Cost Of Floating Offshore Wind Energy Using New England Aqua Ventus .

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Cost of Floating Offshore WindEnergy Using New England AquaVentus Concrete SemisubmersibleTechnologyWalter Musial, Philipp Beiter, and Jake NunemakerNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryProduced under direction of the University of Maine bythe National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) underTechnical Services Agreement number TSA-19-01173.NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Energy Efficiency & Renewable EnergyOperated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLCThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable EnergyLaboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308Strategic Partnership Project ReportNREL/TP-5000-75618January 2020

Cost of Floating Offshore WindEnergy Using New England AquaVentus Concrete SemisubmersibleTechnologyWalter Musial, Philipp Beiter, and Jake NunemakerNational Renewable Energy LaboratorySuggested CitationMusial, Walter, Philipp Beiter, and Jake Nunemaker. 2020. Cost of Floating Offshore WindEnergy Using New England Aqua Ventus Concrete Semisubmersible Technology.Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. sti/75618.pdf.NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Energy Efficiency & Renewable EnergyOperated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLCStrategic Partnership Project ReportNREL/TP-5000-75618January 2020This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable EnergyLaboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.National Renewable Energy Laboratory15013 Denver West ParkwayGolden, CO 80401303-275-3000 www.nrel.govContract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

NOTICEThis work was supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for SustainableEnergy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308, and theUniversity of Maine under TSA-19-01173. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views ofthe DOE or the U.S. Government.This report is available at no cost from the National RenewableEnergy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are availablefree via www.OSTI.gov.Cover Photo by Gary Norton: NREL 27462.NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content.

AcknowledgmentsThis study was funded by the University of Maine, and the analysis was conductedindependently by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The key contributors from theUniversity of Maine were Habib Dagher and Anthony Viselli, who provided component costdata and engineering analysis related to the Aqua Ventus floating semisubmersible substructure.The authors would like to thank the following contributors from the National Renewable EnergyLaboratory who provided helpful comments and review: Matt Shields, Amy Robertson, EricLantz, and Brian Smith. In addition, the contributions of Dan Beals from the U.S. Department ofEnergy are greatly appreciated. Editing was provided by Sheri Anstedt (National RenewableEnergy Laboratory). The content of this report and any omissions are the sole responsibility ofthe authors.ivThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

List of WMWhNRELO&MOpExORCAPPATWhUMaineWEAyrannual energy productionAdvanced Technology Demonstrationcapital expenditurescommercial operation dateU.S. Department of EnergyTechnical University of Denmarkfixed charge elized cost of energymetermeter per secondmegawattmegawatt-hourNational Renewable Energy Laboratoryoperation and maintenanceoperational expendituresOffshore Regional Cost Analyzerpower purchase agreementterawatt-hourUniversity of Mainewind energy areayearvThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Executive SummaryThe State of Maine (Maine) has a technical electricity generation potential from offshore wind ofup to 411 terawatt-hours/year (Musial et al. 2016a). Up to 88% of the state’s offshore windgeneration potential is in deep waters, thereby requiring floating offshore wind technology toaccess this resource. Given competing coastal uses, it is likely all the viable offshore windenergy resource is over waters deeper than 60 meters. However, relative to the 11.21 terawatthours of electric consumption by Maine (consumed in 2017), the technical offshore windresource potential is abundant (Energy Information Administration 2019).This report provides cost, technological, and resource data for floating offshore wind technologydeployment at a hypothetical reference site representative of conditions in the Gulf of Maine.This report is intended for stakeholders who want to understand more about the New EnglandAqua Ventus (Aqua Ventus) project costs as well as those who are interested in the general costtrends of the floating offshore wind industry. It builds on previous reports written by the NationalRenewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) between 2015 and 2019, including recent studiesassessing the levelized cost of energy and resource of floating offshore wind technology inCalifornia (Musial et al. 2016) and Oregon (Musial et al. 2019b), and data from recent cost andtechnology developments in the European fixed-bottom offshore wind market. The primarysource for offshore wind resource information is Musial et al. (2016a). The primary modelingassumptions used in NREL’s Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer can be found in Beiter et al.(2016 and 2017) but recent updates are documented in this report.This study focuses on the Aqua Ventus technology developed at the University of Maine(UMaine) over the past decade, which recognized that new offshore floating wind technologywas needed to harness the state’s predominantly deep-water offshore wind resource. The AquaVentus project was first proposed and the technology development was funded under the U.S.Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Technology Demonstration program (DOE 2019;UMaine 2019). In 2014, the Maine Public Utilities Commission approved a term sheet betweenCentral Maine Power Co. and the New England Aqua Ventus I project. The term sheet requiresCentral Maine Power Co. to buy the power generated by the demonstration project at abovemarket rates for a period of 20 years. In January 2018, the Maine Public Utilities Commissionreopened the 2014 contract to reevaluate the terms, accounting for changes in energy marketssince 2014. However, in June 2019, Governor Janet Mills signed legislation directing the PublicUtilities Commission to approve the contract for New England Aqua Ventus I and a powerpurchase agreement was subsequently awarded in November 2019 (Turkel 2019; Shumkov2019).Because floating wind technology is still in a nascent stage of development, questions persistabout the cost of floating wind and how it might evolve as the industry matures. Previous NRELstudies estimated the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) 1 to be 77/megawatt-hour (MWh) for a1,000-megawatt (MW) offshore wind project in the Massachusetts wind energy area (south ofMartha’s Vineyard) using 10-MW wind turbines (Moné et al. 2016). This unpublished study wasintended for internal decision-making by UMaine as part of their reporting to DOE for theLCOE reflects the total cost of generating a unit of electricity and is commonly expressed in dollars per megawatthour ( /MWh). LCOE is typically calculated for the expected lifetime of the offshore wind electricity-generatingplant.1viThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Advanced Technology Demonstration program and was focused on the cost of the original twoturbine 12-MW Aqua Ventus I project. It did not provide a rigorous analysis for the commercialscaling of the Aqua Ventus technology. The purpose of this report is to focus on the commercialscaling of Aqua Ventus I and to update the LCOE cost estimates with the latest information onfloating offshore wind technology costs.This report describes the resource and cost of energy reduction potential for commercial floatingoffshore wind at a project scale of 600 MW at a hypothetical site with conditions representativeof the Gulf of Maine: an average annual wind speed of 9.3 meters per second at a 90-meterelevation. Costs were estimated for four years: 2019, 2022, 2027, and 2032 (commercialoperation date) using NREL’s Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer.The LCOE cost for floating wind in Maine, which was determined by using the Aqua Ventussubstructure costs and technology assumptions provided by UMaine, and NREL turbine andbalance of system assumptions, is estimated to decline to 74/MWh by 2027 and 57/MWh by2032. 2 These costs are lower than the previous 2016 NREL estimate of 77/MWh for a 1,000MWAqua Ventus wind power plant. Lower costs in this 2019 study are attributed to recenttechnological and commercial improvements in the global industry that are applicable to theturbine design, turbine scaling effects on the balance of station, lower financing terms, and lowercosts for the floating platform, array, and export cables. Commercial-scale plant costs (in termsof dollars per kilowatt) modeled for the Aqua Ventus technology were found to be approximately5 times lower than the pilot-scale demonstration project cost that was originally estimated at 300/MWh. This difference in costs illustrates the huge scaling advantage of a 600-MW projectover a small 12-MW project, as well as the rapidly advancing technology and market conditionsthat are enabling offshore wind deployment to compete globally.Note that NREL estimated technology trends for larger turbines that defined this cost trajectory, resulting in 57/MWh costs by 2032. However, if market forces accelerate technology development, which they often do, thesecost trends could also be accelerated. The 57/MWh cost by 2032 assumes that a 15-MW turbine with a full-sizerotor will not be available until 2030.2viiThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Table of ContentsAcknowledgments . ivList of Figures . viiiList of Tables . viii1 Introduction . 12 Maine Offshore Wind Resource . 63 ORCA Cost Model Description . 843.13.23.33.43.53.6Cost of Energy. 8NREL’s Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer . 9Cost Model Enhancements . 9Application of Fixed-Bottom Market Data . 10Floating-Specific Costs . 13Temporal Cost Reductions . 134.14.24.34.44.5Turbine Technology Assumptions . 15Floating Platform Technology Assumptions . 17Balance of System . 19Finance Cost Assumptions . 19Site Characteristics and Energy Calculations . 20Aqua Ventus Modeling and Site Assumptions . 155 Cost Modeling Results . 226 Conclusions . 26References . 27Appendix A – Cost Data . 31Appendix B – Loss Assumptions . 34List of FiguresFigure 1. Location for University of Maine’s floating Aqua Ventus I demonstration project plannedfor deployment in 2022 . 2Figure 2. University of Maine’s 1:8-scale prototype of their floating Aqua Ventus technologydeployed in Penobscot Bay in 2013 . 2Figure 3. Offshore wind technical energy potential by average wind speed for the state of Maine . 6Figure 4. Offshore wind technical energy potential by state for water depths greater than 60 m(red) and less than 60 m (blue). 7Figure 5. Adjusted strike prices from U.S. and European offshore wind auctions. 12Figure 6. Offshore wind turbine power curves corresponding to 2019, 2022, 2027, and 2032 . 17Figure 7. Massachusetts WEA showing the annual average wind speed in 0.10-m/s increments. 20Figure 8. LCOE trajectory for Aqua Ventus floating offshore wind technology at reference site . 22Figure 9. CapEx over time for the Aqua Ventus wind cost study reference site. 24Figure 10. OpEx over time for the Aqua Ventus cost study reference site. 24Figure 11. Net capacity factors over time for the Aqua Ventus wind cost study reference site . 25List of TablesTable 1. UMaine Summary of LCOE for Floating Wind Energy Systems . 4Table 2. Maine’s Offshore Wind Technical Resource Potential by Energy and Capacity (Musial etal. 2016) . 7Table 3. Common LCOE Categories Between Commercial-Scale Fixed-Bottom and FloatingOffshore Wind Systems . 11Table 5. Technical Modeling Assumptions for Floating Wind Turbines and Substructures . 16Table 7. Summary of Key Inputs for the Aqua Ventus Cost Analysis Scenarios . 21Table 8. Summary of Results for Aqua Ventus Cost Analysis Scenarios . 22viiiThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Table A.1. Summary of Cost Data for Aqua Ventus with a 10-MW Turbine . 31Table A.2. Summary of Cost Data for Aqua Ventus with a 12-MW Turbine . 32Table A.3. Summary of Cost Data for Aqua Ventus with a 15-MW Turbine . 33Table B.1 Loss Assumptions for Aqua Ventus Technology Scenarios . 34ixThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

1 IntroductionThe purpose of this analysis is to estimate the future cost of commercial floating wind in theNew England Outer Continental Shelf using engineering data from the New England AquaVentus (Aqua Ventus) project under development at the University of Maine (UMaine), coupledwith technology trend and cost data for future floating wind technology up to 2032 (commercialoperation date [COD]). The analysis was performed at the National Renewable EnergyLaboratory (NREL) and funded by UMaine.Another objective was to assess the cost differences due to project scale. Previous studies havefocused on the cost of the pilot-scale 12-megawatt (MW) Aqua Ventus I project as part of theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Technology Demonstration (ATD) program buthave not provided a full treatment of the technology at commercial scale. Because floating windtechnology is still in a nascent stage of development, questions persist about the cost of floatingwind and how it might evolve as the industry matures. Increased project scale has beendocumented to significantly reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), especially whentransitioning from pilot scale (10 to 50 MW) to utility scale (250 to 1,000 MW) (Maness 2017;Musial et al. 2019b). For UMaine, the need to explore benefits from project scaling is relevantbecause prospective investors need assurance from the pilot-scale project that the technologycosts will be competitive at a commercial scale. This report provides more detailed informationabout how the Aqua Ventus technology unit costs are likely to change for commercial projectscales of 600 MW or greater.In the United States, more than 58% of the total technical offshore wind resource is in waterdepths greater than 60 meters (m), including most of the available resource off the coast ofMaine (Musial et al. 2016a). Globally, the development of floating offshore wind technology isevolving quickly but it is too early to identify a commercially dominant substructure type. TheAqua Ventus technology has significant attributes that may enable it to compete in this emergingmarket. At the end of 2018, there were seven floating offshore wind projects installed around theworld representing 44 MW of capacity. Four projects (34.5 MW) were installed in Europe andthree (9 MW) in Asia. There are an additional 14 pilot-scale projects representing 203 MW thatare currently under construction or have achieved either financial close or regulatory approval.Most of these projects are expected to be commissioned by 2022. Overall, the global pipeline forfloating offshore wind reached approximately 4,888 MW in the operational and developmentpipeline, with the commercial phase expected to commence near the 2025 timeframe (Musial etal. 2019a).UMaine plans to install the 12-MW pilot-scale Aqua Ventus I project as a demonstration of thenew Aqua Ventus floating wind technology. The original project plan called for two 6-MW windturbines to be installed on adjacent platforms. However, to maintain relevance with commercialindustry trends, the current plan for the Aqua Ventus demonstration project is to use a singleturbine in the range of 9.5 MW to 12 MW. As a primary feature, the demonstration wind powerplant will incorporate a novel full-scale concrete semisubmersible floating foundation developedat UMaine, which will be deployed at a test site off Monhegan Island, Maine, shown in Figure 1.1This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Figure 1. Location for University of Maine’s floating New England Aqua Ventus I demonstrationproject planned for deployment in 2022. Photo from UMaineIn 2013, UMaine demonstrated a 1:8-scale prototype of concrete floating foundation technology(Figure 2), and they applied the knowledge gained in designing, constructing, and deploying theprototype to the engineering efforts of the Aqua Ventus I project, which uses full-scale turbines(DOE 2019; UMaine 2019).Figure 2. University of Maine’s 1:8-scale prototype of their floating Aqua Ventus technologydeployed in Penobscot Bay in 2013. Photo from UMaine, NREL 27462UMaine and its partners have made significant progress on the engineering design of this conceptby focusing on commercial-scale manufacturing of the foundation and reducing costs. Theseconsiderations have led to significant reductions in the internal steel requirements and vastly2This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

improved manufacturability of the foundation. In 2014, the Maine Public Utilities Commissionapproved a term sheet between Central Maine Power Co. and the Maine Aqua Ventus project;under which Central Maine Power would buy electricity generated by the project for 20 years.In January 2018, the Maine Public Utilities Commission decided to reopen the 2014 contract andreevaluate the terms to account for possible changes in the energy markets since 2014, but inJune 2019, Governor Janet Mills signed legislation directing the Maine Public UtilitiesCommission to approve the contract for Maine Aqua Ventus, putting the project back on track(Turkel 2019). In November 2019, a power purchase agreement (PPA) was subsequentlyawarded (Shumkov 2019).Until recently, offshore wind activity in Maine was limited to the New England Aqua Ventus Idemonstration project (Musial et al. 2019). However, in June 2019, Governor Mills announcedthe creation of the Maine Offshore Wind Initiative, which will identify opportunities forcommercial offshore wind development in the Gulf of Maine. The initiative includes theformation of a regional intergovernmental task force among Maine, New Hampshire, andMassachusetts, which held their inaugural meeting on December 12, 2019. The outcome of thismeeting may lead the way for commercial development of floating wind in northern NewEngland (Turkel 2019).Potential investors and key stakeholders with an interest in commercial offshore floating windcan benefit from information provided in this report regarding Aqua Ventus costs and how theyare likely to change as the technology scales to larger project and turbine sizes. Moreover,quantifying commercial-scale floating offshore wind costs is necessary to provide insight tosupport permitting approvals and financing prior to development. In 2016, NREL conducted aninternal study to estimate the costs of the 12-MW pilot project, Aqua Ventus I, and preliminaryanalysis was included to estimate the cost of 1,000-MW commercial offshore wind projects,Aqua Ventus II and III, using 10-MW wind turbines (Moné et al. 2016). This study estimated acommercial LCOE of 77/megawatt-hour (MWh) for a reference site in the Massachusetts windenergy area (WEA) located south of Martha’s Vineyard, where water depths reach 65 m. Thislocation was used as a proxy for sites in the Gulf of Maine, which have similar wind speeds.However, the cost assumptions used to calculate LCOE in this unpublished report had a highdegree of uncertainty, and technology and market conditions have since become less speculative.For example, turbine size has a major impact in lowering the LCOE of offshore wind systems,and the 2016 study assumed that 10-MW turbines would be used; however, today we understandthat turbine capacities are likely to be 12 to 15 MW by 2027, which is when commissioning thefirst commercial project in Maine is assumed to be possible. This report provides updatedanalysis and a more detailed, publicly accessible record of the cost of commercial floating windin Maine.As a partner to UMaine and DOE under the ATD program, NREL performed several technoeconomic studies from 2015 to 2019 characterizing the economic potential for floating offshorewind as well as specific analysis of the Aqua Ventus technology (Beiter et al. 2016, 2017;Gilman et al. 2016; Moné et al. 2016; Musial 2018). These studies were motivated by DOE’smission to understand the potential impact of offshore wind on the U.S. energy supply and theneed to inform the research being conducted at UMaine under the ATD program (DOE 2019).3This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

In 2018, Musial published the major conclusions of these NREL reports in a summary papertitled, “Offshore Wind Resource, Cost, and Economic Potential in the State of Maine.” Thisreport provided a publicly available, compiled source of information on the cost of floating windin Maine. Table 1 is extracted from Musial (2018).Table 1. UMaine Summary of LCOE for Floating Wind Energy Systems 3Aqua Ventus IIIAtlantic Floating1,000-MW Project2030 COD(US 2015 /MWh)Aqua Ventus I(12 MW)(US 2015 /MWh)Aqua Ventus IIAtlantic 498-MWProject 2022 COD(US 2015 /MWh)Turbine CapitalCost*5938Balance of System*18157***Financial Costs*1016***Operation andMaintenance Cost**5015Total System LCOE300126Description******77*These categories are multiplied by the discount rate, insurance, warranty, and fees to obtain the LCOE.**This category is considered tax deductible.*** Data not available.The table compares the 12-MW Aqua Ventus I project to two scenarios in 2015. One scenariocompares the 12-MW Aqua Ventus I project to a 498-MW project using the same technology butincreasing in project scale only, and another scenario provides a comparison in which the 6-MWturbines were replaced by 10-MW turbines and the project’s scale was increased to 1,000 MW.As a result of project scale alone, this progression corresponded to changes in cost from 300/MWh to 126/MWh, and further decreases to 77/MWh when the technology wasupgraded to reflect technological progress for a projected 2030 timeframe. 4Since April 2016, when these preliminary cost studies were completed, offshore wind marketsand floating technologies have progressed at a rapid rate globally, and a large volume of newinformation for both fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind technology became available toassess LCOE using Aqua Ventus floating offshore wind technology with greater accuracy. Thisreport reflects updates to the NREL Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) model andanalysis methods for Aqua Ventus using the latest information available. The modifications tothe cost model are described in Section 3.3.Note that Aqua Ventus technology is used throughout the report but Aqua Ventus I is the name of the 12-MWpilot-scale project, and New England Aqua Ventus represents the commercial-scale technology.4In the 2016 study, Maine was found to have the highest economic potential. Further economic potential was foundin the following states (listed in descending order by the amount of economic potential): Massachusetts, RhodeIsland, Virginia, New Hampshire, New York, and Connecticut. A full treatment of this analysis can be found inBeiter et al. (2016) and Musial (2018).34This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

The remainder of this report covers: The general characteristics of the offshore wind resource in MaineA detailed description of the ORCA modelA description of the cost modeling assumptions for Aqua VentusA summary of the results of the Aqua Ventus cost analysis.5This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

2 Maine Offshore Wind ResourceMaine has some of the most energetic offshore wind resources in the United States. It has highaverage wind speeds and a large area in waters less than 1,000 m deep. Figure 3 shows that 90%of Maine’s wind resource exceeds 9 meters per second (m/s) at a 100-m elevation (Musial2018). 5 At a glance, Maine’s offshore wind resource is well positioned to serve its electric load,as well as possible electricity markets in adjacent states such as New Hampshire andMassachusetts.Figure 3. Offshore wind technical energy potential by average wind speed for the state of MaineA significant challenge in harnessing the wind resource in Maine is that 88% of the water area isat a depth greater than 60 m (Table 2), which is thought to be too deep for conventional fixedbottom offshore wind technology (e.g., monopiles or jacket substructures) to be economical. 6Table 2 breaks down the quantity of offshore wind resource in Maine (gigawatt-hours/year[GWh/yr]) by water depth.Average wind speed is the most critical parameter that determines energy production potential and capacity factor.Most of the shallow resource 60 meters (m) is located very near shore and may be unsuitable for commercialoffshore wind development because of potential conflicts with existing use and visual impacts. Approximately 14%of Maine’s offshore wind resource capacity (17,990 km2) is in state waters, with the remaining 86% of the viabletechnical resource (108,304 km2) in federal waters, under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Ocean EnergyManagement.566This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Table 2. Maine’s Offshore Wind Technical Resource Potential by Energy and Capacity (Musial etal. 2016a)Water Depth Range (m

Ventus project was first proposed and the technology development was funded under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Technology Demonstration program (DOE 2019; UMaine 2019). In 2014, the Maine Public Utilities Commission approved a term sheet between Central Maine Power Co. and the New England Aqua Ventus I project.

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