CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE - Human Development

CLIMATE CHANGEAND AGRICULTURECAMBODIA HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2011Ministry of EnvironmentCambodia

CLIMATE CHANGEAND AGRICULTURECAMBODIA HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2011Ministry of EnvironmentCambodia

Climate Change and Agriculturein CambodiaMore than 70 percent of a population of 13.5million, or about 9.5 million people, are engagedin agriculture to some extent (FAO/MoP 2010).The vast majority are smallholder farmers.larger towns and cities of Cambodia, as well asin neighbouring countries. Migration can bean important component of wider householdlivelihood strategies and an important strategyfor coping with shocks and crises, but alsocreates its own risks and vulnerabilities.Rural livelihoods in Cambodia are diverse anddynamic. Along with farming rice, householdsjuggle a range of activities. Critically, this includesrearing livestock, harvesting fish and otheraquatic animals, and harvesting non-timberforest products. Increasingly, rural householdsare involved in off-farm employment, with somemembers migrating to find employment in theLivestock rearing is a key part of rural livelihoods,providing a means for savings in the case oflarger livestock and sources of income and foodwith regard to pigs and poultry (Tong 2009).Production remains primarily small-scale, andits contribution to total agricultural productionremains largely static, providing only 15.3percent of total agricultural product, equivalent1. Introduction UNDP/Arantxa CedilloAgriculture – and in particular rice farming – continues to play a critical role in rural livelihoods and in the cultural imaginations ofrural people in Cambodia.CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE1

to 4.32 million head in 2009 (MAFF 2010).Livestock (cattle, buffalo and pigs) has greatpotential, but is largely constrained by limitedextension and veterinary services as well asweak marketing channels throughout ruralareas. Poor livestock health is a major factor inhousehold income security (Tong 2009).At the same time, Cambodia’s freshwater capturefisheries are among the most productive inthe world (Baran et al 2006). Fishing has beencentral to rural livelihoods in Cambodia at leastsince the times of the Angkor Empire; alongwith rice farming, it holds a central place in rurallivelihoods strategies and cultural practices,involving 2-4 million rural people (Baran etal 2006), largely in small and medium scalefishing activities. Fish and other living aquaticresources are enormously important for foodsecurity and nutrition, contributing up to threefourths of animal protein in rural diets (Hortleet al 2007).In 2009, fisheries contributed 25.2 percentto agricultural sector activities and thereforeare a significant economic activity (MAFF2010). Its production is estimated using catchrecords and is stated as being between 280,000tonnes and 400,000 tonnes per year of fish(MRC 2004). These figures may overlook smallrice field and floodplain fisheries. Recentstudies suggest that total production levelsare in the region of 524,000 to 616,000 tonnesper year (Hortle 2007). The natural productionof aquatic animals in rice fields is estimated asworth at least US 100 per hectare (Hortle 2007),compared with the value of rice production atUS 150 per hectare.Overall, agriculture production in Cambodiais closely related to climatic conditions.Cambodian agriculture depends on weatherand rainfall, with over 80 percent rain-fedagriculture, while dry season rice cultivation isdone with irrigation and natural recession ofwater at the end of the flooding season (MAFF2010, SWC 2006).Many factors contribute to low productionlevels and limited economic returns. Soil fertilityGDP growth by sector before and during the global financial crisis and contributions of sectors to GDP before andduring the crisis (% of total GDP)Source: MEF, Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, March 2010 Update2CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE

is generally extremely low, with much of thecountry characterised by sandy soils (Johnstonet al 2009). Access to irrigation is limited, andquestions persist with regard to the viability ofirrigation for such soil conditions.Cambodia’s economic competitiveness arguesthat the “only sector which will provide anymeaningful cushion as a short-term crisis bufferand a medium-term recovery and growth engineis agriculture” (UNDP 2009).Farmers’ access to productive assets, primarilyland, also is extremely limited. Farmers donot have secure tenure over their land, andlandholdings are typically less than 1 hectare.However, studies suggest that gaining securetenure is the most important factor inimproving agricultural yields (Kala, Boret andKurukulasuriya 2011).The future of rice exportIn the 1960s Cambodia was one of the mainrice exporters in Asia, but production declineddramatically during the civil war. Cambodiareached rice self-sufficiency in 1995 (Nesbitt1997), although it has only recently re-enteredthe world market as a rice-exporting nation.Weak access to support services and agriculturalinputs for smallholders, as well as limited incountry agricultural processing and pooraccess to markets, further limit the realisationof economic benefits and present substantialconstraints to future development. Reliablemarket and crop information and weatherforecasting are not available.In the wake of the global food crisis of 2008,Cambodia hopes to replicate the successes ofThailand and Viet Nam in exporting rice (Radeyand Bandary 2009, USDA 2010), bringing ‘whitegold’ even more prominently into nationaldevelopment policies (RGC 2010). A recentpolicy paper on the promotion of paddy riceproduction and export of milled rice prioritisesthe following:2. Policy priorities1.2.The global food crisis is argued to have provideda “warning against the historical neglect of theagriculture sector” (Jalilian 2010).While agriculture’s share of GDP has declinedover the last 20 years as the services andindustry sectors have grown, it still remainsimportant. During the last four years of globaleconomic, food and fuel crises, for example,the agriculture sector has continued to grow,accounting for at least a third of GDP (MEF2010); in the same period, the services andindustry sectors have declined. A recent review of3.4.5.Infrastructure building and enhancementImproved provision of extension servicesand agricultural inputsLand management reformFinance and marketingExpanded farmer organisations, and institutional building and coordinationBy 2015, the country hopes to achieve arice surplus of 4 million tonnes, of which 1million would be exported (RGC 2010). Theseambitious plans have not yet fully addressedthe challenges of either human developmentor of climate change.CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE3

Water for agricultureThe lack of access to irrigation – almostuniversally identified as the major constraintto improving rice production in Cambodia– is also widely identified as a major factor infarmers’ vulnerability to climate change. Allclimate change adaptation recommendationsfor the country refer to the need for expansionof irrigation, yet the case for irrigation is notclear cut.The efficiency of existing irrigation systems isalso questionable. Major factors are related toweak institutional capacity of farmer groupsand low incentives for collective action, as wellas poor design of the schemes themselves.Ultimately, most irrigation schemes have beenfound to simply not be economically viable(CEDAC 2009). This kind of assessment clearlyindicates the kinds of challenges faced inmaking irrigation work, particularly for smalland medium-scale farmers (CEDAC 2009).However, such small- and medium-scaleirrigation systems may also face their ownlimitations, particularly in regard to the needfor collective action of farmers, and economicefficiencies for meeting export-orientedproduction.In considering the future development ofirrigation, it is therefore important to considerthe design of irrigation schemes, ensuring thatsoils are suitable and that irrigation investmentsare economically viable. Meeting irrigationneeds of farmers is perhaps more likely to berealised through smaller and medium-scalesystems, developed according to local needsand circumstances (Hoanh et al 2009, Facon2005). UNDP/Arantxa CedilloFor Cambodia, climate change is inescapably a development challenge. With huge numbers of people in the rural economy makinga large contribution to national development, the question at the heart of this challenge is rural livelihoods.4CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE

Other impacts will include:3. Projected climatechange impact onagriculture and itsimplicationsCambodian agriculture is extremely vulnerableto climate change (Mainuddin et al 2010, CISRO2008, ACIAR 2009, MoE 2010). The specificthreats of climate change for agricultureinclude: Changes in rainfall patterns. Predictionssuggest that wet seasons will be shorter,but with higher levels of rainfall, while dryseasons will be longer and drier. This willresult in shifts in the distribution of rainfallbetween areas. The changes to the lengthof seasons, combined with the delayedonset of the wet season after a longer dryseason, will affect traditional croppingpractices.Floods and droughts are major influenceson rice production in Cambodia. MoE(2010) records areas of rice crop that havebeen affected by floods and drought invarious years (see table below). Such eventshappen with some regularity, and floodsand droughts can occur in the same year(for example, 1996 and 2002). The period2000-2002 also saw three consecutive yearsof significant flooding.Floods Climate change will have significant impactson poorer rural households, as well as thecapacity to meet Government targets forincreased rice production and export. A recent economic analysis suggests thatwith a 1 oC rise in temperature, annual meannet revenue falls. The study also points outthe main factor in agricultural productivityas being security of land tenure (Kala,Boret and Kurukulasuriya 2011, Johnstonet al 2009, Peng et al 2004). Impact on riceyield is predicted to be significant. MoE(2010) shows rice yields will decrease underboth high and low emission scenarios, andwill continue to decrease within a range of20-70 percent of current production basedon different seasons and scenarios. Current agricultural techniques may not beable to cope with increased salinity that ispredicted for coastal areas. Increased incidence of livestock disease,largely associated with lack of water andgrazing land and the long distance towater sources for livestock. Because largerlivestock are an important investment andmeans of savings for farmers, these kinds ofimpacts can have serious consequences.They push people into debt and reducetheir financial safety nets, which exposesthem to an inability to access cash whenfaced with other crises. Increased incidence of pests and disease.Changes in temperature, rainfall, seasonalpatterns and changing length of thegrowing season (and ecological systems)DroughtYearArea (ha)YearArea 0002002150,0002002100,0002004300,000CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE5