SPOTLIGHT Ultra Luxury
Japan - March 2022S P OT L I G H TSavills ResearchTokyo Residential :Ultra LuxuryRetail sales in Beijing were up 4.4% year-on-year to RMB539.8 billion in 1H 2018
Tokyo Residential: Ultra LuxuryTokyo’s ultra-luxury marketgains further momentumSummary Tokyo’s ultra-luxury residentialmarket has grown on theback of the sector’s soundfundamentals. Japan’s stability has made thecountry a favourable avenue topreserve wealth. Large-scale redevelopmentprojects in the pipeline will addmore ultra-luxury units and raisethe top prices of the market tolevels equivalent to those seen inManhattan and London. The number of brandedresidences in Tokyo is likely toincrease going forward, andthis growth will accelerateespecially if other sectors, suchas offices,continue to faceuncertainty. Some future projects arelikely to change initial plans byreplacing some space originallymeant for offices with ultraluxury residences. While there are manydevelopments in thepipeline that are suitable toaccommodate ultra-luxuryunits, the success of eachproject will be also determinedby its ability to provide theexpected levels of service whilekeeping costs under control. Japan’s GDP growth perworking age population hasfared better than most of theother G7 nations over thelast two decades, providingevidence of the country’slong-term prospects. However,the negative impacts from theageing population have had alingering effect.INTRODUCTIONTokyo’s ultra-luxury residential market1has continued to grow on the back of theredevelopment seen in the city. Tokyo has seena slate of large redevelopment projects over thepast few years which have added new landmarksand improved city infrastructure. Over thenext decade, more projects are in store andwill continue to reshape the city’s physical andeconomic landscapes towards 2030 (please referto our Japan’s Prospects Towards 2030 report).The ultra-luxury residential segment isexpected to evolve further while Tokyo isundergoing this transformation. While themarket is still considered a niche one, it isexpanding. Indeed, before the pandemic, thetotal number of ultra-luxury units was around 50,but this figure has been steadily increasing. Thiscould be primarily attributed to the recent megasized developments in areas such as Toranomonand Azabudai. Moreover, with the ambiguityabout the office sector’s prospects, it is also apossibility that some space originally planned foroffices in new mixed-use towers will instead besold as ultra-luxury or branded residential units.Japan is home to one of the largest ultra-highnet-worth individual (UHNWI)2 populations,which provides a strong demand base for theultra-luxury market. Furthermore, overseasinvestors perceive the country as a suitableavenue for wealth mainly due to its economicand social stability, which have been especiallyattractive attributes during the pandemic.Although the world is gradually shifting towardsnormalcy from the pandemic, rising geopolitical1 While there is no single definition of ‘ultra-luxury’ in theindustry, for the purpose of this report, we will defineultra-luxury condominium units as those with sales prices at ormore than JPY1 billion.2 In this report, UHNWIs are individuals with over US 30million in net worth.tensions will likely lead to continued uncertainty.In addition, Japan has steadily evolved into aluxury travel destination, and this could also bea tailwind for the progress of the ultra-luxurymarket. Despite its rich history and culturethat appeal to many international visitors, thecountry was previously lacklustre in promotinginbound tourism. However, new initiatives bythe previous Abe administration, as well aswinning the right to host the 2020 Olympicschanged the country’s mindset, causing Japan toexperience explosive growth in inbound tourism,although this was halted by the pandemic. Aseries of new luxury hotels openings acrossJapan also illustrates the gradual developmentof the country’s luxury market. For instance,international hotel brands have been investing innew luxury hotels in Japan (please refer to JapanHospitality February 2022). The developmentof ultra-luxury residences and luxury hotels arelikely to have synergistic effects and solidifythe country’s status as a luxury destination.Moreover, the 2025 World Exposition, as well asthe planned development of the country’s firstintegrated resort (IR) in Osaka could be anotherboost for the ultra-luxury segment.TOKYO’S ULTRA-LUXURYRESIDENTIAL MARKETTokyo’s ultra-luxury residential market hasgrown over the past decade on the back of thecountry’s stability and resilience. Consideringthe high concentration of UHNWIs in Tokyo,it is likely that the demand for ultra-luxuryunits has always existed, but remaineddormant in the face of limited supply. Thislatent demand began to surface as somesupply came to the market.Considering that we define ultra-luxuryGRAPH 1: Top 10 Countries/regions by UHNWI Population, 2020United StatesChinaJapanGermanyCanadaFranceHong KongUnited 0,000120,000PEOPLESource Wealth-X, Savills Research & Consultancysavills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/2
Tokyo Residential: Ultra Luxuryresidential units as those with sales pricesat or more than JPY1 billion, only a smallfraction of the population, even amongstUHNWIs, could afford those units. To reducethe risk of developing ultra-luxury residentialunits and make them more feasible fordevelopers, they are often housed in residentialtowers where the majority of units are soldat more affordable prices, ensuring a steadiersupply. Although ultra-luxury units are outof reach even for the majority of UHNWIs,the size of the wealthy in Japan serves as anessential foundation for the sector.Indeed, according to a study by Wealth-X,Japan has the third largest number of UHNWIsin the world, only behind the U.S. and China.The same study shows that Tokyo ranks third,only behind New York and Hong Kong, whileOsaka ranks ninth. Despite the pandemic, thepopulation of UHNWIs has increased in Japanlargely due to the appreciation of asset prices.This has demonstrated the resilience of thewealthy during tough times.Many wealthy people are concentrated inTokyo, and this has helped to attract and retainluxury amenities and entertainment in thecity. For instance, Tokyo boasts 203 Michelinstarred restaurants according to the 2022Michelin guide, and maintains its status as thetop gourmet destination. Moreover, Tokyo hosts12 three-stared restaurants, four of which arelocated in Minato. As such, Tokyo is a desirablemarket for the ultra-luxury residential sector,and it is unsurprising that the size of the markethas been rapidly growing in recent years.Additionally, this sector has been buttressedby growing interest from overseas investors. Asexplained in the appendix, Japan’s resiliencyand stable prospects are especially attractiveduring uncertain times. The explosive growthof inbound tourism prior to the pandemic hasalso increased the number of amenities in thecountry that appeal to overseas UHNWIs.Although Tokyo’s ultra-luxuryresidential market is consideredrelatively new, it is growing rapidlyand has gained popularity over time.Indeed, some recent projects inthis sector have proven successful,illustrating that substantial demandexists for the right products. Currentdevelopments in the pipeline will addnew ultra-luxury units into the marketand likely raise the top prices of themarket to levels equivalent to thoseseen in Manhattan and London.NEW DEVELOPMENTSTokyo has seen a few additions of luxurycondominium towers in the past few yearsthat can house ultra-luxury units, many ofwhich are centred around Minato. The mostrecent one is Toranomon Hills ResidentialTower, which opened in early 2022. Thisproperty is rumoured to house a unit pricedwell over JPY10 billion - the most expensivecondominium unit in Japan.In 2023, the highly anticipated ToranomonAzabudai project is expected to further propelthe growth of the ultra-luxury residentialGRAPH 2: Top 10 Cities by UHNWI Population, 2020New YorkHong KongTokyoLos AngelesChicagoSan FranciscoParisWashington 000Source Wealth-X, Savills Research & Consultancy3market in Minato with plans to introduce 1,400residential units in its two main residentialtowers. Furthermore, the main 330-metretower of the project will house 91 hotel-brandedresidences affiliated with Aman on its topfloors. The most expensive unit is rumouredto be on the market for JPY20 billion - easilyexceeding the most expensive unit recordedto date. Comprehensive developments likethese have the necessary infrastructure andamenities prepared to ensure that high unitprices can be targeted. This small districtappears to keep setting new records forJapan’s most expensive residential unit.Another project likely to house ultra-luxuryunits is the Mita 1-Chome project. Theproject will be developed by Mitsui Fudosanand Mitsubishi Estate and is expected tobe completed in May 2025. The project willfeature multiple buildings with over 1,000residential units. Given the size of thedevelopment, the large players involved,and the prime location, it is likely that thedevelopment will feature ultra-luxury units,adding to Minato’s stock and solidifying theward’s status as a premier residential area.There are some developments outsideof Minato as well. For instance, MARQOmotesando One, which was developed byBPEA Real Estate, is in Shibuya and wascompleted in November 2021. However, whilethe site’s proximity to Harajuku, Shibuya,and Omotesando can be attractive, theneighbourhood is not typically considered tobe a luxury residential area. Additionally, in2020, The Kita was also built near Kitasando, anarea slightly north of Harajuku. The architectof the project is Kengo Kuma, who designed
Tokyo Residential: Ultra Luxurythe Japan National Stadium for the Tokyo 2020Olympics. By The Kita, Park Court Jingu KitasandoThe Tower is also under construction and slatedfor completion in 2023.Elsewhere, Mitsubishi Estate is reported to haveacquired the negotiation rights to purchase a portionof the land occupied by the British Embassy in Tokyoand seems to be evaluating the possibility of buildingultra-luxury condominiums on the site. Althoughthe details have not been revealed, considering itsprime location directly west of the imperial palace,the project could potentially see condominiums ofvery high calibre built on the site. Furthermore, whilenot technically a condominium, Mitsubishi Estatealso plans to add about 50 rental residential unitson some of the high floors in Torch Tower, which isexpected to be the tallest building in Japan after itscompletion in 2027. The rents for the most expensiveunits are likely to be well over JPY5 million a month comparable to other ultra-luxury residences.Beyond the capital, Osaka has also seen somedevelopments in the luxury sector. In 2024, TokyoTatemono and Hotel Properties Limited are expectedto complete the One Dojima Project, which comprisesthe 466-unit Brillia Tower and the 178-room FourSeasons Hotel Osaka. The development site isproximate to Umeda and should benefit from theother redevelopment projects around the area.BRANDED RESIDENCESBranded residences are still new in Japan, butthe concept is gaining popularity. The highlyanticipated opening of Aman Residences Tokyonext year and many other mixed-use developmentsin the near future that are considered suitableto accommodate ultra-luxury residences havegarnered a large amount of interest. Currently, afew examples can be found in Niseko and Kyoto.For instance, LOFT Niseko, affiliated with YOO,opened in 2014 in Niseko as the first YOO projectin Japan, and features four loft-style residentialunits. Additionally, Park Hyatt Niseko HanazonoResidences was completed in 2019 and comprises113 residential units on a 24,000 sq m site in Niseko.Market rumours suggest that a studio of about 70sq m was priced for about JPY150 million while athree-bedroom of about 150 sq m was priced forabout JPY550 million. Furthermore, Aman Niseko is awellness resort slated for opening in 2023, which willfeature 31 detached residential units along with 30hotel guestrooms. The property also features multiplerestaurants, a spa, and facilities where residents canengage in nature-related activities.On a separate note, overseas investors fromregions such as Hong Kong, China, Australia, andSingapore have reportedly been especially activein acquiring properties in Hokkaido. They haveremained active during the pandemic with theexpectation tourists returning after the pandemic.One example of a branded-residencedevelopment outside of Niseko is Four SeasonsKyoto, an exclusive property located inHigashiyama, Kyoto. The property opened inOctober 2016 and features 57 luxury residentialunits along with 123 hotel units, a spa, a gym, apool, as well as a 10,000 sq m Japanese garden. Asof March 2022, some units in this project appear tobe listed for close to JPY30 million per tsubo.savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/As indicated in the examples above, brandedresidences in Japan were generally developed in areasthat are considered tourist destinations. This is notsurprising considering that potential buyers of theseproperties would already own primary homes, andthese branded residences were mainly purchasedas a place to spend their leisure time. However, theaforementioned Aman Residences Tokyo is likely tobe a game changer as it will be the first urban brandedresidence property in the heart of Tokyo, and theproject is rumoured to be getting a lot of attention.The success of Aman Residences Tokyo should sparkfurther interest, leading to more developments ofbranded residences in central Tokyo.END OF THE OFFICE-CENTRED SUPERSTRUCTURETokyo saw a surge of large-scale developmentsleading to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, and willhave more to come towards 2030. These largescale, mixed-use projects will help the city’stransformation, and introduce new landmarksand city amenities. However, the environmentsurrounding the real estate market has changedsignificantly in recent years, which may have madesome adjustments to initial project plans necessary.Many developers have been wary about thelarge wave of office supply in central Tokyo behindthe scenes, especially on top of the decliningpopulation of Japan. However, the reality is thatthe accelerated urbanisation, and incrementsin the working population due to higher labourparticipation rates of female and elderly workershave helped to fill office space. On the other hand,the pandemic has changed the prospects of theoffice sector and the concerns by developers havebecome more serious. In the future, it might not beas easy to fill large floors at very high office rents.Specifically, some office space planned for thosedevelopments in the pipeline could be excessivegiven the current market size and office trends.Therefore, some of that space may be replaced withother uses. For example, according to its originalannouncement, Torch Tower plans to offer about60,000 of office space tsubo when completed in 2027.Considering that the total Grade A office stock inChiyoda is currently about 1 million tsubo, this willbe a sizable addition. The current workstyle shifttoward hybrid or remote work also adds some riskto the future demand prospects for offices.Given the above, replacing office space with otheruses such as ultra-luxury condominiums appears tobe an attractive and viable option, especially giventhe robust demand for luxury housing. Since thepandemic began, people have been spending moretime at home, and consequently saving more to someextent. This lifestyle change has led to heightenedhousing demand particularly for high-end properties,overall resulting in asset prices rising on a globallevel. Japan is no exemption, although the impacts ofthe pandemic have been relatively milder.Some ultra-luxury condominiums units have beensold for well more than JPY20 million per tsubo,suggesting that selling some floors as ultra-luxurycondominiums makes financial sense. For instance,the portion of Kamiyacho Trust Tower sold to MoriTrust Sogo REIT was appraised at JPY15.6 billionas of September 2021, which is about JPY14 millionon a per-tsubo basis. Although offices used to be4considered less risky than ultra-luxury residences,if the ultra-luxury market continues to growand mature, more developers are likely to startconsidering them as essential components of theirprojects. Furthermore, the ultra-luxury residentialmarket will also help other relevant sectors thatcater to UHNWIs, such as retail and hotels.OUTLOOKOverall, there is a growing amount of evidence thatthere is demand for ultra-luxury residences in Japan,and this has helped the ultra-luxury residentialmarket grow at a rapid pace. Some of the large-scalemixed-use projects in the pipeline are expectedto add more units in this category, which shouldexpand the market size and push top prices evenhigher. While many of these developments are stillconcentrated in Minato, there are some examplesoutside of the ward. Going forward, the types ofunits on offer will also be more diverse, includinglow-rise properties and branded residences.The world is gradually returning to normalcy,and international travel has been slowly resuming.While the reopening of international travel ona large scale still appears out of sight, luxurytravel should come back much earlier. This timelyresurgence in luxury travel should further fueldemand in the luxury sector and help Japansolidify its status as a luxury travel destination.The high concentration of ultra-wealthy people inTokyo and the stability of Japan’s long-term prospectsmake it attractive to overseas buyers, and are factorsthat support the growth of this sector. Although Japanhas its own issues such as an ageing population, theyremain manageable overall. Japan’s rich culture isanother attractive attribute, and the growth of theluxury hotel market should serve as a tailwind for theultra-luxury residential sector.Nevertheless, this sector comes with significantchallenges - the pool of potential buyers is very limited,and they are highly selective and particular aboutthe services expected. Indeed, some new propertieson the market appear to be struggling to find buyers.On the other hand, demand for exceptional propertiesis strong despite their high prices.One crucial factor that will determine the successof an ultra-luxury property is its ability to provideexpected quality service. Even within ultra-luxuryresidences, different levels of service will berequired depending on the price level for the unit.The capability of management in catering the rightlevel of service to different occupants while keepingcosts under control will be essential, and it will taketime to attain an optimal balance between the two.Going forward, the market is likely to keepgrowing as Tokyo continues to transform throughredevelopment. Presently, the two major developersleading the ultra-luxury sector are Mori Building andMitsui Fudosan. However, as the market matures anda proof of concept has been established for the sector,the market should become more diverse with moreplayers and products, eventually leading to Tokyobecoming an established market. Furthermore, asthe world faces stiff headwinds of uncertainty, Tokyomight further gain popularity as a place to preservewealth. In the long run, events such as the WorldExpo and the opening of the integrated resort mayalso help showcase the country’s potential.
Tokyo Residential: Ultra LuxuryAppendixGRAPH 3: GDP per Working Age Population, 2000 to 2020*JapanCanadaFranceGermanyItalyUnited KingdomUnited States140GDP Index: 2000 1001351301251201151101051009590Source World Bank, Savills Research & Consultancy*Using the data and provided by the World Bank as defined as follows: Dollar figures for GDP were convertedfrom domestic currencies using 2015 official exchange rates before being indexed, and working age refers tothose between 18-64 years old.GRAPH 4: Median Wealth per Adult, 2020250,000200,000US 150,000100,00050,0000Source Credit Suisse Global wealth report 2021, Savills Research & ConsultancyGRAPH 5: Fertility Rate of Select Major Economies, 1990 to 2019JapanFranceUnited KingdomBrazilGermanyUnited 0Source World Bank, Savills Research & Consultancy5LONG TERM PROSPECTS OF JAPANJapan has gained undisputed popularity as atourist destination. On the other hand, thoseconsidering the purchase of ultra-luxuryproperties may question the long-termprospects of its economy with the ageing andshrinking population. However, upon takinga closer look, Japan’s economic performanceand environment present it as a suitableplace to store wealth.To begin, Japan is a developed countrywell known for its overall stability. Itscitizens coexist with minimal political andsocial divisions, unlike many countries inthe west. Indeed, Japan has enjoyed a steadyinflow of foreign capital seeking stableinvestments in the real estate market dueto the sense of stability it provides and theattractive funding options available.Going forward, the global interest rateenvironment may have a significant impacton the mid-term prospects of the world,including Japan. The strong real estatemarket worldwide has been supported bythe low interest rates maintained by centralbanks across the globe. Presently, centralbanks are worried about historically highinflation rates, which is likely to triggercontinuous interest rate hikes.However, looking at world demographictrends, many countries, even China andIndia, are or will soon be characterized byan ageing population and a subsequentlydeclining population. This ageing populationtrend has caused savings to rise, andconsequentially an increase in investmentvolumes from pension managers. Overall,many major economies around the world arelikely to increase their record-low interestrates to prevent overheating in the marketand counter inflation. However, theseincrements are expected to be mild becauseof saving glut stemming from the ageingdemographic across the globe.When considering Japan’s prospects, thecountry’s ageing population is admittedly aproblem, and causes worry for its economicoutlook. On the other hand, Japan’s GDPgrowth per working age population has faredbetter than most of the other G7 nationsover the last two decades. This suggeststhat the economy has been performing welloverall, although negative impacts from theageing population have a lingering effect.Furthermore, it should be noted that Japan’sspending on social benefits per elderlyperson has decreased over the past decade.Indeed, spending on pensions were reduceddue to reforms made to the national pensionlaw in 2012.
Tokyo Residential: Ultra LuxuryGRAPH 6: Percentage of World Population Above 65 Years of Age, 1990 to 2020% OF WORLD POPULATION ABOVE 65 Y.O.10.09.59.08.58.07.57.06.56.05.55.0Source World Bank, Savills Research & ConsultancyJapan has also made additional plans likedecreasing spending on medical insuranceand increasing the retirement age to makespending practices more sustainable in thelong term. From 2022, for example, elderlyindividuals above the age of 75 that meet aminimum income threshold have to bear20% of medical costs, up from 10%. Whilethere should be challenges going forward,Japan seems to be reasonably preparedfor them. Indeed, at over US 120,000,the median amount of wealth per adult inJapan is high, meaning that the country andmany of its citizens should be able to bracethemselves for tougher times ahead.Overall, Japan has many pull-factorsas world-class tourist destination with asustainable economic base. Therefore, thecountry appears suitable as a place for ultrahigh net worth individuals to store wealth.GRAPH 7: Social Benefit per Elderly Person in Japan*, FY2001 to FY20193,7003,650JPY ce Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,Savills Research & Consultancy*Defined as older than 65 years of age.For more information about this report, please contact usSavills JapanSavills ResearchChristian ManciniCEO, Asia Pacific(Ex. Greater China) 81 3 6777 5150cmancini@savills.co.jpTetsuya KanekoManaging Director, Head ofResearch & Consultancy, Japan 81 3 6777 5192tkaneko@savills.co.jpYoshihiro KannoSenior Manager, Research &Consultancy, Japan 81 3 6777 5275ykanno@savills.co.jpSimon SmithRegional Head of Research& Consultancy, Asia Pacific 852 2842 4573ssmith@savills.com.hkSavills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK,continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informativepurposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort hasbeen made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any formis prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.savills.co.jp/insight-and-opinion/6
of ultra-luxury residences and luxury hotels are likely to have synergistic effects and solidify the country's status as a luxury destination. Moreover, the 2025 World Exposition, as well as the planned development of the country's first integrated resort (IR) in Osaka could be another boost for the ultra-luxury segment. TOKYO'S ULTRA-LUXURY
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THE NEWS LEADER IN LUXURY MARKETING. PAGE 3 CONTENTS EDITOR’S NOTE: Focused marketing continues to . Luxury Daily is the world’s leading luxury marketing and retail publication. The Napean-owned franchise comprises Luxury Daily, LuxuryDaily.com, the Luxury Daily newsletter, Luxury FirstLook, Luxury . A big thank-you to industry experts .
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The Evolution of Luxury: Brand Management of Luxury Brands, Old and New RayeCarol Cavender ABSTRACT This qualitative study contributed to the growing body of research in luxury brand
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