Greece Is On The Downturn; Due To Its Size, Greek Shipping

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Greece is on the downturn; due to its size, Greek Shipping could become a key growth driver of the Greek economy Greek economy under protracted recession since 2008 Real GDP change (%) 5 3.0 % 0 -3.1 % Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. -0 2 % -0.2 -4.2 % -4.9 % -7.1 % -6.4 % 2011 20121 -5 -10 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 20131 How can Shipping pp g further support pp the recovery of the Greek economy? 1. Forecast Source: Eurostat 1

The study covers the classic impact as well as the broader impact of shipping cluster in Greek economy and society Banks Lawyers Brokerage Broader impact: Economic and social impact of funds from shipping activities Ship repairs Insurers (ocean-going/passenger Shipyards ship companies ports) Core Shipping Supporting companies Wider economy Quantitative study on economic impact of shipping activities Contribution to the Greek economy (in -terms) y Employment effects Investments in Greece Investments (other industries, real estate) Returns Funds earned by shipowners Donations Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Classic impact assessment: Economic impact of the shipping cluster itself Philanthropy (individual donations, foundations) Explorative study of impact generated from funds that have been originally earned from shipping activities Investments into other industries Philanthropyy Based on standard econometric model (multipliers derived from Input / Output tables) Furthermore,, the p perspective p of shipping pp g activities in Greece are part of the study 2

Impact assessment study based on a comprehensive approach incl. databases, interviews with experts and desk research 30 interviews Shipping companies Supporting companies a. Interviews BCG internal database Benchmarks for oceangoing ships' ships operating expenses ΒCG experts' input The outcome of the impact assessment study includes 2 elements 1 Assessment of the economic and social impact of Greek Shipping cluster Core Shipping companies (ocean-going, passenger, ports) Supporting companies Wider economy and society Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Database built based on four different types of sources b. Internal benchmarks 2 Recommendations for further developing Greek Shipping cluster in order to enhance its direct impact on the Greek economy c. Publicly available data 40 sources Databases Similar studies in other countries Other reports d. Best practices Global best practices State Authorities Comparative studies BCG experts 3

Greek Shipping cluster contributes 13.5Β to the Greek economy and generates 165,000 jobs Out of 13.5Β total impact, p , 6.5B directly from ocean-going shipping Out of 165,000 , total jjobs,, 140,000 , people p p employed by the Greek ocean-going shipping Economic impact ( B) Employment ('000 employees) 20 44% 15 3.4 2.3 10 7.6 150 13.4 85 71 Other 6.5 Ocean going shipping 0 3.5% 34 100 1.7 Indirect 163 30 3.0 5 % GDP 2010: 41 11.2 Direct 48% Induced 50 137 37 31 0 Total Direct 6.0% High indirect effects due to high multiplier of Services sector Given the overall GDP contraction over the last years total impact exceeds 7% of economy in 2013 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. 30% 86% 200 Wages & salaries with only induced effects Indirect Induced % total employment 2010: Total 3.5% Previous studies of the sector have estimated more than 200,000 people employed by shipping Source: Company Annual Reports 2010, analyst reports, Industry experts' interviews, BCG analysis 4

Ocean-going shipping with the highest contribution on the direct impact of the cluster Direct economic impact per type of company and type of Operating Expense B 8 10 1.0 02 0.2 76 7.6 38 3.8 6.5 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. 6 2.0 4 0.2 2 1.6 0 Ocean-going Passenger Ports Total direct impact Type of company Wages & Salaries Fuel / Lubricants Repair / Maintenance Other1 Type of OpEx 1. Including Admin expenses, insurance fees, consumables, 3rd party fees, depreciation etc. Source: Company Annual Reports 2010, analyst reports, Industry experts' interviews, BCG analysis 5

Ocean-going ship companies drive 85% of direct employment Almost same allocation of direct employment between on shore and sea 1 of Greek Shipping Direct employment p y pp g per p type of company and type of employees # of employees ('000) 40 41 4.1 1.9 37.3 19.5 Additional 14 k foreign seafarers in G k ships Greek hi 2 31.3 30 20 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. 17 8 17.8 10 0 Greek employees per ship: Ocean-going Passenger 8.9 48.8 Type of company Ports Total direct impact Seafarers Employees in Head-Quarters Type of employees 1. Employees that are based or live in Greece 2. Ships under Greek flag or other ships that are affiliated with NAT (Seamen's Pension Fund) – Alpha Bank Economic Bulletin 2009 Source: Company Annual Reports 2010, analyst reports, Industry experts' interviews, BCG analysis 6

Sea transport sector largest contributor to Greek Services Balance inflows 12-15B annual receipts from sea transport services that are provided to foreigners . represent the biggest component of Services Balance (2012) B inflows (receipts) of Services Balance 2012 Mainly from revenue generated by Greek shipping companies for transferring cargo across the world on behalf of third parties 140B cumulative during 2002-2012 10.0 38 3.8 27 1 27.1 1.5 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Sea transport inflows from Greek Shipping companies' services . 11.8 Sea transport Travel Communication Other1 Total No investment required q in Greece to drive sea transport inflows to Greece 1. Including Constructions, Insurance, Financial Services, Computer & information etc. Source: Bank of Greece, BCG analysis 7

Greek shipowners invest beyond shipping in key sectors of the Greek economy Investment rationale Investment in Shipping-related pp g sectors Main sectors Energy, Transportation, Construction Financial services Tourism Participation in biggest sectors of Greek economy Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Shipping funds Shareholding Start-ups Support of problematic and fi financially i ll challenged companies Technology Retail Asset management Real Estate Shipowners' p investments in other sectors could also support the recovery of the Greek economy Source: Press search, Interviews 8

Greek shipowners contribute further to the society through three different channels of philanthropic activity Channels of philanthropic activity Union of Greek Shipowners Individual donations Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Foundations Source: press search 9

Concrete recommendations for enhancing the direct impact coming from Greek Shipping on the country country's s economy 1 Integration of shipping in the long-term national development strategy 2 Increase enrollment in maritime schools in order to increase employment of Greeks in the shipping cluster1 3 Upgrade educational quality and establish private maritime schools 4 Simplify requirements and processes for start-ups and reduce bureaucracy 5 Stable institutional framework to maintain attractiveness in an increasingly competitive international ship registration environment and to attract further shipping activities Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Recommendations 1. In February 2013, Greek State gave the green light for the establishment of private maritime schools Source: Press search, Interviews with industry experts, BCG analysis 10

Summary of the study Greek-owned fleet is leading the World Cargo Shipping, being first in total capacity. Furthermore, Greek-owned ships under EU flags are also ranked in the first position with 42.72%1. Greek Shipping is a key growth driver and could support Greek economy's economy s liquidity, liquidity employment employment, GDP and investments The direct contribution of Greek ocean going shipping to country's economy is estimated at 6.5B 165,000 people are employed in the whole Greek Shipping cluster At least 12-15B annual contribution to the Services Balance – 140B contribution over the past decade Beyond Shipping, Greek ship-owners are investing shipping funds traditionally in other sectors of the Greek economy, further boosting the country's economic development, and contribute to the society through their philanthropic activities 5 concrete recommendations could increase the direct contributions of Greek Shipping to country's economy 1. Long-term national development strategy 2. Increase enrollment in maritime schools in order to increase employment of Greeks in the shipping cluster 3. Upgrade educational quality and establish private maritime schools 4. 4 Simplify Simplif requirements req irements and processes for start-ups start ps and reduce red ce b bureaucracy rea crac 5. 5 Stable and competitive institutional framework 1. In terms of dwt. Source: Jan 2013, IHS Fairplay World Shipping Encyclopaedia 11 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. It contributes to the Greek economy 13.4B (2010 figures), more than 6.0% of Greek GDP, and 3.5% of country's total employment annually

12 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Appendix Introduction to Greek Shipping and detailed methodology used in the study

Methodology Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Appendix Introduction to Greek Shipping 13

Greece, a country with a long tradition in Shipping Ancient Greece Initially Greeks were trading in the Aegean Sea, and gradually in Mediterranean and Black Sea g sea tradition e.g., g , Minoan etc. Civilizations with big Roman Empire Big part of sea trade done by Greeks Ottoman Empire 19th century 20th century Today Source: press search Catalytic role in the defense against Arabs and in the commercial and cultural exchanges with the West World for over 1,000 years 16th century: The Greek Sea trade is spreading due to the increasing European needs for cereals 18th century: The British British-French French wars created shortage in supply supply, which was covered by the Greek shipping business Most recognized Greek shipping areas: – In Aegean Sea: Hydra, Syros, Andros, Chios, Kasos, Psara, Spetses – In Ionian Sea (due to trade with Italy): Galaxidi, Arta, Preveza, Corfu Greek fleet contributes to the War of Independence Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Byzantine Empire During the Enlightment, Greek Ship-owners establish Greek schools and libraries The dispersion of families coming from Chios island led to the spread of Greek shipping in Europe during the Napoleonic wars After World War II, II increasing use of Greek flag From 1970 onwards, once the institutional framework became competitive and the necessary infrastructure was developed, Greek shipping companies rapidly moved their headquarters and their activities to Greece, Greek flag was also developing in a fast pace, reaching its peak in 1979, right before the big shipping crisis Greek Shipping: a global leader, in terms of capacity, with 16% of global fleet's capacity Over 3,700 ships 14

Ocean-going Ocean going shipping represents 95% 95% of Greek fleet Greek fleet, March 2013 # ships 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 636 ( (44%) ) 571 (16%) 591 (16%) 241 (7%) Passenger P shipping 320 ((9%)) Ocean going Ocean-going Passenger 140 (4%) 105 (3%) 73 (2%) 3 677 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. O Ocean-going i shipping hi i 5 000 1 000 0 Capacity1 ((Mn DWT): ) Ore & Bulk Oil Tankers Chemical & Products Cargo Pure Containers Liquid Gas Passenger Άλλο Σύνολο 127 92 21 2 19 5 0.3 0.4 265 Note: Ships over 1,000 GRT in service and currently on order 1. Data as of March 2013 Source: Greek Shipping Co-operating Committee March 2013 15

Average age of Greek-owned fleet reduced by 9 years during the past decade driven by newbuilding investments Average age1 of Greek-owned fleet Ship p scrapping pp g and investments on new ships p during 2011 Average age # of ships 25 300 282 -49% 20 20 60 Net change: 60 ships 222 200 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. 15 10 10 100 5 0 0 2000 3/1/13 # of ships retired in 2011 # of ships built in 2011 Continuous investments even during crisis for World ocean-going shipping 1. In terms of number of ships and not capacity Note: Left Hand Side graph: data from Lloyd's Register of Shipping – Fairplay - Greek Shipping Co-operating Committee March 2013 were used Source: Hellenic Chamber of Shipping, Lloyd's Register of Shipping – Fairplay March 2013, Greek Shipping Publications online database 2012, Marine Information Services 16

Greek-owned fleet is leading World ocean-going shipping against strong competitors % of total capacity (DWT) 20 20001 20111 18.1 On a European level, Greek-owned fleet is bigger than the sum of the next 3 largest European fleet markets (Germany, Norway, Denmark) 16.2 15.8 15 12.7 9.2 10 8.6 Greek flag g is important, p but Greek shipowners p prefer mostly foreign flags Capacity dwt (Mn) 300 Common practice among shipowners on a global level 265 73 (28%) 200 Greek flag 40 4.0 3.4 2.2 2.8 100 1.9 1.9 192 (72%) Ittaly Denma ark Norw way Korrea China any Germa Jap pan 0 Gree ece 37 Marshall Islands Panama 7.6 3.4 3.5 42 Malta 5.3 5 46 Liberia Other 23 Bahamas 16 Cyprus 16 6 I l off Man M Isle 2 Hong Kong Bermudas 1 Germany 0 5 Other 0 0 March 2013 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Greek-owned fleet with the highest g global g capacity, lower though vs. 2000 levels 50 Capacity dwt (Mn) % global GDP (2011)2 : 0.4 8.5 5.2 10.0 1.6 0.7 0.5 3.2 1. Data as of Jan 1st of the respective year 2. Gross Domestic Product Note: Right Hand Side graph: Due to lack of data for other countries from Lloyd's Register of Shipping – Fairplay, UNCTAD database was used as common source of data Source: UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport, 2000, 2011 , EIU, Lloyd's Register of Shipping – Fairplay March 2012 17

Greek flag among most preferred flags globally Top preferred flags for global fleet based on capacity, Jan 2013 Deadweight(Mn tonnes) 400 300 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. 200 100 Liberia Marshalll Islands Hong-Kong Siingapore Greece Malta China Bahamas B Cyprus # of ships ('000.): Panama 0 8.6 3.2 2.1 2.3 3.4 1.4 1.8 3.7 1.6 1.0 Note: Ships over 1,000 GΤ Source: IHS Fairplay/ World Shipping Encyclopaedia, Jan 2013; Clarkson Research Services March 2013 18

Due to the global economic crisis, shipping is on the downturn Crisis with a negative g impact p on global demand Increased fleet led to reduction in productivity M tonnes of load Tonnes transfer / DWT Baltic Dry Index 2010-2012 10 5.000 10 10.000 -5% 8 8.000 4.000 4.000 -1% 5 6.000 6 3.000 4 2.000 2 1.000 0 2.000 -5 0 2007 2008 2009 % of global GDP M tonnes of load Note: Baltic Dry Index Closing Daily Price Source: Naftemporiki, UNCTAD 2010 Baltic Dry Index 0 0 2007 2008 Tanker 2009 2010 April October May October March 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 Dry Low charter market indexes due to not only the reduction i global in l b ld demand db butt also l d due tto th the iincrease supply, l which was driven by high number of deliveries for orderings made in the rising period 2007-2008 19 Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. % Global GDP Dry y transfers with the highest hit

Methodology Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Appendix Introduction to Greek Shipping 20

The study was based on more than 70 interviews and sources BCG Tanker Benchmarking Initiative BCG Container Benchmarking Initiative Marine information Services Lloyd's Clarkson's EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit) Hellenic Statistical Authority Eurostat Company Annual reports 2010 International Maritime Association Bank of Greece Analyst reports (Alpha Bank) g Hellenic Chamber of Shipping Greek Shipping Publications database UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport The World Bank - Doing business 2012report Financial Times Policy Research Corporation Hill Dickinson – International Ship Registration Requirements Ernst & Young Shipping Industry Almanac 2011 Druid Entrepreneurship and innovation organizations, institutions, Systems and regions Harvard Business School The Steel And Shipbuilding Industries Of South Korea: Rising East Asia And Globalization Kyoung-ho Shin Paul S. Ciccantell A study of Korea's shipbuilders strategy for sustainable growth, Duck Hee Won g p p SingaporeSetup.com Shipping Strategy by P.Lorange, Cambridge University Press SunStar Manila newspaper Input-Output Methodology Guide, Scottish Government Center of Maritime Economics & Logistics Erasmus University Rotterdam The Economic Significance of Maritime Clusters – July 2010, Danish Shipowners' Association The economic impact of the UK Shipping Industry - Oxford Economics The Greek Shipping Register, a proposal for the Foundation of an International/ second Greek Shipping register, Andreas Merikas, Sofia S f Gialoutsi, G Nikitas Kanellopoulos Foundations websites1 30 interviews Interviews with Greek Shipowners Greek law firm UK law firm P&I club Shipyards Greek Ship brokerage Foreign Ship brokerage gg Greek Banks Biggest Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. 40 sources 1. Eugenides, Laskaridis, Latsis, Lemos, Niarchos, Onassis, Pateras, Tsakos. 21

Unique methodology for quantitative assessment Euros spent and employees based in Greece and their impact on the economy quantified in 3 effects Direct impact Direct economic contribution of companies in the core shipping cluster (ocean-going shipping, passenger shipping, ports) Expenses of the core shipping cluster spent in Greece Number of jobs based in Greece from the core shipping cluster Indirect impact Effect from core shipping activities on direct suppliers, their suppliers, pp , and so on ((assuming g constant household income)) GDP contribution in Greece in Number of jobs dependent on core shipping Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. . Induced impact Effect of core shipping activities on the wider economy including additional consumption by households from increased income GDP contribution in Greece in Number of jobs dependent on core shipping . Total impact of shipping on Greek economy 22

Methodology based on unique set of sources Direct impact Sources used to estimate expenses & employees based in Greece Comprehensive BCG benchmarking database on ocean-going shipping (covering 20 international shipping companies) Greek shipping directory covering 3 500 ships Annual reports of 10 companies and many analyst reports 20 expert interviews Unique econometric model to estimate so-called multipliers that assess core shipping's impact on the wider economy based on Input / Output tables from Eurostat Employment data from Hellenic Statistical Authority Copyright 2 2013 by The Boston Co onsulting Group, Inc. A All rights reserved. Indirect impact . Induced impact . Total impact of shipping on Greek economy 23

Summary of the studySummary of the study Greek-owned fleet is leading the World Cargo Shipping, being first in total capacity.Furthermore, Greek-owned ships under EU flags are also ranked in the first position with 42.72% 1. Greek Shipping is aGreek Shipping is a key growth driverkey growth driver and could support Greek economyand could support Greek economys's liquidity employment GDP and .

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