Ethiopia National Adaptation Plan
Ethiopia’s Climate ResilientGreen EconomyNational Adaptation PlanFederal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s National Adaptation PlanFederal Democratic Republic of EthiopiaAddis Ababa, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEthiopia‟s National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) builds on ongoingefforts to address climate change in the country‟s development policyframework, including the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE)strategy and the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), aswell as sectoral climate resilience strategies and regional andmunicipal adaptation plans. Its goal is to reduce vulnerability to theimpacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity andresilience. NAP-ETH aims to strengthen holistic integration ofclimate change adaptation in Ethiopia‟s long-term developmentpathway, supported by effective institutions and governancestructures, finance for implementation and capacity development andstrengthened systems for disaster risk management and integrationamong different sectors. The plan and its implementation are guidedby the principles of participation, coherent interventions, stakeholderempowerment, gender sensitivity, equitable implementation andpartnership.NAP-ETH focuses on the sectors that have been identified as mostvulnerable, namely: agriculture, forestry, health, transport, power,industry, water and urban. Within these sectors, 18 adaptation optionshave been identified for implementation at all levels and acrossdifferent development sectors, recognizing the considerable diversityin context and vulnerability across Ethiopia‟s regions and socialgroups. These options are:i
1. tivity in a climate-smart manner.2. Improving access to potable water.3. Strengthening sustainable natural resource managementthrough safeguarding landscapes and watersheds.4. Improving soil and water harvesting and water retentionmechanisms.5. Improving human health systems through the implementationof changes based on an integrated health and environmentalsurveillance protocol.6. versity.7. Enhancing sustainable forest management.8. Building social protection and livelihood options ofvulnerable people.9. Enhancing alternative and renewable power generation andmanagement.10. Increasing resilience of urban systems.11. Building sustainable transport systems.12. Developing adaptive industry systems.13. Mainstreaming endogenous adaptation practices.14. Developing efficient value chain and marketing systems.15. Strengtheningdrought,livestock&cropmechanisms.16. Improving early warning systems.17. Developing and using adaptation technologies.18. Reinforcing adaptation research and development.iiinsurance
Over time, Ethiopia aims to proactively and iteratively pursue furtherintegration of climate change adaptation in development policies andstrategies, including macroeconomic and sectoral policies andstrategies at the national level, as well as Regional and Woreda plansand strategies. To achieve this, five strategic priorities have beenidentified:1. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into developmentpolicies, plans and strategies2. Building long-term capacities of institutional structuresinvolved in NAP-ETH3. Implementing effective and sustainable funding mechanisms4. Advancing adaptation research and development in the area ofclimate change adaptation5. Improving the knowledge management system for NAP-ETHRealization of these strategic priorities is critical to enable effectiveimplementation of the options identified above.At the highest level, oversight of NAP-ETH is the responsibility of anInter-Ministerial Steering Committee, a Management Committee andthe Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MEFCC).For efficiency, financing and implementation of NAP-ETH will beled by the existing CRGE mechanisms, which are in place at national,regional and Woreda levels. However, some adjustments andinvestments will be required to ensure that the necessary personnelandcapacity n of adaptation initiatives alongside existing structuresfocusing on mitigation.iii
The estimated cost of implementing NAP-ETH over the next fifteenyears is approximately US 6 billion per year. It is expected that thesefunds will be raised from a combination of financing sources,including public and private, as well as domestic and internationalsources.The NAP-ETH monitoring & evaluation (M&E) system will trackprogress and effectiveness in achieving the anticipated adaptationoutcomes. Effectiveness will be assessed in terms of the contributionfor reducing vulnerability, improving adaptive capacity andsupporting the wellbeing of populations and ecosystems affected bythe impacts of climate change. The M&E system will supportadaptive management of the implementation process, linking to theM&E systems of the CRGE, GTP II and other relevant programs suchas the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). All actors involved s within their scope of operations.ivhavemonitoring
The preparation of NAP-ETH has been coordinated by MEFCCinvolving relevant government institutions, subject matter specialists,researchers and academicians. The NAP-ETH has been writtenthrough technical support provided by USAID-Ethiopia and UnitedStates Forest Service International Programs (USFS-IP) andInternational Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)v
TERMS AND ACRONYMSBoFEDBureau of Finance and Economic DevelopmentCHRIPSClimate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation withStation dataCIMP5Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5CRGEClimate Resilient Green EconomyCSACentral Statistics AgencyCSOCivil Society OrganizationEDRIEthiopian Development Research InstituteEEExecuting EntityEEFRIEthiopian EnvironmentandForestResearchInstituteEIAREthiopian Institute of Agricultural ResearchENSOEl Niño Southern OscillationEPACCEthiopian Programme of Adaptation to ClimateChangeEPCCEthiopian Panel on Climate ChangeFIEFederal Implementing EntityGCFGreen Climate FundGEFGlobal Environment FundGeoCLIMClimate Analysis software from the United StatesGeological SurveyGHGGreen House GasGTPGrowth and Transformation PlanICTInternet Computer TechnologyIEImplementing EntityINDCIntended Nationally Determined ContributionIPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Changevi
ITCZInter-Tropical Convergence ZoneKNMIKoninklijk Nederlands Meteoroloisch Instituut(Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute)M&EMonitoring and EvaluationMEFCCMinistry of Environment, Forest and ClimateChangeNAPNational Adaptation PlanNAPANational Adaptation Plan of ActionNDRMCNational Disaster Risk Management CommissionNGONon-Governmental OrganizationNMANational Meteorological Agency (formerly the Nat.Met. Services Agency)NPCNational Planning CommissionPASDEPPlan for Accelerated and Sustained Development toEnd PovertyPMOPrime Minister‟s OfficePSNPProductive Safety Net ProgramRCPRegional Climate ProjectionRIERegional Implementing EntitySDGsSustainable Development GoalsSLMPSustainable Land Management ProgramTEKTraditional Ecological KnowledgeTNATechnology Needs AssessmentTORTerms of ReferenceUNDPUnited Nation Development ProgramUNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChangeWASHWater, Sanitation and Hygienevii
Table of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY . ITERMS AND ACRONYMS . VIINTRODUCTION . 1PART I – PREPARATORY PHASE, DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS ANDRESULTS . 61.1 PREPARING AND LAUNCHING THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (NAPETH) PROCESS . 61.2 IDENTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY ANDADAPTATION . 121.2.1. Identification of information available and needed capacitiesfor the NAP-ETH formulation process .121.3 GAPS AND NEEDS OF THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NAP-ETHPROCESS . 161.4 CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA . 201.4.1 Rainfall patterns, variability, trends and future projections .201.4.2. Observed rainfall variability .231.4.3. Observed rainfall trend .231.4.4. Rainfall projections .271.4.5 Temperature climatology, trend and future projections.291.4.6. Observed temperature trend .301.4.6 Projected temperatures over Ethiopia .321.4.7. Observed climate extremes .351.5 DEVELOPMENT NEEDS AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES . 37PART II: NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN OF ETHIOPIA (NAP-ETH).45VIII
2.1 VISION AND STRATEGIC GUIDELINES . 452.1.1. NAP-ETH vision .452.1.2. Scope of NAP-ETH .452.1.3. Purpose of NAP-ETH .452.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATH . 462.3 GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE NAP-ETH . 502.4 FEATURES OF THE NAP-ETH . 512.5 OBJECTIVES OF NAP. 522.6 ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES . 532.6.1 NAP-ETH ADAPTATION OPTIONS .552.6.2STRATEGIC PRIORITIES.612.7 NAP-ETH COSTS. 632.8INCORPORATING ADAPTATION INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICIES ANDSTRATEGIES. 65PART III: IMPLEMENTATION .683.1 INSTITUTIONAL GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURE TO IMPLEMENT THE NAPETH . 683.1.2 Collaboration between the government and its partners .783.2 MOBILIZATION OF TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES . 783.3 COMMUNICATION STRATEGY . 793.4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN . 81PART IV: MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE NAP-ETH .904.1 OBJECTIVES AND SIGNIFICANCE OF NAP-ETH MONITORING ANDEVALUATION . 904.2 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES IN M&E . 914.3 RESOURCES AND CAPACITIES REQUIRED FOR MONITORING ANDEVALUATION .1024.4 MONITORING AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY .103IX
4.5 REVISION AND UPDATING PROCESS.1044.6 EXTERNAL EVALUATION .105REFERENCES AND SOURCES. 107List of figuresFigure 1 - Rainfall regime of Ethiopia showing sample Woredas todemonstrate the rainfall regimes . 21Figure 2 - Spatial Distribution of Mean Annual Rainfall inmillimeters (1971-2000) . 22Figure 3- Annual and Belg rainfall coefficient of variation . 24Figure 4 - Standardized annual rainfall anomaly - 1951-2010 inrelation to 1961-1990 average. . 24Figure 5 - Rainfall trend over Ethiopia (1981-2014) . 26Figure 6 - Change in average rainfall over the March-Septemberseason, comparing averages for 1997-2013 with 1981-1996 . 26Figure 7 - Percentage change in rainfall over Ethiopia under 3regional climate scenarios for three future time periods relativeto the baseline period (1975-2005) and mean rainfall for thethree regional climate scenarios. . 28Figure 8 - Mean Annual rainfall anomaly Observed and Projection in C (1900-2100), Relative to 1886-2005 . 29X
Figure 9 - Mean annual surface temperature in C . 30Figure 10 - Inter-annual variation of the mean minimum (Left) andmaximum temperature (Right) for Central Ethiopia (Top Row)and North Eastern Ethiopia (Bottom Row) . 31Figure 11 - Mean annual temperature trend in C/Decade . 32Figure 12- Change in annual mean temperature over Ethiopia underscenarios from the historical period (1975-2005) . 34Figure 13 - Mean Annual Temperature Observed and Projection in oC(1900-2100), relative to 1886-2005 . 35Figure 14 - Number of Population Affected by Major Drought inEthiopia . 36Figure 15 - Number of Population Affected by Flood in Ethiopia . 37Figure 16 - Co-implemented development programs/strategies andplans with the National Adaptation Plan Ethiopia (NAP-ETH). Error! Bookmark not defined.Figure 17 - NAP-ETH governance arrangements . 77XI
List of tablesTable 1 - Alignment of NAP-ETH with Ethiopia‟s established orongoing development efforts . 8Table 2 - Summary of the NAP formulation approach . 10Table 3 - Information availability, status and contribution to NAPETH . 13Table 4 - Capacities gap analysis . 17Table 5 - Priority sectors vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. 39Table 6 – NAP-ETH – Strategic Implementation . 85Table 7 - Roles and responsibilities in monitoring, evaluation andreporting . 92Table 8 - M&E systems in Ethiopia that relate to the NAP M&Esystem . 100XII
Table AnnexesAnnex 1 - Risks and Vulnerable sectors within each Region with theirexisting coping mechanisms . 111Annex 2 - LFA for implementation of NAP-ETH .119Annex 3 - Template that will be used for regular reviews NationalAdaptation Plan .135Annex 3.1 - National Adaptation Plan Outcome Monitoring .139Annex 3.2 - National Adaptation Plan impact monitoring .143Annex 3.3 - Summary of Prioritized Adaptation Options from AllRegions 147XIII
INTRODUCTIONEthiopia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and theunpredictability of climate variability. The country‟s adaptivecapacity is constrained by limited livelihood options for the majorityof the population, inadequate ability to withstand or absorb disastersand the prevailing biophysical shocks it faces. To address thesechallenges, there is a need for stronger climate change adaptationpolicies, programs and implementation capacity, across sectors, levelsof intervention and actors (MoA 2015; MoWE 2015).The adaptive capacity of a country can be improved by on-makingfordevelopment interventions, and prioritizing a focus on climateresilience across policies and programs. Ethiopia is on a good track,registering consistent and fast economic growth; transforming elopinginfrastructure; and addressing the challenges of the vulnerable people.The enabling climate change policy environment supports thesepositive strides. Notably, the country has developed Climate ResilientGreen Economy (CRGE) strategy and mainstreamed it into thesecond Growth and Transformation Plan (GTPII).Ethiopian government plans to move action on climate changeadaptation forward by developing and implementing this NationalAdaptation Plan (NAP), in an effort to bring about transformationalchange in the country‟s capacity to address the impacts of climatechange. The current efforts to develop this NAP are in compliance1
with Ethiopia‟s obligations under the Cancun Adaptation Framework(2010)1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC). The Framework recommended that countriesformulate a NAP as a means of identifying medium and stitutionalresponsibility for the effective implementation of NAP strategies andprograms to address those needs.Prior to 2011 when the CRGE was adopted, Government efforts toaddress climate change adaptation included: Ethiopia‟s National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA),whichidentifiedprojectwithshortto medium-termtimeframes, for implementation at regional and sectorallevels; Draft adaptation strategies for nine Regions and two cityadministrations; Sector adaptation strategies; and Ethiopia‟s Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change(EPACC)2, which outlined 20 prioritized climate changerelated impacts and the corresponding adaptation measures 07a01.pdf#page 42Ethiopia‟s Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change. Ministry of Environmentand Forest, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.2
responses, naming the federal level organization responsiblefor spearheading the implementation of the measures.The Government also outlined its commitment to climate changeadaptation in its „Intended Nationally Determined Contribution‟(INDC) submitted to the UNFCCC in June 2015. Unlike the otherdocuments, Ethiopia‟s INDC summarized short to long-termprogrammatic efforts to address reduce vulnerability of livelihoodsand landscapes to climate impacts, focusing on three key areas:droughts, floods and cross-cutting ioneddocumentsincorporate identified areas of climate change impacts, an analysis ofvulnerability, a
Ethiopia‟s National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) builds on ongoing . Implementing effective and sustainable funding mechanisms 4. Advancing adaptation research and development in the area of climate change adaptation
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LITERARY(THEORY(An(introduction((!! ClassReader! Spring2014!! Prof.DavidMiralles,PH.D.! University!of!Oregon!! Universidad!Autónoma!de!Querétaro!
