Recent Trends In Southeastern Ecosystems (2021)
Recent Trends inSoutheastern Ecosystems(2021)Measuring progress toward the SoutheastConservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS) goalOctober 13, 2021Preferred Citation: Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy. 2021. Recent Trends inSoutheastern Ecosystems (2021): Measuring Progress toward the SECAS Goal. Available port-2021.pdf
ContentsExecutive summary . 1Overview of recent trends in ecosystem indicators. 2Introduction . 3Background . 3Purpose of this report . 3Methods . 3Changes since the last report . 3Selecting indicators. 3Defining health, function, and connectivity . 3Defining “recent” trends . 4Estimating trends . 4Evaluating confidence in trend . 4Assessments used in the report . 4Assessments considered but not used in this report . 4Ecosystem indicator trends . 5Terrestrial . 5Health . 5Areas without invasive plants . 5Beach birds . 7Forested wetland area . 8Forested wetland birds . 10Gopher tortoise (Eastern population) . 13Longleaf pine area. 15Pine and prairie birds . 16Prescribed fire in longleaf pine . 20Salt marsh area . 21Upland forest area. 22Upland forest birds. 24Function. 28
Working lands conservation . 28Connectivity. 31Undeveloped lands in corridors . 31Freshwater . 33Function. 33Water quality . 33Connectivity. 35Aquatic connectivity . 35Estuarine & marine . 37Health . 37Coastal condition . 37Function. 39Fisheries . 39Image credits . 41
Executive summaryThrough SECAS, diverse partners are working together to design and achieve a connected network oflands and waters that supports thriving fish and wildlife populations and improved quality of life forpeople across the Southeastern United States and the Caribbean. The long-term goal for SECAS is a10% or greater improvement in the health, function, and connectivity of Southeastern ecosystems by2060. To stay on track for achieving that goal, a 1% improvement will be needed every 4 years.This report is the third annual assessment of progress toward the SECAS goal using information fromexisting monitoring programs. It uses the most recent 3-6 years of available data. The report isintended to facilitate discussion around conservation actions needed to meet the goal.Most indicators improved overall during the period covered in this report. Given the rapid changeshappening in the Southeast, this is an encouraging sign for achieving the SECAS goal. Longleaf pinearea, forested wetland birds, working lands conservation, coastal condition, and marine fisheriesindicators improved fast enough to stay on track to meet the SECAS goal. Longleaf pine, forestedwetland conservation, working lands, and marine fisheries have been major areas of sharedconservation focus in the Southeast, and those efforts are clearly having a big impact.Only 5 of the 17 indicators had declining trends. Of these, pine and prairie birds continue to be themost off track for meeting the SECAS goal. Declines in habitat, especially within the West Gulf CoastalPlain, Piedmont, Southeast Coastal Plain, Central Hardwoods, and Peninsular Florida, are likelydriving this pattern. There is still hope that focused conservation can have an impact as Bachman’ssparrow, subject to significant conservation attention, increased in abundance through much of thelongleaf pine range. This further reinforces the importance of accelerating open pine, pine/oaksavanna, and other grassland restoration throughout the Southeast for grassland birds, pollinators,and other key species.For the first time in the 3-year history of this report, prescribed fire in longleaf switched to a decliningtrend. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, prescribed fire did increase between 2019 and 2020—a majorachievement. That said, the overall declining trend over the last 6 years suggests that more work willbe needed to maintain the restoration momentum in this important ecosystem.To learn more about the role of SECAS in meeting the goal, see the SECAS Statement of Purpose.1
Overview of recent trends in ecosystem indicatorsTable 1. Overview of recent trends in ecosystem indicators. Indicators shown in green are on track to meetthe goal ( 1% increase every 4 years); indicators shown in yellow ( 1% increase) and red (declines) are not.EcosystemTypeIndicator% change/yearPageAreas without invasive plants0.33% decline5Beach birds0.003% increase7Forested wetland area0.15% increase8Forested wetland birds2.1% increase10Gopher tortoise(Eastern population)Increasing but %change unknown13Longleaf pine area4.5% increase15Pine and prairie birds2.9% decline16Prescribed fire in longleaf pine2% decline20Salt marsh area0.03% decline21Upland forest area0.14% increase22Upland forest birds0.23% increase24FunctionWorking lands conservation11% increase28ConnectivityUndeveloped land in corridors0.03% decline31FunctionWater quality0.003% increase33ConnectivityAquatic connectivity0.004% increase35HealthCoastal condition1.1% increase37FunctionFisheries0.56% increase39TerrestrialHealthFreshwaterMarine & Estuarine2
IntroductionBackgroundThrough SECAS, diverse partners are working together to design and achieve a connected network oflands and waters that supports thriving fish and wildlife populations and improved quality of life forpeople across the Southeastern United States and the Caribbean. In the fall of 2018, SECAS leadershipapproved a long-term goal and supporting short-term metrics to evaluate progress toward thatconnected network.The long-term goal is a 10% or greater improvement in the health, function, and connectivity ofSoutheastern ecosystems by 2060. One of the short-term metrics, selected to stay on track to meetthe long-term goal, is a 1% improvement in the health, function, and connectivity of Southeasternecosystems every 4 years. This report on recent trends seeks to measure progress toward that metric.Purpose of this reportThis report assesses progress toward the SECAS goal using information from existing monitoringprograms. It is intended to facilitate discussion around conservation actions needed to meet the goal.MethodsChanges since the last reportFor 2021, we made three major improvements: 1) new indicators for working lands conservation, saltmarsh area, and undeveloped land in corridors, 2) updated data for bird indicators, prescribed fire inlongleaf pine, and coastal condition, and 3) reformatting to better match the health, function, andconnectivity categories within the SECAS goal.Selecting indicatorsWe selected indicators that are monitored by consistent multi-state efforts and are already used byother organizations to evaluate ecosystem conditions.Defining health, function, and connectivityFor the purposes of this report, we use these definitions for health, function and connectivity: Health: The condition of species and the ecosystems they depend onFunction: The benefits provided to people by species and ecosystemsConnectivity: The ability of species and ecosystems to move over time3
Defining “recent” trendsWe used the most recent 3-6 years of available data for each indicator to calculate the recent trend. Inmany cases, the time periods for various indicators do not overlap. The available data from all of themonitoring made it difficult to select a single time period as the definition of recent. For example,2015 is the most recent year with available data from the National Coastal Condition Assessment,while data on prescribed fire in longleaf pine was only available starting in 2013.Estimating trendsFor indicators where charts only show two points in time (e.g., longleaf pine area), we simplycalculated the change between those points. For indicators showing data from more than two years(e.g., prescribed fire in longleaf pine), we estimated the trend based on the slope of a linear regressionthrough all points. For coastal condition and bird indicators, where trends were only available fordiscrete subregions or states, we averaged trends equally instead of weighting by area.Evaluating confidence in trendThe confidence estimate for each trend is a qualitative judgement based on the design of themonitoring, overall sample size, and major sources of variability in the indicator.Assessments used in the reportWe used 13 different assessments to evaluate indicator trends. Assessments ranged from remotelysensed data like the National Land Cover Database to long-term volunteer-driven monitoringprograms like the Breeding Bird Survey. Additional assessments used included America’s LongleafRange-wide Accomplishment Reports, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Gopher Tortoise CandidateConservation Agreement reports, USDA Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act Reports,Southeast Conservation Blueprint, International Shorebird Survey , EPA 303(d) state reports,Southeast Aquatic Resources Partnership Aquatic Barrier Database, NOAA C-CAP Regional Landcover,National Coastal Condition Assessments, and NOAA Reports to Congress on the Status of Fisheries.Assessments considered but not used in this reportThere are many subregional assessments of ecosystem conditions (e.g., Chesapeake Bay, Everglades),but their coverage of only part of the Southeast made them difficult to formally integrate into thisparticular report. One national assessment, Surfrider Foundation’s State of the Beach, had potential,but was not used because it focused on policies related to beach conditions rather than the actualcondition of the beaches.4
Ecosystem indicator trendsTerrestrialAll inland and coastal terrestrial ecosystemsHealthThe condition of species and the ecosystems they depend onAreas without invasive plantsFigure 1. Percent change in areas without invasive plants by plant type, based on the most recent availablestate data.Yearly trendMost states showed declining trends for areas without different types of invasive plants. The mostrecent data available varied for each state, with some as old as 2016 and others as recent as 2019.Averaging trends across plant type and states results in a 0.33% decline per year.5
On track to meet SECAS goalNo. The decline of about 1.3% every 4 years is not on track to meet the SECAS goal of a 1% increaseevery 4 years.Data sourceForest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data extracted using the Southern Nonnative Invasive Plant ExtractionTool (SNIPET)Confidence in trendMedium. While data for some states was a few years old, the statistically randomized design of the FIAprogram, its long history of tracking trends, and the sample size across all states suggest these dataprovide a reasonable estimate of the trend.InterpretationThis is an indicator of local conditions across terrestrial ecosystems. This indicator suggests that workto reduce the spread of specific invasive species is having an impact. Without the ongoing work toreduce invasives, landscape and climate change in the Southeast would likely lead to far worsetrends. However, this indicator also shows that additional attention to invasive plants will be requiredto get on track to meet the SECAS goal.Notable trends for this indicator include: 1) improvements in areas without invasive vines inTennessee mostly due to reductions in Japanese honeysuckle, 2) improvements in areas withoutinvasive shrubs in Oklahoma mostly due to reductions in shrubby and Thunberg’s lespedeza, 3)declines in areas without invasive forbs in Mississippi due to large increases in liriope, and 4) declinesin areas without invasive grasses in Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas mostly due to increases inJapanese stiltgrass.6
Beach birdsFigure 2. Beach bird trends and confidence.Yearly trendWhen averaged across species, beach birds increased by 0.003% per year from 2011-2016. Pipingplover and whimbrel increased by 0.02% and 0.03% per year, respectively. Red knot and willetdeclined by 0.02% and 0.01%, respectively.On track to meet SECAS goalNo. The increase of about 0.012% every 4 years is not enough to reach the SECAS goal of a 1% increaseevery 4 years.Data sourceInternational Shorebird Survey (ISS)Special thanks to Adam Smith (Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada)and Paul Smith (Environment and Climate Change Canada) for providing data and estimates for thisreport. Special thanks to Manomet for overall coordination of the ISS.Confidence in trendLow. All trend estimates have high statistical uncertainty. This is mostly due to low sample sizes alongthe South Atlantic and Gulf coasts.7
InterpretationThis is an indicator of beach habitat quality. The mixed trends highlight the challenges andopportunities within this ecosystem. Habitat modification, climate change, and human disturbancecontinue to pose problems, but conservation action throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts alsoseems to be making an impact. As these birds are migratory, conservation actions and threatsimpacting their populations occur both within the Southeast and in other parts of the species’ ranges.Forested wetland areaFigure 3. Millions of acres of forested wetland in 2011 and 2016.8
Table 2. State-specific percent change in forested wetland area from 2011-2016.2011 acres2016 acres% 407,2343,406,490 12Missouri774,396774,222 0.01North 04-0.25South 551,187,1600.27West Virginia19,31420,5121.24Yearly trendOverall area of forested wetlands increased by approximately 0.15% per year from 2011-2016. Thattranslates to a gain of approximately 74,000 acres per year. Forested wetland area overall alsoincreased for most states.On track to meet SECAS goalNo. The increase of about 0.6% every 4 years is not enough to reach the SECAS goal of a 1% increaseevery 4 years.9
Data sourceNational Land Cover Database (NLCD)Confidence in trendHigh. The remotely sensed data used in this indicator provides full coverage of the region and forestedwetlands typically have high classification accuracy.InterpretationThis is a coarse indicator of the overall extent of potential habitat in the forested wetland ecosystem.Extensive conservation investments in forested wetlands, policies restricting wetland development,and growing interest from urban communities in water supply protection and reducing flood risksmay be causing the increases in forested wetland area. However, forested wetland area is also verysensitive to timber management decisions and yearly weather fluctuations that facilitate or hinderharvest. It is likely that many complicated interacting factors will drive changes in this indicator in thefuture.Forested wetland birdsFigure 4. Percent of forested wetland bird species that are increasing or declining by state from 2014-2019.10
Table 3. Species trend data from 2014-2019 for each state used in Figure 4 above. Brighter colors indicatehigher llow-throatedwarblerSwainson's warblerAlabamaIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceArkansasIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceFloridaIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - HighconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceGeorgiaIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceKentuckyIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceLouisianaIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - HighconfidenceMississippiDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceMissouriIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceNorth CarolinaDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceOklahomaDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceSouth CarolinaIncrease - LowconfidenceTennesseeIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceTexasDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceVirginiaDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceWest VirginiaDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - Lowconfidence11
Figure 5. Percent of forested wetland bird species declining from 2014-2019 by Bird Conservation Region(BCR).Yearly trendMost states showed increasing trends for forested wetland bird species from 2014-2019. Speciesselected are Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need for states in the Southeast, primarilyoccur in this ecosystem, and have sufficient data for trend analysis in the Breeding Bird Survey. Highconfidence trends were statistically significant while low confidence trends were not. Averagingspecies trends across species and states results in an overall 2.1% increase per year.On track to meet SECAS goalYes. The increase of about 8.4% every 4 years is greater than the SECAS goal of a 1% increase every 4years.Data sourceBreeding Bird Survey (BBS)12
Confidence in trendMedium. Despite issues with roadside sampling and detectability for some species, the BBS is astandardized and randomized sample regularly used to estimate bird population trends. The mixedpatterns across states and the low number of trends being statistically significant (“high confidence”)suggests that overall, forested wetland birds may be stable, slightly increasing, or slightly decreasingwith major variation across states.InterpretationThis is an indicator of both local and landscape conditions across the forested wetland ecosystem.While there is variation across species and states, forested wetland birds appear to be on track tomeet the SECAS goal. This may be due to the extensive conservation investments in forestedwetlands, policies restricting wetland development, and growing interest from urban communities inwater supply protection and reducing flood risks.Gulf Coastal Prairie is the only Bird Conservation Region where more species are declining thanincreasing. There are two species that are declining in this region: Prothonotary warbler and Yellowthroated warbler. Prothonotary warbler populations in this region had been increasing from the 1960sinto the late 1990s and have been steadily declining ever since. Yellow-throated warbler populationtrends are highly uncertain in this region with wide confidence intervals and a relatively small samplesize.Gopher tortoise (Eastern population)Figure 6. Percent of gopher tortoise sites with increasing, declining, or stable trends during resurveys in 2017.13
Yearly trendMost of the sites that were resurveyed in 2017 showed an increase in gopher tortoises within theEastern population segment (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern Alabama). The Easternpopulation is a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act. The chart above showsreported population trends and is weighted by acres surveyed. Due to inconsistencies in methods andreporting, it was not possible to estimate a numerical trend.On track to meet SECAS goalUnknownData source10th Annual Gopher Tortoise Candidate Conservation Agreement reportConfidence in trendLow. Due to inconsistencies in methods and reporting, it was not possible to estimate a numericaltrend. The organizations in the Candidate Conservation Agreement report collectively own and/ormanage more than 1.3 million acres of gopher tortoise habitat. Only approximately 35,000 acres ofthat habitat was resurveyed in 2017. The areas resurveyed were also not a random sample of potentialhabitat.InterpretationThis is an indicator of both local and landscape conditions in part of the pine and prairie ecosystem.Despite the low confidence in the trend, it does appear that gopher tortoise populations areincreasing overall. Significant effort has gone into restoration and habitat protection for this speciesand, where trend data are available, it appears the species is responding positively to these actions.14
Longleaf pine areaFigure 7. Acres of longleaf pine in 2013 and 2016.Yearly trendLongleaf pine acres increased by about 4.5% per year from 2013-2016. Acreage increased during thisperiod in most states, except for Louisiana and Georgia, which had small overall declines. The latestdata from Georgia in 2017 shows an overall increase from 2013-2017. More recent data was notavailable for Louisiana. Virginia also has longleaf pine, but it was not present in the samples used forthis analysis.On track to meet SECAS goalYes. The increase of about 18% every 4 years is greater than the SECAS goal of 1% increase every 4years.Data sourceForest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from EVALIDator (last revised April 10, 2019)Confidence in trendMedium. While the longleaf sample size is small in some states, the statistically randomized design ofFIA, its long history of tracking trends, and the larger sample across all states with longleaf suggestthese data provide a reasonable estimate of the trend across the full longleaf range.15
InterpretationThis is an indicator of restoration for one part of the pine and prairie ecosystem. Longleaf pine acreagecontinues to increase. Reported longleaf establishment numbers from 2017 and 2018 also show thispositive trend.Pine and prairie birdsFigure 8. Percent of pine and prairie bird species that are increasing or declining by state from 2014-2019.16
Table 4. Species trend data from 2014-2019 for each state used in Figure 8 above. Brighter colors indicatehigher ie ease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceArkansasDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceFloridaDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceGeorgiaIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceKentuckyDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceLouisianaDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceMississippiDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceMissouriDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceOklahomaDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceNorthCarolinaDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceSouthCarolinaDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceTennesseeDecline - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceTexasDecline - HighconfidenceIncrease - HighconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceVirginiaDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceWestVirginiaDecline - LowconfidenceDecline - HighconfidenceIncrease - LowconfidenceDecline - LowconfidenceIncrease - Lowconfidence17
Figure 9. Percent of pine and prairie bird species declining from 2014-2019 by Bird Conservation Region(BCR).Yearly trendMost states showed declining trends for pine and prairie bird species from 2014-2019. Speciesselected are Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need for states in the Southeast, primarilyoccur in this ecosystem, and have sufficient data for trend analysis in the Breeding Bird Survey. Highconfidence trends were statistically significant while low confidence trends were not. Averagingspecies trends across species and states results in an overall decline of 2.9% per year.On track to meet SECAS goalNo. The decline of about 11.6% every 4 years is not on track to meet the SECAS goal of a 1% increaseevery 4 years.Data sourceBreeding Bird Survey (BBS)18
Confidence in trendMedium. Despite issues with roadside sampling and detectability for some species, the BBS is astandardized and randomized sample regularly used to estimate bird population trends. While thedeclines are only statistically significant (“high confidence”) for some of the states and species, thenumber of declining trend predictions is very suggestive of overall declines in these species.InterpretationThis is an indicator of
Defining "recent" trends We used the most recent 3-6 years of available data for each indicator to calculate the recent trend. In many cases, the time periods for various indicators do not overlap. The available data from all of the monitoring made it difficult to select a single time period as the definition of recent. For example,
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