Q1 2017 CANADIAN CAP RATES & INVESTMENT And
Q1 2017CANADIANCAP RATES &INVESTMENTINSIGHTSA quarterly snapshot ofCanadian commercialreal estate cap ratesand investment trends.SELECT AN AREA TO BEGIN:NationalOverviewsCity-by-CityAnalysisCap RateSummary Sheet
CanadaINVESTMENT TRENDSQ1 2017 CAP RATESTo quote Yogi Berra, it’s déjà vu all overagain. Q1 2017 marked another quarterin which cap rates remained generallyunchanged, while several markets reportedadditional tightening. Stronger thanexpected domestic economic data coupledwith nervous anticipation surroundingEuropean elections and U.S. trade policyprovides the context for Canada’s continuedinvestment appeal.DOWNTOWN 63%qB6.72%qSUBURBAN ties National Average Cap Rate10-Yr GoC Bond YieldSpreadPaul MorassuttiExecutive Vice PresidentValuation & Advisory Serviceswww.cbre.ca/paul.morassuttiVIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP RATES* Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2017Spread - Cap Rate v 10-yr GOC Bond 10201120122013201420152016Q1 2017Cap RateRECORD LOW NATIONAL AVERAGE CAP RATE*Strip (non-anchored) 6.84%qUrban Streetfront5.50%qHigh Street3.69%tuHigh Rise A4.16%tuHigh Rise B4.83%qLow Rise A4.67%qLow Rise B5.27%qDowntownFull Service7.63%qSuburban LimitedService8.50%qFocused Service8.23%qAPARTMENTHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
CanadaDEBT MARKET TRENDSMARKET MOVERSMortgage spreads reflect the animal spiritsthat equity markets have exhibited sincethe U.S. presidential election. Lenders havestarted 2017 by inking some compressionon spreads which may be a symptom ofnew debt supply or a shortage of product.While the spread compression is helpingto mitigate an increase in underlying bondrates, positive signs in the employmentmarket may cement the belief the yieldcurve trough was reached in 2016.CAD/USDMORTGAGE RATES TO GOVERNMENT OFCANADA BONDS2016 Q12017 Q1 0.76 0.75ChangeYoY (%)q-1.20%CANADA PRIME RATE2016 Q12017 Q12.70%2.70%ChangeYoY (%)tu0.00%30-DAY CDOR2016 Q12017 Q10.88%0.91%ChangeYoY (%)p3.86%WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE 0.00%2016 Q12017 Q1 39.15 50.60ChangeYoY (%)p29.25%5-YEAR MORTGAGE SPREAD RANGE2016 Q15-Yr GoC Bond Yield10-Yr GoC Bond YieldCarmin Di FioreExecutive Vice PresidentDebt & Structured Financewww.cbre.ca/carmin.difioreVIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP RATES*Source: CBRE Limited, Bank of Canada, January 16Nov-15Sep-15Jul-15May-15Mar-155-Yr Commercial Mortgage Rate10-Yr Commercial Mortgage Rate2017 Q11.95%-2.70% 1.70%-2.35% qChangeYoY (%)-12.90%10-YEAR MORTGAGE SPREAD RANGE2016 Q12017 Q12.00%-2.70% 1.85%-2.45% qSource: CBRE Limited, Thomson Reuters Eikon[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]ChangeYoY (%)-8.51%
CanadaOFFICE INVESTMENT TRENDSREGIONAL RANKINGSSimilar to the start of 2016, National averageOffice cap rates started the year on a stable note.Nonetheless, downtown and suburban Office yieldsare each distinctly lower than the opening quarterone year ago. This is especially noteworthy after ayear in which Office asset pricing reached recordlevels in multiple markets. Downtown Class B Officeyields inflated in Q1 2017, as one Edmonton drovethe national average up by 8 bps.Yield increases for Office properties in Q1 wererealized in Alberta. The Downtown office markets inthese cities continue to grapple with the influenceof the oil and gas industry that is predominantlycentral based, which has resulted in cap rates risingabove similar properties located in Suburban areas.Edmonton saw cap rates for DowntownClass A properties leap by 6 bps in Q1 2017, while itsDowntown B and Suburban A cap rates jumped by63 bps and 13 bps respectively. Calgary also observedSuburban B yields grow by 25 bps in Q1.DOWNTOWN ACap Rates (%)QoQ Change 000100DOWNTOWN BCap Rates (%)QoQ Change 000100SUBURBAN ACap Rates (%)QoQ Change WinnipegK-WHalifaxEdmontonLondonHISTORICAL OFFICE CAP BAN B5.5%Cap Rates (%)QoQ Change 4Downtown AA & ASuburban ADowntown BSuburban BVIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP RATES9.0%7.0%5.0%3.0%-1000100
CanadaINDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT TRENDSThe Industrial sector continued to benefit fromfavorable supply-demand dynamics to post astrong Q1 2017. The average Industrial Class Acap rate compressed 3 bps, while Class B cap ratesdropped 2 bps in the quarter. Prices for Class Aassets are growing at a quicker rate than theirClass B counterparts, as Q1 2017 marked the thirdconsecutive quarter in which the spread betweenthe two classes expanded to a ten-year high of109 bps.Regionally, yields in most markets remainedaligned with year-end 2016 levels, with Torontoand Waterloo being the exceptions, as theiraverage Class A cap rates declined 25 bps and 20bps respectively. These drops positioned Torontoahead of Vancouver as the market with the lowestClass A Industrial cap rates in the nation, andWaterloo edging ahead of Ottawa and Montrealin the national rankings for the first time. Theaverage Class A cap rates in each of these marketsremained at record lows.HISTORICAL INDUSTRIAL CAP Industrial AIndustrial BVIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP RATESREGIONAL RANKINGSINDUSTRIAL ACap Rates (%)QoQ Change 000100INDUSTRIAL BCap Rates (%)QoQ Change 000100
CanadaMULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT TRENDSThe Multifamily sector experienced some of thelargest cap rate compression of any asset class inQ1 2017. The national average Apartment cap ratein each of the High Rise B, Low Rise A, and LowRise B subtypes compressed by 6 bps, 2 bps, and 7bps respectively over the course of the first quarter.Yields for each of the Apartment sector subtypesnow sit at all-time record lows.Rising home prices in markets across the countrycontinue to make the comparatively affordablerental sector an appealing option for investors. Asmuch as the expansion in housing prices has beenreported in the country’s major gateway markets, therental housing investment interest is also vigorousin secondary markets, as no increase in yieldswere recorded. Cap rate declines were observed inthe High Rise B and Low Rise B property types inToronto, which dropped a further 50 bps each. Aswell, declines in Low Rise A and B cap rates occurredin Halifax, each dropping by 13 bps.REGIONAL RANKINGSHIGH RISE ACap Rates (%)QoQ Change lK-WCalgaryHalifaxLondon8.0%6.0%4.0%0100HIGH RISE BCap Rates (%)QoQ Change 000100LOW RISE ACap Rates (%)QoQ Change CalgaryK-WEdmontonWinnipegLondonHISTORICAL MULTIFAMILY CAP 4.00%-1002.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%-1002.0%0100LOW RISE BCap Rates -14Q3-14Q2-14Q1-14High Rise ALow Rise AQoQ Change -WWinnipegEdmontonMontrealLondonHigh Rise BLow Rise BVIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP RATES8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%-1000100
CanadaRETAIL INVESTMENT TRENDSREGIONAL RANKINGSAsset pricing in the Retail sector remained strongto start the new year after a 2016 period that sawrecord levels of investment activity driven by theshift towards urban located properties. This trendof heightened investor interest in central locatedassets continued in Q1 2017, as cap rates for HighStreet, Urban Streetfront and Regional Retail werethe lowest of any sector subtype. Yields in each ofthese categories remained stable compared to endof year 2016 levels, with the exception of UrbanStreetfront which dropped 3 bps nationally.Regionally, Retail cap rates remained largelyunchanged to start 2017 with the exception ofCalgary and Edmonton. Consumer optimism inthe province seems to be gaining after StatisticsCanada reported January realizing the fifthincrease in six months for overall retail sales.The average cap rate for Urban Streetfront Retailproperties in Calgary fell by 25 bps quarter-overquarter, and in Edmonton, yields for Neighborhoodand Non-Anchored Strip Retail assets compressedby 25 bps and 13 bps respectively.REGIONALCap Rates (%)QoQ Change ap Rates (%)QoQ Change 000Cap Rates (%)QoQ Change 1003.0%6.00%URBAN STREETFRONTHIGH STREET5.50%Cap Rates (%)Cap Rates (%)VancouverTorontoMontrealOttawaNational -14Q2-14Q1-14NeighbourhoodStripStrip (non-anchored)VIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP TORICAL RETAIL CAP ncouver3.0%
CanadaHOTEL INVESTMENT TRENDSREGIONAL RANKINGSThe Hotel sector experienced steep cap ratedeclines over the first quarter of 2017, as assetpricing reflected sustained investor interest in thesector. This continued after a 2016 period that sawhigh interest from foreign and domestic buyers,and as further domestic tourism can be expecteddue to the low Canadian dollar. As a result,national average Hotel cap rates compressed ineach of the three Hotel property subtypes in Q1.Downtown Full Service, Suburban Limited Service,and Focused Service properties dropped by 9 bps,53 bps, and 6 bps respectively.Unlike in other sectors, cap rate compressionin Hotel assets took place in a larger variety ofmarkets. Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg,Calgary, and Edmonton each saw yields decline,some in multiple subtypes to start the year.Interestingly, cap rates in Vancouver and Torontoremained stable to begin 2017, a sign that investorsmay be looking elsewhere for hotel yield.DOWNTOWN FULL SERVICECap Rates (%)QoQ Change 20SUBURBAN LIMITED SERVICECap Rates (%)QoQ Change alCalgaryWinnipegHalifaxEdmonton9.0 %7.0 %5.0 %3.0 %-1200120FOCUSED SERVICECap Rates (%)QoQ Change onWinnipegCalgaryHalifaxEdmontonHISTORICAL HOTEL CAP RATES9.50%9.00%8.50%9.0%8.00%7.50%7.00%Suburban Limited ServiceVIEW ALL CANADIAN CAP Q4-14Q3-14Q2-14Q1-14Downtown Full ServiceSuburban Limited Service3.0%7.0%5.0%3.0%-1200120
VancouverINVESTMENT TRENDSAfter a strongNEW2017performance RECORDIN SIGHTin 2016,2016commercialreal estatevolumes started strongly in 2017and Vancouver looks to be on pacefor a record year.Asian capital continues to flow intoVancouver and makes up a significantportion of the buyer profile.Investors are focusing on properties withfuture upside to manage record low caprates.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICErQ/QAA3.75% - 4.00%tuA3.75% - 4.25%tuB4.00% - 4.50%tuA4.75% - 5.50%tuB5.00% - 5.50%tuA4.50% - 5.00%tuB5.00% - 5.50%tuRegional4.00% - 4.75%tuPower5.00% - 5.00%tuNeighbourhood5.00% - 5.50%tuStrip4.75% - 5.25%tuStrip(non-anchored)5.00% - 5.50%tuUrban Streetfront3.75% - 4.25%tuHigh Street3.50% - 4.00%tuHigh Rise A2.50% - 3.00%tuHigh Rise B3.00% - 3.50%tuLow Rise A2.75% - 3.25%tuLow Rise B3.25% - 4.25%tuDowntownFull Service5.50% - 6.50%tuSuburbanLimited Service6.50% - 7.50%tuFocused Service6.50% - 7.50%tuSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALRETAILAPARTMENTJim SzaboVice ChairmanNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/jim.szaboVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
CalgaryINVESTMENT TRENDSThe enthusiasmgap continues toshrink as ownerand investoropinions are coalescing around amore optimistic outlook for theCalgary marketplace.There is strong institutional interest in coreproduct on the one end of the investmentspectrum, while value-add private interest issupporting the other half of the market.Interest in the office market continues toincrease as does the amount of availableproduct. In addition to new offerings inthe Beltline, there has been an increase insuburban office opportunities.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICErQ/QAA5.25% - 5.75%tuA6.25% - 7.00%tuB7.75% - 8.50%tuA6.25% - 6.75%tuB7.50% - 8.25%pA5.00% - 5.50%tuB6.25% - 6.75%tuRegional5.00% - 5.50%tuPower5.75% - 6.25%tuNeighbourhood5.25% - 5.75%tuStrip5.25% - 5.75%tuStrip(non-anchored)6.25% - 6.75%tuUrban Streetfront5.50% - 6.00%qSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALRETAILHigh StreetN/AAPARTMENTGarry BeresExecutive Vice PresidentNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/garry.beresVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHigh Rise A4.50% - 5.00%tuHigh Rise B5.00% - 5.50%tuLow Rise A5.00% - 5.50%tuLow Rise B5.25% - 5.75%tuDowntownFull Service7.75% - 8.75%tuSuburbanLimited Service8.25% - 9.25%qFocused Service8.25% - 9.25%tuHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
EdmontonINVESTMENT TRENDSInvestor activity inEdmonton continuesCLASS Ato accelerate basedon strong demandfor Class A industrial,retail and multifamily properties.Private investors continue to dominate thelandscape and are most active in the pursuitof office and retail assets.A limited supply of core properties coulddrive yields down on best-in-class property.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICErQ/QAA5.50% - 6.00% tuA6.75% - 7.50%pB8.00% - 9.50%pA6.75% - 7.50%pB7.50% - 8.00% tuSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALA5.25% - 5.75% tuB6.75% - 8.00% tuRETAILRegional5.00% - 5.50% tuPower5.75% - 6.25% tuNeighbourhood5.50% - 6.00%Strip5.50% - 6.00% tuStrip(non-anchored)6.25% - 7.00%Urban Streetfront6.50% - 7.00% tuHigh StreetqqN/AAPARTMENTDave YoungExecutive Vice PresidentNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/dave.youngVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHigh Rise A4.00% - 4.75% tuHigh Rise B4.75% - 5.25% tuLow Rise A5.00% - 5.75% tuLow Rise B5.75% - 6.50% tuHOTELDowntownFull Service7.75% - 8.75% tuSuburbanLimited Service9.00% - 9.50%qFocused Service8.50% - 9.50%q[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
Waterloo RegionINVESTMENT TRENDSSouthwesternOntario haslong been onthe radar forToronto based investors seekinga yield premium; however, thespread that what was once 150-250bps has narrowed to 50-100 bps.Increasing demand for cash flowing productwill continue to put pressure on pricingand cap rates are expected to continue tocompress.For the investor willing to be creative, thereare value-add opportunities in core areasthat have long been dormant.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICEAArQ/QN/AA6.00% - 7.00%tuB6.50% - 7.25%tuA6.25% - 7.50%tuB7.00% - 8.00%tuA5.90% - 6.50%tuB6.75% - 7.25%tuRegional5.50% - 6.00%tuPower5.75% - 6.50%tuNeighbourhood6.00% - 6.50%tuStrip5.25% - 6.50%tuStrip(non-anchored)5.25% - 7.00%tuUrban Streetfront6.50% - 7.50%tuSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALRETAILHigh StreetN/AAPARTMENTPeter WhatmoreSenior Vice PresidentNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/peter.whatmoreVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHigh Rise A4.50% - 5.00%tuHigh Rise B4.75% - 5.25%tuLow Rise A5.00% - 5.75%tuLow Rise B5.50% - 6.00%tuDowntownFull Service8.25% - 9.00%tuSuburbanLimited Service8.25% - 9.00%tuFocused Service7.50% - 8.50%tuHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
TorontoINVESTMENT TRENDSAfter a modest start to theyear, investmentvolume and marketmomentum areincreasing. Coreproperty in Canada’s major citiesremains sought-after as a result ofglobal uncertainties.Land continues to be a significant driver ofthe investment market as demand is beingpropelled by the ongoing developmentcycle.There are a range of domestic and globalcapital sources at play, including private andinstitutional money.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICErQ/QAA4.00% - 4.50%tuA4.25% - 4.75%tuB4.50% - 5.00%tuA5.50% - 6.25%qB6.50% - 7.25%qA4.25% - 4.75%qB5.75% - 6.50%qRegional4.50% - 5.50%tuPower5.50% - 6.50%tuNeighbourhood5.00% - 6.25%tuStrip5.25% - 6.25%tuStrip(non-anchored)6.25% - 7.25%tuUrban Streetfront4.00% - 4.50%tuHigh Street3.25% - 4.00%tuHigh Rise A3.25% - 3.75%tuHigh Rise B3.50% - 4.50%qLow Rise A3.25% - 3.75%tuLow Rise B3.50% - 4.50%qDowntownFull Service5.50% - 6.50%tuSuburbanLimited Service7.00% - 8.50%tuFocused Service7.00% - 8.00%tuSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALRETAILAPARTMENTPeter SenstPresident, CanadianCapital MarketsNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/peter.senstVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
OttawaINVESTMENT TRENDSBillions ofdollars in publicand privateredevelopmentprojects are expected to be acatalyst for economic growth,while Canada’s 150th Anniversaryof Confederation shouldsignificantly boost tourism.Ottawa continues to exhibit improvingfundamentals, particularly in the Class Aoffice market which is expected to record asignificant drop in vacancy.Job growth has been robust in both thepublic and private sectors which bodes wellfor real estate fundamentals.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICErQ/QAA4.75% - 5.25%qA5.25% - 5.75%tuB5.75% - 6.25%tuA6.25% - 7.00%tuB7.00% - 7.50%tuA6.00% - 6.25%tuB6.50% - 7.25%tuRegional5.00% - 5.75%tuPower5.75% - 6.50%tuNeighbourhood5.75% - 6.50%tuStrip5.50% - 6.25%tuStrip(non-anchored)6.50% - 7.50%tuUrban Streetfront4.75% - 5.50%tuSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALRETAILHigh StreetN/AAPARTMENTNico ZentilVice PresidentNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/nico.zentilVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHigh Rise A3.75% - 4.50%tuHigh Rise B4.75% - 5.50%tuLow Rise A4.00% - 4.75%tuLow Rise B4.75% - 5.50%tuDowntownFull Service7.00% - 8.00%tuSuburbanLimited Service7.75% - 8.75%qFocused Service7.50% - 8.50%tuHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
MontrealINVESTMENT TRENDSDespite aquiet firstquarterfrom atransaction perspective, Montrealremains in the investmentspotlight due to strong real estateand economic fundamentals.A strong pipeline of mid-market assets willcome to market in Q2, which combinedwith healthy demand should put downwardpressure on cap rates and bring them closerto the national average.Lenders are showing a huge appetite forindustrial assets and to a lesser extent, foodand drug anchored retail.Q1 2017 CAP RATESDOWNTOWN OFFICErQ/QAA4.75% - 5.25%tuA5.25% - 5.75%tuB5.75% - 6.50%tuA5.75% - 6.75%tuB7.00% - 7.75%tuA5.75% - 6.50%tuB6.75% - 7.75%tuRegional5.00% - 5.75%tuPower5.75% - 6.75%tuNeighbourhood7.00% - 7.75%tuStrip5.25% - 6.00%tuStrip(non-anchored)7.25% - 8.00%tuUrban Streetfront4.50% - 5.00%tuSUBURBAN OFFICEINDUSTRIALRETAILHigh StreetN/AAPARTMENTSerge DuvalSenior Vice PresidentNational Investment Teamwww.cbre.ca/serge.duvalVIEW ALL CANADIANCAP RATESHigh Rise A4.25% - 5.00%tuHigh Rise B5.00% - 5.75%tuLow Rise A4.75% - 5.50%tuLow Rise B5.75% - 6.75%tuDowntownFull Service7.50% - 8.50%tuSuburbanLimited Service8.25% - 9.25%qFocused Service8.00% - 8.75%tuHOTEL[G L O S S A RY O F T E R M S]
HalifaxINVESTMENT TRENDSHalifaxNFOREESIGTORINVhas yet toexperienceRESERVEDan increasein foreigninvestment, but this could changeas investors become familiar withother Canadian cities and pursuenew options.Halifax looks to build momentum following2.6% GDP growth in 2016 with higher levelsof immigration and overall populationgrowth.Despite high levels of construction,additional projects on Peninsula Halifaxare on hold as the City finalizes TheCentre Plan, its blu
Calgary Halifax Ottawa Edmonton K-W National Toronto Vancouver 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% London Winnipeg Edmonton K-W Calgary Montreal Halifax National Ottawa Toronto Vancouver-100 0 100 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% London Montreal Edmonton Winnipeg K-W Calgary Halifax National Ottawa Toronto Vancouver-100
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Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns Returns Ranked in Order of Performance (as of June 30, 2019) Equity Cap Large-9.11% Equity Cap Large-11.89% Equity Cap Large-22.10% Equity Cap Large 28.68% Equity Cap Large 10.88% Equity Cap Large 4.91% Equity Cap Large 15.79% Equity Cap Large
CHAPTER 1 INTERPRETATION 1. Definitions CHAPTER 2 RATING 2. Power to levy rates Part 1: Rates policy 3. Adoption and contents of rates policy 4. Community participation 5. Annual review of rates policy 6. By-laws to give effect to rates policy Part 2: Levying of rates 7. Rates to be levied on all rateable property 8. Differential rates 9.
Ottawa National Calgary Toronto Vancouver - 800 INDUSTRIAL A Cap Rates (%) QoQ Change (bps) INDUSTRIAL B Cap Rates (%) QoQ Change (bps) *includes Windsor. A q ua qrtqelysnlqsrphlquy 6 TES A 17 NATIONAL MULTIFAMILY SUMMA
CAP RATES Cap rates are healthy in the Tampa Bay Area. According to CBRE’s Cap Rate Survey (2nd Half of 2015) Tampa is a Tier 2 market for multifamily. Cap rates for Class B suburban multifamily assets stand at 5.50% - 6.00% for Stable, 6.00% - 6.50% for Value Add and for Class C they stand
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