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President Biden’s statements, NATO issued a communique noting, “China’s statedambitions and assertive behaviour present systemic challenges to the rules-basedinternational order and to areas relevant to alliance security.”9 This statementwas further bolstered by NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană, whoaddressed the future of NATO during a presentation at the University of ChicagoBooth School of Business. Geoană highlighted the need for NATO to adapt andbe innovative as it formulates its 2030 Strategic Concept to include addressing thethreat of authoritarian regimes like China and Russia. Importantly, he emphasizedthe importance of NATO as the longest running and strongest alliance in historyand its critical need to protect democracy, freedom, justice, rule of law, and humanrights across the globe, not just the transatlantic region. Geoană emphasizedthat Secretary General Stoltenberg would present an upgraded Strategic Conceptduring the Madrid NATO Summit in June 2022, noting that China was nevermentioned in the previous 2010 Strategic Concept.10Based upon NATO’s new focus and the pending release of the NATO 2030Strategic Concept, this paper will specifically examine the security challengesthat China poses to NATO and its alliance members. It will also highlight China’sopposition to democratic principles and its efforts to disrupt the rules-basedinternational order. Finally, the paper will identify possible actions the US can taketo help NATO and its alliance members address the China challenge to preserveNATO’s fundamental values of individual liberty, democracy, human rights andthe rule of law.49 NATO, “Brussels Summit Communiqué Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting ofthe North Atlantic Council in Brussels 14 June 2021.”10 NATO, “Deputy Secretary General Discusses the NATO Summit and the Future of Alliance.”How the Us Can Assist NATO and its European Alliance Members in Addressing the China Security Challenge

SECTION ISecurity Concerns Posed by ChinaDuring his April 2021 testimony before the House Permanent Select Committeefor Intelligence, William Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency,stressed that China is the most important geopolitical threat the US has faced inthe 21st century. Burns explained the threat was military, ideological, values-based,economic, competition, and technological.11 Most notably, Burns cited China asthe single greatest technological threat to the US.12 As such, China poses seriousconcerns to the US, NATO, and its associated alliance members.13Building a Global Military PowerAccording to Graham Allision, China President Xi Jinping has a plan for “MakingChina Great Again.”14 This starts with restoring China as the preeminent powerin Asia, whether it involves securing its borders and proximate seas or reclaimingfull control over historically Chinese territories. China wants to command therespect of other great powers in global forums based upon the precept that Chinais the center of universe.15 To achieve this plan, China needs to build a globallydominant military that can project power anywhere in the world. According tothe NATO 2030 Reflection Group, China would challenge NATO’s collectiveresilience within a decade and would eventually project military power in theEuro-Atlantic region. The Reflection Group further noted China’s large-scalemilitary modernization efforts—across all domains as well its military-civilfusion strategy—would present major risks and potential threats to NATO and itsmembers.16Under Xi Jinping, China continues to aggressively reform and build China’smiliary at an unpresented level. As explained by Allison, Xi Jinping’s emphasison reform is needed to ensure complete loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party11 Burns, “China Poses Biggest Geopolitical Test For US In 21st Century.”12 BBC News, “Chinese Man Convicted for Stealing Aviation Trade Secrets.”13 David Cattler, Interview of Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security, NATO.14 Allison, Destined for War - Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, 109.15 Allison, 109.16 NATO, “Reflection Group Final Report: NATO 2030 United for a New Era.”Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School5

(CCP) and himself.17 Notably though, Xi Jinping wants the ability to fight and winwars, which is essential for its status as a great power and its need to overcome acentury of humiliation by imperialist powers. Accordingly, China’s modernizationefforts focus on integrating intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance across allwarfighting domains; and, similar to the US, incorporating theater (geographic)commands and implementing joint doctrine.18Beyond reform of the military, China is fielding advanced military technologiesthat further project power while providing superior defense to its territory.China’s military expenditures are more than that of all Indo-Pacific countriescombined.19 Xi Jinping has significantly bolstered the People Liberation Army’s(PLA) naval, air, and missile forces to control the seas. This includes anti-shipmissiles, hypersonic missiles, smart mines, submarines, and antisatellite weaponsthat effectively give China anti-access/area denial capability along its coasts andterritories, including the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. All of this wouldmake it very difficult for the US or NATO countries to intervene in cross borderdisputes or protect global sea lanes and commerce.20 Allison noted that China’sdeclared defense spending is currently about one half the US spending and is oncourse to be equal.21In addition, China is building military bases overseas and in areas that wouldgive it a geostrategic advantage. Through China’s BRI, China has been rapidlyacquiring global ports that could be used for military operations.22 For example,China established its first-ever overseas military base at the port of Djibouti,Africa, which is located at the entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. There isgrowing concern that China’s militarization of the Djibouti port is a bellwether forChina’s intent in other strategic locations, such as Tanzania, United Arab Emirates,Pakistan, Burma, or Israel. China’s recent acquisition of Israel’s Haifa Port could17 Allison, Destined for War - Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, 128–30.18 Allison, 128–30.19 Campbell and Doshi, “How America Can Shore Up Asian Order.”20 Allison, Destined for War - Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, 131–32; Campbell and Doshi, “HowAmerica Can Shore Up Asian Order.”21 Allison and Glick-Unterman, “The Great Military Rivalry.” This evaluation uses the Central Intelligence Agency andInternational Monetary Fund metric for comparing national economies.22 G en (Ret) Curtis Scaparrotti, Interview of Gen (Ret) Curtis Scaparrotti, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe,NATO (2016 - 2019).6How the Us Can Assist NATO and its European Alliance Members in Addressing the China Security Challenge

easily provide an intelligence collection platform to monitor the US Navy’s SixthFleet.23In addition to seaports, China is building artificial islands in the South China Seawhere it has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratlys equatingto 3,200 acres of new land.24 Not only is China aggressively building and fortifyingthese islands, China’s claims to these areas have been called into question by thePermanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.25 Gregory B. Poling, Directorof the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and a fellow with the SoutheastAsia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes theseislands are used to coerce China’s Southeast Asian neighbors, like Vietnam andPhilippines, but also serve as a strategic buffer against the US and its allies. Forexample, China has deployed advanced jet fighters, anti-cruise ship missiles,surface-to-air missiles, radar and signals intelligence, and constructed hardenedfacilities and ammunition depots on these islands; thus, illustrating they are usedfor military purpose.26 The military buildup on these artificial islands occurreddespite China’s claim that they would not militarize these islands.27Cyberattacks and IntellectualProperty (IP) ThreatsNATO’s 2030 Reflection Group noted that several NATO countries attributedlarge-scale IP theft by Chinese actors and disinformation campaigns originatingfrom China.28 China’s global acquisition efforts include exploitation of academicinstitutions and talent programs, cyber hacking and theft, and investmentin US companies to obtain critical technology.29 According to John Demers,Director of the Department of Justice (DOJ) National Security Division, Chinais the primary actor responsible for the theft of US IP. Demers noted that over80% of DOJ’s economic espionage cases are tied to China. He explained that23 Xie, “China’s Global Network of Shipping Ports Reveal Beijing’s Strategy.”24 AMTI, “China Tracker.”25 I n 2016, in a case brought by the Philippines, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that most ofChina’s claims to areas within the South China Sea had no legal basis. The Chinese government subsequently rejectedthe ruling and continued to build civil and military infrastructure.26 Poling, “The Conventional Wisdom on China’s Island Bases Is Dangerously Wrong.”27 Gen (Ret) Curtis Scaparrotti, Interview of Gen (Ret) Curtis Scaparrotti, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe,NATO (2016 - 2019).28 NATO, “Reflection Group Final Report: NATO 2030 United for a New Era.”29 Blumenthal and Zhang, “China Is Stealing Our Technology and Intellectual Property. Congress Must Stop It.”Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School7

China steals IP, recreates the product, then displaces the US company in theglobal market. Demers advised that the PLA had historically engaged in cyberoperations to steal the IP, but more recently China has employed the Ministryof State Security to conduct classic insider espionage. As an example, Demershighlighted the “Thousand Talents” program as a Chinese instrument for illegallyobtaining IP.30 The program targets academics and scientists who can providesensitive IP to China under the ruse that the program is an open effort to sharecollaborative research.31 According to the US National Intelligence Council, theThousand Talents Program is providing China with “the legal and illicit transferof US technology, intellectual property and know-how to China.” As a result ofthe program, in 2017, China created 73 companies in China and recruited 11,000overseas high-level talent to China.32It is estimated that China’s efforts to steal IP cost the US between 225 and 600billion per year.33 For example, in 2014 and 2015, China penetrated the USGovernment’s Office of Personnel Management and stole the personnel files ofover 4 million current or former federal employees. Of note, this cyber operationobtained the background investigations of federal employees who held top secretclearances.34 In another example, a Chinese intelligence officer was convictedby a US court of five counts of economic espionage. The intelligence officer, whoworked for China’s Ministry of State Security, was arrested in Belgium in 2018and was subsequently extradited to the US. The intelligence officer had targetedemployees of US companies since 2013 with the aim of stealing US technology tohelp China’s economy and military.35Developing Advanced Technologiesto be the Global Leader in Space,Cyberspace, Communications and AIThe NATO 2030 Reflection Group suggested China posed grave risks in criticalsectors such as telecommunications, space, cyberspace, and new technologies. In30 National Law Review, “The Department of Justice’s National Security Division Chief Addresses China’s Campaign toSteal U.S. Intellectual Property.”31 Burgess, “China’s Thousand Talents Program Harvests U.S. Technology and a Guilty Verdict.”32 Burgess.33 Blumenthal and Zhang, “China Is Stealing Our Technology and Intellectual Property. Congress Must Stop It.”34 Gordon and Rosenbach, “America’s Cyber-Reckoning Foreign Affairs.”35 BBC News, “Chinese Man Convicted for Stealing Aviation Trade Secrets.”8How the Us Can Assist NATO and its European Alliance Members in Addressing the China Security Challenge

particular, the Reflection Group emphasized China intends to become a worldleader in AI by 2030 and the world’s leading global technological superpower by2049.36 For example, the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)reported the PLA likely spent over 1.6 billion per year on AI-related technologies,believing its AI efforts would provide an asymmetric advantage over the US. CSETfurther highlighted that China’s military-civil fusion strategy gave China a majoradvantage in obtaining advanced AI technology from its commercial sector.37 Inaddition, Pierre Delsaux, Deputy Director General at the European Commission,specifically highlighted that China is rapidly moving to dominate the spacedomain and advised during a 2021 defense forum that, “It’s something that weneed to take into account because again dominating space will mean dominatingthe world.”38This statement was further bolstered by the 2020 US Defense SpaceStrategy that noted China views space as a warfighting domain critical to modernwarfare where counterspace technologies can be used to thwart US and its alliesin an effort to win wars.39 As such, China is pursuing advanced technologiesand counterspace weapon capabilities, such as jammers, lasers, kinetic-kill oranti-satellite (ASAT) systems, and cyber-attack capabilities that could threaten USand its allies’ space assets.40Leveraging Chinese Companies as Proxiesfor Military and Intelligence OperationsAs an authoritarian state, China has a blurry public-private sector divide. Evenif a Chinese company is not owned by the state, China’s government wields anenormous influence on their operations and may use the company to achieve stategoals.The best example is Huawei Technologies. Huawei’s rise illustrates Chinesenational policy of achieving technological superiority when Huawei became thelargest global telecommunication equipment manufacturer. Although Huaweihad primarily been a telecommunications infrastructure manufacturer, it becamea major producer of smartphones wherein it was the only company that could36 NATO, “Reflection Group Final Report: NATO 2030 United for a New Era.”37 Fedasiuk, Melot, and Murphy, “Harnessed Lightning.”38 U ppal, “China to Become Global Space Power by Advancing Its ‘Space Silk Road’ Strategy to Back Its Belt and RoadPlan.”39 Department of Defense, “2020 Defense Space Strategy Summary.”40 CRS, “Space as a Warfighting Domain: Issues for Congress.”Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School9

produce all elements of a 5G network. With Huawei subsequently dominatingthe 5G market, Europe and other global markets were ready and willing to obtainHuawei 5G services.41 Unfortunately for Europe, Huawei was identified by the USGovernment as a proxy for Chinese intelligence and military operations. AmidstChina’s denials, The Washington Post published an article citing that it came intopossession of more than 100 Huawei PowerPoint presentations and many weremarked “confidential.”42 The Washington Post theorized Huawei had a greaterrole in tracking China’s population including five surveillance activities: voicerecording analysis, detention center monitoring, location tracking of politicalindividuals of interest, police surveillance in the Xinjiang region, and corporatetracking of employees and customers.43 Ultimately, the US Secretary of Defenseprioritized the Huawei concern as a serious threat to European allies that wouldessentially make their communications vulnerable to Chinese intelligencecollection efforts, manipulations, and disruption.44Expanding and Modernizing its Nuclear ArsenalAccording to commercial satellite imagery released in July and September 2021,China was developing 300 hardened underground silos to house IntercontinentalBallistic Missiles (ICBM). The ICBMs are potentially capable of delivering 10independently targetable nuclear warheads; thus, significantly increasing China’sstrategic nuclear arsenal.45 According to US Navy Admiral Charles Richard,Commander of United States Strategic Command, China’s efforts to expand andmodernize its nuclear capability was “breathtaking” and a “strategic breakout.”46Moreover, Admiral Richard stressed the US now faced two nuclear peercompetitors in Russia and China who were routinely conducting joint operationsand training together. Additionally, Admiral Richard emphasized that Chinaand Russia were developing hypersonic cruise missiles that could be capable ofdelivering nuclear warheads across the globe.4741 Kaska, Beckvard, and Minárik, “Huawei, 5G and China as a Security Threat.”42 Dou, “Documents Link Huawei to China’s Surveillance Programs.”43 Dou.44 Gould, “Esper to Allies.”45 B rumfiel, “A New Tunnel Is Spotted At A Chinese Nuclear Test Site”; Schneider, “China Sees Its Nuclear Arsenal as MoreThan a Deterrent - WSJ.”46 Adm. Charles Richard, “Space and Missile Defense Symposium.”47 Adm. Charles Richard.10How the Us Can Assist NATO and its European Alliance Members in Addressing the China Security Challenge

The US and NATO have historically not addressed China’s nuclear capabilities,believing China’s nuclear posture was minimum deterrence. Unfortunately, thisnew modernization effort shows China’s position is more assertive and is in linewith Xi Jinping’s goal of global military dominance.48China’s Belt and Road Initiative and itspurchase of European and Global PortsBRI is a Xi Jinping brain

identifiying actions the alliance can take in the 2030 Strategic Concept.6 In June 2021, NATO issued "NATO 2030," which is NATO's agenda for remaining "ready, strong, and united" for the future. During the June 2021 NATO Summit, alliance leaders agreed on the agenda to address extensive global competition,