WINNIPEG’S QUARTERLY ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
1st quarter 2011WINNIPEG’S QUARTERLY ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTSEconomic Indicator HighlightsWinnipeg (Metropolitan Area) 1st Quarter 2011Q1 2011IN THIS ISSUE1 Economic IndicatorHighlights2Trends in 20114Labour Force Data5 Real Estate & BuildingData6Other rBetterCloserBrighterRicher2011 Outlook*(% Change from 05.60.10.1Gross Domestic Product at BasicPrices (Annual Millions 2002)* 26,0322.02.0Retail Sales (Annual Millions)* 10,0572.72.7Personal Disposable IncomePer Capita (Annual )* 29,6540.50.5116.92.31.7Total Building Permits Value( Millions) 299,63026.0-Average Residential DetachedHousing Price ( ) 238,9877.2-490-26.1-Unemployment Rate (%)3 Select CityComparisons% Changefrom Q1 2010Consumer Price Index(2002 100)Housing StartsNote:* Conference Board of Canada’s annual projections. Subject to adjustments in subsequent projections.**Statistics Canada Annual Estimates. CMA PopulationSource: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) andWinnipegREALTORS July 2011 1Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
trends in 2011CANADAThe Conference Board of Canada, in their Spring 2011 MetropolitanOutlook, projects real GDP growth in Canada of 2.0% in 2011. TheCanadian economy is expected to face many of the same challengesfrom the fourth quarter of 2010 including a slow recovering U.S.economy, a slower housing market, lower employment growth andweaker consumer confidence. The Conference Board projects growthin real consumer spending will slow to between 2.0 and 2.5% froman annualized rate of 4%; it is also anticipated growth in disposableincome will drop below 1% this year. Of crucial importance to Canada’seconomic fortunes will be the continued revitalization of the U.S. andglobal economies. The Conference Board of Canada projects Canada’sGDP growth will advance by 2.7% within 2012.Statistics Canada reported Canada’s real GDP advanced by 1.0% withinthe first quarter of 2011. Final domestic demand rose 0.6% as consumerspending on goods and services was virtually unchanged in the firstquarter, after increasing 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Businessinvestment in plant and equipment increased 3.2%, the fifth consecutivequarterly expansion. Canadian exports grew 1.6% within the firstquarter following a 2.1% increase in the previous quarter. Imports alsoincreased at 2.2%, after dipping 0.1% in the previous quarter. All majorindustrial sectors, except for retail trade and arts, entertainment andrecreation, increased their output in the first quarter. Expressed at anannualized rate, real GDP in the first quarter grew 3.9%, after expanding3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010.In 2011, the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. currencyranged from 99 cents at the beginning of the year to 93 cents at theend of the second quarter. Currently the Canadian dollar is valued at 1.06 U.S. The world price of oil averaged around 94 (WTI, US /barrel)in the first quarter, up 11% from the previous quarter. Currently, theWTO price of oil averages 96 (WTI, US /barrel). The price of natural gasaveraged 4.18 (US /mmbtu) during the first quarter of 2011; currentlyvalued around 4.30. Among other commodities, the market value ofall precious and non-precious metals and minerals increased in thefirst quarter. The same applies to lumber and both grain and animalagricultural products.The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate of 1.0% remains unchanged fromthe third quarter of 2010 to the present day. The prime rate of 3.0% fromSeptember 2010 also remains unchanged. Canada’s benchmark 10-yearbonds yield averaged 3.31%, three-month treasury bills averaged near0.96%. Canada’s inflation rate was 2.6% during the first quarter of 2011.During the first quarter national employment increased by 1.7% whilelabour force grew by 1.1%. The national unemployment rate in the firstquarter dropped to 7.8% from 8.0% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Thenational unemployment rate currently sits at 7.4%In their Spring 2011 Metropolitan Outlook, The Conference Board ofCanada forecasts real GDP growth for Winnipeg in 2011 of 2.0%. AlthoughWinnipeg’s GDP growth was below the Canadian average in 2010, hasset the stage for recovery of the local economy. The Conference Boardpredicts Winnipeg’s economy will keep pace with the national average inthe coming years with growth of 2.4% in 2012 and 2.8% in 2013.Within the first quarter of 2011, Winnipeg’s employment grew by 3.3%while the unemployment rate was 5.6%. The Conference Board is jobprojecting employment growth in Winnipeg of 1.0% this year withjobs gains in several areas of the economy. It’s anticipated Winnipeg’smanufacturing sector will experience positive growth in 2011 aftersuffering in the past three years. The aerospace sector continues toprogress with new investments by industry leaders including Boeing,StandardAero and Bristol Aerospace. Winnipeg’s construction activityremains strong with current activities such as the new Ikea development,Canadian Museum for Human Rights, Disraeli bridge construction andthe Chief Peguis Trail extension. Recently announced projects, includingStantec’s new downtown head office with an ALT hotel and WinnipegConvention Centre expansion, are positive developments for the industry.Retail sales in Manitoba and Winnipeg continue to grow as Manitoba’sfirst quarter retail sales improved 1.5% from the previous quarter. TheConference Board of Canada predicts Winnipeg’s retail sales will growby nearly 3% in 2011, which is similar to the national average.Growth of Winnipeg’s residential and non-residential building permitvalues surpassed the Canadian average within the first quarter of 2011at 26%. Building permit values posted strong growth in all market areaswith the exception of commercial activity. After a solid year of growthin 2010, Winnipeg’s residential building permit values advanced by 32%within the first quarter from the same period in 2010.Winnipeg Realtors reported the number of homes sold during the firstquarter of 2011 was up 10% from the same period in 2010. With highersales, year-to-date dollar volume within the first quarter also improved(15%) from 2010 despite the continued rise in average home prices,which advanced 7% within the first quarter of 2011. MLS listings werealso higher within the first quarter of 2011 from the same period lastyear.The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics reported strong growth in Manitoba’sexports of 29.7% within the first quarter of 2011. The strongest demandfrom the United States came from western and mid-western states.Within the first quarter, exports improved for nickel, medicaments,petroleum products and various agricultural commodities such asgrains, livestock and vegetables. Manitoba’s manufacturing shipmentsalso posted strong growth within the first quarter of 2011 of 9% after acouple of difficult years.WINNIPEGJuly 2011 2Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
Select City ComparisonsCalgary3.4CalgaryReginaProjected Real GrossEdmontonDomestic ProductAnnual PercentTorontoChange2010 - 2011HalifaxSelect Metropolitan AreasRegina CalgaryEdmontonReginaQuebec CityOttawaMontrealMontrealWinnipeg00Source: Conference Board of Canada –Percent change12.142.0 3Percent change23Percent change547.2Regina WinnipegTorontoHalilfax4.2Halilfax awa 1.97.26.05.85.84.22.44.22.41.90426 -1.8EdmontonSource: cent5.1ReginaQuebec CityQuebec CityWinnipegReginaWinnipegQuebec OttawaOttawa CalgaryHalifaxHalifax ronto Montreal12Source: Statistics Canada0Toronto3 1 4 2 5.66.16.65.86.66.7HalifaxMontreal016.96.0Regina 5.8-1.8 Edmonton erEdmonton54VancouverReginaUnemployment RateSelect Metropolitan AreasQ1 20112.22.032Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2011Average House PricesVancouverAnnual Percent Change2010 - 2011WinnipegSelect Metropolitan Areas2.32.12.0212.42.22.1Winnipeg ebec City3.12.52.4Halifax3.12.82.5Quebec CityVancouver3.43.12.8Halifax .16.16.76.67.96.77.98.28.28.43 64 7 5 8 6 9Percent2345Percent7.98.47 10 8July 2011 68.297108.489103Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
Labour Force Indicators(1st quarter year-to-date)WINNIPEGQ1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD% CHANGE YTDPopulation 15 years plus (000)619.7598.03.6Labour Force (000)433.0419.23.3Employment .1Participation Rate*69.970.1-0.2*Employment Rate*66.066.2-0.2Q1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD% Change YTDUnemployment (000)Not in Labour Force (000)Unemployment Rate*ManitobaPopulation 15 years plus (000)949.0930.62.0Labour Force (000)660.3646.52.1Employment 0*Participation Rate*69.669.50.1*Employment Rate*65.965.80.1*Q1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD% Change YTDPopulation 15 years plus (000)27,865.527,554.41.1Labour Force (000)18,668.418,466.41.1Employment (000)17,224.116,944.31.7Unemployment (000)1,444.41,522.1-5.1Not in Labour Force (000)9,197.19,088.01.27.88.2-0.4Participation Rate*67.067.00.0*Employment Rate*61.861.50.3*Unemployment (000)Not in Labour Force (000)Unemployment Rate*CanadaUnemployment Rate*Source: Statistics Canada* rate change onlyJuly 2011 4Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
real estate Indicators(1st quarter year-to-date)BUILDING PERMIT VALUES ( 000s)WinnipegQ1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD% CHANGE YTDTotal Residential & Non-Residential 299,630 237,84326.0Residential 214,957 163,00831.9Non-Residential 84,673 74,83513.1Industrial 13,553 4,619193.4Commercial 40,151 47,885-16.2Institutional & Governmental 30,969 22,33138.7Source: Statistics CanadaHousing Market ActivityCanadaQ1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD 365,170 341,1057.1 238,987 222,9927.2MLS Residential Unit Sales2,5332,3099.7MLS Dollar Volume ( millions) 571 49415.6Single-Family Housing Starts348364-4.4Total Housing Starts490663-26.1MLS Average House Price% Change YTDWinnipegMLS Average Detached Sale PriceSource: Statistics Canada, Winnipeg REALTORS , Canada Mortgage & Housing CorporationOffice SpaceQ1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD 16.85 16.91-0.45.2%6.2%-1.0 13.26 13.220.3Overall Vacancy*10.6%12.2%-1.6Class C Average Net Rent 9.95 9.119.2Overall Vacancy*11.5%8.4%3.1 12.42 11.973.89.1%9.3%-0.2Class A Average (Downtown) Net RentOverall Vacancy*Class B Average Net Rent% Change YTDTotal Office SpaceAverage RentAverage Overall Vacancy*Source: Cushman & Wakefield* rate change onlyJuly 2011 5Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
other Indicators(1st quarter year-to-date)MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS ( MIllions)CanadaManitobaQ1 2011 YTDQ1 2010 YTD 140,389,704 3,759,151 128,609,747 3,448,184% CHANGE YTD9.29.0 96,676,150 3,515,185 94,226,160 3,386,8532.63.8 111,781 2,770 98,575 2,47813.411.8 872 803 840 urce: Statistics CanadaRetail Trade ( millions)CanadaManitobaSource: Statistics CanadaMerchandise Exports ( MIllions)CanadaManitobaSource: Statistics Canada (balance of payments basis) Manitoba Bureau of StatisticsAverage Weekly EarningsCanadaManitobaSource: Statistics CanadaBankruptcies - Winnipeg CMAConsumersBusinessesSource: Industry CanadaConsumer Price IndexCanada – All ItemsWinnipeg – All Items2.62.2Source: Statistics CanadaAirport StatisticsTotal Passenger Volumes843,472865,121-2.5Source: Winnipeg Airports AuthorityFinancial (YTD Average)Prime Rate (%)Exchange Rate (CDN in US )Canada 10-year Benchmark Bond (%)3.00% 1.013.31%2.25% 0.963.45%0.85.2-0.1Source: Bank of CanadaCredit Rating - City of WinnipegStandard & Poor’sMoody’s Investor ServicesAAAa1July 2011 6Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
Winnipeg CMACensus Metropolitan Area (CMA) refers to the municipalities assigned by Statistics Canada on the basis of labour market and commuting criteria,comparable to the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Winnipeg CMA is comprised of the city of Winnipeg plus 10 adjacent municipalities.The city of Winnipeg represents a significant majority of the economic activity and over 90% of the population in the CMA.Winnipeg lies in the heart of Canada and at the geographic centre of North America. Winnipeg has the most diverse economy of major cities inCanada. Winnipeg is an economic hub, a major trade and transportation centre, an arts and culture centre, and a city of creativity and diversity.Key industries include: transportation and distribution, aerospace, agri-business, financial services, life sciences, information and communicationstechnology, tourism, energy and environment, advanced manufacturing and cultural industries.Lake WinnipegSt. Francis XavierSt. ClementRosserHeadingleyW. St.PaulE. St. c Development Winnipeg Inc.Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. is a not-for-profit organization that leads and facilitates investment, partnership, capacity building,tourism and the management of market information. Led by a private sector board with core funding from the City of Winnipeg andProvince of Manitoba, Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. promotes Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit.Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.300-259 Portage AvenueWinnipeg, MB R3B .comwww.economicdevelopmentwinnipeg.comDisclaimer: Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. endeavours to provide accurate information gathered from a variety of sources,but makes no representation or guarantee as to the reliability and accuracy of such information.July 2011 7Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.nPromoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
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