Trade Patterns And Global Value Chains In East Asia

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Trade patterns and global valuechains in East Asia:From trade in goods to trade in tasks

World Trade OrganizationThe World Trade Organization (WTO) is the onlyinternational organization dealing with the rulesof trade between nations. At its heart are the WTOagreements, negotiated and signed by the bulkof the world’s trading nations and ratified in theirparliaments. The goal is to help producers of goodsand services, exporters and importers conduct theirbusiness.Website: www.wto.orgIDE-JETROThe Institute of Developing Economies (IDE)conducts research on economic, political andsocietal issues in developing economies to supportJapan’s expansion of harmonious trade andinvestment and provision of international economiccooperation focused on developing economies.Website: www.ide.go.jp/English/

ContentsAcknowledgements and Disclaimer2Foreword3Introduction4I. From mass demand to global supply chain8II. Organization of the global production process18III. Infrastructure services in global value chains28IV. The evolution of tariff policies36V. Foreign direct investment48VI. Integrated diversity: The production system and employment in the Asia-US region58VII. An evolutionary perspective on production networks in the Asia-US region72VIII. Trade in intermediate goods78IX. Vertical trade and trade in value added: Towards new measures of international trade92X. Cross-regional spillover of economic growth: The territorial impactof global manufacturing in China106XI. Glossary114XII. Bibliography116XIII. Abbreviations and symbols119ANNEX 1: Composition of regions and other economic groupings120ANNEX 2: Geographical coverage of Chinese regions123ANNEX 3: The schematic presentation of the IDE-JETRO Asian International Input-Output (AIO) Table124ANNEX 4: Visualization of supply chains125ANNEX 5: Other technical notes1271

Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East AsiaAcknowledgementsThis publication is the result of a cooperative effortbetween the WTO and IDE-JETRO. The writing of thebook and the preparation of the various statistical inputshas involved staff from both organizations.Many people provided assistance during its preparation.Special thanks are addressed to IDE-JETRO for havingprovided the Asian International Input-Output (AIO)Tables used for the compilation of many indicators shownin the publication. Acknowledgements are also due toAnthony Martin and Helen Swain of the WTO Informationand External Relations Division for their commentsand suggestions. We are also grateful to the WTODocuments Reproduction and Distribution Section.About the editors and contributorsThe publication was prepared and edited under thedirection of Hubert Escaith, WTO Chief Statistician,and Satoshi Inomata, Director of the International InputOutput Analysis Group, IDE-JETRO.Christophe Degain and Andreas Maurer were responsiblefor the technical supervision of the project. ChristopheDegain also managed the publication process, assistedby Antonella Liberatore and Myriam Nafir.Contributors to the initial manuscripts includeChristophe Degain (Chapters I, VIII, IX), Florian Eberth(III, VIII, IX), Hubert Escaith (I, IV, VI), Farah Farooq (III,V), Satoshi Inomata (VI, VII, X), Andreas Maurer (II, V),Adelina Mendoza (IV), Bo Meng (X) and Bekele Tamenu(II, III).Giacomo Frigerio was responsible for the graphic designand layout of the publication.DisclaimerThis publication and any opinions reflected therein are the sole responsibility of the WTO Secretariat and IDE-JETRO.They do not express the opinions or views of WTO members or of institutional stakeholders of IDE-JETRO.WTO members are frequently referred to as “countries”, although some members are not countries in the usualsense of the word but are officially “customs territories”. Geographical and other groupings in this report do notimply any expression of opinion by the authors concerning the status of any country or territory, the delimitation of itsfrontiers or the rights or obligations of any WTO member in respect of WTO agreements. The colours, boundaries,denominations, and classifications used in the maps which feature in this publication do not imply any judgement ofthe legal or other status of any territory, nor any endorsement or acceptance of any boundary.Throughout this report, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, the Republic of Korea and theSeparate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu are referred to as Hong Kong (China), Korea,Rep. of (in some figures), and Chinese Taipei, respectively.Note on geographical coverageEast Asia in this publication covers China, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Macao (China),Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Thailand and Viet Nam. India is also included in the study. Dependingon data availability, the country coverage can vary across chapters. See Annex 1 for details on the composition ofgeographical and economic groupings used in the publication.Statistical noteTrade data sourced from statistical frameworks such as the balance of payments (BOP), customs or input-output tablesdo not necessarily match each other due to differences in concepts.2

ForewordThis book is the result of cooperation between IDEJETRO and the WTO in analysing a fundamentalchange that has been taking place in the structure ofinternational trade. This change is referred to in variousways: vertical specialization, production sharing, trade intasks, or supply chain trade, to cite just a few. What theseall indicate is that much of trade these days comprisescomponents or intermediate goods and services thatpass from economy to economy before becoming part ofa final traded product.This change has many implications for the way weunderstand trade policy. The distinction between “them”and “us” that has traditionally defined our way of thinkingabout imports and exports is increasingly outmoded.Products are no longer “made in Japan”, or “made inFrance”; they are truly “made in the world”. This newreality has profound implications on several counts. Inparticular, it redefines the nature of trade relations that arenow characterized by a much closer inter-relationship.In order to understand fully the true nature of these newtrading interactions, and the actual contribution of tradeto national economies, we need to promote a conceptualand statistical shift in the way trade is most commonlyperceived in policy debates. The present research buildson complementary programmes developed separately atIDE-JETRO, with the construction of international inputoutput matrices, and at WTO, with the measurement oftrade in value added. By combining the expertise anddata available in both organizations, this book illustrateshow the conjunction of technical, institutional and politicalchanges in East Asia in the past 30 years has led to theemergence of new production and trade networks.success story was the result of a close partnershipbetween private and public sectors, the latter facilitatingthe work of the former. Building these industrialrelationships also paved the way for the emergence ofdeeper regional integration.Besides analysing the new trading relations frominternational and regional perspectives, the book alsoprovides interesting findings on the impact of internationaltrade on domestic economies. The role of trade ingenerating employment opportunities is reviewed, andshows, using the emblematic case of China, how anexport-led development strategy, initially focused on afew industrial coastal zones, was able to progressivelyinclude the rest of the economy.East Asia has been at the heart of the new model governingglobal manufacturing and international trade. It providesa natural case study to explore the contours of this newterritory. But the relevance of the study transcends theregional dimension, and we hope that analysts and policymakers from other regions, especially in the developingworld, will read these results with interest and adaptthem to their own national and regional contexts.Pascal LamyWTO Director-GeneralThe report makes it clear that business opportunitiesin developing countries have not only been linked tochanges in the global manufacturing model, spurredby the United States and Japan, but have also beenstimulated by governments in developing countries.These governments have invested massively to providethe necessary transportation and telecommunicationinfrastructure, while facilitating trade through variousinstitutional and administrative improvements. The Asian3Takashi ShiraishiIDE-JETRO President

Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East AsiaIntroductionThe geographical fragmentation of production hascreated a new trade reality. Often referred to asglobal value chains or vertical specialization, thisfragmentation deepens the interdependency of traderelations and has many implications for how weunderstand trade policy. This book sheds light on thenature of this interdependency, and the contributionof trade to national economies. It illustrates theconjunction of technical, institutional and politicalchanges that led to the emergence of production andtrade networks in East Asia, including their impact ontrade patterns.As shown in the diagram, the rise of global valuechains results from the conjunction of several factors.It started with a change in the consumption models ofindustrialized economies, which found a supply potentialin some developing countries. The book also showshow this development approach, initially centred on afew leading economies that had adopted an export-ledindustrialization strategy, enabled a larger number ofregional partners to embark on an industrialization paththat had deep implications for their domestic economies.This structural shift in the functioning of internationaltrade requires, in turn, that the tools used to analyse itsevolution, in particular trade statistics, be adapted.International demandIncrease of trade inintermediate goodsDevelopment ofinfrastructureand trade policyGlobal Value Chains (GVCs)and world tradeNeed for new statisticalmeasures of internationaltradeIndustrial processing zonesDomestic/territorialimpact of GVCsOffshoring-outsourcingstrategies and FDIThe first chapter recalls that globalization has gonethrough several phases; as a matter of fact, the historyof mankind is often closely related to the evolution oftrade. In former times, when transportation was difficult,international trade was limited to the most expensiveitems. With the industrial revolution in the 19th century,mass production and improved transportation madeinternational trade much easier, and most goods becametradable. More recently, a new phenomenon, “globalmanufacturing”, is again boosting the volume and diversityof products being exchanged. But it is also changing thevery nature of international trade. Global manufacturingis characterized by the geographical fragmentation ofproductive processes and the offshoring of industrialtasks.The increasing fragmentation of value chains has ledto an increase of trade flows in intermediate goods,especially in the manufacturing sector. In 2009, tradein intermediate goods was the most dynamic sectorof international trade, representing more than 50 percent of non-fuel world merchandise trade. This tradein parts, components and accessories encourages thespecialization of different economies, leading to a “tradein tasks” that adds value along the production chain.Specialization is no longer based on the overall balanceof comparative advantage of countries in producing afinal good, but on the comparative advantage of “tasks”that these countries complete at a specific step alongthe global value chain.4

It would be wrong to attribute the emergence ofinternational supply chains to changes in the productivesphere alone. Supply responds to demand, and theemergence of “Factory Asia” primarily reflects the rise ofmass marketing in the West and, in particular, changes inthe consumption structure of the US market. In turn, thisdemand-supply relationship between the United Statesand Asia has led to Asian economies being structured inaccordance with their respective comparative advantages.Over time, economic roles within East Asia have changed,leading to a regional clustering of supply chains basedon close industrial interconnections. This industrialinterconnection has paved the way for closer regionalintegration, facilitating trade within the supply chains.The second chapter discusses the process of outsourcingand offshoring, showing the special importance of exportprocessing zones (EPZ) in the international fragmentationof global manufacturing networks. Many developingcountries have based their export-led strategies onthe creation of these dedicated industrial zones. As aresult, EPZs account for more than 20 per cent of totalexports of developing economies. But manufacturing isonly a part of the global supply chain story, and services,including transport, communications and other businessservices, are also key components of these globalproduction networks.Chapter III is devoted to the business and infrastructureservices necessary for the smooth operation of globalvalue chains. Logistics services, which support thefunctioning of supply chains and the delivery of finalgoods to wholesaling or retailing sectors, are crucialelements of these production processes. In this context,Hong Kong (China) and Singapore have become coredistribution and logistics hubs in Asian production andtrade networks. As part of their overall business strategy,enterprises may also outsource some of their non-corebusiness functions abroad. India and the Philippineshave become major offshore service providers, mainlyin information technology (IT) and business processoutsourcing (BPO). Upgrading infrastructure andsupport services allowed Asian countries to lower thecost of doing business and increase the internationalcompetitiveness of their domestic firms. Programmeswere also introduced to facilitate trade and improvetrade-related domestic regulations and procedures.While remaining competitive by world standards, if thecost to import and export at the national border hasincreased in most countries - mainly due to higher fuelprices - the time needed to process trade formalities hasgenerally dropped.Tariffs, another important part of international transactioncosts, are reviewed in the fourth chapter. Asianeconomies have been lowering their applied tariffs, andsome economies are hardly levying any duties at all ontheir imports. Tariffs on agricultural products, however,remain high compared to tariffs on industrial goods.Asia’s dominance in trade of semi-processed productsis also reflected in its tariff structures, with relatively littletariff escalation. In particular, tariffs on semi-processedproducts are lower than on raw materials or processedproducts. This flat structure of tariff schedules reflectslow effective protection at industry level, something to beexpected when firms participate actively in internationalsupply chains. Nevertheless, the reduction in the use oftariffs has not been accompanied by a similar reductionin the use of non-tariff measures.Chapter V is dedicated to foreign direct investment (FDI),which has played a big role in the expansion of tradein intermediate goods. Asia’s share of total FDI inflowsdoubled between 1985 and 1995 and has continuedto increase. China emerged as the most attractivedestination for FDI flows in the Asia sub-region, but itsshare is declining, while India is now absorbing moreinvestment. Whereas these two very large economiesnaturally attract large volumes of investment, FDI in factrepresents a higher share of GDP in smaller economiessuch as Hong Kong (China), Singapore or Viet Nam.Although the link between trade and FDI is ambivalent,as a large share goes to non-tradable service sectors,FDI is an essential part of the offshoring strategies ofmultinational companies, boosting intra-firm trade in theprocess. While some types of FDI may substitute crossborder transactions, the level of merchandise exportsmirrors the increasing level of FDI inflows in most leadingAsian economies. Similarly, the increased FDI flows tothe tertiary sector are also related to the developmentof services that support and complement global valuechains.While the previous chapters described the economicand institutional context in which global value chainsdeveloped, Chapter VI analyses more closely thediversity and complementarity of the Asian regionalproduction system. Using a set of international inputoutput tables constructed by IDE-JETRO, the analysisreveals a dialectical relationship characterized bysignificant structural diversity on the one hand and ahigh degree of complementarity on the other one. Thiscomplementarity among Asian industries is both acause for and a consequence of deepened economicinterdependency between countries. The forces leading5

Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East Asiato de facto economic integration were first observed inJapan, and then gradually shifted towards China. Thechapter shows the growing role of China and the relativedecline of the United States and Japan as productionhubs. Other emerging East Asian economies have alsosignificantly increased their degree of integration into theregional production system, contributing to strengtheningeconomic interdependency in the Asia-US region.The diversity and complementarity of the regionalproduction system also fosters specialization when itcomes to trade in tasks. Reflecting their particular rolesin global value chains, some countries, like Japan or theRepublic of Korea, specialize in the export of productsinvolving high- or medium-skilled labour, while others,such as China or Viet Nam, focus on low-skilled, labourintensive activities. When considering the totality ofthe value chain, from conception to production andconsumption, developed economies like the UnitedStates tend to create employment at both ends of thequalification spectrum, from highly-skilled engineersand professionals to low-skilled retail workers; however,low-skilled manufacturing tasks are outsourced. Thenet balance of employment is also clearly influenced bythe overall macroeconomic situation of each economy;net job creation attributable to trade is much higher inexport-led surplus countries than in inward-orientedones, especially when the latter run structural tradedeficits.An examination of the historical evolution of productionnetworks in the region, which is the purpose of ChapterVII, shows how Asian economies have becomeinterconnected with each other and with the US market.In 1985, there were only four key players in the region:Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore. In the 1990s,the Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei and Thailand alsoemerged as important links in the production network.Japan was extending its supply chains, while outsourcingfrom the United States was also strongly entering thepicture. After 2000, the emergence of China altered theregional network, and by 2005, the network’s centre ofgravity had clearly shifted there. The intermediate goodsimported by China come through relatively long andcomplex supply chains, characterized by a high degreeof fragmentation and sophistication. The competitivenessof Chinese exports is not only attributable to its lowproduction costs, but also to the complex intermediategoods imported from other countries, be they from Asiaor the rest of the world.Chapter VIII is dedicated to the mapping of tradein intermediate goods, which constitutes the “bloodstream” that irrigates global and regional supply chains.Trade in intermediate goods now dominates worldtrade in non-fuel merchandise. While Europe is still thebiggest trader in intermediate goods, Asia has beenrapidly closing the gap, and is now a close second.While intermediate goods constitute more than 60 percent of Asia’s total imports, Asia tends to export morefinal goods composed of the imported intermediateones. This regional characteristic, inherent in the region’srole as “Factory Asia”, is not equally displayed by eachcountry. Some economies, like China, India and VietNam, have distinctly higher shares of intermediate goodsin their imports than in their exports, while the opposite istrue for the Republic of Korea, Japan and Chinese Taipei.Not only has trade in intermediate goods increased, butthese goods are also increasingly complex.Some trade analysts have argued that the change fromtrade in goods to trade in tasks implied by the operationof global value chains is comparable to a paradigm shift inthe analysis of international trade. Because new conceptsalso involve new measurements, Chapter IX exploressome of the changes required to complement existingstatistical indicators. The complexity of productive andcommercial relationships has blurred the relevance ofa series of macroeconomic indicators, such as bilateraltrade balances. The concept of “country of origin” isbecoming increasingly difficult to apply to manufacturedgoods, as the various operations that comprise them,from the design of a product to the making of itscomponents, their assembly and related marketing, arespread across the world. Nowadays, products are more“made in the world” than “made in” a specific country.One way of taking into account the fragmentation ofvalue chains and providing a decomposition of grossexports by domestic and foreign origin is by measuringthe value added imbedded in exports.Measuring trade in value added uses both trade statisticsand international input-output tables, such as thosedeveloped by IDE-JETRO, to separate the domestic contentof an export from the cost of the imported components.This methodology offers a new perspective for tradeanalysts, as it dramatically re-evaluates the importance ofsome economies as “countries of origin”. The result is thatthe absolute value of some bilateral trade imbalances isreduced, notably that of China and the United States, whileoverall global balances remain untouched.6

Vertical specialization, an indicator compiled throughinput-output tables, allows for an assessment of theforeign content included in exports and hence the tradeoccurring within international production chains. Thelevel and growth of vertical specialization do not onlyvary substantially among the Asian economies but alsowithin sectors.Finally, Chapter X demonstrates, using China as anexample, how an export-led development strategy cantrickle down to the rest of the domestic economy. In2010, China became the second-largest economy inthe world, surpassing Japan in terms of nominal grossdomestic product. This was the result of the rapideconomic growth which followed the launch of theReform and Open-door policy in 1978. The coastalregions of China enjoyed particularly strong growthas a result of preferential development policies heavilyorientated towards exports. However, their successhas led to significant regional disparities. A territorialrebalancing has been under way since the early 2000s,and the centre of gravity of development has shiftedto the western regions and the North East. The nextchallenge for China is to reduce the regional incomeinequalities and move from an export-dependenteconomy to a balanced system based more on domesticdemand.A glossary and a number of technical annexes at the endof the publication provide additional information on theterms and technical points developed in the differentchapters.7

Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East AsiaI. From mass demandto global supply chains Production and trade evolve in parallel, from craftsmanship and localmarkets, to global value chains and international “trade in tasks”. The emergence of “Factory Asia” reflects changing demand for moreproduct variety in the US market. Over time, the respective economic roles within East Asia have changed,leading to a regional clustering of supply chains based on closeindustrial interconnections.8

I. From massdemand to globalsupply chainsII. Organizationof the globalproduction processIII. Infrastructureservices in globalvalue chainsIV. The evolutionof tariff policiesContents10B. The emergence of “Factory Asia”: When supply meets demand14C. Growing vertical specialization in Asia and regional clustering of tasks16VI. IntegrateddiversityVII. An evolutionaryperspective onproduction networksin the Asia-US regionVIII. Trade inintermediate goodsIX.Vertical tradeand trade invalue addedX. Cross-regionalspillover ofeconomic growth9V. Foreign directinvestmentA. From trade in goods to trade in tasks: The rise of global value chains

Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East AsiaA. From trade in goods to trade in tasks: The rise of global value chainsSince ancient times, international trade has allowedconsumers to purchase products that are not producedlocally. Production can be separated from consumption,often by great distances. The notion is summed up in thefamous example of English 18th century economist DavidRicardo about Portuguese wine being traded for Englishcloth. Countries did not need to grow grapes to enjoywine, he noted. Thanks to trade, they could “transform”the cloth they produced into wine.Before the development of mechanized transport, suchas railways and steam ships, international trade wasreserved for the most expensive commodities, like spicesor silk. With mechanization, land and sea transportbecame easier and more reliable, allowing productionand consumption to be more geographically dissociated.The 19th century industrial revolution saw also the riseof large industries, with workers performing specializedtasks and progressively supplanting traditional craftsmen.While craftsmen worked close to their customers, usuallyin the same town, the industrial revolution created largeindustrial agglomerations able to serve national marketsthanks to a new network of railways and intercity roads(see Figure 1).The key to higher industrial productivity was toconcentrate the various tasks involved under a singleroof. By specializing in one or a small number of tasks,each worker could focus his/her energy and therebyperform more efficiently. But without proximity, it wouldhave been impossible to coordinate the efforts of thevarious workers, or to combine their inputs into a singleproduct. Thus, production remained largely enclosedwithin national borders and trade patterns reflected therespective productive specializations. As World TradeOrganization (WTO) Director-General Pascal Lamy hasnoted: “In the 19th century, when Ricardo developedwhat was to become the foundations of internationaltrade theory, countries exported what they produced. Infact, the industrial revolution took root in countries thathad coal mines and iron ore. A Portuguese entrepreneurimporting a steam engine from England would knowthat everything, from the steel of the wheels to the boilerpressure gauge, came from the United Kingdom.”1Another industrial quantum leap took place in the1990s, thanks to the information technology (IT)revolution and the conjunction of a series of political andinstitutional breakthroughs. Together these facilitatedthe internationalization of industrial processes, openingthe way to what became global manufacturing. Cheaperand faster intercontinental communication allowed farflung businesses and production centres to coordinatemore easily, leading to the unbundling of the productionprocess and its international fragmentation. The USauthor Thomas Friedman has described these trendsas forces that have “flattened” the world. Among themare the birth of the Internet, the development of workflowsoftware, “in-forming” and advances in digital, mobile,personal and virtual communication technologies.On the institutional side, tariff cuts and multilateralagreements boosted trade. For example, trade inintermediary products, the backbone of geographicallyfragmented supply chains, was facilitated by internationalaccords, such as the WTO Information TechnologyAgreement (ITA)2 on computers, semi-conductors and ahost of related goods. Asia also benefitted from regionaltrade pacts, including those established under theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) andthe Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC).The integrated factory floor, which had dominatedmanufacturing since the 19th century, has been replacedwith a network of individual suppliers specializing inspecific services or phases of production. In this secondgreat unbundling, as defined by Richard Baldwin of theGraduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva,production is “sliced and diced” into separate fragmentsthat can be spread around the globe.3 PrincetonUniversity economists Gene Grossman and EstebanRossi-Hansberg4 have called this new paradigm“trade in tasks”. Countries no longer export exclusivelyfinished products, but tend to specialize in specificstages of the production process. These various stepsto obtain finished products can be associated throughthe notion of a “value chain”, which refers to the entiresequence of productive (i.e. value-added) activities,5from the conception of a product to its manufacturingand commercialization. The possibility of slicing upand optimizing value chain activities among multiplecompanies and various geographical locations haseven spawned a broader term - the “global value chain”(GVC). With specialization in specific tasks and theirclose integration into a highly coordinated businessmodel, these chains of related activities result in the10

III. Infrastructureservices in globalvalue chainsIV. The evolutionof tariff policiesV. Foreign directinvestmentVI. IntegrateddiversityVII. An evolutionaryperspective onproduction networksin the Asia-US regionVIII. Trade inintermediate goodsCommercial CenterTrade in TasksIX.Vertical tradeand trade invalue addedVarious countries with fragmented production chain.X. Cross-regionalspillover ofeconomic growthSource: WTO Secretariat.11II. O

East Asia in this publication covers China, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Macao (China), Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Thailand and Viet Nam. India is also included in the study. Depending on data availability, the country coverage can vary across chapters.

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