Water Plan: 2000-2050 - Tucsonaz.gov
WATER PLAN: 2000-2050ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWater Plan: 2000-2050 was prepared by staff in the City of Tucson Water Department’sPlanning and Engineering Division. Their dedication made this multi-year in-house effortpossible. And it is only the beginning.Water Plan: 2000-2050 was developed in cooperation with members of the City of TucsonCitizens’ Water Advisory Committee (CWAC) and its Planning and Policy Subcommittee.CWAC members graciously volunteer their time and energies to help make Tucson Water abetter municipal Utility. Past and present Subcommittee members who worked most closelywith Tucson Water’s resource planners include Francis Boyle, Sarah Evans, KeithGentzler, Stephen Popelka, David Smutzer, David Turner, and Ron Wong.Tucson Water also thanks the following individuals and organizations for their time,knowledge, and assistance. Andy Gunning, Charles Hodges, and Sandy White (PimaAssociation of Governments) and Susan Kanzler (Arizona Department of EconomicSecurity) provided information used to generate population projections within the LongRange Planning Area and Tucson Water’s projected service area.Laura Grignano, Diane Kusel, Jeff Tannler, and Virginia Welford (Arizona Departmentof Water Resources) provided helpful assistance in updating historical water-user data withinthe current bounds of the Tucson Active Management Area. Thanks also go to Thomas Carrand Don Gross (Arizona Department of Water Resources) who conducted a modelinganalysis of potential future shortages on the Colorado River and how they might impact theCity of Tucson’s annual Central Arizona Project allocation in the coming years.Holly Richter (The Nature Conservancy) generously shared the latest information on thedemand management programming for the Sierra Vista area. Dr. Julio L. Betancourt(United States Geological Survey) verified historical information on surface-water flow inthe Santa Cruz River. And last but not least, Joe Gelt (University of Arizona, WaterResources Research Center) provided historical information that helped to tell Tucson’swater-resource story.There are many unnamed others who also contributed to this effort. Those who have had tograpple with the intricacies of water-resource planning can appreciate how muchindebtedness is owed to so many. Thanks go to all of you you know who you are.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWATER PLAN: 2000-2050INTRODUCTIONWater Plan: 2000-2050 was developed to initiate a dialogue between Tucson Water and thecommunity about the water-resource challenges that must be addressed in the coming years. Tomeet future demand for water, Tucson Water’s currently available supplies must be fully utilizedand additional more expensive supplies must be acquired and developed. Various opportunities andconstraints that will impact the Utility’s ability to provide adequate supply are discussed. WaterPlan: 2000-2050 identifies several critical decisions that must be made by the community anddecision makers at key points in time. This will ensure the timely implementation of desiredprojects and programs to guarantee long-term sustainability of water resources for the TucsonWater service area.This document provides information to Tucson Water customers and other stakeholders concerningthe Utility’s resource and system plans through 2050. This report is a comprehensive revision ofTucson Water Resources Plan 1990-2100. The water resources considered within this assessmentare the same as those identified in the original plan and consist of ground water, effluent, andimported renewable water supplies delivered through the Central Arizona Project. However,regulatory changes and agreements with other local water providers have taken place over the lastfifteen years that influence Tucson Water’s ability to use these water supplies. These changes andagreements have been included within the assessment and are reflected in the available watersupplies and service commitments of the Utility. To ensure that Water Plan: 2000-2050 canaccommodate similar changes in the future, a scenario planning approach was utilized to develop ahighly-flexible, long range water-resources plan.The plan will be reassessed and revised as assumptions and circumstances change over time. Therecommendations presented will allow the Utility to achieve all of the following planning goalswhile retaining maximum flexibility. While the plan lays out pathways to maximizing renewablesupplies currently owned or controlled by the City, it also emphasizes the need to acquire additionalsupplies and to develop a more aggressive demand management program in order to sustain growththrough 2050 and beyond.ES-1
THE PLANNING GOALSWater Plan: 2000-2050 was developed with the following resource management goals: MeetProjectedTotalDemand. The Utility’s waterdemand has grown significantlyovertheyears.Currentpopulation projections indicatethat demand will continue toincrease in the foreseeablefuture.Resource and System Planning GoalsMeet Projected Total DemandUtilize Renewable ResourcesMeet Water Quality Targets Achieve Sustainable PumpageUtilize Renewable Resources.In order for the community toManage Costs and Rate Impactsbe sustainable into the future,Comply with Assured Water SupplyTucson Water needs to shiftfrom a historical reliance on“mined” ground water torenewablewatersupplies.Colorado River water delivered via the Central Arizona Project and treated municipalwastewater effluent are two currently available renewable supplies that must be utilized tothe maximum extent possible. It is also a priority to acquire additional renewable suppliesas soon as possible. Meet Water-Quality Targets. In addition to complying with federal, state, and localregulations, Tucson Water must also be responsive to the water-quality expectations andpreferences of its customers. Achieve Sustainable Pumpage. There is a quantifiable volume of ground water that isnaturally replenished each year. Pumping ground water at or below this annual rate wouldbe hydrologically sustainable and would not cause additional water-level declines andassociated subsidence. Sustainable pumping must be consistent with state regulations thatgovern the legal authority to withdraw ground water. Manage Costs and Rate Impacts. Projects and programs must be cost effective to ensurethat water remains affordable. Comply with Assured Water Supply Program. The Assured Water Supply (AWS)Program is the regulatory paradigm administered by the Arizona Department of WaterResources (ADWR) for water-resource management in the municipal water-use sector. TheAWS Program limits the amount of ground water that the City of Tucson can legallywithdraw.ES-2
PROJECTED WATER DEMANDProjected Service Area Population2000-20502,000,000Pima County1,800,000Population ProjectionLong-Range Planning Area1,600,000Tucson Water Service Area1,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000The population in the Tucson area hasincreased over time creating a growingneed for water. Projections of futurewater demand were developed toensure that the Utility can plan forsufficient water supplies to meet theneeds of the community and theresource challenges that lie ahead.600,000In order to maintain consistency withother regional planning entities, TucsonWater used the most current populationcounts and projections available.Population projections were developedfrom information provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Arizona Department of EconomicSecurity, and the Pima Association of Governments ource:Derived from PAG andU. S. Census BureauTo derive a projected total water demand for Tucson Water’s service area through 2050, theaverage amount of per capita water use was determined. Such water usage is commonly measuredin gallons per capita per day (GPCD). The total GPCD for Tucson Water’s current customer base is177 GPCD and includes water used to supply both potable and non-potable demands. By applyingthe total GPCD to projected populations, Tucson Water estimates that annual total demand willgrow from 128,521 acre-feet in 2000 to 253,000 acre-feet in 2050. A slower increase in waterdemand from 2030 to 2050 reflects a shift in population growth to areas outside of Tucson Water’sprojected service area. Reclaimed water is projected to meet at least eight percent of total waterdemand; the remaining balance is potable demand.AVAILABLE WATER RESOURCESProjected Total Demand and Resources2000-2050350,000300,000Surface Water Supplies Central Arizona Project Reallocations Excess Central Arizona Project Water Agricultural Colorado River Water Tribal Colorado River WaterGround Water Supplies CAGRD Replenishment Imported Ground Water Renewable Ground WaterEffluent Supplies City’s Effluent SAWRSA Effluent Other Colorado River WaterTucson Airport RemediationProjectGround WaterOtherReclaimedYearES-3Prior to the early 1990s, the Tucsoncommunity relied almost exclusivelyon ground water to meet water demand.Despite implementation of demandmanagement programs and the strongenvironmental ethic of Tucsonresidents, ground-water withdrawals inthe metropolitan area continued toincrease due to population growth.Rapidly declining water levels haveresulted in measurable land subsidence,increased pumping costs, and thegradual loss of natural habitat alonglocal riparian corridors.
The need to develop renewable water supplies to meet projected long-term water demand has longbeen recognized. Tucson Water Resources Plan 1990-2100 concluded that Colorado River waterand municipal effluent would need to be increasingly utilized to satisfy future demand. To achievelong-term sustainability and comply with regulations, the use of available water sources must beprioritized so that use of renewable supplies is maximized and the availability of ground water isextended.THE PLANNING PROCESSIn determining how best touseavailablewaterresources to meet projecteddemands,ascenarioplanning process was usedto develop Water Plan:2000-2050. In order toavoid the potential pitfallsofaone-dimensionalplanning approach, scenarioplanning provides a le futures as equallylikely, thus allowing greaterplanning flexibility.One-Dimensional versus Scenario e FuturesScenarioPlanningElementsCommon to A-BElementsCommon to A-DElementsCommon to A-CABCDTheprocessinvolvesbuilding pathways to eachpossible future; however, the objective is to identify the common elements that lie on thesedifferent pathways. These elements are the programs and projects that are common to each of theidentified futures. By following the path of common elements, capital investments are directedtoward projects that apply to multiple futures providing confidence that the decisions made todaywill remain viable.PATHS TO THE FUTUREThe Plan consists of a series of key decision points and sets of common elements that would beimplemented in response to each decision. There are a number of elements common to all of thepathways that lead to each of the futures. Implementing these common elements will maintainflexibility as subsequent decision points are approached and as conditions change in the future. TheRecommended Plan will be implemented by following the route of common elements.ES-4
Common ElementsPrograms: 2000-2006The following programs either have already been or will be implemented during the period 2000 to2006 and will be continued as required throughout the 50-year planning period. Acquire Additional Supplies. Additional potential sources of supply will be pursued under allscenarios. This can include obtaining additional Colorado River water, effluent, ground water,and any other water resources thatmay become available over time.Water Plan: 2000-2050 Common ElementsAcquiring additional supplies willbe a priority throughout the 502000 to 2006year planning period.Programs Acquire Additional Supplies Develop a Salinity Management Program Encourage Sewer Connections Evaluate the Effectiveness of Additional Conservation Programming Evaluate Emerging Contaminants Expand Public Outreach Provide Water-Resource Information to Planning Entities Pursue Regional Cooperation Reduce Lost and Unaccounted for WaterDevelop a Salinity ManagementProgram. An increase in themineral content of the Utility’sblended potable water supply willgradually occur over time asColorado River water and effluentare utilized. Tucson Water willpursue a program to managepotential increases in salinity inYearswatersheds located within itsprojected service area. The Utilitywill continue to participate in research on potential salinity impacts, and methods of treatment,reclamation, and/or disposal of the brine waste stream generated during treatment.20002005201020152020202520302050 Encourage Sewer Connections. To provide a greater volume of municipal wastewater effluentfor potential reuse, changes in ordinance and/or code should be considered to encourage sewerconnections to reduce the number of septic tank systems installed within Tucson Water’sprojected service area. Evaluate the Effectiveness of Additional Conservation Programming. A more aggressiveconservation program designed to reduce overall per capita usage will be evaluated. Thisprogram will address all sectors of potable water use including residential, commercial, andindustrial customers. Evaluate Emerging Contaminants. Addressing the presence of emerging contaminants incurrent and future water supplies must be further researched. This research will be increasinglyimportant as the availability of water-resources becomes more constrained over time. Expand Public Outreach. Tucson Water’s outreach program will be expanded to provideinformation and to obtain input from the public on a range of water-resource issues. Provide Water-Resource Information to Planning Entities. Tucson Water will provideinformation regarding water-resource availability to governmental entities that plan for theES-5
future of the community. These efforts will allow those entities to take into account the Utility’sability to provide water service within the context of their planning decisions. Pursue Regional Cooperation. Tucson Water will seek additional opportunities to workcooperatively with other water providers. These efforts may include acquiring additionalsources of supply, implementing an integrated regional salinity control program, and makingarrangements to distribute renewable resources within the region. Reduce Lost and Unaccounted for Water. Tucson Water will strengthen its efforts to reduceits percentage of lost and unaccounted for water.Projects: 2000-2006Most of the projects already initiated during this period have been implemented under theClearwater Program. The program was developed in the late 1990s to utilize Colorado River waterby blending with ground water through recharge and recovery facilities. The first major facilitydeveloped under this program was the Central Avra Valley Storage and Recovery Project(CAVSARP). A second storage and recovery facility, the Southern Avra Valley Storage andRecovery Project (SAVSARP), is currently under design. Between them, Tucson Water will beable to fully utilize the City of Tucson’s current annual Central Arizona Project entitlement andprovide capacity for recharging additional water supplies.Programs: 2006-2014In addition to the programs initiated by 2006, a second set of programs should be initiated between2006 and 2014. These programs include the following: Achieve Full Colorado River Water Utilization. Regardless of what final projects areselected, Tucson Water will achieve full utilization of its current Central Arizona Projectallocation by 2012. Achieve Sustainable GroundWater Pumping. As the City ofTucson brings its Central ArizonaProjectallocationintofullutilization, its reliance on groundwater will decrease. The Utility willseek to reduce its ground-waterpumping to a hydrologicallysustainable rate within the nearterm. Common Elements 2006-20142006 to 2014Programs Achieve Full Colorado River Water Utilization Achieve Sustainable Ground-Water Pumping Evaluate Effluent uate Effluent Exchanges. Tucson Water will pursue opportunities to market unusedeffluent supplies for lease or exchange with other water users within the Tucson AMA.ES-6
Projects: 2006-2014The Avra Valley Transmission Main Augmentation project in conjunction with the SpencerInterconnect Pipeline project will be implemented during this period to provide additional systemcapacity to convey renewable water supplies from Avra Valley to the Tucson basin. The addedcapacity will also provide increased redundancy to ensure potable system reliability. In addition,the capabilities of the reclaimed water system will also be expanded in order to meet futurereclaimed demand.Critical DecisionsDecision Point: 2006In 2006, two critical resource management decisions must be made regarding the use of ColoradoRiver water:Decision #1 - What is an acceptable long-term mineral content target for theClearwater blended water program?Decision #2 - Should Tucson Water expand the Clearwater recharge program bybuilding SAVSARP to maximum capacity or rehabilitate theHayden-Udall Treatment Plant to perform direct treatment?Decisions #1 and #2 must be made by 2006. The choices will determine which decision-dependentelements will be subsequently implemented. In addition, these decisions will significantly impactthe overall cost of providing water service. The new elements associated with each critical decisionare described below.Decision #1 will determine the level of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) in the Clearwater blend. Thewater recovered from the CAVSARP Well Field will maintain a mineral content at or below thecurrently targeted TDS concentration of 450 mg/L through approximately 2009. Tucson Water hasaccess to sufficient groundwater in Avra Valley to blendDecision - 2006with the water recovered fromCAVSARP to maintain thisTDS target for many years.Decision Point #1 - What is an acceptable long-term mineral content Target for the Clearwater blended water program?2006However,asadditionalColorado River water isutilized over time eitherthrough direct treatment orexpansion of the rechargeprogram (Decision #2), theability to maintain this TDSDecision Point #2 - Should Tucson Water expand the Clearwater recharge program by building SAVSARP totarget through ground-watermaximum capacity or rehabilitate the Hayden-Udall Treatment Plant to perform direct treatment?2006blending cannot be sustainedand enhanced treatment willeventually be required. TDS500 to 650 TDSRecharge & Direct TreatmentNo Enhanced Treatment500 to 650 TDS, All Recharge200020052010201520202025Years450 TDS, All RechargeEnhanced Treatment450 TDSRecharge & Direct TreatmentES-720302050
levels are not regulated as a public health issue; rather, TDS concentration can affect the aestheticquality of the water such as hardness, taste, and mineral deposits. The higher mineral content ofColorado River water was not the cause of the pipeline problems experienced with direct deliveryin the early 1990s.The choice under Decision #2 is to either expand SAVSARP to maximum capacity or torehabilitate the Hayden-Udall Treatment Plant for direct treatment of Colorado River water. Eitheroption would allow for TDS management to be conducted pursuant to the choice made underDecision #1. By 2012, Tucson Water plans to achieve full utilization of its current Central ArizonaProject allocation. This is the first critical step toward attaining water-resource sustainability for thecommunity.Decision Point: 2014Additional critical decisions must be made by 2014 concerning the long-term utilization of effluent.If other water supplies are acquired and/or if per capita water demand is significa
Water Plan: 2000-2050 was developed to initiate a dialogue between Tucson Water and the community about the water-resource challenges that must be addressed in the coming years. To meet future demand for water, Tucson Water’s currently available supplies must be fully utilized and additiona
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