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ST/ESA/SER.A/366Department of Economic and Social AffairsPopulation DivisionWorld Urbanization ProspectsThe 2014 RevisionUnited NationsNew York, 2015

DESAThe Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is avital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheresand national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles,generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data andinformation on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review commonproblems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of MemberStates in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing oremerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways andmeans of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences andsummits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helpsbuild national capacities.NoteThe designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply theexpression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nationsconcerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, orconcerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures.This publication has been issued without formal editing.Suggested citation:United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division(2015). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, (ST/ESA/SER.A/366).Cover photo: Asst. Prof. Chen Siyuan (2014) "Rocinha IV"

PREFACEThe Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations Secretariat isresponsible for providing the international community with up-to-date and scientifically objective information onpopulation and development. The Population Division provides guidance to the United Nations General Assembly,Economic and Social Council, and the Commission on Population and Development on population anddevelopment issues and undertakes regular studies on population levels and trends, population estimates andprojections, population policies, and population and development inter-relationships.The Population Division’s work encompasses the following substantive areas: the study of mortality, fertility,international and internal migration, including their levels and trends as well as their causes and consequences;estimates and projections of the distribution of the population between urban and rural areas and in cities; estimatesand projections of population size, age and sex structure, and demographic indicators for all countries of the world;the documentation and analysis of population and development policies at the national and international levels; andthe study of the relationship between socio-economic development and population change.This report presents the results of the 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects including the officialUnited Nations estimates and projections of urban and rural populations for major areas, regions and countries ofthe world and of all urban agglomerations with 300,000 inhabitants or more in 2014. The data in this Revision areconsistent with the total populations estimated and projected according to the medium variant of the 2012 Revisionof the United Nations global population estimates and projections, published in World Population Prospects: The2012 Revision. This Revision updates and supersedes previous estimates and projections published by the UnitedNations.Other products presenting the results of the 2014 Revision include a Highlights publication1, amethodological report2, two wall charts3 and a CD-ROM4, among others. A description of the CD-ROM andan order form are available at . In preparing the 2014Revision, particular attention was given to the production of detailed documentation on the data sources anddefinitions used at the country level, as well as for cities and urban agglomerations. The full metadatacompiled in this regard are accessible on the Population Division’s website.5 The site also includes usefulfigures and maps illustrating the results obtained.Responsibility for the 2014 Revision rests with the Population Division. In preparing the 2014 Revision, thePopulation Division relied on the collaboration of the Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations Secretariat; its United Nations Demographic Yearbook and its accompanyingdatabases have provided access to official national population statistics used in the preparation of the 2014 Revision.The Population Division also acknowledges the use of information accessible via the website citypopulation.de andthe support of national statistical offices that made available data and reports from recent censuses and surveys. ThePopulation Division is grateful for the contributions made by all these entities.This report was prepared by a team led by François Pelletier, including Kirill Andreev, Lina Bassarsky, PatrickGerland, Danan Gu, Sara Hertog, Vladimira Kantarova, Mun Sim Lai, Nan Li and Hantamalala Rafalimanana, whogenerated estimates and projections and/or drafted chapters. Igor Ribeiro and Chandrasekhar Yamarthy contributedprogramming and data processing, and Neena Koshy provided formatting and editorial support. Barney Cohenprovided key guidance and useful comments and inputs on the draft report.This publication may also be accessed on the website of the Population Division at www.unpopulation.org. Forfurther information about the 2014 Revision, please contact the office of the Director, Population Division, DESA,United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA; tel.: (1 212) 963-3209, fax: (1 212) 963-2147.1World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.14.XIII.8).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Methodology Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.237.Urban and Rural Areas 2014, (ST/ESA/SER.A/360, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.14.XIII.15) and Urban Agglomerations 2014,(ST/ESA/SER.A/359, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.14.XIII.14).4World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision (CD-ROM Edition) ex.htm23United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population DivisionWorld Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revisioniii

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CONTENTSPagePREFACE.iiiEXPLANATORY NOTE .xEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .xxiINTRODUCTION .1ChaptersI.KEY FINDINGS OF THE 2014 REVISION .A. Levels and trends of urbanization .B. The size and growth of the urban and rural populations .C. The size and growth of major urban agglomerations.771216II.URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION GROWTH AND WORLD URBANIZATION PROSPECTS .A. Overview of world urbanization trends .B. Contrasting urbanization trends in the less developed regions and the moredeveloped regions .C. Patterns of urban and rural growth by the income groups .D. Patterns of urban and rural growth in the major areas of the world .2121253336III.URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL .A. The level of urbanization .B. The size and growth of the urban and rural populations .C. The rate of urbanization .45455659IV.PATTERN OF CITY GROWTH .A. Patterns of city growth over time.B. The Urban Hierarchy .C. The number and growth of large cities .D. City primacy .7171789094V.SOURCES OF DATA ON URBAN AND CITY POPULATION .A. Sources of data on the urban population .B. Sources of data for estimates of urban agglomerations and capital cities .101101119REFERENCES .192TABLESNo.1. Distribution of countries according to the criteria used in defining urban areas, 2014 Revision .2. Distribution of countries or areas according to the criteria used in defining city populations,2014 Revision.I.1. The ten most urbanized countries or areas in 2014 and 2050 .I.2. The ten least urbanized countries or areas in 2014 and 2050 .I.3. Ten countries with the largest projected increases in rural population between 2014 and 2050and relative change in rural population .United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population DivisionWorld Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 RevisionPage559915v

9.II.10.III.1.III.2.III.3.III.4.III.5.IV.1.IV. 2.IV.3.IV.4.IV.6.IV.7.PageTen countries with the largest projected declines in rural population between 2014 and 2050and relative change in rural population .Total, urban and rural populations by development group, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Milestones in world total and urban populations .Percentage urban by development group, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Distribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the world by development group,1950, 1975, 2007, 2025 and 2050 .Percentage urban and average annual rate of change of the urban and total population of China,1950-2050 .Percentage urban and rate of urbanization of the world, more developed regions and lessdeveloped regions, 1950-2050 .Percentage urban and rate of urbanization of the world, by income group, selectedyears and period, 1950-2050 .Evolution of the urban, rural and total populations by major area, selected years and periods,1950-2050 .Average annual increment of the urban population and distribution of that incrementby major area, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Percentage urban and rate of urbanization of the world, by major area, selected periods,1950-2050 .Countries or areas with more than 90 per cent of their populations residing in urban areas,in 1950, 1990, 2014 and 2050.The ten least urbanized countries or areas in 2014, in 1950, 1990, 2014and 2050 .The 50 countries with the largest increases in rural population projected to 2050 andthe 50 countries with the largest declines in rural population projected to 2050 .The ten fastest urbanizing countries or areas, 1950-1990, 1990-2014, and 2014-2050,by rank order .Countries or areas with declining percentage urban, 1990-2014 .Population distribution of the world, by area of residence and size class of urban settlement,1970, 1990, 2014 and 2030 .Population distribution and number of urban agglomerations of the world and the developmentgroups, by size class of urban settlement, 1970, 1990, 2014 and 2030 .Population distribution and number of urban agglomerations of the income groups,by size class of urban settlement, 1970, 1990, 2014 and 2030 .Population distribution and number of urban agglomerations of major areas, by size class ofurban settlement, 1970, 1990, 2014 and 2030 .Population size, average annual rates of change, and ranking of the 41 urban agglomerationsthat are expected to be megacities in 2030 .Population of urban agglomerations with the highest degree of primacy, urban population in thecountries and percentage urban in the countries in 2014 ESNo.I.1.I.2.I.3.I.4.I.5.I.6.I.7.I.8.viPageThe world’s urban and rural populations, 1950-2050 .Percentage of the population residing in urban areas, 1950, 2014 and 2050 .Urban and rural population as a proportion of total population, by major area, 1950-2050 .Rate of urbanization by major area, 1950-2050 .Percentage urban by income group, 1950-2050.Urban population by major area, 1950-2050 .Urban population size in 2014 and increase in urban population projected between2014 and 2050 .Rural population by major area, 1950-2050 .78101112121314United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population DivisionWorld Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision