Journalism, Media And Technology Trends And Predictions 2017
I G I TA L N E W S P R O J E C T D I G I TA L N E W S P R O J E C T D I G I TA L N E W S P R O J E C T D I G I TA L N E WJOURNALISM, MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGYTRENDS ANDPREDICTIONS 2017NIC NEWMAN
CONTENTSAbout the Author1Acknowledgements1Executive Summary21.Looking Back at 201632.Key Trends and Predictions for 20177Fake News, Algorithms and Guarding Against the FilterBubble72.12.2Redefining Publishers’ Relationship with Platforms102.3Digital Advertising and Sustainable Business Models122.4Messaging Applications and News Bots152.5Voice as an Operating System and the Rebirth of Audio172.6Online Video and the Future of TV192.7Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality24Technology’s Unexpected Consequences273.1AI and Algorithms under Fire273.2Automation and a Jobless Future283.3CyberWars and Personal Security30What’s Next?314.1New Technology314.2Start-ups to Watch323.4.Postscript and Further Reading34Survey Methodology35
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017About the AuthorNic Newman is a Research Associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism and hasbeen lead author of the annual Digital News Report since 2012. He is also a consultant on digitalmedia, working actively with news companies on product, audience, and business strategies fordigital transition. He has produced a predictions paper for the last ten years. This is the second tobe published by the Reuters Institute.Nic was a founding member of the BBC News Website, leading international coverage as WorldEditor (1997–2001). As Head of Product Development he led digital teams, developing websites,mobile, and interactive TV applications for all BBC Journalism sites.AcknowledgmentsThe author is grateful for the input of 143 digital leaders from 24 countries who responded to asurvey around the key challenges and opportunities in the year ahead. Respondents came fromsome of the world’s leading traditional media companies as well as new digital born organisations.Survey input and answers helped guide some of the themes in this report and data has beenused throughout. Many quotes do not carry names or organisations, at the request of thosecontributors.The author is particularly grateful to a number of other experts who offered ideas and suggestionsby email: Kevin Anderson (ex Gannett executive), Paul Bradshaw (Birmingham City University),George Brock and Jane Singer (City University), Damian Radcliffe (University of Oregon), AdamTinworth (Digital Consultant), Tim Weber (Edelman), Kevin Hinde, Alfred Hermida (Universityof British Columbia), Douglas McCabe (Enders Analysis), Charlie Beckett (Polis), and RichardSambrook (Cardiff University).Also thanks to the team at the Reuters Institute for input and support including David Levy,Rasmus Kleis Nielsen, Annika Sehl, Alessio Cornia, Richard Fletcher and Antonis Kalogeropoulosas well as Alex Reid, Rebecca Edwards and Hannah Marsh.As with many predictions reports there is a significant element of speculation, particularly aroundspecifics and the paper should be read with this in mind. Having said that, any mistakes – factualor otherwise – should be considered entirely the responsibility of the author who can be heldaccountable at the same time next year.Published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism with the support of Google’s DigitalNews Initiative.1
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017Executive SummaryThis year’s key developments will centre on fears about how changing technology is affectingthe quality of information and the state of our democracy. The arrival of Donald Trump in theWhite House and elections in France and Germany will highlight the increasing power of newcommunication channels as traditional media continues to lose both influence and money.More widely there’ll be heated debate about the role and size of tech platforms and the extent towhich their activities should be regulated. Artificial Intelligence (AI) takes over from mobile as thehottest topic in technology, though the practical and ethical dilemmas around how it will be usedbecome ever more apparent through the year.More specifically A raft of initiatives over so called ‘fake news’ from both publishers and platforms fail torestore public trust. Fact-checking services move centre stage.We’ll see further job cuts and losses across the news industry. More papers in the US andEurope go out of business, slim down or become online-only.More focus on algorithmic accountability, the use of data for targeting, and the power oftechnology companies.We’ll see a backlash from publishers over Facebook Live as initial investments prove hard tosustain and monetise.Publishers force more people to sign-in/register for websites and apps as well as investingheavily in data to help deliver more personalised content and messaging.Expect widespread innovation with messaging apps, chat bots and the art of‘conversational journalism’.More of us will be talking to computers via voice driven personal assistants, like Amazon’sAlexa, Apple’s Siri and Google’s Assistant.Big year for audio/podcasts as Facebook rolls out social and live audio formats.There’ll be an explosion of mobile alerts for news, as the battle for the lockscreen heats up.We’ll see more experimentation with Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR), butresults continue to disappoint for news.Cyber-wars intensify along with the battles between governments and citizens over thelimits of personal surveillance.More politicians follow the lead of Donald Trump in using social media to define issues,break new policy and as a substitute for traditional media access.In our survey of 143 leading Editors, CEOs and Digital Leaders for this report 70% said worries over the distribution of fake/inaccurate news in social networks willstrengthen their position, while 46% say they are more worried about the role of platforms than last year56% say Facebook Messenger will be important or very important part of their offsite initiativesthis year. 53% say the same for WhatsApp and 49% for Snapchat33% of respondents from a newspaper background are more worried about their company’sfinancial sustainability than last year; just 8% are less worried(More data and comments from this survey throughout the report)2
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 20171. Looking Back at 2016This was a historic year, but not always in a goodway. Trump was elected, Brexit happened, therewere repeated terror attacks in Europe, Aleppowas turned to rubble and David Bowie died. Thesewere events that shook the world, but it was alsoa year in which the media itself became the news.Post-truth, the Oxford Dictionary’s word of the year,COMEDIAN JOHNreflects a world where “objective facts have become OLIVER BLOWS UP2016 ON TVless influential in shaping public opinion thanappeals to emotion”. Experts and commentators were denigrated and at least some the newsitself turned out to be not just biased but fake. BuzzFeed’s forensic uncovering of the mechanicsof this phenomenon1 marked giant steps for this emerging news brand and a huge statementtoo about how journalistic investigations are now increasingly about following and interrogatingdata.In sharp contrast, we saw intense soul-searching by traditional media over how they could havebecome so out of touch and how they missed/misjudged these stories – with trust amongst oldand young falling to historic lows (see chart).Figure1.1TrustinMassMedia,byAgeFigure 1.1 Trust in Mass Media, by Age%Greatdeal/Fairamountoftrust% Great deal/Fair amount of trustFor many this was evidence of the corrupting nature of the internet. Were media companiestoo distracted by trends and technology? Were they part of their own filter bubble? Didthey forget to talk to real people? But part of the analysis also reminded us of theRISJstructuralDigitalNewsand economic backdrop; how hollowed out journalism has become, particularly outsideReport2016metropolitan centres.A double-digit drop in print advertising revenues in many markets led to consolidation, job cutsand closures in the traditional media while it has become ever clearer throughout the year howbig tech platforms are able to leverage their scale to drive the majority of online advertisingrevenue. In the United States, almost all the growth (99%) in digital advertising went to cebook321/02016
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017or Facebook between the thirdquarter of 2015 and the sameperiod in 2016. Publishersended the year desperatelytrying to work out how they canmake money as we move fasterthan ever from print to digitaland from an internet of websitesto an internet of smartphoneapps and social platforms.US AdRevenuesQ3 2015Q3 2016GrowthShare ofGrowthGoogle 7.9 Billion 9.5 Billion 1.6 Billion54%Facebook 2.1 Billion 3.4 Billion 1.3 Billion45%Everyone Else 4.6 Billion 4.7 Billion 40 Million1%TOTAL 14.7 Billion 17.6 Billion 2.9 BillionSource:PJasonWC/IABKint (Digital Content Next) analysis based on PWC/IAB andSource:public data from Google and Facebook2One thing that became clear in 2016 is that these forces are not just affecting traditional media.We suggested in last year’s report that the gloss would soon start to come off new digital brandsand their sky-high stock market valuations – and so it proved. Mashable, a site that had justCOMEDIANJOHNOLIVERBLOWSUPraised 15 million, laid off 30 people. Digital pioneer Salon announced a new round of budget2016ONTVcuts and layoffs. Even BuzzFeed was reported to have downgraded its 2016 earning targetsby3a considerable margin. Meanwhile the perils of relying on Facebook’s fickle algorithms (posts bypublishers and brands were de-prioritised in June) were illustrated by the balance sheet of EliteDaily, the US based entertainment site owned by the Daily Mail. Its losses more than doubled asthe company wrote down its value by 25m,4 making it effectively worthless.Inevitably much of the blame forRISJDigitalNewjournalism’s woes, along with theReport2016trends toward fake and partisan news,has unfairly been laid at the door ofFacebook algorithms. A more specificCOMEDIANJOHNand articulate complaint came inOLIVERBLOWSUPSeptember with the intervention of2016ONTVEspen Egil Hansen, editor-in-chiefof Aftenposten, whose open letter toMark Zuckerberg called for greatertransparency and responsibility forunderstanding the context of whathappens on the network. A Facebookalgorithm had been unable to distinguish a Pulitzer Prize winning war photo from child d had removed Nick Ut’s iconic image. “You are the world’s mostpowerfulHansen.Facebook restored the image but the incident highlighted again hms in understanding complexity, nuance and cultural difference. While Zuckerberg continuesto insist that Facebook is not a media company, many of his employees have apparently started toquestion what its responsibilities might be beyond helping people stay connected.5 The year endedwith Facebook advertising for a highprofile Head of News. Google hasalso come under pressure for refusingto manually edit its search results toremove unintended consequences of itsauto-complete nce-in-election.html? r 4/google-democracy-truth-internet-search-facebook4
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017The move to distributed publishingIn last year’s Predictions we argued that the most significant development of the year wouldbe the rise of platform (offsite) publishing and the implications both for business models andconsumption. Facebook Instant Articles rolled out to more major sites in 2016 but just assignificant for many publishers has been the growth of ‘distributed’ social video and Google’sAccelerated Mobile Pages (AMP). These optimised pages, served from search results pages,only launched in February, quickly came to account for a significant share of publishers’ pageviews. The chart below from the Verge website (part of Vox Media) shows how all the growth inthe last year has come from distributed consumption with AMP pages making up 14% of articleviews, a bit more than Instant Articles.7Figure 1.2 Verge ViewsbySource(2015- hile Apple’s iOS 10 update increased the prominence of its previously underwhelmingNews app along with improved notifications. For some publishers this was a ‘game changer’ withCNN reporting page views up to 35m in September from just 5m a month earlier.8 We can expectfar more focus on these two platforms in 2017.Year of Live and Social VideoLive news video has been around for more than two decades but exploded in the last year withthe birth of Facebook Live. Such is Facebook’s obsession with live video, they paid the world’s toppublishers to produce content for the platform, shelling out 50m to Buzzfeed, the New York Timesand the BBC amongst others. Instagram introduced live streaming in 2016 while Twitter added360 degree live video within Periscope and has made live streaming a core audience and revenuefocus for the company. Meanwhile SnapChat has had success with its 24 hour Live Stories,crowdsourced collections of digital media from a specific location.These developments are partly about using video’s power to capture more attention (and thusmore advertising) but also combine new forms of self-expression with a growing interest in ‘what’shappening right now’. “Fast forward five years, it’s going to be [mostly] video”, says CEO MarkZuckerberg,9 while further out he’s betting on more immersive experiences like AR and cant-traffic-driver-for-somenews-orgs/Referring to the Newsfeed at the F8 developer conference 2015 http://fortune.com/2016/03/02/facebook-video/5
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017We strongly flagged the significance of live video in last year’s Predictions report along with thenew ethical dilemmas that would emerge. Facebook broadcast its first live murder, a live robbery,ISIS propaganda and an emoji filled frontline 6/82016Last year’s predictions We said Snapchat would be a keynetwork to watch due to its trackrecord of technical innovation andaudience focus. We also predictedthe growth of professionally producedvertical and square video. But wefailed to predict the arrival of ‘roundvideo’ or Snapchat spectacles. Thesenew camera equipped sunglassescapture video with a lens that mimics the human eye, though when viewed on a phone theycan be cropped in either landscape or vertical view. This year may see ‘round video’ emerge asa new standard or disappear without trace but the renamed Snap Inc remains the most talkedabout company in Silicon Valley and is set for a lively IPO in 2017.Last year, we also highlighted the rise of the bots and the trend towards conversationaljournalism. In February, Quartz surprised everyone with its conversational app that behaved likea bot. This was not true AI as humans write all the copy in the newsroom, but it sparked a newway of thinking about interacting with news on the phone and a host of imitators.RISJDigitalNewsReport2016There was much we got right and morewe got wrong. We said Yahoo would bebroken up or sold. This almost happenedin 2016. We said Twitter would be bought– again a near miss. Both companies areguaranteed to attract attention and deliverboardroom turmoil in equal measure in theyear ahead.6RISJDigitalNewsReport201621/06/92016
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 20172. Key Trends and Predictions for 20172.1 Fake News, Algorithms and Guarding Against the Filter BubbleFake news is not new but as Mark Thompson points out in his new book Enough Said,10 “ourdigital eco-systems have evolved into a near perfect environment for distorted and false newsto thrive”. In the last weeks of the US election, according to an analysis by Buzzfeed News, fakestories such as the Pope endorsing Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton selling weapons to ISISoutperformed real news on Facebook with more shares, reactions and 0ElecIonStoriesFigure 2.1 Total Facebook Engagements* for Top 20 Election gagementrefers todthenumber of shares, reactions and comments for a piece of content on Facebook.Source:FacebookatavtotaliaBuzzSumoSource: Facebook data via BuzzSumoThere is a danger of exaggerating the extent of fake news. Mark Zuckerberg argues that itamounts to less that 1% of what people actually see in their newsfeed, but the election hasRISJDigitalNewsmade a long-standing issue around fake and misleading content much more apparent. ThisReport2016matters because our Reuters Institute research shows that in almost all countries more peoplenow rely on social media as a source of news than printed newspapers. More than one in ten(12%) now consider social media as their main source of news and around a quarter of adultsunder the age of 25.11 But solving these problems is going to be complicated by a difficulty indefining fake news in an era of increased partisanship and polarisation – not least with the nextpresident of the United States himself an enthusiastic practitioner and sharer of fake news. Sowill Facebook, as the largest social network, recognise and face up to its new editorial power?How might publishers respond to these trends in the year to come?1011Thompson, Enough Said: What’s Gone Wrong with the Language of Politics?, Bodley Head, 2016.28% of 18-24s use social media as main source, 24% for TV news (average of 26 countries) Newman et al., DigitalNews Report, RISJ, June 2016.7
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS1. Fact-checking explosion: These services will multiply in 2017 fuelled by funding fromphilanthropists, foundations and platforms. Google is supporting a number of new services as partof its Digital News Initiative (DNI). Facebook has announced plans to outsource fact-checking toservices like Snopes, the Washington Post and PolitiFact and to algorithmically integrate these withthe news feed. Expect controversies over whichfact-checking services are used, who is fundingthem and why. Trump supporters will denouncethem as part of a left-wing conspiracy and setup their own services to fact-check their politicalopponents and the media. Traditional newscompanies will also up their game in this area,creating or upgrading fact checking brands toincrease credibility.By the end of the year there are likely to behundreds of browser extensions and messagebots offering fact checking services (seeWashington Post’s trailblazer right).Paul Bradshaw of Birmingham City University thinks we’ll be surprised in 2017 by the level ofRISJDigitalNews2automation within verification and fact-checking. “Nothing stimulates technological developmentReport20162like war, and the information wars are already generating increasingly ‘augmented journalism’ asnews organisations - and social media - develop the weapons to fight back.”Quotes from the survey:“Fake news threatens to undermine democracy all around the world. Faced with this threat,news publishers can’t afford to retreat behind paywalls: we need to be out there, in people’snewsfeeds, challenging the lies at scale, treating disinformation on social media platforms asan urgent frontline beat”See more on the rise of fact-checking sites in our recent Reuters Institute report, The Rise of FactChecking Sites in Europe (Graves et al. 2016).122. Platform and algorithm changes: The leading platforms are already focusing enormousresources on dealing with fake news. They know that loss of confidence in the platform will affect theirbottom line, but they’ll also be desperate not to get drawn into the media business directly. Facebookis not going to solve the problem of fake news in the next year, but automatic picture recognition,machine learning, better verification and triaging all these programmatically are on the way.In the short term, the main focus will be around penalising sources that do not have a strongtrack record and making it easier for consumers to report false news (and feeding these signalsback into the core algorithms so these sources get demoted). Beyond that they’ll be working onfeatures to allow users to have better control of what appears in the news feed. Twitter release ofa new ‘mute’ button shows that they have also begun to give users more options to managethe quality and type of news they are exposed 0Sites%20in%20Europe.pdf8
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017Publishers will also hope for stronger branding or other visual signals to reduce the flatteningeffect that Barack Obama noted is making hard for ordinary people to “separate truth from lies,fact from fiction”, reducing trust in the business of news.133. Regulation threats and take down dilemmas: This process has already started in Germanywith suggestions by senior politicians that Facebook or other distributers of news should be finedup to 500,000 euros for each fake news story it fails to take down from its site. This is unlikely tohappen but the pressure will force platforms to employ more senior editorial staff to make thesecalls and respond to requests, with the German and French elections being a particular flashpoint.Expect to see more allegations that websites supported by Russian president Vladimir Putin aretrying to undermine the democratic process – particularly in former communist countries. TheCzech government is setting up an ‘anti-fake news’ unit to monitor around 40 websites pushingconspiracy theories and inaccurate information about migrants in the run up to October elections.With democracy increasingly in the firing line, Facebook’s new Head of News will have their workcut out in 2017.4. Serendipity algorithms: Expect to see the creation and marketing of services that challengeour prejudices; that give you more of what you don’t like. The Guardian has already started afeature: ‘Burst your bubble’, which offers links to conservative articles that thoughtful liberalsshould read.14 But countering the bubble, says City University’s Jane Singer, will be harder than itseems given “how viscerally it feeds our emotions and perceptions, and the extent to which everyone of us exists within it”.5. Flight to quality news brands: In many ways these developments offer an opportunity forexisting news brands. Over two-thirds (70%) of respondents to our digital leaders survey say theythink their position will be strengthened, by highlighting the need for trusted brands and accuratenews at a time of uncertainty. Damian Radcliffe of Oregon University believes some audiencesmay “increasingly appreciate the importance – and value – of quality independent journalism”and points to the increased rate of subscription for the New York Times, and ProPublica amongstothers immediately following the Trump victory.Figure2.2 ews weaken or strengthen strengthentheposiIonofnewsposition of news media like yours online?medialikeyoursonline?0%20%40%60%80%Quotes from the w“Can only do good to force theplatforms to address the issue [bypromoting] trusted news sources”“As a provider of high quality newswe’re needed more than ever”8%I hope the projects we have (ahoaxbusting tool in particular) willfinally have consequences”5%Base e 143 Editors, CEOs and digital ve-articles-trump9
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017This may be wishful thinking with others pointing out that the discussion of fake news mayfurther harm the public’s trust in media or cause people to turn away from news altogether. Thisis clearly a turning point for media and all eyes will be on how both publishers and platformsrespond to this crisis of credibility.2.2 Redefining Publishers’ Relationship with PlatformsA key question in 2017 is how the already tense relationship between publishers and platformswill develop. In our survey almost half (46%) said they were more worried about the role andinfluence of platforms compared with last year. Fewer than one in ten (9%) were less worried.Despite this, the vast majority of publishers plan to continue to invest heavily in Facebook and to alesser extent other platforms this year. Three quarters (73%) said that their overall digital strategiesaimed to strike an equal balance between their own websites/properties and distributing contentvia third parties with only a fifth (21%) saying they would be mainly focusing on their own sites eininvesIngmostthisyear?Figure2.3 WhichinvestmentswillinbeMOSTIMPORTANT in 80%73%Base ort2016Quotes from the survey:21/06/132016“The news industry is happily starting to wise up to the fact that it has been thoughtlesslymaking Facebook and the other platforms better to its own detriment. It’s time for theserelationships to be reset.”“Platforms are eating up the audience and the advertising dollars that media companiesdepend on.”“The power of GAFAs [Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon] is both an opportunity toaddress more/different users and a critical risk to our media role of hierarchizing messages.”“Instant Articles took up a lot of air time this year (rightly so) but it doesn’t seem to be deliveringfor publishers. My concern is how hard Facebook now pull the ‘incentive’ lever.”10
JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017Many publishers are unhappy with the amount of money they get from Facebook, especially withvideo monetisation yet to come on stream in a significant way. Access to customer data is also abig issue for some with at least one publisher withdrawing from Apple News. Reliable data is alsoa concern with Facebook having to apologise for overstating (for two years) how much time, onaverage its users were spending watching videos. And then there are worries about ownershipand attribution with some publishers unhappy that Google’s AMP shows their content framed witha Google url.15 And yet, despite all this, there remains widespread recognition of the positive sideof the equation; that in a mobile and social world these platforms remain critical to reaching newaudiences. So what might give? How can this asynchronous relationship become more balanced?SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS1. Publishers fight back - create platforms of their own: One Nordic publisher, Schibsted, hasalready started to build its own platforms for content and advertising to create the scale and datacompetence to compete with Facebook. Initially just Schibsted publishers will use the platformbut expect to see this extended to other media partners though strategic partnerships. In China,the Bingdu app aggregates news from many different publishers, and has added Facebook stylerecommendation algorithms helping it attract around 10m active users.16 Axel Springer’s Updayapp for Android is another example of the same trend. Expect to see more publisher-owned newsaggregators emerge over the next few years.2. Platforms pay hard cash for content: Facebook has already set a precedent by payingaround 140 different publishers to kick-start its live video business. But this is unlikely to be a oneoff as platforms become more desperate for growth in an increasingly saturated and competitivemarket. High quality content will become more and more important to build loyalty and keepattention – even if only the largest and most prestigious publishers are likely to reap the benefits.With interruptive advertising on the way out, expect platforms like Snapchat to come up with newmodels including direct payment and joint sponsorship deals for its Discover platform. It is worthnoting that this type of scheme already operates in Korea where Naver pays publishers around 40m a year, with the money coming out of search and portal profits else
1 JOURNALISM, MEDIA, AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2017 About the Author Nic Newman is a Research Associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism and has been lead author of the annual Digital News Report since 2012.He is also a consultant on digital
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