Achieving Net Zero: The Role Of Nuclear Energy In Decarbonisation - NIRAB

3Achieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in DecarbonisationAchieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in DecarbonisationExecutive SummaryClimate change is a global issue and one of the greatestchallenges faced by society. Urgent action is required tomitigate these unfavourable changes and as such, the UKGovernment has committed to achieving net zero carbonemissions by 2050. In order to achieve this target, it willbe necessary to meet a significantly increased demand forelectricity, and to decarbonise a wide range of other energyuses such as, but not limited to, domestic heating, heavy goodstransport and industrial processes. However, delivering asustainable, robust and cost-effective energy network to meetnet zero UK commitments will be incredibly challenging. Thisreport aims to support Government in meeting this challengeby identifying the role that an innovative civil nuclear powerprogramme should play in such an energy system and theaction needed by Government, with the support of industry,to realise that potential.Achieving a net zero target by 2050 is likely to require all theavailable and capable low-carbon technologies to be deployedat scale and at the earliest opportunity; including nuclear,renewables and gas combined with Carbon Capture andStorage (CCS).Nuclear, as well as being a sourceof cost competitive electricity, cancontribute to the production of heatand hydrogen to decarbonise otherenergy vectors.Of these, nuclear is the only 24/7 low-carbon technologyto have been demonstrated at scale and has provided clean,safe and secure electricity to the grid since 1956. Therefore,in terms of energy security, cost to the economy and the abilityto meet the net zero target, planning a future net zero energysystem without significant nuclear energy would be extremelyhigh risk.The Nuclear Innovation Research and Advisory Board (NIRAB)is convinced that new cost-competitive nuclear power mustThese products have different characteristics and together could deliver the following benefits:make a significant contribution to meeting the increaseddemand for low-carbon electricity. It would be prudent to planfor nuclear energy to provide at least half of the firm lowcarbon electricity not provided by renewables. NIRAB is alsoconvinced that nuclear power has the potential to contributeto the decarbonisation of other energy vectors, playing anincreased role in a connected future clean energy system.Further work is required to quantify how nuclear can bestsupport cogeneration; to use a high temperature processto generate hydrogen or synthetic fuels, together with theability to switch over to delivery of mid-merit electricity,when required.Planning a future net zero energysystem without significant nuclearenergy would be extremely highrisk.Nuclear may be required to make a larger contribution tothe energy mix should, for example, very high capture rates( 99%) prove more challenging than anticipated and residualcarbon emissions from CCS cannot be accommodated. NIRABproposes that three streams of nuclear product developmentand deployment should be progressed to supply the energyneeds of the population and support economic prosperitywithout impacting on climate change or air quality: Large scale Light Water Reactors (LWR), which arecurrently available and suitable for baseload electricitygeneration;Small Modular Reactors (SMR), which are based on thesame proven technology and can offer additional flexibilityto meet local energy needs;Advanced Modular Reactors (AMR), which typically havea higher temperature output, consequently enablingthem to contribute to decarbonisation through heat andhydrogen production, as well as generate electricity atcompetitive costs.Contributesubstantially toachieving netzero emissionsby 2050 throughelectricity, heatand hydogenEnsure a costeffective,sustainableand robust UKenergy systemCreate highquality jobsand long-termUK employmentin disadvantagedregions of the UKIncrease thenuclear sector’scontribution toGDP includingvia exportsSafeguardsecurity ofenergy supplyfor consumersand industrySocietal Commitment and GrowthOver 80% of the UK’s nuclear generating capacity will reachor exceed its design life and is scheduled to be lost within adecade, along with its direct employment and its operationalsupply chain. Consequently, there is an urgency to establishand implement a nuclear energy strategy cemented inenduring Government policy, with increased rollout of largescale reactors and investment in Small and Advanced ModularReactors.Recommendation 2Government should enable nuclear contributionto wider energy decarbonisation, by: Developing a more detailed technicaland commercial understanding of the role thatadvanced reactors can play in an evolving marketfor competitive low-cost heat, hydrogen andsynthetic fuels; Investing in the development of reactor systemsthat give access to more efficient high temperatureoutputs.Recommendation 1Government should, in partnership with industry,deploy a Small Modular Reactor fleet, with thefirst commercial operating reactor by 2030.As part of this, Government should continue to support: Advanced digital design; The deployment of advanced manufacturing methodsand the UK supply chain capability in this area; The development of an improved methodology fordeveloping codes and standards for new manufacturingmethods, aligned to SMR programme needs.The above recommendation should be supported with thedevelopment of hydrogen and synthetic fuel generationsystems (utilising the high temperature heat reactor output),and advanced manufacturing methods of fuels for suchreactors.4

5Achieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in DecarbonisationAMR development should focus on systems that canbe commercially deployed in time to make a significantcontribution to meeting the net zero 2050 target.Technology down selection will need to take into accounta number of factors including, but not limited to: The availability of evidence from the operation of reactorsystems which provide a direct line of sight to theproposed design; The availability of a global or domestic infrastructure todraw upon for the supply of components, materials andfuel; Synergies with UK technical capability and experience.High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) systems score wellagainst these criteria and are also being progressed ininternational programmes. NIRAB considers this technologyis the most likely to be developed in the timescale required,given the above requirements.Recommendation 3Government should enable an Advanced Modular Reactordemonstrator in the period 2030 to 2035. An appropriatedown selection should be completed as soon as possible,against a baseline of High Temperature Gas Reactors.A detailed techno-economic evaluation of the availabletechnologies should be performed as soon as possibleagainst functional requirements of the energy system (e.g.synergies with renewables, competitively priced electricity,heat, hydrogen generation or synthetic fuel production). Theprogramme should facilitate the integration of the reactorsystem with the broader energy system, addressing otherenergy needs in addition to electricity generation. Followingtechnology selection, sufficient resources should be allocatedto alternative reactor concepts, to enable the UK to remain aAchieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in Decarbonisationcredible international partner in their longer-term development.The Nuclear Innovation Programme (NIP), funded by BEISshould support the technical and commercial cases required tounderpin commercial deployment. Elements of the programmecovering longer timescale technologies should continue butshould form a smaller percentage of future publicly fundedcivil nuclear research. An effective, structured programmemanagement regime should be applied to the NIP.Recommendation 4Publicly funded UK nuclear innovation activities shouldbe shaped by the strategic goal of cost-effectivedeployment of advanced nuclear technology, supportinga decarbonised energy system, in time to makea significant contribution to decarbonisation by 2050.Where necessary, the programme should also seek to optimiseUK owned / controlled intellectual property to create supplychain opportunities and to maintain core skills and capability incivil nuclear.Taking a programmatic approach will place a greater emphasison topics such as the development of advanced fuels andtechnologies for using nuclear heat to generate hydrogen. Itwill also include topics relevant to multiple reactor systems,including those that could be deployed on a longer timescale.Such topics include digital design, nuclear safety and securityand advanced manufacturing methods for materials.The recommended budget for public investment in a continuedNIP for the 5-year period starting in April 2021 is 400M forresearch and development and 600M for advanced reactordemonstration, exclusive of any potential investment in aUK SMR. To achieve demonstration of an advanced reactortechnology in the period 2030 to 2035 a high level of pubicinvestment is needed from April 2021 to ignite private sectorinvestment and raise investor interest and confidence.The reactor systems, fuels, disposal route and energyconversion plant associated with a UK based demonstrationwill require ten years to develop and construct.NIRAB highlights the crucial importance of internationalengagement in the development and demonstration of nucleartechnology. Accessing international expertise, critical R&Dinfrastructure and leveraging research, development anddemonstration programmes will reduce risks, enable SMRand AMR technologies to be developed and commercialisedin a cost-effective, timely manner. Indeed, internationalcollaboration may be the only practicable route tocommercialise AMRs on the timescale required to make asignificant contribution to meeting the net zero target. TheGeneration IV International Forum (GIF), Euratom nuclearfission research programme and bilateral engagement withcountries where synergies exist, all offer opportunities for suchcollaboration.Recommendation 5UK investment in nuclear fission should be leveragedeffectively through international R&D programmes, thatwill enable successful commercialisation of technologyto accelerate timeframes, making best use of resources,expertise and nuclear infrastructure.A number of synergies exist between the needs and thechallenges of AMRs systems and fusion, especially in relationto the fact that both will generate a high temperature outputwhich may need translating into other energy vectors. TheR&D programmes and associated infrastructure requirementssurrounding advanced materials, computational simulations,and robotics & artificial intelligence will benefit both GIF fissiontechnologies and fusion systems.6Recommendation 6Government should ensure best value for money andincreased impact of nuclear on net zero by facilitatingintegration of investment and delivery between the UKfission and fusion programmes.Cost effectively delivering net zero in the UK, whilst minimisingthe impact on society, is an enormous challenge that we allneed to face. NIRAB firmly believes that addressing these sixrecommendations presents the best opportunity to delivernuclear into the UK energy system for all the decarbonisationbenefit it provides.NIRAB trusts that its recommendations will provide Governmentwith the guidance it requires to set future priorities andwelcomes the opportunity to discuss any aspect.Recommended public investment,for 5-year period starting in April2021, of 400M for research anddevelopment and 600M fordemonstration, exclusive of anypotential investment in a UK SMR.

Achieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in DecarbonisationAchieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in Decarbonisation1. IntroductionThe Nuclear Innovation Research Advisory Board (NIRAB)exists to provide independent expert advice to Governmenton the publicly-funded civil nuclear research and innovationprogramme required to underpin energy policy and industrialstrategy, and to foster cooperation and coordination across thesector.This report provides a summary of the activity of NIRABsince April 2018. It reflects the progress made by NIRAB informulating advice to Government on the future role of newnuclear energy as a means to achieve net zero by 2050 and indoing so create positive economic impact and jobs. A numberof recommendations for action are made accordingly.1.1. NIRAB RemitNIRAB has been convened to provide independent expertadvice to Government. Government tasked the NuclearInnovation and Research Office (NIRO) with convening areconstituted and restructured NIRAB able to draw on a widerange of expertise. The re-convened NIRAB first met on 4thApril 2018.The role of NIRAB is set out in its terms of reference(Appendix 1). Government has asked that NIRAB: Monitor the delivery and impact of the BEIS NuclearInnovation Programme (NIP) and recommend anyamendments that may be necessary in the light of outputsfrom the programme and developments in the nuclearlandscape;Advise where innovation could drive down costs acrossthe whole nuclear cycle; Identify opportunities for greater collaboration withindustry and international partners; Support the development of recommendations for newresearch and innovation programmes required to underpinpolicy priorities including energy policy and industrialpolicy; Oversee a regular review of the nuclear research andinnovation landscape which may include facilities,capability, portfolio and capacity in the UK;82. The UK Energy Landscape Foster greater cooperation and coordination acrossthe whole of the UK’s nuclear research and innovationcapability, portfolio and capacity.Ministers, Government Departments and Agencies seek advicefrom NIRAB on issues related to civil nuclear research andinnovation in the UK. NIRAB member profiles are provided onthe NIRAB web site [1]. Details of the role the NIRO undertakesin supporting the operation of NIRAB are included in Appendix2. NIRAB does not have responsibility for managing ordelivering research and innovation programmes or for directingor managing budgets, ensuring advice is appropriatelyindependent.NIRAB, supported by NIRO, has primarily operated throughsmaller working groups, holding workshops to consider specificareas of focus. These working groups have been restructuredand consolidated since the publication of NIRAB’s previousreport [2]. The current working group structure is detailed inAppendix 3.1.2. Structure of ReportIn April 2019 NIRAB published a report [2] highlighting theurgent need to take action to enable nuclear power to makea significant contribution to meeting a target of an 80%reduction in emissions. Since then Government has adopted amuch more challenging net zero emissions target. NIRAB hasfocused on understanding the role that nuclear energy canplay in meeting this target, whilst underpinning Governmentpolicy and industrial strategy. In Chapter 2 of this report thecurrent and emerging energy landscape is described. Chapter3 summarises the role that nuclear should play in meeting anet zero target by 2050. The net zero target emphasises theneed to go beyond decarbonisation of electricity and to makesignificant inroads into, amongst other areas, decarbonisingheat and the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels.Chapter 3 also covers cost reduction considerations enablingnuclear energy to be cost competitive and play a significantrole in meeting future energy needs. NIRAB is convinced thatthis can be achieved.Finally, Chapter 4 considers current and future research anddevelopment needs as well as future R&D Infrastructurerequirements to support achieving Government strategicambitions.This chapter describes the context within which NIRAB’s adviceand recommendations have been developed. It summarisesthe broader clean energy challenge and discusses the evolvinglandscape.2.1. The Emerging Energy Market and the Clean GrowthChallengeClimate change is a global issue and one of the greatestchallenges faced by society. UK leadership in combattingclimate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions isvital in addressing this challenge. A number of non-nuclearinternational bodies (including the International Energy Agency(IEA), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentand European Union) have indicated that without a significantincrease in the deployment of nuclear power, it will be difficultfor the world to secure sufficient energy to achieve sustainabledevelopment and to mitigate climate change. The IEA furthernotes that an 80% increase in global nuclear power productionis needed to meet international climate goals [3]. The samereport makes a number of enabling policy recommendationsfurther demonstrating the significant challenge ofdecarbonising without nuclear energy.In the ten years to 2019, the UK set a series of carbon budgetsaimed at reducing emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050.The first two carbon budgets have been achieved with the UKbeing on target for third budget. However, Government hasalready identified [4] projected shortfalls against the fourth andfifth carbon budgets. The UK net zero commitment significantlyincreases this challenge.In 2019, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) publishedits recommendations to limit emissions of greenhouse gasesover the next 30 years with a target of net zero emissionsby 2050 [5]. Whilst net zero is significantly more ambitiousthan previous targets, upon reviewing the latest scientificevidence on climate change, the CCC concluded that net zerois necessary, feasible and cost-effective. Government acceptedthe main conclusions of the CCC report and the UK adopted anet zero emissions target for 2050 through the Climate ChangeAct 2008 [6] , the first country to do so. Since the CCC report anumber of further studies have been conducted. This reportconsiders the evidence from the CCC and such studies.Comparison of Historic and Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel TypeLow carbonOtherHistoric data from digest of UK Energy Statistics 2019, electricity fuel use, genreration and supply (DUKES 5.6)700600TWh of electricty generated7500Four fold increase400300200100199820032008Figure 1 Comparison of historic and future electricity generation [20]201320182050

Achieving Net Zero: The role of Nuclear Energy in DecarbonisationThis report uses the terminology employed in the CCC report: ‘Firm’ power – production that can be scheduled withconfidence well in advance; ‘Mid-merit’ power – provided by power stations that canflexibly adjust their output over short periods of time(under an hour).Other 9919971998199619951994199302.1.2. Other Future Energy DemandGovernment statistics show that in 2018 electricity generationaccounted for less than 20% of UK CO2 emissions, as illustratedin Figure 2 [18]. Substantially more effort will therefore berequired to decarbonise other elements of energy use whichinclude: Transport including cars and heavy goods vehicles; Space heating in both domestic and business premises; High temperature heat used in industrial processes; Shipping; Aviation; Agriculture.2.1.1. Future Electricity DemandFuture energy scenarios have been published by a range oforganisations, including the CCC [7] , the National Grid [8] , EnergySystems Catapult [9] , BP [10] , the Energy Technologies Institute[11], Imperial College [12] , Ofgem [13,14,15,16] and the Royal Society[17]. Each offers a different perspective on the details of futureenergy supply and demand. However, they are consistent inreflecting a considerable increase in demand for electricity andthe need to decarbonise other elements of energy use to meetthe net zero target.106001992To meet the growth in low-carbon electricity demand the CCCidentified the need to construct 5 to 8 GWe of firm (baseload)renewable generating capacity and 1 to 2 GWe of other lowcarbon generating capacity every year between now and 2050(a total of 150 to 240 GW and 30 to 60 GW respectively). TheCCC assumed that the non-renewable low-carbon generatingcapacity would be delivered by a combination of nuclear andgas fired stations operated in conjunction with CCS. However,CCS has yet to be demonstrated to achieve the necessaryremoval rate at an industrial scale.Electricity supply1991Several non-nuclear internationalbodies (including the InternationalEnergy Agency, OECD and EU) haveindicated that without a significantincrease in the deployment ofnuclear power, it will be difficultfor the world to secure sufficientenergy to achieve sustainabledevelopment and to mitigateclimate change.Meeting the additional demand for electricity arising fromelectric vehicles and heat pumps, and fully decarbonisingelectricity supply will require an increase in the share of lowcarbon and renewables generation to around 95% in 2050.When combined with the increased demand, low-carbonelectricity generation could need to be as much as four timestoday’s levels (see Figure 1). This will require an increasedand sustained infrastructure build programme for newgeneration. The increased renewable component will need tobe complemented by low-carbon firm power options such asnuclear and gas / biofuels in conjunction with Carbon Captureand Storage (CCS).1990Over and above decarbonising electricity generation theUK must decarbonise housing and domestic heat, industrialemissions, transport, agriculture, aviation and shippingto meet the net zero commitment. Of course, the costs ofimplementation of these activities are considerable, thoughthe last decade shows that electricity generation costs can fallwhen a concerted effort is applied through Government andIndustry actions. Continued effort is now required to enablenuclear to achieve the same and deliver on wider energydemands.Achieving Net Zero: The role of Nucl

3. The Role of Nuclear in Energy System Decarbonisation 13 3.1. Energy from Nuclear Fission 14 3.2. Cost Competitiveness of Energy from Nuclear 17 Energy from Nuclear to Support Decarbonisation of Electricity 21 3.3.1. Energy from Nuclear to Provide Mid-Merit Electricity 21 3.4. Energy from Nuclear for Heat, Hydrogen and Synthetic Fuels 22 3.4 .