Future Electricity Production In Sweden - IVA
Future ElectricityProduction in SwedenA project reportIVA Electricity Crossroads project
THE ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES (IVA) is anindependent academy whose mission is to promote the engineering andeconomic sciences and the advancement of business and industry. Incooperation with the business community and academia, IVA initiatesand proposes measures to improve Sweden’s industrial expertise andcompetitiveness. For more information about IVA and the Academy’sprojects, see the website www.iva.se.Published by: The Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA), 2017Box 5073, SE-102 42 Stockholm, SwedenTel. 46 (0)8 791 29 00IVA REPORTS: IVA publishes various types of reports within the frameworkof its activities. All reports are fact-checked by experts and then approvedfor publication by IVA’s President.PROJECT REPORTS (IVA-M): A project report summarises a significant portionof a project. A project report can be a report generated during the course ofa project or a final report produced at the end. A final report can be basedon several project reports. Project reports contain fact-based analysis,observations and a discussion of consequences. Final reports contain clearconclusions and prioritised policy recommendations. Project reports are oftenthe result of the work of a work group and contain limited conclusions andpolicy recommendations. The project Steering Committee approves all projectreports for publication and they are fact-checked by IVA to guarantee theirfactual accuracy and quality.IVA-M 488ISSN: 1102-8254ISBN: 978-91-7082-962-8Author: Karin Byman, IVAProject Manager: Jan Nordling & Karin Byman, IVAEditor: Camilla Koebe, IVALayout: Anna Lindberg & Pelle Isaksson, IVAThis report is available to download as a pdf fileat IVA’s website www.iva.se
ForewordIVA’s project Electricity Crossroads examines how the electricity system might look likein the timeframe 2030 to 2050. Future Electricity Production in Sweden is a projectreport from Electricity Crossroads which discusses various technical options that existfor Sweden’s long-term electricity supply. One point of departure has been to determinehow large the demand for electricity might be and for this the Electricity Production workgroup referred to the analysis in the “Future Electricity Use” project report.Our report contains a discussion of four alternative electricity systems, all of whichshould be regarded as extremes in their particular area in terms of expansion of resourcessuch as wind power and hydropower. The intention has been to find the limits for what atthis time, with the knowledge and experience The Electricity Production work group havetoday, believe to be technically possible to achieve. The electricity system in 2030–2050will be largely determined by which energy and climate policies are pursued as well astechnology development and the economic conditions.Stockholm, January 2016The Electricity Production work group:Andreas Regnell, Vattenfall (Chairman)Karin Byman, IVA (Project Manager)Bengt Göran Dahlman, BG-KonsultErik Thornström, Swedish District Heating AssociationGöran Hult, FortumHans Carlsson, SiemensHelena Wänlund, SwedenergyInge Pierre, SwedenergyJohan Paradis, ParadisenergiJohanna Lakso, Swedish Energy AgencyKnut Omholt, SödraLars Joelsson, VattenfallLars Gustafsson, SwedegasLars Strömberg, Chalmers University of TechnologyLars-Gunnar Larsson, SIP Nuclear ConsultingLennart Söder, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)The work was carried out in 2015 and was informed by facts known at that time as well asrelevant assessments on future technology and cost trends. The work group is well awarethat future technology leaps and changed market conditions in the future may alter thehypotheses on which the analysis and conclusions presented here are based.
Contents1. Conclusions and summary. 72. Introduction. 103. Trends and challenges on the electricity market.134. Power system properties.155. Gross potential of different production methods. 17Hydropower. 17Wind power. 18Solar power. 19Bioenergy. 19Nuclear power. 22Coordination of the electricity and heat markets. 226. Four alternatives for the electricity system 2030–2050. 23Alternative 1. “More solar and wind”. 24Alternative 2: “More bioenergy”. 26Alternative 3: “New nuclear power”. 28Alternative 4: “More hydropower”. 297. Comparison of total production costs.33Appendix 1: Glossary.35Appendix 2: Methods and assumptions. 37Calculation methods applied for the system alternatives. 37Methods for making economic comparisons of the alternatives. 39Appendix 3: Footnotes. 41Appendix 4: References. 42
6
1. Conclusions and summarySweden’s electricity system is almost fossilfree today. There is a good chance that it willbe fossil-free in 2030–2050 too and based onhydropower, biofuels, solar and wind power ornew nuclear power.Future Electricity Production in Sweden isa project report from Electricity Crossroadsand was produced by the Electricity Production work group. The assignment has involvedanalysing and presenting various alternativesto show what Sweden’s electricity supply couldlook like over the long term. The following assumptions are the basis for the analysis: The electricity system must be fossil-free overthe year. This means that within the countrythe amount of fossil-free electricity producedannually must equal the amount consumed. The analysis is based on domestic productionresources being able to meet total electricenergy load. Demand flexibility is assumed to be at least10 percent of peak load.The electricity demand that needs to be met wascalculated by the Electricity Usage work groupwithin Electricity Crossroads and is in the rangeof 140–180 TWh with estimated maximum power of 26–30 GW. The scenarios for the range inenergy and power are presented as “low”, “medium” and “high” in the report. The resultspresented show general potential with limitedattention being paid to environmental and economic aspects. The results will be further developed within the Electricity Crossroads project.This report is divided into two parts. Initiallythere is a discussion on the gross potential of different types of energy sources, after which fourdifferent extreme alternatives for the future design of the electricity system are created. Table1 shows the gross potential for different energysources, without taking into account economics or environmental aspects, and which criteriamust be met in order to fulfil this potential.Four different extreme alternatives have beencreated for the electricity system’s design 2030–2050. All of them consist of at least 65 TWh hydro-Table 1: Gross potential for different energy sources.Energy sourceProductioncapacity todayGross potentialNecessary conditionsHydropower65 TWh100 TWhExpansion in all rivers and streams that are protected todayWind power15 TWh 100 TWhAll land-based wind power projects currently in thepipeline are realised, representing 160 TWh. There is alsopotential for offshore wind power.Solar power0.1 TWh50 TWhAll suitable roofs are fitted with solar cell panels. There isalso potential in fields.Bioenergy20 TWh60 TWhNew, more efficient technology replaces conventionaltechnology in all CHP plants, operating time is increasedover the year by using condensation, and CHP is expandedin more district heating grids.Nuclear power65 TWh 100 TWhToday’s reactors are replaced by new ones.7
power, continued expansion of wind power andsolar, and increased use of biofuel-based powerproduction. One alternative consists of new nuclear and another of an expansion of hydropower. Allof the alternatives contain a mix of energy sources,but each one has a different main focus. They are:1. “More solar and wind”2. “More bioenergy”3. “New nuclear power”4. “More hydropower”One early conclusion reached in the project wasthat there are several paths for Sweden to choosefrom to achieve a fossil-free power system. Oneassumption is that domestic production must beequivalent to consumption over the year. Thismeans that Sweden is self-sufficient in energy,but not necessarily in power.In order to maintain a balance during all thehours in the year, the main alternatives may needto be supplemented in varying degrees by othersolutions, such as flexible capacity from, for example, gas turbines, imports/exports, demandcontrol or storage. Below these solutions arecalled “supplementary systems” and the four production alternatives are called “basic systems.”Below is a summary of the observations madefor each system alternative.Primary observations for“More solar and wind”In the “More solar and wind” option, variablepower sources account for to 50 percent of theannual energy. The system is able to generate alot of energy, but its ability to guarantee poweris limited. Such a system would therefore to agreater extent require various types of technical supplementary systems to handle situationswhen solar and wind power production is lowbut electricity consumption is high. The reversesituation also needs to be dealt with, i.e. whenthere is a large surplus of electricity.Examples of supplementary technical measures are: Expansion of transfer capacity – both withinSweden and to surrounding countries. A generalplan for northern Europe is also needed to8handle deficits and surpluses of electricitybetween different regions. There is a need to be able to store energy,preferably over a period of at least a few weeks,in order to save energy produced on windy daysto be used on less windy days. Seasonal storageis not necessary to even out variations in windpower generation. In addition to hydropower and CHP, additionalbaseload production capacity is needed inthe form of gas turbines or similar flexibleproduction solutions that can be on standbyand used during consumption peaks. Incentivesand opportunities for more flexible electricityconsumption are also necessary.Primary observations for“More bioenergy”The “More bioenergy” alternative has the potential to create a situation where Sweden isself-sufficient in energy and power. This systemis primarily based on domestic fuel and production being close to consumption, reducing theneed for new transmission capacity.To reach full potential, technical developmentand demonstration plants are needed for newCHP technology – both large scale plants withsignificantly higher power generation efficiencythan today’s plants, and small-scale CHP plants.To increase electricity generation from biofuelbased CHP, electricity generation needs to be independent of the heat source through the installation of extra cooling solutions. Conventionalcondensing power plants are a more expensivesolution and not as fuel-efficient.Increased investment in larger scale bioenergysolutions could be limited because there will becompetition for biomass.Primary observations for“New nuclear power”The “New nuclear power” alternative is the onethat is the most similar to today’s system. Thissystem will not require any substantial investment in new supplementary systems.Technology is being developed for a numberof new concepts. It is likely that generation 3 technology may be available in the period 2030–2040. Generation 4 could come after that. If new
Transmission capacitywithin the countryExport/importFlexible useStorage technologyGas turbines or similarflexible productionBASIC SYSTEMnuclear is to be an option, Sweden should monitor technology development and experiencesgained internationally to ensure the country havethe necessary expertise to make well-informeddecisions on which technology to choose.Building new nuclear power plants is a longterm undertaking as they have a long technicaland economic life.Primary observations for“More hydropower”The “More hydropower” alternative has the potential to create a system where Sweden is selfsufficient in energy and power. Hydropower isthe most flexible energy source and can also bestored. Annual energy generation depends onprecipitation, but the available power is not affected in the short term. A significant portionof the new hydropower capacity is in northernSweden and investment will be needed in transmission capacity southwards. An increasedshare of hydropower will result in large differences in domestic energy production betweenwet years and dry years, which will require anincreased energy exchange with neighbouringcountries.The “More hydropower” alternative in the“high” scenario would involve expansion in rivers and streams that are protected at this time.SUPPLEMENTARY SYSTEMSFigure 1: The illustration of howthe analysis differs inthe “basic system” –production facilities,and “supplementarysystems” – the technical solutions requiredfor the basic systemto work.The laws will need to be changed in order forthis to happen. Building new hydropower plantsis a long-term undertaking as they have a longtechnical and economic life.Economic comparison of the alternativesA simplified economic comparison has beenmade of the different production alternatives.The comparison is based partly on estimatesfrom Elforsk of the total production costs todayfor each technology (per kWh) and partly on estimates made by WEO (World Energy Outlook)of the cost reductions, mainly in solar and wind.A simplified analysis shows that there are onlymarginal differences between the average costsfor the different alternatives. These estimatestake into account different investment needs fortransmission capacity and reserve power. Theinvestments vary between the different production alternatives and may be considerable.As this analysis is very general, it is not only aquestion of which future electricity productionoptions are the most cost effective, but also howmuch the supplementary systems, in the form oftransmission capacity and reserve production,will cost. To gain a complete picture it is important to identify and, to the greatest extentpossible, quantify other factors and costs of significance in choosing a power system.9
2. IntroductionFuture Electricity Production in Sweden is a project report from Electricity Crossroads and wasproduced by the Electricity Production workgroup. The assignment has involved producing and analysing various alternatives for whatSweden’s electricity supply will look like in thelong term and commenting on what is needed inorder for these systems to be realised.The results presented are meant to be seen aspotential scenarios based on what is possible toachieve from a technical perspective. The systemsolutions proposed will be analysed by otherElectricity Crossroad’s work groups, primarily the Environment and Climate group and thePublic Finances and Electricity Market group.The alternative scenarios for production havealso been used to inform the work of the Distribution and Transmission group, while the Usergroup’s assessments have been a resource in thetask of designing the production system. Thus,the alternatives presented here for how to designthe electricity system serve as a “gross” versionin which limited attention has been paid to en-10vironmental and economic aspects. These willbe covered in the synthesis process, in which thefinal “paths” will be established and evaluated.The methods used in the work process and calculations are presented in Appendix 2.The different alternatives presented representa “basic system” which can supply Sweden withenergy throughout the year. All alternatives consist of a mix of different types of production.Depending on the nature of the respective production combinations, the system will need to besupplemented by various types of “supplementary systems” to maintain a power balance andensure delivery reliability. It may, for example, benecessary to invest in transmission capacity, flexible electricity production or storage technology.Based on the assessments from the Electricity Usage work group, electricity productionin Sweden will need to reach 140–180 TWh peryear, with a power demand of 26–30 GW. Therange in the alternatives is expressed as “low”,“medium” and “high” scenarios (see Appendix2. Methods).
11
12
3. Trends and challenges onthe electricity marketToday the electricity production system is evolving from large central plants with long operatingperiods over the year to smaller decentralisedones where production is largely dependent onthe weather. This transition in the structure ofthe electricity market is impacting the situationfor existing plants as well as investments in newones.Large capital-intense plants – in Sweden mainly nuclear power plants – will have fewer hoursof operating time and a lower earning capacitywhen an increasing proportion of wind powerwith very low variable costs periodically putspressure on the electricity price. The low priceof electricity will also make it more difficult toinvest in new plants. The same trend is affectingall of Europe.Sweden’s electricity production has been relatively stable over the past 20 years, but now theconditions are fundamentally changing. Electricity production today consists of about 40 percent nuclear power, 40 percent hydropower, 10percent CHP and 10 percent wind power. Windpower has increased significantly over the pastdecade, from just under 1 to around 15 TWh ayear (rolling 12 months). One important driverhas been the energy certificate system.Other changes can be expected. In October2015 Vattenfall and E.ON. announced plans toclose four nuclear reactors over the next fiveyears. They are Ringhals 1, Ringhals 2, Oskars hamn 1 and Oskarshamn 2. They have a totalinstalled capacity of 2.8 GW, which is equivalentto 30 percent of the installed capacity of nuclearpower totalling 9.5 GW. The main reason for theplanned closures is poor profitability.The fact that variable energy resources aregrowing at the same time as conventional pow-Figure 2: Electricity production in Sweden 1970–2014 TWh. Source: Energiläget i siffror, Swedish Energy Agency.200HydropowerIndustrial CHPWind powerCHPNuclear powerOther 1413
er plants are being closed is a challenge and thepower syste
IVA’s project Electricity Crossroads examines how the electricity system might look like in the timeframe 2030 to 2050. Future Electricity Production in Sweden is a project report from Electricity Crossroads which discusses various technical options that ex
on cases of citizen participation and specifically cases of e-participation in Sweden. In the concluding section of the report, the opportunities and challenges for citizen centric e-participation in Sweden are discussed. 1.2. A brief history of Sweden Sweden became fully democratized in 19
STATE OF HEALTH IN THE EU: COUNTRY PROFILE SWEDEN - 2017 Highlights . 1 Sweden STATE OF HEALTH IN THE EU: COUNTRY PROFILE 2017 - SWEDEN 1 Highlights Life expectancy in Sweden is among the highest in the EU. Both men and women enjoy the highest healthy life expectancy at age 65 of all EU countries.
What is the difference between static electricity and current electricity? Static electricity is stationary or collects on the surface of an object, whereas current electricity is flowing very rapidly through a conductor. The flow of electricity in current electricity has electrical pressure or voltage. Electric charges flow from an areaFile Size: 767KB
ES.4 Electricity Supply Mix in Latin America and the Caribbean, Various ICEPAC Scenarios 15 2.1 Electricity Production 30 2.2 World Generation Mix 32 2.3 Share of Total Electricity Production in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2005 35 2.4 Electricity Production by Subregion, 1985–2005 36 2.5 Generation
Electricity Markets—Recent Issues in Market Structure and Energy Trading Congressional Research Service 1 Introduction Electricity today is widely viewed as a commodity.1 As a commodity, electricity is bought and sold as both power2 and energy,3 with various attributes being traded in electricity markets. However, electricity has some unique characteristics which distinguish it from almost .
electricity and transmit that electricity to the grid. These EGUs may be owned by a vertically-integrated utility that also markets the electricity to retail, end-use customers or the EGUs may be owned by separate entities that sell the electricity to other companies that in turn “resell” the electricity to retail, end-use customers.
Section 2: Electricity Sector Background and GHG Trends . GHG emissions from the electricity sector are a function of the demand for electricity and the carbon intensity of the fuel used to generate electricity. Historically, power plants generated electricity largely by combusting fossil fuels. In the 1970s and early
Nama Mata Kuliah : Akuntansi Keuangan Lanjutan Kode Mata Kuliah : AKM 145001 Semester : 5 (lima) Sks/jam perminggu : 3 SKS/ 6 jam Jurusan/ Program Studi : Jurusan Akuntansi/ DIV Akuntansi Manajemen Dosen Pengampu : 1. Novi Nugrahani, SE., M.Ak., Ak 2. Drs. Bambang Budi Prayitno, M.Si., Ak 3. Marlina Magdalena, S.Pd. MSA Capaian Pembelajaran Lulusan yang dibebankan pada mata kuliah :Setelah .
