What Size Shall It Be? - Energypedia.info
Implemented byMinistry of Energyand PetroleumWhat size shall it be?A guide to mini-grid sizing anddemand forecastingThe German Climate Technology InitiativeGIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-Grids
What size shall it be?What size shall it be?A guide to mini-grid sizing and demand forecastingHow to assess the electricity demand of acommunity and determine the appropriatesize of a new solar mini-gridAugust 2016The German Climate Technology InitiativeGIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-Grids3
GIZ ProSolarSolar-hybrid mini-gridshave the potential tobring development torural areas and profit forthe clever investor.
How do we license it?Table of contentsForeword8AcknowledgementsList of abbreviations1.Introduction3.131.1.Prospects for rural electrification1.2.Mini-grids and the relevance of accurate2.101113system sizingSizing a mini-grid1520222.1.Initial project assessment2.2.Assessment of present electricity demand2.3.Effective electricity demand and its calculations2.4.Forecasting effective demand2.5.System sizing and designTools for system sizing4336323.1Overview of existing tools for system sizing3.2.Description of mini-grid builder3.3.Description of HOMER 345462843Required information for load assessment and53Mini-grid builder 5466system sizing5
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-GridsMaintenance of batteriesat Talek Power’s mini-gridplant. Sizing the minigrid correctly is the key tosuccessful performance.6
What size shall it be?Figures and tablesFigure 1:Global map displaying the access to electricity inrural areas for each countryFigure 2:13Electricity demand of the population gaining access toelectricity in sub-Saharan Africa14Figure 3:Flow chart of the sizing process20Figure 4:Initial assessment of a project site22Figure 5:Steps in order to assess the (future) effective electricitydemand needed24Figure 6:Typical daily load profile in rural areas26Figure 7:Demand analysis and aggregation of loads of allcustomer categories of the community27Figure 8:Flow chart describing the process of system sizing36Figure 9:Illustration of different operation modes ofhybrid systems38Figure 10: Typical cost structure of a PV-diesel-batteryhybrid mini-gridFigure 11: The Anchor - Business - Community Model4041Figure 12: Graphical illustration of mini-grid builder anddata required54Table 1:Mini-grid categories for Kenya15Table 2:Multi-tier framework for access to householdelectricity supply16Table 3:Definitions of electricity demand used in this handbook21Table 4:Corrective factors and their explanation31Table 5:Explanation of load shifting and energy efficiency40Table 6:Overview of existing tools for system sizing44Table 7:Output of the mini-grid builder47Table 8:Output of HOMER497
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-GridsForewordThis handbook has been developed as part of a series of handbooks on minigrids. After the publication of handbooks on site selection (“Where shall we putit?”) and licensing (“How do we license it?”) this handbook on load assessmentand mini-grid system sizing is the third publication in the series. While the firsttwo handbooks focused on the Kenyan context, this handbook is applicable toall the various geographical contexts where mini-grids can be implemented.Practical knowledge has been drawn from the authors’ experience in mini-gridimplementation in sub-Saharan Africa.Most of the content of this handbook has general validity for load assessmentand system sizing. However, the methodology for the actual sizing (Chapter 2)is based on the approach of the mini-grid builder, an online tool developed byGIZ ProSolar in 2015, based on the experiences made with load assessment andsystem sizing of a pilot solar-hybrid mini-grid in Talek, Narok County (Kenya).It should be noted that this is just one viable approach for system sizing, someothers being mentioned in Chapter 3.Adequate load assessment and demand forecast, as well as subsequent systemsizing, is essential for the appropriate design of mini-grids. The economicviability of mini-grid projects depends on the size of the installed assets — andthus the investments — which need to be backed by a payable demand in theyears after commissioning. A wrongly configured system (too small or too large)will either not serve its purpose or not recover the costs required to set it up.We thus deem it highly important to discuss demand assessment and mini-gridsizing in this handbook.As it is easier to determine the size for capacity additions to existing schemes(e.g. hybridisation of existing diesel mini-grids with solar), this handbook focuseson the more challenging case of load assessment and sizing for new mini-grids8
What size shall it be?in areas without electricity. Such ‘greenfield’ sites represent the larger share interms of rural electrification opportunities. Furthermore, as solar-hybrid minigrids are often the most viable set-up in the sub-Saharan context, the mainfocus of this handbook is on these systems.While this handbook intends to display the required knowledge for systemssizing and demand forecast, mini-grid projects are very site specific. Theauthors of this handbook therefore do not accept any liability for commercialor investment decisions taken on the grounds of the knowledge presentedwithin. It is recommended to always conduct a proper due diligence and closelycollaborate with an expert to configure mini-grid systems appropriately.Households or smallbusiness? Mini-gridprojects are very sitespecific in terms ofcustomer mix andpower demand.9
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-GridsAcknowledgementsThe Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbHProSolar team would like to thank all partners that have been directly orindirectly involved with the production of this handbook. We express ourgratitude to the Talek Power mini-grid team for their contribution, whichhelped to better understand mini-grid system sizing and the steps of demandforecasting. Our appreciation goes also to Reiner Lemoine Institute, which hasgreatly supported the project in compiling the information for this handbook.Furthermore, special thanks go to our valued partners at the Ministry of Energyand Petroleum, the Energy Regulatory Commission and the Rural ElectrificationAuthority, as well as the county governments of Marsabit, Turkana and Narokcounties in Kenya, for availing a suitable working framework for promotingrenewable energies in the rural electrification space.The GIZ ProSolar teamMinistry of Energyand Petroleum10
What size shall it be?List of abbreviationsABC-Model Anchor-Business-Community ModelAC Alternating currentATP Ability to payBOP Balance of plantCapex Capital expenditureCOE Cost of energyDC Direct currentGDP Gross Domestic ProductGIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für InternationaleZusammenarbeit GmbHGPS Global Positioning SystemGW GigawattHOMERHybrid optimisation of multiple energy resourcesIEA International Energy AgencyIPP Independent power producerkW KilowattkWh Kilowatt hoursLCOE Levelised cost of energyMW MegawattNRECA National Rural Electric Cooperative AssociationPPA Power purchase agreementPV PhotovoltaicRE Renewable energyRLI Reiner Lemoine InstituteSHS Solar home systemTWh Terawatt hoursWACC Weighted average cost of capitalWh Watt hoursWTP Willingness to pay11
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-GridsElectrification ratesthroughout the rural areasof Kenya and sub-SaharanAfrica are low. Mini-gridshave emerged as a solutionfor rapid, cost-effective andhigh quality electrification inrural areas.12
What size shall it be?1.1. IntroductionIntroduction1.1. Prospects for rural electrificationElectrification rates in sub-Saharan Africa are low and imply a major challengefor development despite untapped renewable energy potentials. It is estimatedthat 86% of people living in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa have no access toelectricity (see Figure 1) [RECP 2014].Figure 1: Global map displaying the access to electricity (in % of population) in rural areas for eachcountry [illustration based on IEA 2015 & World Bank 2015]The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that by 2040 around 80 millionpeople in sub-Saharan Africa will gain electricity access through off-gridsystems and around 140 million people through mini-grids. This will requirethe development of between 100,000 and 200,000 mini-grids [IEA 2014]. Thesenumbers highlight the necessity for developing off-grid and mini-grid systems,which often are the only feasible solution for the supply of electricity in ruralareas of sub-Saharan Africa.In order to successfully deploy such large numbers of decentralised supplysystems and to develop financially viable projects, appropriate system sizingis crucial. The approach for demand forecasting and the guidelines for system13
TWhGIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid RuralUrban302040Figure 2: Electricity demand of the population gaining access to electricity insub-Saharan Africa [IEA 2014]sizing of solar-hybrid mini-grids provided in this handbook shall contribute tothe enhanced electrification of rural areas through mini-grids in sub-SaharanAfrica.This handbook, which allows a quick understanding of demand assessmentand system sizing for mini-grids, is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 givesa basic introduction and overview about sizing mini-grids. Chapter 2 describesthe sizing procedure for mini-grids, including a description of required data andinformation. The methods for the assessment of energy demand are explainedin detail, and the correction of the assessed demand to the effective demandis discussed. Furthermore, forecasting energy demand and recommendationson system sizing are addressed. Chapter 3 gives an overview of existing systemsizing tools, focusing on the mini-grid builder and HOMER (Hybrid optimisationof multiple energy resources). Chapter 4 entails a conclusion and some finalrecommendations to users of the tools and handbook.14
What size shall it be?1.2. Mini-grids and the relevance of accurate system sizingA mini-grid is a set of small-scale electricity generators and possibly energystorage systems interconnected to a distribution network that suppliesthe electricity demand of a limited number of customers. It can operate inisolation from national electricity transmission networks and supply relativelyconcentrated settlements or remote industries with electricity. Mini-grids canbe categorized by size as shown in Table 1 below.TypeSizeDescriptionType 1 1000 kWIndependent power producers (IPP)that are usually grid-connected and sellmost of their power to an anchor off-takerbased on a power purchase agreement(PPA).Type 2100 kW – 1000 kWDelivered usually through a publicmodel in which one authority is incharge of implementation of projectsand a corporation is in charge ofoperation and maintenance.Type 3 100 kWUsed in small but densely populatedareas. They cover small radiuses with lowvoltage distribution. Some of them do notprovide electricity at grid-quality level.Table 1: Mini-grid categories for Kenya as defined by the Energy SectorManagement Assistance Program [ESMAP 2016 ]The quality of electricity provided by the mini-grid can be equivalent to thatof the national electricity network. Nevertheless, for initial rural electrification,lower service levels (e.g. 4-8 hours of supply per day) can be considered in orderto reach the first tiers of electricity supply as defined by IEA and World Bank[2015] (Table 2). Considering lower service levels (hours) can reduce the cost ofmini-grids significantly.15
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-GridsTier 0PeakcapacityDurationTier 1Tier 2Tier 3Tier 4Tier 5PowerVery lowpower,minimum3 wattsLow power,minimum50 wattsMediumpower,minimum200 wattsHighpower,minimum800 wattsVery highpower,minimum2 kWDailycapacityMinimum12 watt-hrsMinimum200watt-hrsMinimum1.0 inimum4 hoursMinimum4 hoursMinimum8 hoursMinimum16 hoursMinimum23 hoursHourspereveningMinimum1 hourMinimum2 hoursMinimum3 hoursMinimum4 hoursMinimum4 hoursAffordabilityCost of a standard consumptionpackage of 365 kilowatt-hours perannum is less than 5% of householdincomeReliabilityMaximum14 disruptionsper weekMaximum3 disruptionsper weekof totaldurationless than2 hoursQualityVoltage problems donot affect use of desiredappliancesTable 2: Multi-tier framework for access to household electricity supply[adapted from IEA and World Bank, 2015]The combination of photovoltaic (PV) systems with a diesel genset and/orstorage system is a flexible and usually least-cost solution for rural communitieswilling to install a mini-grid for power generation. Depending on the operationmode and the components selection, high shares of PV-power can be realisedwith a diesel generator and/or a battery. The higher the shares of PV, the lowerthe dependence on diesel fuel and the influence of the diesel price on thelevelised cost of energy (LCOE). Other options can include the implementationof small wind turbines, micro-hydro power and/or biogas plants.Mini-grid operators need to cover their costs and a risk-equivalent returnthrough revenues in order to be attracted to the mini-grid business. Theaccurate prediction of electricity demand with supply will result in stable16
What size shall it be?revenues, which increases thefinancial viability of the project. Aproper business model will includea tariff structure that is alignedwith customer segments withinthe community. The tariff affectsnot only the financial status of theusers but is also the major revenuefor the mini-grid operator besideconnection fees and, potentially,grants or subsidies.The design of a mini-grid directlyaffects the cost structure of theproject and determines not only theprice of the energy produced, butalso its quality. Lack of knowledgeabout the load conditions, electricaldemand and future load growthduring the sizing process can result in: New vs. hybridized mini-gridsWhen it comes to sizing a minigrid system, a distinction betweengreenfield and brownfield projectshas to be made. In the first case, nocentral system for the electricitysupply of the community exists,while in the latter there is acentrally installed and operateddiesel generator in the communitysupplying connected customerswith electricity, which can beadditionally equipped with solar PVmodules. This handbook focusesonly on greenfield electrification,which is the most challenging casefor demand projection and sizingof mini-grids.Oversized mini-grid systems: Oversizing a mini-grid results in increasedinvestment and thus higher payback times, as well as higher operationalcosts and lower overall efficiency. Over-sizing the diesel generator oftenleads to an operation below the recommended load factor and a lowefficiency range. Furthermore, operating the diesel generator below thestated minimum load results in increased maintenance costs, in manyCommunity involvementThe analysis of local conditions and the consideration of the community’sneeds at an early stage of the system sizing are advisable. Users’ indications ontheir current electrical consumption and future needs are a key element in thedesign process of efficient off-grid systems. The involvement of the locals at allproject stages increases the chances of success for the project as satisfied usersextend the viability of the system. Local capacity building leads to increasedskills on site and lower dependence on external know-how.17
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-Gridscases even permanent damage. Furthermore, the operational mode ofan oversized system leaves no space for PV-power feed in and leads tounnecessary energy losses. Undersized mini-grid systems: Undersizing the mini-grid system resultsin an unreliable supply, leading to blackouts and reduced service quality.Unreliable supply will negatively affect customers and lead to a highdissatisfaction. Moreover, the technical components will suffer from theincorrect sizing, potentially leading to higher operation and maintenancecosts of the system. Regulatory issues may also arise when it comes topayments of the defined tariff for the provision of electricity if servicequality is low.Since both cases lead to an incorrect operation of mini-grids and lower qualityof electricity supply at higher costs, a detailed electricity demand assessmentand accurate system sizing are crucial. Demand assessment has a direct impacton the size of the components and thus the investment costs. Consideringthe characteristic of the assessed demand profile, peak demand hours andload profile characteristics can be evaluated. This is crucial for the process ofchoosing the right components in terms of size and specifying the operationmode of the mini-grid. These steps are essential for the establishment of asuccessful business case. A viable business case, in turn, is a requirement forreceiving appropriate financing for the project.Maintenance of thePV panels at TalekPower mini-grid.The lessons learnt atTalek form the basisfor this guidebook.18
What size shall it be?Lessons learnt from the Talek Power mini-gridThe Talek Power mini-grid is a pilot project set up in theKenyan rural trading centre of Talek by GIZ ProSolar inclose cooperation with the Narok County Government andGerman Agro Action. The mini-grid consists of a solar-hybridgeneration power plant combining PV modules, battery packsand a diesel generator. The power plant delivers solar power toa rural business centre and the community through a mobilemoney-enabled prepaid metering technology. The pilotproject tests the social and economic viability of mini-gridsand serves as a learning scheme for stakeholders. The minigrid has improved the lives of the people of Talek, fosteringeconomic development, education and improved health.The experiences made when developing the Talek Power minigrid have been used to establish a methodology for mini-gridsystem sizing, which serves as the basis for this handbook.Many of the lessons learnt and recommendations displayed inthis handbook are derived from the experiences made in Talek.NameTalek Power Mini-GridOwnerNarok County GovernmentTypePV-battery with diesel back-upSize40 kWp PV3210 Ah battery12,5 KVA diesel generator (back-up)DistributionLV 3-Phase (3km)MeteringPrepaid (mobile money enabled)CommissioningJune 2015Regulatory statusERC licensed for 25 yearsConnections 22019
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-Grids2.Sizing a mini-gridIn the sizing process of a mini-grid, several factors and data need to beassessed before proceeding to the size selection of the components and thefinancial evaluation. It has to be highlighted that every village and communitydiffers in terms of needs and conditions. Hence, there is not one standardisedmethodology that can be applied, but recommendations that can be used andadapted to specific cases.The steps during the sizing process can be split into the demand assessmentand forecast on the one side and the technical and financial analysis on theother. The described steps and actions to be taken are visualised in the flowchart in Figure 3. The demand assessment is the most critical step in thesystem sizing process of a mini-grid for a village or community. The results ofthe assessment have the highest impact on specifying the system size of theSite visitProjectInformationComponents selectionAssessment of present electricity n of effective demandPresentdemandSurveysForecasting of effective ITYDEMANDFigure 3: Flow chart of the sizing process20Simulation / Tool usagePROJECTDESIGN ANDCOSTS
What size shall it be?mini-grid. The various steps in this process are explained in the following subchapters 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4.The end-product of the demand assessment is a load curve in kW over time.This is then provided as input to various simulation and sizing tools, whichsometimes also require additional specific data and information. By making useof these simulation tools, a tailored technical design and financial modelling ofthe mini-grid can be provided.Understanding electricity demandDemandThe demand is the amount of power, measured in kW or MW,that the project area’s loads require, and that the distributioncompany must provide [NRECA 2011].PresentThe present electricity demand is the current electricalelectricitydemand of all the inhabitants. Where the community is not yetdemandelectrified, the present electricity demand amounts to zero. Ifresidents have solar home systems (SHS) installed or if a dieselgenerator is in place, their present electricity demand amountsto the size of their SHS and/or their diesel generator.AssessedThe assessed electricity demand is the amount of electricity thatelectricitycustomers state they would use if there was electricity at thisdemandmoment. It is assessed using surveys on site.EffectiveThis is electricity demand backed by the financial resources toelectricitypay for it. It is the demand that can actually be converted intodemandmoney. Consumer ‘effective demand’ is determined throughdata acquisition and analysis of prospective consumers [NRECA2011]. The willingness to pay (WTP) and ability to pay (ATP)influence the effective electricity demand.FutureEffective electricity demand in future years (e.g. 20 years fromeffectivenow). The forecast of effective electricity demand is estimatedelectricityby using certain socio-economic development factors.demandTable 3: Definitions of electricity demand used in this handbook21
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-Grids2.1. Initial project assessmentIn order to proceed with the demand assessment and forecast or the systemsizing, some information is necessary beforehand. Community- and customerbased data, which are specific to every project location, have to be assessed (seeAnnex 5.1). Firstly, general project information such as GPS coordinates, totalnumber of inhabitants, current local diesel price, existing centralised powergeneration systems (i.e. installed diesel generator, size and operation mode),its location and distance to the consumers, as well as available land area forpossible PV installation and its distance to the village, has to be compiled inorder to proceed in the design and sizing process.Community-basedinformationGPS coordinatesNumber of inhabitantsLocal diesel priceExisting centralisedpower generationsystemsAvailable land areaCustomer-basedinformationNames, addresses,contact detailsGPS coordinatesNumber of personsper propertyEconomic activitiesATP and WTPExisting electricalenergy supply systemsASSESSMENT OFELECTRICITY DEMANDFigure 4: Initial assessment of a project site22Customer-based informationalso needs to be gathered; thisis best done in an on-site survey.Customer-based informationbegins with recording the name,address and contact details. TheGPS coordinates are helpfulwhen it comes to determiningthe size of the mini-grid,extension of distribution gridand the connection costs ofthe customers. The number ofpersons living on each propertyand their economic activities arenecessary for the classificationinto consumer categories.Classifying potential customersinto the categories residential,commercial or industrial is veryhelpful to determine the marketcharacteristics, the economicactivities of the area, and lateron the energy demand related
What size shall it be?to the productive utilisation of electricity (such as workshops, micro-industries,or agro-industries). Existing electrical energy supply systems (solar homesystems, batteries, generators) and energy alternatives (kerosene, candles) thatare currently used by the customers also need to be listed, since they impactthe final energy demand. The source and amount of income and their abilityto pay (ATP) can depend the season as well as their current energy expenses,depending on the energy type. These factors can contribute to the calculation ofeffective demand.Furthermore, answers to standardised questions provide input to the calculationof willingness to pay (WTP). The best way to collect this information is throughan on-site survey, which can also be combined with the data collection requiredfor assessing the present electricity demand (Chapter 2.2).2.2. Assessment of present electricity demandThe present electricity demand isthe electrical energy consumedby the inhabitants at the time ofthe site visit. Where there are noelectricity supply options, noteven SHS, the present electricitydemand amounts to zero. Ifresidents have SHS installed, if adiesel generator is in place, or ifthere are solar lanterns installed,the community’s present electricitydemand amounts to the sum ofthe demand addressed by thesesystems.Present electricity demand can vary Within a day, due to variouscustomer types and theirpower-consuming activities Within a week, due to lowerbusiness activities on theweekend Within a year, due toseasonal effects in tourismand agriculture and weatherconditions Due to individualcircumstances such as powercuts, maintenance, availabilityof money etc.In the case where there isno centrally installed powergeneration source, the present electricity demand is assessed based on theindividual statements of the inhabitants participating in the site survey and isthus only an estimate. In this scenario, the assessed electrical demand does not23
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-Gridsinclude daily or monthly variations. The variance has to be considered throughthe application of certain factors (i.e. HOMER) or is neglected if the tool usedonly a daily load profile (i.e. mini-grid builder).The present electricity demand is the initial set of information required forsystem sizing of a mini-grid. As shown in Figure 5, the present electricitydemand (assessed with measurements or surveys) is complemented withinformation gathered from the on-site survey to get the assessed electricitydemand.Factoring in corrective factors such as ATP and WTP results in effectiveelectricity demand (see Chapter 2.3). Finally, applying demand forecastingtechniques delivers the future effective electricity demand (Chapter 2.4).Present electricity demand:Current electrical demand of all the inhabitantsOn sitesurveyAssessed electricity demand:Amount of electricity that customers state theywould use if there was electricity at this momentEffective electricity demand:DemandforecastingElectricity demand that is backed by the financialresources to pay for itCorrectivefactors(ATP,WTP)Future effective electricity demand:Effective electricity demand in future yearsFigure 5: Steps in order to assess the (future) effective electricity demand neededfor system sizing2.2.1. Assessing electricity demandTo determine assessed demand, surveys can be carried out on site while makinguse of standardised questionnaires that should be filled out by potentialcustomers of the mini-grid. While, ideally, information for every customeris recorded, sometimes a representative sample of the population can besufficient, which can then be extrapolated. Depending on the method for24
What size shall it be?system sizing that will be applied, various types of questions can be asked. Astandardised questionnaire can be found under Annex 5.2.2).Typical site assessment questionnaires contain a list with appliances, theirpower rating in watts and their daily use in hours. All the electrical appliancesin the household, institution or business have to be recorded. Ideally the powerrating can be found on the device itself, but typical ratings can also serve as anestimate. The time range states the duration of usage and at which time of theday the appliances are used. Especially for businesses and industries with highpower consumption, the accuracy of the time range is essential.Operating additional devices and plans for future business expansion impact theprojected effective electricity demand (Chapter 2.4) and should also be indicatedduring the survey.It has to be noted that all survey results should be viewed with caution.Participants may report false information (e.g. because they do not wantto state their real financial resources) or overestimate their future demand.The corrective factors discussed in Chapter 2.3 can address some of theseshortcomings, but others will have to be accounted for in the survey and dataanalysis phase.Practical recommendations for conducting surveys Adequate time should be scheduled in advance as conducting surveys is acostly and time-consuming process A workshop or training before data collection is recommended in order tofamiliarise with the procedure and to avoid reporting errors Supervision by experts is recommended to assess the reliability ofrecorded data Information on demand has to be crosschecked and proper judgementmust be applied, as interviewees often overestimate their (future)electricity demand A review and verification of the assessed data prior to the analysis isimportant in order to ensure a correct energy demand calculation25
GIZ Promotion of Solar-Hybrid Mini-GridsIf developers plan to use the mini-grid builder for sizing a certain mini-grid, theuse of the respective questionnaire (Annex 5.2.2) is highly recommended since itperfectly matches the input data required. If customised questionnaires are usedfor the survey, it has to be assured that the input data required by the sizing toolused are covered.2.2.2. Calculation of average daily load profileOnce the data assessment of electricitydemand is successfully completed, the dataneeds to be processed. For the aggregationof the digitalised data to the average dailyload profile and the electricity demand ofthe community, different procedures can befollowed. The appropriate approach varies,depending on the method applied for asses
2. Sizing a mini-grid 20 2.1. Initial project assessment 22 2.2. Assessment of present electricity demand 23 2.3. Effective electricity demand and its calculations 28 2.4. Forecasting effective demand 32 2.5. System sizing and design 36 3. Tools for system sizing 43 3.1 Overview of existing tools for system sizing 43 3.2.
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