RETAIL SUPERMARKET GLOBALIZATION: WHO S WINNING?

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RETAIL SUPERMARKETGLOBALIZATION:WHO’S WINNING?October 2001CORIOLISRESEARCH

Coriolis Research Ltd. is a strategic market research firm founded in 1997 and based inAuckland, New Zealand. Coriolis primarily works with clients in the food and fast movingconsumer goods supply chain, from primary producers to retailers. In addition to workingwith clients, Coriolis regularly produces reports on current industry topics. Recent reportshave included an analysis of the impact of the arrival of the German supermarket chainAldi in Australia, answering the question: “Will selling groceries over the internet everwork?,” and this analysis of retail supermarket globalization.!The lead researcher on this report was Tim Morris, one of the founding partners of CoriolisResearch. Tim graduated from Cornell University in New York with a degree inAgricultural Economics, with a specialisation in Food Industry Management. Tim hasworked for a number of international retailers and manufacturers, including Nestlé,Dreyer’s Ice Cream, Kraft/General Foods, Safeway and Woolworths New Zealand. Beforehelping to found Coriolis Research, Tim was a consultant for Swander Pace (now part ofKurt Salmon) in San Francisco, where he worked on management consulting andacquisition projects for clients including Danone, Heinz, Bestfoods and ConAgra.!The coriolis force, named for French physicist Gaspard Coriolis (1792-1843), may be seen ona large scale in the movement of winds and ocean currents on the rotating earth. Itdominates weather patterns, producing the counterclockwise flow observed around lowpressure zones in the Northern Hemisphere and the clockwise flow around such zones inthe Southern Hemisphere. It is the result of a centripetal force on a mass moving with avelocity radially outward in a rotating plane. In market research it means understanding the bigpicture before you get into the details.!CORIOLISRESEARCHPO BOX 10 202, Mt. Eden, Auckland, New ZealandTel: 64 9 623 1848; Fax: 64 9 353 1515; email: ch.com

NotesThis report attempts to make sense of the ongoing process of supermarket globalization.This report analyses retail supermarkets. While the definition of a supermarket variessomewhat by country, we take it to mean large stores selling fast moving consumer goods,including significant food. In this analysis, we include within our definition of‘supermarkets’ hypermarkets, limited assortment stores, warehouse club stores and cashand carry outlets. Convenience stores, small grocers, gas stations, and other small retailfood outlets have been eliminated from the analysis wherever possible.The data used in this report comes from numerous sources, including governmentagencies, industry organizations, industry publications, published reports, annual reports,interviews and other sources. In many places this report incorporates estimates andsubjective judgments. Many of the numbers given have significant caveats or footnotes.This report uses local currency data for all countries, except South Africa and Brazil, whichare converted into US dollars at the rate at year end. Summary tables use the followingconversion rates for 2000: US 1 Euro 1 Yen 115 GBP 0.66 Can 1.32 AusA 2 NZ 2.22 BrazilR1.94 RandSAR6.82.No adjustment has been made for differing accounting standards or differing fiscal years.If you have any questions about any of the data used in this report, including where it camefrom, how it was calculated, or what it means, please email info@coriolisresearch.com, andwe will endeavor to answer your query. We also welcome your comments or corrections.

GlobalizationTable of Contents1Overview2I.3Drivers of GlobalizationII. Overview of Globalization by RegionNorth America15Europe26South America38Asia45Southern Africa54Australasia61III. Emerging LeadersAppendix I - International Retailers ScorecardAppendix II - Profiles of Major Supermarket ChainsCORIOLISRESEARCH1269A-IA - IIGlobalization: Who's Winning?1

GlobalizationRetail supermarket globalization will be the defining force in the food industry in thenext decadeI.International expansion allows retailers to grow both their top and bottomlinesII.The ongoing process of retail supermarket globalization is occurring atdifferent speeds in different regionsIII. While leaders are emerging, the process of globalization is still in its infancyCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?2

GlobalizationI. International expansion allows retailers to grow both their top and bottom lines– Retailers in developed countries face low growth, saturated home markets– Developed markets have low population growth, low consumption growthand low income growth compared with developing markets– Retailers with a strong position and strong competitors in their homemarket are going global to achieve growth– Retailers with strong private label programs make higher profits and areinvesting some of these profits in acquiring poorer performing competitors– International growth works to leverage the leaders massive investments inworld-class information systems– Information technology has allowed Wal-Mart to decrease its inventorylevels from 19.1% of sales to 11.3% of sales, freeing up working capital– Retailers are attempting to match Wal-Mart’s scale in purchasing– As an example of scale, Wal-Mart now accounts for 14% of P&G’s totalglobal sales– Other retailers are acquiring and merging in an attempt to match WalMart’s scaleCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?3

GlobalizationDeveloped markets have low population growth, low consumption growth and lowincome growth compared with developing marketsOPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH: THE UK VS. THAILANDUnitedKingdomThailandPopulationPopulation growth rate% of population 65 Daily calories per capitaAnnual caloric consumption growthGDPGDP growth rate (90-98)GDP/capitaGDP/capita at purchasing power parity59.5m0.2%16%3,276-0.01%US 1,264B1.9%US 21,410US 22,80061.2m0.9%6%2,3600.4%US 132B4.6%US 2,160US 6,700Supermarkets % of retail food salesSupermarketsPeople/supermarketSupermarket salesAverage sales/supermarket/week68%5,71910,404US 109.5BUS 368,10523%500122,400US 4.9BUS 187,769CORIOLISRESEARCHSource: CIA; FAS; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?4

GlobalizationRetailers with a strong position and strong competitors in their home market are goingglobal to achieve growthSUPERMARKET SATURATION: FRANCE VS. KOREA(% of retail food sales; 1999)KoreaFranceTraditionalMarkets &Specialists22%Carrefour21%OtherSupermarkets12%E Mart 1.2%Kims 0.8%Hanaro 0.4%Carrefour 0.3%Magnet lercCasino11%TOP 5 66%CORIOLISRESEARCHSmall Grocers,TraditionalMarkets &Specialists83%Source: Nielsen; FAS; Coriolis analysis12%TOP 5 3.0%Globalization: Who's Winning?5

GlobalizationRetailers with strong private label programs make higher profits THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE LABEL ON PROFITABILITY: A SIMPLE MODEL(Two hypothetical 30B supermarket groups)WeakPrivate LabelStrongPrivate Label% B% BSales100% 30.00100% 30.00% of sales - Private label- Branded5%95% 1.50 28.5030%70% 9.00 21.00Gross Margin on - Private label- Branded35%25% 0.525 7.125 7.65035%25% 3.15 5.25 8.40% of sales operating expenses23%( 6.90)23%( 6.90)Operating profit2.5% 0.755.0% 1.50CORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?6

Globalization and are investing some of these profits in acquiring poorer performing competitorsWHY STRONG PRIVATE LABEL LEADS TO CONSOLIDATIONExplanationMore ProfitableGross Margins Private Label 35%Branded 25%Add-value toacquisitions(U.S. examples)Able to consolidate & add value to other chains (PL % of sales)Kroger (25%)buys Fred Meyer (17%)Albertsons (27%) buys American Stores (17%)Safeway (30%)buys Vons (13%)Dominicks (11%)Randalls (13%)Lower PricesAble to offer lower per unit prices on branded & private labelOffer the consumer a lower total basket priceOffer lower prices versus competitionCORIOLISRESEARCH Source: CIES; JP Morgan; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?7

GlobalizationInternational growth works to leverage the leaders massive investments in world-classinformation systemsUSES FOR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYExamplesIncreaseSalesLocalized store assortmentCustomer loyalty marketingReduced LISRESEARCHCooperative forecasting and replenishmentCross-dockingPay-on-scanContinuous replenishmentPredictive labor schedulingComputer aided orderingSelf-scanning checkoutsVendor system integrationElectronic data interchangeElectronic payment and dispute resolutionElectronic item file updatesGlobalization: Who's Winning?8

GlobalizationInformation technology has allowed Wal-Mart to decrease its inventory levels from19.1% of sales to 11.3% of sales, freeing up working capitalWAL-MART: INVENTORY AS A PERCENT OF SALES(Inventories at replacement cost/net sales; FY1985-2001)19.1%18.4%18.1% 18.3% 17.9%17.6%19.0%17.9% 17.6%17.1%17.5% 17.4%15.4%7.8%14.3%12.8%12.2%11.3%“People think we got big by putting bigstores in small towns. Really we got bigby replacing inventory with information.”- Sam 19921993 19941995199619971998199920002001Globalization: Who's Winning?9

GlobalizationAs an example of scale, Wal-Mart now accounts for 14% of P&G’s total global salesANNUAL SALES: P&G VS. WAL-MART(US B; 1983-2000) 20027% CAGR 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 407% CAGR 20 01983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000CORIOLISRESEARCHSource: Wal-Mart annual reports; P&G annual reports; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?10

GlobalizationOther retailers are acquiring and merging in an attempt to match Wal-Mart’s scaleTOP TEN GLOBAL SUPERMARKET RETAILERS(US B/Euro B; FY2000) 191 65 52Wal-MartCarrefourCORIOLISRESEARCHAhold 49KrogerSource: Various annual reports; Coriolis analysis 47Metro 37 36 33 32 32AlbertsonsAldiReweCostcoSafewayGlobalization: Who's Winning?11

GlobalizationII. The ongoing process of retail supermarket globalization is occurring at differentspeeds in different regions– This analysis looks at the main regions where retail globalization is occurring,however these regions differ in their level of supermarket retailing development– In many ways, North America, the region that invented the supermarket, hasdone the least to spread it worldwide– European retailers have been very successful globalizers, usually starting withthe country next door– South America has a fast developing supermarket sector that is quickly beingconsolidated by European chains– Much of the world’s growth in population, wealth and supermarket in the nextfifty years will occur in Asia– While South Africa offers a relatively stable gateway to the African continent, ithas proved much less attractive than Asia or South America to global retailers– Australasia has produced some strong local chains but has not been a part ofretail globalizationCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?12

GlobalizationThis analysis looks at the main regions where retail globalization is occurring SOUTHERNAFRICAAUSTRALASIAGlobalization: Who's Winning?13

Globalization however these regions differ in their level of supermarket retailing developmentREGIONAL SUPERMARKET RETAILING 0%65%30%20%Supermarket Sales:US 450BEuro 700BUS 25.5BUS 85BUS 240BUS 11B# of Supermarkets34,000108,6453,30010,00040,0003,200US 255,000E 124,000Population% of retail food salesthrough supermarkets1Average SupermarketSales/Store/WeekCORIOLISRESEARCHUS 149,000 US 163,000 US 115,000US 66,0001. Includes convenience stores, department stores, grocers, small shops and other retail food outlets; does not includeGlobalization: Who's Winning?foodservice and significant wet markets, home production or other; 2. China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand14

GlobalizationIn many ways, North America, the region that invented the supermarket, has done theleast to spread it : Who's Winning?15

GlobalizationThe North American market, encompassing the NAFTA countries, has a total populationof 407 million people and supermarket sales of 450 billionNORTH AMERICAN MARKET OVERVIEWKey StatisticsPopulation:407 million% retail food sales through supermarkets: 85%Supermarket sales:US 450B# of supermarkets:34,000Average supermarket sales:CORIOLISRESEARCHUS 255,000/wk.Globalization: Who's Winning?16

GlobalizationNorth American retailers are focused on national and regional consolidationNORTH AMERICAN MARKET KEY POINTS Brands, products and tastes are North American (excl. Mexico) Regional consolidation is currently underway– Kroger buying Fred Meyer– Albertsons buying American Stores– Safeway buying Dominicks, Randalls and Genuardi’s– Loblaws buying Provigo Europeans have made strong gains on the East Coast– Ahold buying Bi-Lo, Giant, Stop&Shop, Tops, others– Delhaize buying Food Lion and Hannaford– Sainsbury buying Shaws American chains have been poor internationalizers– Safeway sold off its empire in the 1980’s– Wal-Mart and Costco are trying to internationalize todayCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?17

GlobalizationOther than Wal-Mart, Ahold, Costco and Delhaize, the major North Americansupermarket chains are national or regional in focusTOP TEN NORTH AMERICAN SUPERMARKET RIOLISRESEARCHCountries upermarkets1 store per weekSharein region(#; 2000)(US 000; 2000) Region Total(US B; 2000) (% of sales)10 88431,2453 57.2212.7%1 40012,35410.9% 49.01 41511,7058.2% 36.83 36531,6887.1% 32.07 1,80633296.9% 30.924 41819714.7% 21.11 43416473.2% 14.61 24411,0793.0% 13.71 24911,0503.0% 13.610 17211,4202.8% 12.7 15121,51237.4% 168.4 25534,000100.0% 450.01. In North America; 2. Estimated North American ‘supermarket-equivalent’ sales; 3. Includes Supercentres and Sam’s Club;does not include discount stores; Source: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FMI; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?18

GlobalizationEven after the recent wave of consolidation, the top five supermarket groups in NorthAmerica only control 45.8% of salesNORTH AMERICAN SUPERMARKET GROUP MARKET 8.2%Top 545.8%Safeway7.1%Delhaize 2.8%Loblaw 3.0%Winn-Dixie . North America: United States, Canada and MexicoGlobalization: Who's Winning?19

GlobalizationOnly Wal-Mart and Safeway are in the top six supermarket chains in more than onecountry - there is much more North American consolidation to comeTOP SIX SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRY(ranked by sales; ChedrauiSafeway2CORIOLISRESEARCH1. Wal-Mart is the number one retailer in Canada, but not in supermarkets; 2. Safeway owns 49% of Casa Ley; 3. Costco is inMexico through an 18 store joint-venture with Comercial; Source: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?20

GlobalizationCanada and Mexico are the next markets to be yTengelmannWal-MartCORIOLISRESEARCH1. One of the founders of Aldi also owns 7% of AlbertsonsSource: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; EFI; Coriolis analysisUSAMexicoCanadaKoreaMAJOR INTERNATIONAL SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRYPPPresentFailedPPlannedGlobalization: Who's Winning?21

GlobalizationThe next moves in North America revolve around infill acquisitions in America andcross-border acquisitions into Canada and MexicoNEXT MOVES IN NORTH AMERICA More consolidation of smaller U.S. regional supermarketsFill-in acquisitions for the big three (Safeway, Kroger & Albertsons)All need to become stronger on the U.S. East CoastAholdPublixA&PWinn-DixieDelhaize Regional cross-border integrationAlbertsons and Kroger into Canada and MexicoCanada: Loblaw and EmpireMexico: Comercial and GiganteAldi into Canada Linkage of a major US with a major EuropeanKroger, Albertsons and Safeway need to line up globallyCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?22

GlobalizationAll of the major chains, except Wal-Mart, have significant gaps in their North Americanstore networkMAJOR RETAILERS STORE OCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?23

GlobalizationThe smaller regional retailers would appear to be prime acquisition targetsMAJOR RETAILERS STORE OBLAWA&PEMPIRE/SOBEYSGlobalization: Who's Winning?24

GlobalizationHowever, the next moves are complicated by the ownership structures of many of thesmaller chainsOWNERSHIP STRUCTURE OF SELECT SUPERMARKET GROUPSCompanyTotalGlobal Sales(US B; 2000)LocationIssueOwned by Jenkins family andemployeesDavis family owns 42% ofcompanyGeorge Weston Ltd owns 63%;GWL owned 60% by Weston familyOwned by Delhaize of BelgiumPublix 14.6Winn-Dixie 13.7Florida,U.S. SouthU.S. SouthLoblaw 13.6CanadaDelhaize 12.7A&P 10.6Meijer 10.0U.S. EastU.S. SouthU.S. NortheastEastern CanadaU.S. CentralH.E.B. 8.2EmpireSobeys 7.5CORIOLISRESEARCHTexas(Mexico)CanadaSource: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; SB; SN; Coriolis analysisTengelmann/Haub family owns55% of stockOwned by Meijer familyOwned by Butt familyControlled by Sobey familyGlobalization: Who's Winning?25

GlobalizationEuropean retailers have been very successful globalizers, usually starting with thecountry next doorEUROPECORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?26

GlobalizationThe European market is made up of 519 million people, spread over thirty five countries,spending Euro 700 billion in supermarketsEUROPEAN MARKET OVERVIEWKey StatisticsPopulation:519 million% retail food sales through supermarkets: 80%Supermarket sales:Euro 700B# of supermarkets:108,645Average supermarket sales:CORIOLISRESEARCHEuro 124,000/wk.Globalization: Who's Winning?27

GlobalizationDespite the European Union, the European supermarket industry is still fragmented andregional – truly pan-European chains have yet to emergeEUROPEAN MARKET KEY POINTS Brands, products and tastes are still primarily national Europeans have been good internationalizers– Expanded internationally early on to maintain sales growth– Many groups have had success with organic regional growth– Have developed multicultural systems and cultures Regional consolidation is currently underway– Carrefour buying Promodes and GB– Ahold buys Superdiplo and 50% of ICA– Rewe buys Standa Wal-Mart has arrived with much fanfare but mixed success– ASDA in the UK appears to be going well– Wertkauf and Interspar in Germany having difficultiesCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?28

GlobalizationOf the major European chains, only Carrefour, Metro, Aldi and Rewe can truly beconsidered pan-EuropeanTOP TEN EUROPEAN SUPERMARKET termarcheTescoLeclercAuchanJ tries ofSales perMarketNumber ofSalesOperationShareSupermarkets2 store per weekin region(Euro B; 2000) Region Total(Euro B; 2000) (% of sales)(#; 2000)24 2475,42311 69.639.9%10 5312,071104.7% 33.222 5481,127184.6% 32.111 1444,27194.6% 32.06 5411,18364.5% 31.26 1473,99164.4% 30.69 66487564.3% 30.26 83255063.4% 23.813 57176473.2% 22.73 84545312.8% 19.9 10667,93753.5% 374.7 124108,645100.0% 700.01. Ahold, while pan-European, only has European retail sales of 16.6 billion; 2. In Europe; 3. Includes tax (in source)Source: Various Annual Reports; M M; Euromonitor; Hoovers; CIES; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?29

GlobalizationEven after the recent wave of consolidation, the top five supermarket groups in Europeonly control 28.3% of salesEUROPEAN SUPERMARKET GROUP MARKET SHARECarrefour9.9%Rewe4.7%Metro4.6%Aldi4.6%Top .3%LeclercAuchan 3.4%J Sainsbury 3.2%2.8%CORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?30

GlobalizationOnly Carrefour, Auchan and Aldi are in the top five supermarket chains in more thanone of the six largest markets - there is much more European consolidation to comeTOP FIVE SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRY(ranked by sales; sburyWal-Mart/ASDASafeway (UK)SomerfieldITALYNETHERLANDSSPAINCoop edia hanEl Corte InglesMercadonaCORIOLISRESEARCHSource: M M; Euromonitor; Hoovers; FAS; EFI; CIES; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?31

GlobalizationWestern Europe is still a patchwork of countries and store fascias - no group offers trulyregional nnedFrancePDenmarkFailedAustriaPresentBel/LuxMAJOR INTERNATIONAL SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRYPPPPSource: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; EFI; Euromonitor; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?32

GlobalizationEastern Europe, with its rapidly modernizing retail sector, is the emerging battlegroundfor globalizers - thirteen chains will be battling for Poland ailedCroatiaPresentBulgariaMAJOR INTERNATIONAL SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRYPPPPPPPSource: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; EFI; Coriolis analysisPPGlobalization: Who's Winning?33

GlobalizationThe next moves in Europe will revolve around achieving leadership in the the threemain markets (the UK, Germany and France)NEXT MOVES IN EUROPE More cross-border consolidation among the three largest marketsGermany (Rewe, Edeka, Metro)France (Carrefour, Intermarche, Auchan)United Kingdom (Tesco, Sainsbury, Wal-Mart) Key globalizers need to consolidate their European positionAhold needs to be in the UK, France and GermanyCarrefour needs to be in Germany and the UK (where it failed in the past) Consolidation within countries in Eastern Europe13 companies competing in Poland is too many9 companies competing in the Czech Republic is too many Wal-Mart need to make some additional big acquisitions to get scaleWal-Mart has not demonstrated an ability to grow organically in EuropeWal-Mart’s operational system works best at large volumesMetro/Real, Casino, and Auchan are all possible acquisitionsCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?34

GlobalizationEurope is still a much more fragmented market than North America, with no groupoffering total coverageMAJOR RETAILERS STORE RCHEALDITESCOGlobalization: Who's Winning?35

GlobalizationThe next steps in European integration are unclear, but would appear to involveachieving leadership in in all major markets: Germany, France, Italy and the UKMAJOR RETAILERS STORE CASINOCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?36

GlobalizationHowever, the next moves are complicated by the different ownership structures of manyof the main European chainsOWNERSHIP STRUCTURE OF SELECT SUPERMARKET GROUPSCompanyTotalGlobal Sales(Euro B; 00)Rewe 33.2Metro 32.1Edeka/AVA 31.2Tengelmann 30.8Intermarche 30.6Leclerc 23.8Auchan 22.7Casino 19.1CORIOLISRESEARCHCountriesGermany9 othersGermany21 othersGermany5 othersGermany8 othersFrance5 otherFrance5 othersFrance12 othersFrance10 othersSource: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; EFI; Coriolis analysisIssueCooperative of 3,600 store ownersHaniel family, Otto Beisheim, andthe Schmidt brothers own 60%Cooperative of 6,000 store ownersOwned by Haub familyCooperative of store ownersCooperative of store ownersMulliez family owns 84% of stockEmployees own remaining sharesRallye Group owns 52% of stockGlobalization: Who's Winning?37

GlobalizationSouth America has a fast developing supermarket sector that is quickly beingconsolidated by European chainsSOUTHAMERICACORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?38

GlobalizationSouth American has 520 million people and 10,000 supermarketsSOUTH AMERICAN MARKET OVERVIEWKey StatisticsPopulation:520 million% retail food sales through supermarkets: 65%Supermarket sales:US 85B# of supermarkets:10,000Average supermarket sales:CORIOLISRESEARCHUS 163,000/wk.Globalization: Who's Winning?39

GlobalizationEuropean chains Carrefour, Ahold, Makro and Casino dominate the South Americansupermarket sceneTOP TEN SOUTH AMERICAN SUPERMARKET OLISRESEARCHSupermarketCountries ofMarketNumber ofSales perSalesOperationShareSupermarkets1 store per weekin region(#; 2000)(US B; 2000) (% of sales)(US 000; 2000) Region Total 10.8 5.1 3.5 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 55.1 100.0%55956734960173846069271297,92310,000 372 173 193 641 211 343 449 362 783 149 134 16348141121252424110212110111. In South America; 2. Among other investments, Casino and Ahold each own 50% of Disco; 3. Casino owns 25% ofGlobalization: Who's Winning?CBD/Pao de Acucar (not included in Casino sales); Source: Various Annual Reports; Euromonitor; Hoovers; CIES; FAS; Coriolis analysis40

GlobalizationMost South American supermarkets are still small chains or independents - the top fivechains only control 27.4% of the marketSOUTH AMERICAN SUPERMARKET GROUP MARKET SHARECarrefour12.7%AholdTop 527.4%6.0%CBD/Casino4.1%Makro2.4%Sonae 2.2%Other65.2%CORIOLISRESEARCHCasa Sendas 1.8%Coto 1.6%D&S 1.5%Wal-Mart 1.3%Casino/Other 1.2%Globalization: Who's Winning?41

GlobalizationEuropean retailers have been very successful in South America: Carrefour, Casino, andAhold are in the top five supermarket chains in more than one country; Wal-Mart is adistant sixth in twoTOP FIVE/SIX SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRY(ranked by sales; 2000)BRAZILARGENTINACHILECarrefourCasino/Pao de umboLa caLa 14CafamMakro2WongAhold1. Not to be confused with Pao de Acucar Portugal owned by Auchan; 2. 58% owned by SHV Makro of HollandSource: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; Euromonitor; Coriolis analysisGlobalization: Who's Winning?42

GlobalizationThe two largest economies, Argentina and Brazil, have been the key South ce: Various Annual Reports; Hoovers; FAS; EFI; Coriolis analysisVenezuelaUruguayPeruParaguayEcuadorEl SalvadorColombiaChileBrazilArgentinaMAJOR INTERNATIONAL SUPERMARKET GROUPS BY COUNTRYPresentFailedPPlannedGlobalization: Who's Winning?43

GlobalizationNext moves in South America involve strong organic growth and Wal-Mart attemptingto catch up with CarrefourSOUTH AMERICAN NEXT MOVES Metro enters market by buying remaining piece of Makro (Asia &South America) Market rapidly consolidating to Carrefour, Ahold and Wal-Mart;unclear future for Casino Acquisitions by Wal-Mart to catch-up with CarrefourChile: D&S, Jumbo or UnimarcBrazil: CBD/PDA, Sonae, or SendasArgentina: CotoColombia: Cadenalco, Olimpica or La 14 Organic expansion in all markets to meet growing demandCarrefour expanding with HypermarketsWal-Mart rolling our supercentersAhold building supermarketsMakro expanding with Cash&CarryCORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?44

GlobalizationMuch of the world’s growth in population, wealth and supermarket in the next fiftyyears will occur in AsiaASIACORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?45

GlobalizationAsia has over 2 billion people, with 20% more supermarkets than North America butwith only half the supermarket sales dollarsASIAN MARKET OVERVIEWKey StatisticsPopulation:2,020 million% retail food sales through supermarkets: 30%Supermarket sales:US 240B# of supermarkets:40,000Average supermarket sales:CORIOLISRESEARCHUS 115,000/wk.Globalization: Who's Winning?46

GlobalizationMost people in Asia still live off the land or shop at the wet market, rather than at asupermarketASIAN MARKET KEY POINTS Brands, products and tastes are still national Most food sales occur outside supermarkets– Most people still live off the land (excl. Japan, Taiwan and Korea)– Traditional wet markets are very strong– Small grocers and convenience stores are often protected Distribution channels are still highly fragmented– Large number of middlemen and distributors– Even in Japan, the top 5 supermarket chains account for less than 26%of retail food sales Asian (especially Japanese) chains have been poor internationalizers International chains are opening stores but not all are making money– Carrefour 5.9% (EBITDA percent of sales)– Ahold“Next Year”– Tesco“Next Year”– Wal-Mart “A long-term investment”CORIOLISRESEARCHGlobalization: Who's Winning?47

GlobalizationThirty percent of Asia’s retail food sales currently occur in supermarkets, most of whichoccurs in JapanASIAN SUPERMARKET INDUSTRY OVERVIEW% retail food through supermarketsSupermarket 24030%Share of total supermarket by countryOther2 29.312%Taiwan 6.5 / 3%Korea 7.3 / 3%OtherRetail Food1 56070%Japan 196.982%TOTAL US 800BCORIOLISRESEARCHTOTAL U

- Private label - Branded Gross Margin on– - Private label - Branded % of sales operating expenses Operating profit 100% 30% 70% 35% 25% 23% 5.0% Strong Private Label THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE LABEL ON PROFITABILITY: A SIMPLE MODEL (Two hypothetical 30B supermarket groups) Weak Private Label

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