OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION FORECAST, ESTIMATED PRICES, AND . - Louisiana

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OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION FORECAST,ESTIMATED PRICES, AND STATE MINERAL REVENUEBy Manuel LamThe forecast of Louisiana’s oil and gas production shows a continuing decline for the near future. The declinerate over the past few years has been lower than had originally been expected, but without future increases inoil and gas field activity the decline may become much more rapid. The average decline rate over the past tenyears was 3.2% for oil and 1.1% for gas. In the near future, Louisiana's oil and gas production is forecasted todecline faster than in the past ten years. The recent low decline rate was a product of high levels of drilling inthe 1980's that created surplus production capacity today, improvement in drilling techniques and tools, highprices, and development of new exploration technology. The recent decline in oil and gas prices will cause adrop in state mineral revenue.PRODUCTION: The Department of Natural Resources, Technology Assessment Division (DNR-TAD) hastwo models to forecast production. The long term model is used for long periods (10 to 30 years). The shortterm model is used to forecast over periods of 1 to 5 years, because of the wide fluctuation from year to year.In recent months, the price of oil and gas has been dropping; whereas, the cost of drilling has been falling at aslower pace. These factors will cause oil and gas production to drop. The oil and gas short term productionforecast predicts a decline rate of 4.2% per year for oil and 4.5% per year for gas over the next few years, whilethe long term production forecast models predict a decline rate of 4.4% per year for oil and 3.8% per year forgas. DNR-TAD short term forecast models projected, in December 2000, the following Louisiana oil and gasproduction, excluding federal OCS 2005/06CRUDE 80285,488,752NATURAL 44,214,8321,195,063,041PRICES: Oil and gas prices are difficult to predict, and gas prices act differently than oil prices. Oil prices aredriven by the international oil market. Gas prices are driven by factors such as weather, demand for gas notsatisfied by the pipeline system, availability of spot supplies, and competing fuel prices. The average price foroil has been dropping since November 2000. At today’s conditions, oil prices are expected to be between 13and 27 per barrel for the next five years. The average gas price has been on a roller coaster over the past fewyears. Average gas prices are expected to be between 1.80 and 3.60 for the next five years. DNR-TADprojected, on December 2000, the following oil and gas price and severance tax rates for the next five years:OILYEARPRICE( /Barrel)FY2001/02 21.20FY2002/03 20.80FY2003/04 20.30FY2004/05 20.20FY2005/06 20.30GASPRICE( /MCF)2.6002.7002.4002.4002.600SEVERANCE TAXOILGASFULL RATE FULL RATE(% of value)( /MCF)12.25% 0.19912.25% 0.10012.25% 0.10412.25% 0.09312.25% 0.093Submitted to the Comprehensive Energy Policy Advisory CommissionThe Department of Natural ResourcesTechnology Assessment Division

REVENUE: Louisiana revenue from minerals can be divided into three categories: 1) royalty, 2) severance tax,and 3) bonus, rental, and overriding royalty (BR&O). Royalty and severance tax are solely dependent onproduction and prices. The BR&O is principally dependent on market outlook. Because market outlook canvary widely, there is greater uncertainty in predicting BR&O revenue. The historical revenue data is assumed tobe representative of future revenue for BR&O. Based on the above production and prices, the projected statemineral revenue in million dollars, excluding federal OCS, is as LTY231.29223.67196.50187.93194.55BONUS,RENTAL 18%-7.35%-6.24%-1.34%All of these revenue projections depend on how close actual production and prices follow the DNR-TADmodel projections. Future price or production changes will directly affect the actual revenue collected. It isdifficult to say anything about the oil and gas market with much certainty. However, we feel our forecast resultsare conservative, and that any improvement in prices and production will improve the State revenueprojections.LOUISIANA STATE OIL PRODUCTIONActual and Forecasted Through Year 2030LOUISIANA STATE GAS PRODUCTIONActual and Forecasted Through Year 203060065005400430032002110000Act ualForecastedActualForecast edHISTORICAL PRODUCTION AND LONG TERMFORECASTFor a more detailed analysis of the above projections, please see the attachedLouisiana Short Term Oil and Gas Forecast - 2002Submitted to the Comprehensive Energy Policy Advisory CommissionThe Department of Natural ResourcesTechnology Assessment Division

LOUISIANA SHORT TERMOIL AND GAS FORECASTwith Production, Severance, & Royalty Price Sensitivity2002 ReportPrepared by:Manuel LamSenior Energy AnalystTechnology Assessment DivisionT. Michael French, DirectorWilliam J. Delmar, Jr., Assistant DirectorDEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCESJack C. CaldwellSecretary of Natural ResourcesBaton RougeJanuary 17, 2002

TABLE OF CONTENTSPage1EXECUTIVE SUMMARYOIL AND GAS PRICES3CRUDE OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS3NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS5OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION7OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST7GAS PRODUCTION FORECAST10MINERAL ROYALTY13CRUDE OIL ROYALTY14NATURAL GAS ROYALTY15NON-HYDROCARBON ROYALTY16PLANT PRODUCTS ROYALTY16SEVERANCE TAX18CRUDE OIL SEVERANCE TAX19NATURAL GAS SEVERANCE TAX20PLANT PRODUCTS SEVERANCE TAX21NON-HYDROCARBON SEVERANCE TAX22BONUS, RENTAL AND OVERRIDING ROYALTYBonus RevenueRental RevenueOverriding Royalty Revenue23242424i

Page25TOTAL MINERAL REVENUESTATE BOUNDARIES26FEDERAL OCS, INCLUDING 8(g)28APPENDIXAppendix AAbbreviations and Acronyms31Appendix BGlossary32Appendix CLouisiana Severance Tax Exemptions34Appendix DLouisiana Oil Severance Tax RatesLouisiana Natural Gas Severance Tax RatesLouisiana Non-Hydrocarbon Severance Tax Rates353537Appendix ERevenue Estimates At Different Possible PricesLouisiana Crude Oil RoyaltyLouisiana Natural Gas RoyaltyLouisiana Crude Oil Severance TaxLouisiana Natural Gas Severance Tax38383939Appendix FCalendar Year Historical and Projected DataLouisiana Oil and Gas ProductionLouisiana Oil and Gas PricesRoyalty RevenueSeverance Tax Revenue40414243ii

LIST OF TABLESTable123456789101112131415PageLouisiana Crude Oil Price ProjectionsLouisiana Natural Gas Price ProjectionsLouisiana Crude Oil Production ForecastLouisiana Natural Gas Production ForecastLouisiana State Total Royalty RevenueLouisiana Crude Oil Royalty RevenueLouisiana Natural Gas Royalty RevenueLouisiana State Total Severance Tax RevenueLouisiana Crude Oil Severance Tax RevenueLouisiana Natural Gas Severance Tax RevenueLouisiana Bonus, Rental and Overriding Royalty RevenueLouisiana Total Fiscal Year Mineral RevenueAssumptions: Values Used In The Calculation of Total Mineral RevenueState Section 8(g) Revenues from Louisiana’s OCSLouisiana Federal Lands’ Royalty Mineral Revenue358111315161920212427282930LIST OF FIGURESFigure12345678910111213PageTotal Revenue From All Mineral ProductionLouisiana Crude Oil PricesLouisiana Natural Gas PricesState Oil Production-Historical and Long Term ProjectionState Oil Production ForecastState Gas Production-Historical and Long Term ProjectionState Gas Production ForecastLouisiana Mineral Royalty Revenue By SourceLouisiana Plant Products Royalty RevenueLouisiana Mineral Severance Tax Revenue By SourceLouisiana Non-Hydrocarbon Minerals Severance Tax RevenueLouisiana Bonus, Rental and Overriding Royalty RevenueState Total Revenue From Mineral Productioniii246791012141718222325

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Louisiana Short Term Oil and Gas Forecast report provides the following information.The oil and gas price chapter shows projected prices for the next five years. The oil and gasproduction chapter shows short term and long term production forecasts. The mineral royaltyrevenue chapter shows projected royalty revenue by source. The severance tax revenuechapter shows projected severance revenue by source. The bonus, rentals, and overridingroyalty (BR&O) revenue chapter shows projected revenue by source. The last chapter is asummary of the royalty, severance tax, and BR&O historical and projected state mineralrevenue, and proceeds from federal lands and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) area.Appendix A shows the definition of abbreviations and acronyms. Appendix B shows thedefinition of terms used in the Forecast. Appendix C shows some Louisiana severance taxexemptions. Appendix D lists state oil and gas severance tax rates. Appendix E showsroyalty and severance tax for FY2002/03 through FY2004/05 at multiple assumed prices.Appendix F shows oil and gas historical data on price, production, bonus, rental, royalty, andseverance tax by calendar year.The Department of Natural Resources, Technology Assessment Division (TAD) short termforecast models projected the following Louisiana oil and gas productions, excluding federalOCS regions.Forecasted state production for FY2001/02 through FY2005/06CRUDE OILNATURAL 730,7201,244,214,8321,195,063,041Projected prices and tax rates for FY2001/02 through FY2005/06SEVERANCE TAXOILGASFULL RATEFULL RATEOILPRICEGASPRICE( /Barrel)( /MCF)(% of value)( .25%12.25% 0.199 0.100 0.104 0.093 0.09321.2020.8020.3020.2020.30-1-

Using the above data and empirical equations we can project the state mineral revenue,excluding revenue from federal regions (Louisiana federal lands and federal offshore-outercontinental shelf).State mineral revenue in million of dollars for FY2001/02 through FY LTYBONUS,RENTAL %Figure 1LOUISIANA TOTAL REVENUE FROMALL MINERAL PRODUCTIONExcluding Federal Lands & High case600.00400.00Low caseDNR Technology Assessment Division200.00Fiscal Y83FY820.00FY81Million dollarsACTUAL1,200.00

OIL AND GAS PRICESCRUDE OIL PRICE PROJECTIONOil prices are determined in the international markets and are difficult to project. As thehistorical data shows great swings in the price of oil, there is also considerable uncertaintyabout future prices. The future price of oil is linked to the unpredictability of world oilsupplies and world economics. Major factors affecting oil prices are: a) political stability ofproducing countries, b) world environmental issues, c) industrialized countries' conservationpractices, d) weather related demand for petroleum products, e) production restraints byOPEC countries, f) economy changes in consumer nations, and g) stability in labor forces. Ifcrude oil supply and demand for petroleum products are well balanced and refiners have thesufficient downstream capacity to process difficult crudes, the price of crude oil will seek astable market condition.Calendar year data is provided in Appendix F. The historical and projected fiscal yearaverage Louisiana wellhead crude oil prices are as follows:Table 1Louisiana Crude Oil Price Projections(Dollars per 5.0025.5025.5027.00The base case assumed that: a) world oil demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.8percent between 2002-2006; b) OPEC will keep their daily production quotas and otherproducing countries will restrain their production (OPEC production quotas does not includeIraq’s humanitarian crude oil sales); c) weather demand will be normal with normal heating-3-

demand in winter and normal cooling demand in late spring and early summer; and d)production will not be disrupted in non-OPEC producing countries.The low case assumed that: a) world oil demand will grow less than 1 percent annuallybetween 2002-2006; b) OPEC countries will produce more than their allowed quotas, andIraq will be producing more than the proposed UN limit of 1 million barrels per day; and c)weather will be mild.The high case assumed that: a) world oil demand will grow at a rate higher than 1.8 percentper year between 2002-2006, fueled by the economic recovery in Southeast Asia; b) OPECcountries will self impose lower production rates than their quotas; and c) production will bedisrupted in non-OPEC producers due to weather, accidents or workers’ strikes.Figure 2LOUISIANA AVERAGE CRUDE OIL WELLHEAD PRICEHISTORICAL AND PROJECTED40.0035.00PROJECTEDACTUALHigh case25.0020.00Base case15.00Low case10.005.00DNR Technology Assessment DivisionFiscal Y83FY820.00FY81Dollars per barrel30.00

NATURAL GAS PRICE PROJECTIONNatural gas prices act differently than crude oil prices. Oil prices are driven by theinternational oil market. Gas prices are driven by factors such as weather, demand for gas notsatisfied by the pipeline system, availability of spot supplies, and competing fuel prices.Natural gas is less traded internationally than oil. It is harder to transport and store, andneeds the proper infrastructure (pipelines, compression stations, LNG tanks, etc.). The majorcost components of natural gas prices are: cost of infield production, cost of transportation,cost of marketing, and investment rate of return. As the historical data shows, mostcomponents of natural gas prices are stable with the exception of marketing cost. Marketingcost is the only cost that oscillates widely. Gas prices increased as regulations faded out inthe early 80's. With deregulation, natural gas started trading in the spot and commoditymarkets. Since 1985, this spot market for gas has grown in importance and today it is themajor player in the determination of gas prices. In April 1990, natural gas futures contractsstarted trading in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). A NYMEX gas futurecontract calls for delivery of 10,000 MCF of gas during a specific month, 1 to 12 months inthe future. The contract delivery point of the gas is Sabine Pipe Line Co.'s Henry Hubterminal near Erath, Louisiana.Factors that could affect prices are weather, storage levels, curtailments, market changes,new consumption and NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement). Gas prices are alsoaffected by psychological factors. The expectation of soft prices often is enough to bringthem about. A good dose of cold winter weather will usually erase much of thepsychological element of low gas prices.Table 2Louisiana Natural Gas Price Projections(Dollars per ghCase2.202.201.801.802.003.303.503.303.303.60

The above table is a list of historical and projected fiscal year average of Louisiana wellheadnatural gas prices. Calendar year data is provided in Appendix F.The base case assumed that: a) U.S. gas demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1percent between 2002-2006; b) LNG imports will be insignificant; c) weather demand will berelatively normal, high heating demand in winter and high cooling in late spring and earlysummer; and d) total U.S. gas imports will be only 10-15 percent of total U.S. consumption.The low case assumed that: a) U.S. gas demand will grow less than half of a percent between2002-2006; b) total U.S. gas imports will be more than 15 percent of total U.S. consumption;c) inventory levels in storages will be high; and d) weather demand will be low because ofmild temperatures.The high case assumed that: a) U.S. gas demand will grow at a rate higher than 1.5 percentbetween 2002-2006; b) total U.S. gas imports will be less than 10 percent of total U.S.consumption; c) inventory in storage will be at low levels; and d) some production ordistribution disruption will occur due to weather or accidents.Figure 3LOUISIANA AVERAGE NATURAL GAS WELLHEAD PRICEHISTORICAL AND PROJECTED6.004.00High case3.00Base case2.00Low caseACTUAL1.00PROJECTEDDNR Technology Assessment DivisionFiscal Y83FY820.00FY81Dollars per MCF5.00

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTIONLouisiana ranks among the top four states in oil and gas production, and is second in percapita energy consumption. It has produced oil and gas for almost a century. The followingsection presents forecast data for oil (crude oil and condensate) and gas (casinghead gas andnatural gas) production from state regulated land and water bottoms. Calendar year data isprovided in Appendix F.OIL PRODUCTION FORECASTThe annual rate of decline over the past ten year period was 3.2%, and the DNR TechnologyAssessment Division long term model is projecting a 4.4% decline per year. The long termmodel is accurate over long periods (10 to 30 years). The short term model is needed toforecast production over periods of 1 to 5 years, because of the wide fluctuations from yearto year as shown in Table 3.Figure 4LOUISIANA STATE LONG TERM CRUDE OILPRODUCTION FORECAST600400300200DNR Technology Assessment Division100Calendar YearActualCondensate oil included, Federal OCS 9601950194019301920191001900Million barrels500

Factors contributing to the year to year deviations in oil production are:v Changes in wildcat drilling and development of marginal fields within the statev Early capping of stripper wells by major producersv Unstable prices of crude oilv Changes in environmental laws, especially those concerning salt water dischargev World crude oil supply growing faster than demand, causing an oil glut similar tothe gas bubblev The number of active rigs in the regionv Military conflicts or political instability in some producing countries (OPECmembers and the former the Soviet Union)v Application of advanced technology such as 3-D and 4-D seismicv State and local tax incentivesThe short term forecast model is predicting a 4.2% per year decline in oil production for thenext five years, FY2001/02 to FY2005/06. The forecasted production rates may be lowdepending on factors such as crude oil prices, number of active drilling rigs, consumerdemand, exploration activities, OPEC production curtailment, non-OPEC producers'production capacity improvement, and Iraq returning to the crude oil market.Calendar year oil production data is provided in Appendix F. Louisiana state, federal OCSexcluded, fiscal year crude oil and condensate production is as follows:Table 3Louisiana Crude Oil Production 33115,486,967111,715,170107,361,001101,989,769

The base case assumed that: a) the price of crude oil will be as shown in the base case crudeoil price projection; and b) drilling activities will remain low (average running rigs inLouisiana onshore and offshore should be around 90 rigs, and around 100 drilling permitsissued per month).The low case assumed that: a) the price and pricing assumptions for crude oil will be asshown in the low case crude oil price forecast; and b) drilling activities will drop further thanpresent levels.The high case assumed that: a) the price and pricing assumptions for crude oil will be asshown in the high case crude oil price forecast; and b) drilling activities will increase frompresent levels.Figure 5LOUISIANA CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATEHISTORICAL PRODUCTION AND SHORT TERM FORECAST250.00ACTUALPROJECTED150.00High caseBase case100.00Low case50.00DNR Technology Assessment DivisionFiscal Y83FY820.00FY81Million barrels200.00

GAS PRODUCTION FORECASTThe average annual rate of decline over the last 10 years was 1.1% which is less than theDNR Technology Assessment Division long term model projection of 3.8% per year. Yearto year production rate changes in this period were from a 5.8% decline to 4.5% increase inproduction. Four years out of the last ten have shown production increases. Even though thelong term model is accurate over a 10 to 30 year period, these short term fluctuationsillustrate why a separate short term model is required to forecast production over periods ofone to five years.Figure 6LOUISIANA STATE LONG TERM NATURAL GASPRODUCTION FORECAST6Trillion Cubic Feet5432DNR Technology Assessment Division1Calendar YearActualForecastedCasinghead gas included, Federal OCS excludedFactors contributing to the year to year deviations are:v Effects on industrial gas demand from chemical industry activityv Growth in use of natural gas to meet clean air requirements in electricpower generation and transportation- 10 91019000

v Changes in environmental laws, especially the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990v Production capacity higher than demandv Price of gas relative to fuel oil and the amount of switching between these two fuelsv Peak day deliver ability of the U.S. pipeline systemv Foreign importsv State and local tax incentivesThe average annual rate of decline predicted by the long term forecast model is 3.8% peryear. The short term forecast model predicts a 4.5% per year decline for FY2001/02 throughFY2005/06. The natural gas production forecast may be low if gas demand in the U.S. ishigher than the U.S. consumption predicted by the U.S. Department of Energy, EnergyInformation Administration, cheaper fuel substitutes are not available for users capable offuel switching, and more new drilling targets gas. The demand for gas may increase as themanufacturing and utilities industries switch to gas for cleaner energy and if natural gasprices remain competitive.Calendar year gas production data is provided in Appendix F. Louisiana natural gas andcasinghead gas production are as follows:Table 4Louisiana Natural Gas Production .950%- 11 467,2871,416,617,3921,359,649,5821,309,611,706

The base case assumed that: a) the price and pricing assumptions for natural gas will be asshown in the base case natural gas price forecast; and b) drilling activities will remain low(average running rigs in Louisiana onshore and offshore should be around 90 rigs, andaround 100 drilling permits issued per month).The low case assumed that: a) the price and pricing assumptions for natural gas will be asshown in the low case natural gas price forecast; and b) drilling activities will drop furtherthan present levels.The high case assumed that: a) the price and pricing assumptions for natural gas will be asshown in the high case natural gas price forecast; and b) drilling activities will increase frompresent levels.Figure 7LOUISIANA NATURAL GAS AND CASINGHEAD GASHISTORICAL PRODUCTION AND SHORT TERM FORECAST3.002.50PROJECTED1.50High caseLow case1.00Base case0.50DNR Technology Assessment DivisionFiscal Year- 12 20.00FY81Trillion Cubic FeetACTUAL2.00

MINERAL ROYALTY REVENUERoyalty is the payment, in value (cash) or in kind (a portion of the commodity), of a statedshare of production from mineral deposits by the lessee to the lessor. In other words, royaltyis the property owner’s (lessor’s) share of revenue from minerals produced on his land.Royalty may be an established minimum, a sliding-scale, or a step-scale. A step-scale royaltyrate increases by steps as the average production on the lease increases. A sliding-scaleroyalty rate is based on average production and applies to all production from the lease. Stateroyalties are a combination of established minimum and sliding-scale types.The following table shows a base, low, and high cases of total mineral royalty revenueestimated for FY2001/02 through FY2005/06, and historical mineral royalty revenue forFY1990/91 through FY2000/01.Table 5Louisiana Total Royalty 69,596291,155,996279,680,116295,695,850The following plot, Figure 8, shows historical and estimated future fiscal year mineralroyalty revenue by source. Calendar year historical royalty revenue from 1991 through 2000and projected royalty revenue from 2001 through 2006 are listed in Appendix F.- 13 -

Figure 8LOUISIANA MINERAL ROYALTY REVENUE BY SOURCE,Excluding Federal OCS500450ACTUAL400PROJECTEDMillion dollars35030025020015010050DNR Technology Assessment FY83FY82FY810Fiscal YearCrude OilNatural GasPlant ProductsOtherCRUDE OIL ROYALTYThe estimated crude oil royalty revenue was calculated using the forecasted oil productionfrom the DNR Technology Assessment Division short term models and oil price projectionsdiscussed in the price chapter. The fiscal year projected base, low, and high cases of crude oilroyalty revenue from FY2001/02 through FY2005/06, and historical crude oil royaltyrevenue from FY1995/96 through FY2000/01 are listed in Table 6.We believe our estimates of production and prices are conservative. As always, changingworld events might cause demand to rise or fall sharply and supply to remain constant ordecrease. Given this possibility, prices can also fluctuate faster than expected. Changes inany of the listed parameters, it will change our base case projection.Calendar year historical crude oil royalty revenue from 1991 through 2000 and projectedcrude oil royalty revenue from 2001 through 2006 are listed in Appendix F. Also, the- 14 -

percentage changes from the previous period are listed. Crude oil royalty revenue estimatesfor FY2002/03 through FY2004/05 at multiple assumed oil prices are listed in Appendix E.Table 6Louisiana Crude Oil L GAS ROYALTYThe gas royalty revenue estimates are highly speculative due to the probability of significantmarket factor influences and changes that cannot be accurately predicted. The projectednatural gas royalty revenue was calculated using the gas production volumes forecasted bythe DNR Technology Assessment Division models, and gas price projections discussed in theprice chapter.Table 7 lists the historical fiscal year natural gas royalty revenue from FY1995/96 throughFY2000/01, and projected natural gas royalty revenue from FY2001/02 through FY2005/06.Also, the percentage changes from the previous period are listed. Natural gas royalty revenueestimates for FY2002/03 through FY2004/05 at multiple assumed gas prices are listed inAppendix E. Calendar year historical natural gas royalty revenue from 1991 through 2000and projected crude oil royalty revenue from 2001 through 2006 are li

crude oil price projections 3 natural gas price projections 5 oil and gas production 7 oil production forecast 7 gas production forecast 10 mineral royalty 13 crude oil royalty 14 natural gas royalty 15 non-hydrocarbon royalty 16 plant products royalty 16 severance tax 18 crude oil severance tax 19 natural gas severance tax 20 plant products .

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