2012 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 Contents

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OECD-FAOAgricultural Outlook2012-2021

OECD-FAOAgricultural Outlook2012-2021FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATIONOF THE UNITED NATIONS

This work is published on the responsibilities of the Secretary-General of the OECD and theDirector-General of FAO. The views expressed and conclusions reached in this report do notnecessarily correspond to those of the governments of OECD member countries, or thegovernments of the FAO member countries.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundariesand to the name of any territory, city or area.Please cite this publication as:OECD/FAO (2012), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021, OECD Publishing and FAO.http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr outlook-2012-enISBN 978-92-64-17302-6 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-17307-1 (PDF)Annual: OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookISSN 1563-0447 (print)ISSN 1999-1142 (online)Photo credits:Cover illustrations Unclesam - Fotolia Istockphoto/Aydin Mutlu Akalong Suitsuit – Fotolia HONG SIEW MEE – Fotolia HLPhoto – FotoliaCorrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. OECD/FAO 2012You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases andmultimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitableacknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights shouldbe submitted to rights@oecd.org. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall beaddressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at info@copyright.com or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC)at contact@cfcopies.com.

FOREWORDForewordThe Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Themain purpose of the report is the attempt to build consensus on global prospects for the agriculture,fisheries and food sectors, and on emerging issues which affect them. Accordingly, the projectionsand assessments provided in the report are the result of close co-operation with national experts inOECD countries as well as some key non-OECD countries and agro-industry organisations, reflectingthe combined knowledge and expertise of this wide group of collaborators. A jointly developedmodelling system, based on the OECD's Aglink and FAO’s Cosimo models facilitates consistency andanalysis of the projections. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data andprojections, is available through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org.This annual report provides market projections for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats,dairy products and fish and seafood over the 2012-21 period. The market assessments arecontingent on a set of underlying assumptions regarding macroeconomic factors and thecontinuation of domestic agricultural and trade policies. They also assume normal weatherconditions and long-term productivity trends. As such, the Outlook presents a plausible view on theevolution of global agricultural markets over the next decade and provides a baseline for furtheranalysis of alternative economic or policy assumptions.The setting for this Outlook is one of lowering of agricultural commodity prices from nearrecord levels in response to a large rebound in supplies of major crops and a weaker macroeconomicenvironment. Food price inflation has eased but remains a concern in developing countries. Lookingahead, the short run global economic outlook has weakened with inflation over the medium term inthe major emerging economies expected to be above the OECD area average. Other key assumptionsare for a slower population growth and much higher energy prices in the coming decade.A critical question addressed in this report is whether the supply response to projected highercommodity prices will be sufficient to meet the future demand for food, feed, fuel and fibre. Risinginput costs, increasing resource constraints, growing environmental pressures and the uncertaintiesof climate change will all have an impact on agricultural output. The key issue facing globalagriculture is how to increase productivity in a more sustainable way.OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 20123

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSAcknowledgementsThis Agricultural Outlook is jointly prepared by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.At the OECD, the Outlook report was authored by the Agro-Food Trade and MarketsDivision of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Wayne Jones (Division Head), Pavel Vavra(Outlook and baseline co-ordinator), Linda Fulponi, Céline Giner, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez,Garry Smith, Grégoire Tallard and Shinichi Taya. The OECD Secretariat is grateful for thecontributions provided by Marcel Adenäuer, Institute for Food and Resource Economics,University Bonn and Pierre Charlebois, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additionaldrafting, research and statistical assistance were provided by Armelle Elasri, AlexisFournier, Gaëlle Gouarin and Claude Nenert, with additional input from Coralie David(DAF/INV) and Ane Kathrine Christensen (ECO/MPD). Meetings organisation and documentpreparation were provided by Christine Cameron and editing by Michèle Patterson.Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by Frano Ilicic.Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations furnisheduseful comments on earlier drafts of the report.At the FAO, the team of economists and commodity officers from the Trade andMarkets Division contributing to this edition consisted of David Hallam (Division Director),Boubaker BenBelhassen (Principal Officer), Merritt Cluff (Team Leader), Holger Matthey,Abdolreza Abbassian, ElMamoun Amrouk, Pedro Arias, Concepcion Calpe, Darja Regorsekand Peter Thoenes. Arno Becker from AFC joined the team as biofuel consultant. StefaniaVannuccini and Audun Lem contributed from the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department,with technical support from Pierre Charlebois. Keith Wiebe, Leslie Lipper and Seth Meyerfrom the Agricultural Development Economics Division contributed to the thematic andbiofuel chapters. Research assistance and database preparation were provided by ClaudioCerquiglini, Barbara Ferraioli, Berardina Forzinetti, Marco Milo, Fiorella Picchioni andBarbara Senfter. Meeting organisation, document preparation and team administrationwere provided by Emily Carroll. Several other colleagues from FAO and member countryinstitutions improved this report through valuable details and comments.Finally, the valuable information and feedback provided by the International DairyFederation, International Fertilizer Industry Association, International Fishmeal and FishOil Organisation, International Grains Council, International Meat Secretariat,International Seed Federation, International Sugar Organisation and CropLife Internationalis gratefully acknowledged.4OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of ContentsAcronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11The Outlook in Brief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Chapter 1.19Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The setting – A large rebound in supplies to calm markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Summary of main market trends and developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Risks and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20202740Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46Chapter 2.Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49Can supply keep up with rising demand?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .What are the land and water constraints for agriculture? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .What has been the performance in agricultural productivity growth? . . . . . . . . . .What is the potential for future partial and total factor productivity growth? . . .What would be the impact of reducing the yield gap in developing countries? . .Why the need for sustainable agricultural productivity growth? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .What farm practices can increase sustainable agricultural productivity growth? .Policy challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .505255575965697780Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8182Chapter 3.Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87Market situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88888995Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103Annex 3.A1. US biofuel policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Annex 3.A2. Uncertainties around the implementation options of US biofuelpolicies: Results of the scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113Chapter 4.Cereals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119Market situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 20125

TABLE OF CONTENTSMarket trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Main issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132Chapter 5.Oilseeds and Oilseed Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133Market situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Chapter 6.Sugar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145Market situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Chapter 7.146146148158Meat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163Market situation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Chapter 8.134134135141143164164165170Fish and Seafood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173Market situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174174175180Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182Chapter 9.Dairy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185Market situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Projection highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .186186187196Glossary of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211Statistical Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2176OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTSTables1.1. Food Inflation rates in the BRIICS, January 2000 to January 2011. . . . . . . . . . . .1.2. Slowdown in population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3. Share of OECD trade in world imports and exports of agriculturalproducts declines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.4. Impact in 2021 of a 10% appreciation of the USD on world prices and net trade.2.1. Average annual growth rates in world rice, wheat and maize production . . . . . .2.2. Total Factor Productivity growth of agriculture in world regions, 1961-2009. . . . .2.3. Average total factor productivity growth rates by region and sector, 2001-40. . . .2.4. Definition of yield measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.5. Estimates of yield gaps by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.6. Supply details in the baseline and scenario results on reducing the yieldgap in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.1. Transport fuel use in major biofuel producing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A2.1. Results of the three options scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.1. Thailand: Support prices under Paddy Pledging Programme and PriceInsurance Scheme. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.1. Trends in meat off-take ratios in selected countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.1. Growth in milk yields, selected countries and animal types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2326384451555961626391114131172198Figures1.1. Food price inflation rates are higher in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.2. Food price inflation shows considerable variation in BRIICS and developingcountries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3. Annual food price inflation rates: selected OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.4. GDP growth: uncertainties concerning the speed of the recovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.5. All agricultural commodity prices to average higher in nominal termsin 2012-21 relative to the previous decade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.6. In real terms livestock product prices to show some of the highest averagegains in 2012-21 relative to the previous decade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.7. Agricultural commodity prices to increase in nominal terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.8. Average annual growth in net agricultural output to slow down . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.9. Larger country shares of biofuels production by 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.10. Change in the production of crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11. Change in production of livestock and fish products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.12. Higher consumption of crop products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.13. Higher consumption of livestock and fish products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.14. Increasing exports of crop products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.15. Increasing exports of livestock and fish products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.16. Regional shares of the change in value of agricultural imports and exports . . . . . .1.17. Crude oil prices affect agricultural commodity and biofuels markets . . . . . . . . . . . .1.18. Impact on consumption and world prices of a 10% lower GDP growthin BRIC countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.19. Simulated price results for cereals in 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.20. Simulated price volatility for cereals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.1. Annual growth in global agricultural production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2. World vulnerable areas regarding land availability and quality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 2012222324252929303233343537373939404143454652537

TABLE OF CONTENTS2.3.2.4.2.5.2.6.2.7.8Arable land and land under permanent crops, past and future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World vulnerable areas regarding freshwater availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gender gaps regarding fertiliser use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annual growth rate in yields for selected crops at world level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Determinants of crop yields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54545758602.8. World price effects of reducing the yield gap by 20% in developing countries . . . .2.9. Global coarse grains and sugarcane use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.10. Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions(2004, CO2-equivalents) and projections for different greenhouse gases (2010-50) .2.11. Nutrient surpluses per hectare from agriculture (1970-2050). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12. Yields of large and small perennial crop producers, 1971-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.13. Technical efficiency of agriculture water use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.14. Evolution of nitrogen use efficiency in China and United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.1. Strong ethanol and biodiesel prices over the outlook period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.2. Development of the world ethanol market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3. Development of the world biodiesel market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.4. Projected development of the US ethanol market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.5. Projected development of the European biodiesel market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.6. Projected development of the Brazilian ethanol market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.7. Structure of US biofuel mandates in the law (RFS2), the baselineand the 3 options for 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.8. Global ethanol market effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.1. Mandated quantities and implied gaps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.2. Determination of a binding mandate and RIN price evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.3. Nesting of mandates, examples of different market outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1.4. EPA mandate implementation options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A2.1. Implications of the three options on the US ethanol market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A2.2. Interactions between US and Brazilian ethanol markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A2.3. Impacts on the other agricultural sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.1. Tight stocks and high input costs underpin prices throughout the projectionperiod . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.2. Less expansion in area while yield growth also slows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.3. World wheat production and stock ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.4. World coarse grain production and stock ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.5. World rice production and stock ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.6. Wheat consumption in developed and developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.7. Coarse grains consumption in developed and developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.8. Wheat (left) and coarse grains (right) export shares in 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.9. Production, demand and net trade projections for coarse grains in China (left)and wheat in India (right). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.10. World rice exports projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.11. Wheat export projections from major exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.12. Thailand: Rice exports in 2010 and 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.1. Oilseeds prices remain at higher plateau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.2. Moderate growth in global oilseeds production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.3. Biodiesel to use a large share of global vegetable oil consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.4. Oilseed meal use growth rates to slow down. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS5.5.6.1.6.2.6.3.6.4.Vegetable oil exports to be dominated by Indonesia and Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World sugar balance moves into production surplus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World prices to remain on a higher plateau. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Global stocks-to-use to rise in the mid-term and then decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Main increase in sugar crops will occur in developing and emerging economies .1.9.2.9.3.9.4.9.5.India’s production cycle to influence world prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Developing countries dominate sugar production and consumption . . . . . . . . . . . .Sugar exports remain highly concentrated and dominated by Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . .Sugar production and exports to grow in Brazil as ethanol output expands . . . . . .China to become the leading sugar importer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .China’s imports to rise strongly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Higher US consumption fed by rising Mexican imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Thailand’s surge in production and exports to 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World prices in real terms expected to remain strong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Meat production growth dominated by developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Globally, poultry will overtake pigmeat as largest meat sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Increase in meat demand, by region, between 2021 and the base period . . . . . . . . .Evolution of world exports of beef, pigmeat, poultry and sheep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Higher fish prices due to higher feed costs and strong demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Falling fish prices reversed by higher costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Aquaculture keeps total fishery production volume above beef, pork or poultry . .Aquaculture overtakes capture fisheries for human consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Increasing share of fishmeal from fish residues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Growth of per capita fish consumption, except Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Volume of MSC certified fisheries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World dairy prices in nominal terms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World dairy prices in real terms (2005 USD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Evolution of milk production in developing and developed countries . . . . . . . . . . . .Outlook for milk production growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Despite strong growth in per capita consumption (in milk equivalent),an important gap among regions remains. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The EU world dairy export market shares decline to moderate over the Outlook .Major dairy product exporters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Major dairy product importers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cow milk yields, selected countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 781791791821871871891899.6.9.7.9.8.9.9.OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2012 OECD/FAO 20121931941951961989

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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONSAcronyms and n, Caribbean and Pacific countriesAvian influenzaAgriculture In

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