. Looking at their rankings,this might not be the highest standingpairing of the tournament. We areabsolutely sure, however, that thegame will be followed with greatexcitement across the globe and thatboth teams will play with passion andgrit for the first victory.there is no other team with higherodds to lift the trophy than the defending champion. The list of likely contenders for the title is long, however.Besides Brazil and Spain, it includesEngland, France, and Argentina. Andwith Belgium, we even see a moderatepossibility that a team might succeedwhich has not won the competitionbefore. We could even see Brazil faceits nemesis from 2014, Germany. Whilewe hope that the best team wins, wealso hope that the outcome is less devastating than last time, when our colleagues in São Paulo were depressedfor several weeks afterwards.we doubt that it will boost RussianGDP significantly in the longer term.With 28 UNESCO World Heritage Sites,amazing natural diversity, and a richcultural heritage, Russia has a lot tooffer tourists. Yet, it attracts fewer visitors than smaller countries such asMalaysia, Turkey, or Mexico, not tomention tourist powerhouses such asFrance, Italy or Spain. Moreover, thebenefit from investments in infrastructure should be higher in Russia thanin many European countries. The estimated spending of USD 12 billion,a bit less than 1% of GDP, might havea higher investment return in Russiathan in Spain, Italy, or France. Still,NigeriaWith just a few weeks leftuntil the opening game, it’stime again to start talkingabout what many considerthe most exciting event of theyear: The World Cup.The reality is probably more complex,but it likely includes the above arguments.Saudi ArabiaThe most excitingevent of the yearCurrent and future host nationsSource: Fitch, UBS, as of April 2018Investing in emerging markets Special editionInvesting in emerging markets Special edition5

Investing and footballFor a start, the naming of Russia andQatar as host nations for 2018 and2022 respectively, triggered severalinvestigations, and ended in a wideranging crackdown on corruption inthe sport. Although several seniorofficials have been banned from football, many feel that the tournament isstill tinged with controversy. And thenthere is Russia’s involvement in Syria,the accusation of meddling in foreignnations’ democratic elections, international sanctions against the country,and the conflict in Crimea. Tensionbetween Russia and the West has beenrising for a while, and it is going to bedifficult to de-escalate the situation inour view. We hope, though, that thethe countries will use the tournamentas an opportunity to build bridges. Thiswould evoke the ancient Greek tradition of pausing all warfare during theOlympic games.We structured this report as follows:We first present some interesting factsand figures about Russia, a countrythat has a lot more to offer than manythink. Next, we look at the takeawaysfrom successful soccer teams for investors in section 3. In section 4, we sharesome more thoughts on why it ismainly emerging countries that seemto be willing and able to act as hostnation, and whether it really pays offfor Russia to play host to such a majorsporting tournament. Section 5 takes alook at the chances of each team progressing through the tournament. In6Investing and footballa tribute to the Italian team, we re-runour simulations as if it were the Italianswho emerged as winners from dramatic showdown in the qualificationround. Last, we share some insights onthe investment landscape in Russia,focusing on economic trends anddevelopments, and on the investmentopportunities and risks the country offers investors. Given the heighteneduncertainty regarding sanctions, wecurrently advise a neutral allocation toRussian equities and the ruble, whilewe see opportunities to take selectiveexposure in Russian credit.Themis ThemistocleousHead of EuropeanInvestment OfficeMichael BolligerHead Asset AllocationEmerging MarketsInvesting in emerging markets Special editionSome surprisingfacts about RussiaQuentin Pilloud, Junior AssociateRussia is by far the largest country by areaon earth. Yet, when it comes to tourism,it is not a popular destination – just 24.6million people visited the country in 2016,less than much smaller nations such asMalaysia (26.8 million), Turkey (25.4 million) and Mexico (32.1 million). Eventhough the climate in large parts of thecountry may not favor tourism, the country offers a great deal to the traveler:28 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, anamazing natural diversity that ranges frombeaches in the south to arctic northernregions, as well as a rich cultural heritagethat includes world- famous museums, historical churches and buildings, and excellent art collections and exhibitions.правдаIf someone sneezes while sayingsomething, it means he or she istelling the truth. In this case peoplesay “правда” (or “pravda,” i.e. truth).90 yearsAlla Illyinichna Levushkina isthe world’s oldest surgeon.She is 90 and still performinghundreds of operations a year.She has no plans of retiring.Investing in emerging markets Special editionPlanet PlutoRussia has a surface area of17 million square kilometers, whichis almost the size of the dwarfplanet Pluto (estimated at 17.6m km2by NASA’s New Horizon Program).100 languagesRussia is home to at least150 ethnic groups and 100 minoritylanguages.Shops, Bars .openMost shops, restaurants and barsin Russia are open on Saturdaysand Sundays.Russians say.that if your right hand itches,you’ll soon be on the receivingend of money. It sometimesmeans you’re going to greetsomeone. If your left hand itches,you’re going to give someonemoney.7

Investing and footballInvesting and football 1111 time zones70 cats50%–67.7 CRussia has 11 different time zones,more than any other country.However, the football games will onlytake place in four time zones,spanning from Kaliningrad in theEastern European Time Zone(UTC 2) to Yekaterinburg(Yekaterinburg Time, UTC 5).The Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburgis home to around 70 cats. Cats havebeen working for the Hermitage asmousers since the 18th century on thethen-empress’ orders.Almost half of Russia is coveredby forests, this being the largestforest area on the planet, and70% larger than that in Brazil.The roughly 500 residents ofOymyakon occupy the coldestinhabited place on the planet,where the temperature droppedto –67.7 C at its nadir in 1933.Murmansk 91-3-5-7.If you present flowers to a Russian,ensure that there is an unevennumber of them in the bouquet.Even numbers of flowers are onlygiven at funerals.Russian women received the rightto vote in 1918, two years earlierthan in the US and much earlier thanin Switzerland (1971).MagadanSt. Petersburg 8 1MoscowNadym 7 2 31918 10RostovYekaterinburgSamara 4 6 5UfaOmskKrasnoyarskLake BaikalNovosibirskChitaVladivostok5642 meter9289 km22%Mount Elbrus is the highest mountainin Europe. It is situated in the Caucasusmountains in Southern Russia.Trans-Siberian Railway betweenMoscow and Vladivostok is thelongest railway line in the worldwith trains running on a dailyschedule.Lake Baikal is the largest freshwater lake by volume in the world.It contains 22% of the world’sfresh surface water, and is also thedeepest lake on earth.Russian Federation29%CheersPopulation: 144 million (United Nation Estimates 2015)Day of Russia: 12 JuneMajor cities: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, NizhnyNovgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, and UfaRussia’s citizens hold a highnumber of master’s degrees.According to the OECD, 29%of the population aged 25–64has one, or achieved acomparable levelof education.As a rule, every portion of alcoholin Russia is accompanied bya clink of glasses and a toast.It is considered an omen of badluck to make a toast with anempty glass.8Investing in emerging markets Special editionInvesting in emerging markets Special edition9

Investing and footballiStockWhat investors canlearn from successfulfootball teamsAgility. Balance. Calm. Threeattributes that complementteamwork and can transforma successful team into a futurechampion. And also attributesthat offer important lessonsfor investors to learn from successful football teams.Michael Bolliger,Head Emerging Market Asset AllocationJorge Mariscal,Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets10AgilityAgile teams can adjust their play todifferent opponents. Playing againsta team with a very defensive lineuprequires different tactics than againsta free-flowing attacking team. Teamsneed the ability to swiftly adapt to sudden, unexpected changes during thegame: An injury, a red card, or conceding an early goal can force teams toadjust their tactics quickly.dented change in monetary policy toolsand frameworks. The desire to stimulate growth and to fight deflationaryforces has resulted in many policyinventions. Investors first had to adaptto the powerful force of quantitativeeasing programs. Equity marketsreached new highs, bond yields newlows. Those who adjusted swiftly madebigger gains. Today, after almost adecade of policy support from theworld’s major central banks, the pendulum has started to swing in the otherdirection. The US Federal Reserve hasbeen hiking its policy rate for a while,and the European Central Bank willlikely end its quantitative easing program this year. This is occurring amidrising volatility and highly correlatedfinancial assets. Investors should consider alternative assets and be morenimble in adjusting their allocation.BalanceBalance is another important attribute.A successful team needs top playersin all positions. Keeper, defenders,mid-fielders, strikers, and a strong backup of reserve players on the side-lines.A few exceptional players can decide agame single-handedly. But the road tothe final is long, and even the bestplayers might be marked out of thegame or could simply have an off day.Investors face similar challenges. Thelast 10 years have seen an unprece-When it comes to investments, holdinga diversified portfolio of assets is incre dibly important. Global business cycledynamics as much as idiosyncraticInvesting in emerging markets Special editionInvesting in emerging markets Special editionevents can trigger losses. We buildour portfolios seeking to optimize thebenefits of diversification. Pairing traditional and non-traditional assets, riskystocks and defensive bonds, and allocating across regions is crucial in makingportfolios profitable in good times andto preserving gains during downturns.CalmAnd finally calm. Even the most experienced teams risk discarding their gameplan when time is running out. Andthe coolest forward might miss a simpleshot or a penalty under pressure. Theteams who can control their nervesand stick to their tactics for the entire90 minutes (or longer) have a greaterchance of success.Investment decisions are similar. The recent flare-up of geopolitical tensionsin the Near East. The rising threat of aglobal trade war. Concerns about a selloff in global bond markets. Being ableto distinguish between deterioratingfundamentals and softer growth on theone hand, and the daily noise on theother, is crucial. The former is a reasonto re-allocate a portfolio, the latter anopportunity to take profit on a hedgeor to double-down on an existing position. In both situations, though, stayingcalm pays off. And having a proveninvestment process at hand and theability to stay focused on the investment objectives can deliver a big difference for an investor’s long-term abilityto optimize returns.11

Moscow Skyline / iStockMore than goalsand feelings?event, and the development andupgrade of tourism infrastructure fromwhich the host reaps long-term benefit.Beyond intangible gains on reputationand prestige, the tourism sector is anobvious beneficiary. A common classifi-cation of the benefits includes theincreased visibility of a destination due tothe coverage the host country receivesbefore and during the tournament, aninflux of tourists who spend during theAccording to World Tourism Organization data, Russia drew 4.0% of inter national tourist arrivals in Europe andUSD 8bn in accompanying receipts in2016. This ranks it far behind touristpowerhouses such as France, Italy orTurkey, but puts it on par with Greeceand Austria with respect to visitor arrivals. Compared to other emerging markets such as Brazil and South Africa, ithosted twice the number of tourists in2016. Cultural destinations such asSt. Petersburg and Moscow, as well asBlack Sea resorts such as Sochi havealready secured their place on a globetrotter’s map. Still, some of the lesswell known venues may draw gainsfrom public media coverage due to thetournament and increase their namerecognition.12Investing in emerging markets Special editionInvesting in emerging markets Special editionShared enthusiasm for the sport, collective cheering at public viewings, a country welcoming hundreds of thousands of fans from around the world– a World Cup offers broad entertainment value.But is this all just fleeting emotion? Given the considerable costs (estimated at USD 12bn, or roughly0.7% of Russia’s 2017 nominal GDP), we lookat the factors that can make the tournament asuccess, from an economic perspective.Tilmann Kolb, analystBased on applications for tickets,around half of total demand is comingfrom non-domestic fans. Assuming anallocation of tickets similar to the showof interest and approximately 3.2mtickets overall, Russia should welcome1.6m international tourists throughoutthe tournament period. This amountsto ca. 6.5% of tourist arrivals in 2016,a ratio that can hardly be marked as anexceptional boom in tourism (for comparison: international arrivals pickedup by 5.6% from 2014 to 2015). Also,prior experience from similar events hasshown that such an event can lead todisplacements of regular tourism – theexcitement for football is not shared byeveryone alike.Of course, domestic tourism plays arole as well. According to the WorldTravel & Tourism Council, domestic visitors spent around three times more forbusiness and leisure trips than foreign-13

Investing and footballers in 2016. Preparations for the eventthat at the same time render domesticdestinations more attractive to residents would benefit the economy, asspending on tourism boosts domesticconsumption and remains within thecountry.Naturally, investments and upgradesaround the event are targeted towarda smooth deployment of the event,including construction and refurbishment of stadiums, ensuring availabilityof accommodation, and transport linksto the different venues. For a lastingimpact, investments should have a productive life that outlasts the festivities.In the case of Russia, the world footballgoverning council’s evaluation of theRussian bid already attested the exis-Investing and footballtence of dedicated local transport tostadiums, as well as the connectionsbetween main cities. A significantimprovement of so far underdevelopedregions and cities with respect to logistics is therefore not among the benefitsfor Russia. Still, upgrades to transportlinks, for example of airports, may havea longer lasting impact, even thoughthe funds invested in aviation infrastructure in recent years have notalways seemed to be specifically forRussia’s role as a host.The direct effect of the tournament isfelt more with regards to the construction of stadiums, most of which havebeen built only recently. The value ofnew stadiums however depends ontheir ability to continuously drawSt. Petersburg / iStock14Investing in emerging markets Special editionKaliningrad / Gettyimagescrowds in future. The example of theArena da Amazônia in Brazil, one ofthe stadiums of the previous event, tellsa cautionary tale. Built at a cost of several hundred million USD, local teamscan hardly fill the 40,000 seats, and itnow mostly serves for small scaleevents, including weddings, accordingto media reports. Given the considerable costs of building and maintainingnew stadiums, the question also arisesif there aren’t better uses for publicfunds. While it is notoriously difficult toassess these opportunity costs, we present several areas for improvement –and in need of funds – in our “Investing in Russia” section of this report.The winner of the tournament will beknown on 15 July. But a final assessment of the economic benefits for Russia will only be known some yearslater. We doubt that the tournamentwill boost the Russian economy in asignificant way, given the very eventspecific related, one-time spending forconstruction and tourism receipts. Alonger lasting effect could be hopedfor by raising Russia’s brand value witha welcoming, peaceful, and fun sporting event. Unfortunately, years ofefforts and funds can be lost in aheartbeat when it comes to reputation,as recent geopolitical tensions show.Investing in emerging markets Special edition15

Investing and footballInvesting and footballAnd the winner is Germany, Brazil, or Spain. Thelikelihood of one of these threeteams winning is 60%, according to our calculations. Whatdo they have in common? Anumber of factors which tendto be reliable indicators of howwell a team will be doing during the tournament.Michael BolligerHead Emerging Market Asset AllocationFirst, they are the top three teamsaccording to the so called Elo rating.The Elo rating is an objective measureof team strength. It also looks at howwell a team has played in the past, butunlike other ratings, victories versusstronger teams will improve the ratingby more than wins versus weakeropponents. Similarly, more importantmatches count more than friendlygames. It is one of the most importantindicators to explain the likelihood ofsuccess at the World Cup.Third, they successfully participated inprevious tournaments. They all havewon the tournament before. Since1930, they’ve won 10 out of 20 competitions and they rank above mostothers when we count the number ofprevious participations. Brazil is theonly nation that has participated inevery single tournament since 1930,and also holds the record as a five-timechampion.Controlling for these factors, plus theadvantage of the home nation in thecase of Russia, we calibrate a statisticalmodel using the results from the previous five tournaments. With this model,we estimate the most likely outcome ofthe upcoming matches. In this context,also in football a common disclaimerapplies: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Many roads lead to MoscowSecond, they look back to a successfulqualification. Germany won eachmatch, Spain didn’t lose, and Brazil lostonly its first game against Chile back inOctober 2015.For each team, several ways lead tothe Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, thevenue where the final will take placeon 15 July. The first two teams fromeach group qualify for the next round.Hence, depending on who will be firstand second in each group, the pairingsin the round of 16 and beyond canlook completely different. Althoughour model predicts the outcome of a16Investing in emerging markets Special editiongiven game, it still leaves room forerror. And some matches are very closecalls; the likelihood for the strongerteam to win can be only a bit higherthan 50%.Fig. 2A mixed bagAverage Elo ranking of each group, and range betweenthe team with the highest and lowest ratings2,2002,100Fig. 2 shows the average Elo ratingfor each group and the dispersionbetween the best and the weakestteams. Group A, with Uruguay, Russia,Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, has the lowest average rating, and a high dispersion. Uruguay is set to secure the topspot in this group, and Russia is themain candidate for second place, inpart thanks to its status as the hostnation. Similarly, our model suggestsGermany and Brazil are likely to triumph in Groups F and E, respectively,as their opponents do not appear to bea match for those two champions. Onthe other hand, the teams in Group H,Colombia, Japan, Poland, and Senegal,are all ranked fairly close and althoughour model predicts Colombia shouldwin, followed by Poland, our abilityto predict the outcome of Group H islower than in any other group. Similarly, Groups C and D have strong leaders, France and Argentina, respectively,and two to three teams which are fairlyclose together.To account for the many differentroads to the final, we conduct whatstatisticians call a Monte Carlo simulation. What might sound fancy to somereaders is in practice quite simple: Instead of mapping out all the differ-Investing in emerging markets Special edition2,0001,9001,8001,7001,6001,500Group Group Group Group Group Group Group GroupABCDEFGHRangeAverageSource: World Football Elo Ratings, UBS, April 2018ent constellations, we draw a largenumber of random variables and usethese to bring in a random componentto our calculations and to simulate thechampionship. A better team is stillmore likely to win than its lowerranked opponent, but this is sport,and upsets DO happen. After we’verepeated this again and again, we endup with the results of 10,000 virtualtournaments. We then simply counthow many times each team won,made it to the semis, or was alreadyeliminated in the group stage. Table 1lists the results from this exercise forall 32 participating teams.17

Investing and footballInvesting and footballGermany, Brazil, and Spain mostlikely to win Table 1And the winner is Simulated likelihood of each team to advance through the tournament (in %)Winner landCroatiaSouth KoreaDenmarkAustraliaMoroccoJapanEgyptTunisiaCosta RicaSaudi 315.914.514.86.8According to our simulations, Germany, Brazil, and Spain have the highest likelihood to win the tournament.Germany and Brazil are set for an easystart, while Spain will have to hit theground running if they are to beatPortugal, the current European champions, in its opening game. From there,the going will get tougher for Spainand Brazil, who will possibly faceArgentina and England, respectively,in the quarterfinals. Both are formerchampions. Germany, however, mightface Belgium, another strong, young,Investing in emerging markets Special edition but watch England, France,Belgium, and Argentina for surprisesOur simulations indicate that England,France, Belgium and Argentina stillhave a realistic chance of lifting thetrophy. Argentina’s fate will stronglydepend on the form of their star players in our view, which is an element ofuncertainty and hard to capture withour quantitative model. France shouldbe able to advance to the semi-final,How we’ve applied the insights from our investment processto the prediction of football matchesWe’ve applied the insights and tools from ourdaily work as investment strategists to predictthe likelihood of each team doing in the tournament. Below, we share the key insights.1. Be systematic. Not all of our predictions willbe right. Some games are hard to call andothers will simply end with a big surprise.But applying our framework to previoustournaments indicates that our model hasa high degree of accuracy. We face a similarsituation with our investment recommendations: Not all our calls are accurate. But byfollowing a systematic investment process,we aim to maximize the number of correctcalls and their magnitude.Source: UBS18and talented team, but De Rode Duivels (the Red Devils) have so far notshown their best form in big tournaments.Investing in emerging markets Special edition2. Separate the wheat from the chaff. We’vetested several different indicators beforeselecting a few variables that have workedbest in the past. Investors have to deal withan overwhelming flow of new informationeach day. Distinguishing between the dailynoise and important trends is crucial toavoid costly and needless portfolio reallocations.3. Set aside your emotions. By relying on aquantitative framework, we effectively putour emotions to one side. Although we prefer some teams over others, we strictly followed the predictions of the model. Quantitative signals also play an important role inour investment process. This assures thatthe qualitative aspects are not influenced byemotions or other behavioral traps.19

Investing and footballbut after the possible elimination ofPortugal, they might face Brazil,another top team. Similar to Belgium,England has a balanced team, but theirway to the semi-final leads throughBrazil.It is almost a given that the new champion will come from either Europe orLatin America. The likelihood of achampion from

Investing and football Investing and football 8 Investing in emerging marets e cial edition- Investing in emerging marets Special edition- 9 -67.7 C The roughly 500 residents of Oymyakon occupy the coldest inhabited place on the planet, where the temperature dropped to -67.7 C at its nadir in 1933. 29% Russia's citizens hold a high

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