Florida Prison Recidivism Report: Releases From 2010 To 2016
Florida Prison Recidivism Report:Releases from 2010 to 2016August 2018Florida Department of CorrectionsJulie L. Jones, SecretaryOffice of Strategic Initiatives
TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive Summary . 2Introduction . 4Recidivism Study Methodology . 5Recidivism Rates Over Time . 8Recidivism Rates by Gender . 9Recidivism Rates by Primary Offenses. 10Recidivism Rates by Age at Release . 11Recidivism Rates - Model Factor Tables. 12Factors in Order of Predictability by Gender . 17Re-Arrest Rates . 19Appendix A: The Truth about Recidivism . 21Appendix B: Recidivism Rates Tables. 22Page 1 of 25
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDefining RecidivismThe Florida Department of Corrections defines recidivism as a return to prison, as the result ofeither a new conviction or a violation of post-prison supervision, within three years of their prison releasedate. The follow-up periods are calculated from prison release date to the date of readmission to prison.Changing Recidivism RatesThe three-year recidivism rate has decreased from 30.5% in 2007 to 24.5% in 2014. However, therecidivism rates have fluctuated over the past five years. These rates are shown below: Inmates released in 2010 who returned to prison within three years 25.7% recidivism rate Inmates released in 2011 who returned to prison within three years 26.2% recidivism rate Inmates released in 2012 who returned to prison within three years 25.2% recidivism rate Inmates released in 2013 who returned to prison within three years 25.4% recidivism rate Inmates released in 2014 who returned to prison within three years 24.5% recidivism ratePage 2 of 25
Major FactorsFor 2014 releases, some factors found to influence an inmate's likelihood of recidivism include(both male and female): Number of prior prison commitmentso more priors higher likelihood of recidivating Whether the inmate has a supervision term after releaseo supervised higher likelihood of recidivating The inmate’s tested education levelo higher grade level lower likelihood of recidivating The inmate’s behavior while in prisono The inmate’s age at releaseo more counts higher likelihood of recidivatingThe inmate’s burglary offense counts prior to releaseo younger higher likelihood of recidivatingThe inmate’s theft offense counts prior to releaseo more disciplinary reports higher likelihood of recidivatingmore counts higher likelihood of recidivatingThe inmate’s other non-violent offense counts within 5 years prior to admissionmore counts higher likelihood of recidivating Gang membershipogang suspected or confirmed higher likelihood of recidivatingPage 3 of 25
INTRODUCTIONThe Florida Prison Recidivism Report is produced annually by the Office of Strategic InitiativesBureau of Research and Data Analysis within the Florida Department of Corrections. The present studyexamines the recidivism rate of Florida's released inmate population. While the use of recidivism as aperformance indicator of the state's rehabilitative efforts can be debated, the analysis itself is of significantpublic importance. Given that 86% of inmates housed in Florida prisons today will one day be releasedback into our communities, those responsible for the state’s planning and budgeting need to know thelikelihood that an inmate who is released today will one day return to Florida’s prison system. Moreimportantly, for the public and those charged with ensuring public safety, the state’s recidivism rate is animportant measure of criminal activity produced by released prisoners.When discussing recidivism rates, the factors that influence recidivism must be considered. Forexample, recidivism rates vary across age groups, racial/ethnic groups, and gender. To better determinewhere to devote correctional and community resources, it is imperative to identify the factors thatinfluence both success and failure of released inmates. These factors inform the agency so it canunderstand and address the unique challenges inmates face upon returning to the community.This study finds that the factors that influence Florida’s recidivism rate are generally consistentwith existing research. A 2011 report from the Pew Center on the States shows the overall recidivism rate(return to prison for any reason within three years of release) for releases in 2004 from the states thatparticipated was 43.3%. 1 A 2014 report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of 23 states reports an overallthree-year recidivism rate of nearly 50% for 2005 releases. 2It must be noted that, unlike many states, Florida paroles very few inmates. There are two types ofpost-prison supervision. An offender can either be supervised by the Department resulting from a splitsentence or have post prison release supervision where eligible inmates have the terms and conditions ofparole set by the Florida Commission on Offender Review (FCOR). In 2014 about 36% of inmates werereleased to supervision terms. 3 Historically, inmates who are supervised following release recidivate at ahigher rate than those without post-release supervision. Since fewer of Florida's released inmates aresupervised post-release, Florida’s recidivism rate is much lower than other states.Pew Center on the States, State of Recidivism: The Revolving Door of America’s Prisons(Washington, DC: The Pew Charitable Trusts, April 2011)Pew Center on States, State of Recidivism: The Revolving Door of America's Prisons12United States. U.S. Department of Justice. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010. By Matthew R.Durose, Alexia D. Cooper, Ph.D., and Howard N. Snyder, Ph.D. Washington D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2014. Web. 24Apr. 2014. Bureau of Justice Statistics, ts/im release.htmlPage 4 of 25
METHODOLOGYIn this study recidivism is defined as a return to prison, as the result of either a new conviction or aviolation of post-prison supervision, within three years of their prison release date. For this study, survivalanalysis techniques are used to compute recidivism rates and to define the statistical models that determinewhich factors significantly influence recidivism rates. The basic rates for tables and graphs are computedfrom Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival curve using right-censored data. The analyses of factorsignificance are conducted using Cox models (proportional hazards regression) of the same data. Theanalysis used a 5% level of significance to determine which factors to include, and a stepwise selectionroutine for determining the order of importance. The correlations between factors were considered duringthe stepwise routine to eliminate highly correlated variables from both being selected for inclusion in themodel. The resulting models built on the Florida prison releases from January 1, 2014 to December 31,2014 have area under the curve (AUC) statistics of 0.72 for males and 0.75 for females.All inmates released from Florida prisons from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014 are included inthe study, with the following exceptions: Inmates who died or were executed have been omitted from the calculation of recidivism rates. Inmates who are missing information on the factors of interest are omitted from the analysis offactor influences. Inmates with more than one release in a calendar year have only the first release included. Inmates with detainers in place at the time of release are omitted.The following variables were considered for inclusion in the model:-Inmate Background Information Gender is male – Yes/No Number of prior prison commitments Age at release Age at first offense Ethnicity is Hispanic – Yes/No Confirmed or suspected gang member – Yes/No-Inmate Incarceration Information Time served in prison (current incarceration in months) Custody level – Low or High (Low is Community and Minimum Custody; High is CloseCustody; Medium Custody is the reference category) Number of disciplinary reports during current incarceration Substance abuse severity score Diagnosed mental illness – Yes/NoPage 5 of 25
Supervision to follow – Yes/NoNumber of visits inmate had or received in the 12 months prior to releaseBus ticket furnished by the Department of Corrections for release transportation –Yes/NoInmate has been assigned to close management within three years before released –Yes/NoInmate is homeless at release – Yes/NoInmate medical grade at releaseInmate is employed at release – Yes/NoTotal counts of grievances inmate filed while in prison- Inmate Education Information Has inmate obtained a GED/HS certificate – Yes/No Has inmate received a vocational certificate – Yes/No Most recent Tests of Adult Basic Education (TABE) score (education level in gradeequivalents) prior to release Inmate educational level claimed- Inmate Criminal History Most serious violent offense in criminal history (Categories for murder/manslaughter,sex offense, robbery, other violent offense (e.g. assault or kidnapping) – Yes/No) Most serious violent offense within 15 years prior to admission (Categories formurder/manslaughter, sex offense, robbery, and other violent offense – Yes/No) Offense counts in criminal history (Categories for murder/manslaughter, sex offense,robbery, other violent offense, burglary, theft, drugs, weapons, and other non-violentoffense). Non-violent offense counts within 5 years prior to admission (Categories for burglary,theft, drugs, weapons, and other non-violent offense)- Social Cognitive FactorsThese factors are measured by the following domain scores (scale: 1-5) Education & Employment Score – This domain considers the social achievement of asignificant academic milestone and employment history Criminal Thinking Score - This domain considers how a person’s behavior reflects his/herthinking, and whether their mental orientation is prosocial or supports their criminalbehavior Wellness Score - This domain includes a wide range of skills, such as healthy habits, properhygiene, good nutrition and appropriate leisure time activities Family/Marital Score – This domain considers impact of marital or equivalent relationshipson the pro-criminal influences and antisocial attitudes Substance Abuse Score – This domain considers the inmate history of alcohol and drug use Criminal Associates Score - This domain considers inmate attachments to criminal associates Anti-Social Personality Score – This domain considers the antisocial behavior marked byimpulsiveness, aggression, and stimulation seekingPage 6 of 25
For the criminal history factors, only those offenses for which the inmate received either a Floridaprison sentence or Florida community supervision sentence are considered. Crimes in Florida that resultedin other sanctions, such as fines, county jail, or federal sentences, are not included. Arrests, supervision, orprison sentences outside of Florida are also not included, unless they are a part of the inmate's Floridasentence. For information on re-arrest rates, please refer to page 19 of this report.In addition, for the “most serious violent offense” factor, an inmate can only be designated to one ofthe offense categories listed below. For example, if an inmate has committed both a sex offense and arobbery, he/she will be counted in the sex offense category, NOT in the robbery category, according tothe offense severity hierarchy. The offense severity hierarchy for the most serious violent offense factor isas follows:1. Murder2. Sex Offense3. Robbery4. Other Violent Offense (e.g. assault, kidnapping, etc.)Page 7 of 25
RECIDIVISM RATES OVER TIME*As of the 2018 report, 3-year recidivism rates cannot yet be computed for 2015 and 2016 releases, so only one- and two-yearrates are provided in the chart.Recidivism rates are certainly affected by factors outside the influence of the Department ofCorrections, such as unemployment, crime rates, and local criminal justice issues, including jail bedavailability and gang activity. Statewide initiatives such as truth-in-sentencing, increased use of mandatoryprison terms, and availability of inmate rehabilitative programs may also influence recidivism rates. Forthese reasons, recidivism rates cannot be used as the only measure of operational performance for theFlorida prison system. Recidivism is a measure of a multitude of societal issues working for and against thereleased inmate, before he ever receives a prison sentence and long after he is released.Page 8 of 25
RECIDIVISM RATES BY GENDERFOR INMATES RELEASED in 2014Female inmates’ recidivism rates are much lower than male inmates’ rates. At three years, the malerecidivism rate is 26.0% while the female rate is only 13.3%. Other factors could account for the observeddifference. While the average time served for males is 43 months, the average time served for females isonly 27 months. Approximately 32% of female releases have supervision to follow compared to 36% ofmales. These are only a few of the factors that may explain some of the differences in recidivism rates formales and females.Page 9 of 25
RECIDIVISM RATES BY PRIMARY OFFENSEFOR INMATES RELEASED in 2014The graph above shows that inmates serving a prison sentence for drug offenses have the lowestrecidivism rates at 18%, followed by inmates with murder/manslaughter offenses. Inmates with burglaryoffenses have the highest recidivism rates at 30%. Inmates serving time for violent other (e.g. aggravatedassault, battery, kidnapping, arson), sexual/lewd behavior, robbery, other non-violent offenses (e.g. DUI,driving with suspended or revoked license, failure to register) have higher recidivism rates than the overallrecidivism rate for 2014 releases.Page 10 of 25
RECIDIVISM RATES BY AGE AT RELEASEFOR INMATES RELEASED in 2014An inmate’s likelihood to recidivate decreases with age at release. Note that there is little differencein the recidivism rates between the age group of 25-34 and 35-49.Page 11 of 25
RECIDIVISM RATES – MODEL FACTOR TABLESFOR INMATES RELEASED in 2014The hazard ratio is a descriptive measure used to compare the survival times of two differentgroups of offenders. Hazard ratios in the tables below are interpreted as the multiple of the likelihood offailure. For example, in Table 1 male inmates who are gang members have a hazard ratio of 1.643. Thisratio means that a male inmate who is a gang member is (1.643-1 0.643) 64.3% more likely to recidivatethan a male inmate who is not a gang member with all other factors held constant (meaning they areidentical on all factors in the model except for gang membership).On the other hand, if the hazard ratio is less than one, the interpretation is a percent reduction inlikelihood to fail. For example, in Table 1 a male Hispanic inmate is (1-0.76 .24) 24% less likely torecidivate than a non-Hispanic male inmate with all other factors held constant.For those measures that are expressed as numeric counts instead of dichotomous (Yes/No), thehazard ratios show the increase or decrease per unit increase in the factor. For example, in Table 2 foreach additional disciplinary report a male inmate receives while incarcerated, his likelihood of recidivatingincreases by (1.014-1 .014) 14%. For each additional grade level tested, his likelihood of recidivatingdecreases by (1-0.969 0.031) 3.1%.Page 12 of 25
Table 1. Hazard Ratios for Categorical Factors Selected by Model (Male)FactorsSupervision to FollowOverallReleases2014(AvailableData %24%Low (Community 25%Yes6192%20%0.656**Yes4, aluesYesNoYesGang MembershipCustody at ReleaseEthnicityHomeless Residence Status atReleaseMurder Offense within 15Years of AdmissionWorst Offense Served isRobberyWorst Offense Served isOther ViolentBus Ticket Furnished forRelease TransportationEmployed at ReleaseNo1.643**1.404**0.839****: p-value 0.01; *: 0.01 p-value 0.05; NS: Not Significant at α 0.05Page 13 of 25
Table 2. Hazard Ratios for Continuous Factors Selected by Model (Male)MedianMeanHazardRatioNumber of Prior Prison Commitments (010)0.00.91.267**Age at ReleaseAge at Release (16-87)34360.971**Institutional BehaviorNumber of Disciplinary Reports During theCurrent Incarceration (0-192)1.02.71.014**Most Recent Tests of Adult Basic Education(TABE) Score (Grade Equivalents of 1-12.9),before Release7.2†0.969**03.30.991**Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score(0-14)3.04.71.019**Number of Theft Offenses Served beforeRelease (0-208)1.01.91.015**Number of Burglary Offenses Served beforeRelease (0-71)0.01.11.031**Number of Other Non-Violent Offenseswithin 5 Years of Admission (0-18)0.00.31.056**FactorsValueCriminal HistoryEducation LevelNumber of Visits InmateReceived 12 Months beforeReleaseSubstance Abuse SeverityScoreOffense HistoryNumber of Visits (0-109)**: p-value 0.01; *: 0.01 p-value 0.05; NS: Not Significant at α 0.05; †: An average cannot be calculated for gradeequivalent TABE scores since these are not interval scale.Page 14 of 25
Table 3. Hazard Ratios for Categorical Factors Selected by Model (Female)OverallReleases2014FactorsSupervision to FollowGang MembershipValuesYesNoYesNo(Available DataOnly)Percent ofReleaseCohortRecidivismRateHazard %13%2.312***: p-value 0.01; *: 0.01 p-value 0.05; NS: Not Significant at α 0.05; ***: Sample size is too small.Table 4. Hazard Ratios for Continuous Factors Selected by Model (Female)MedianMeanHazardRatioNumber of Prior Prison Commitments(0-6)0.00.41.55**Age at ReleaseAge at Release (17-87)34360.961**Criminal AssociatesCA Score (1-5)2.02.21.201**Institutional BehaviorNumber of Disciplinary Reports Duringthe Current Incarceration (0-110)01.21.022**Number of Theft Offenses (0-133)12.81.016**Number of Other Non-Violent Offenseswithin 5 Years of Admission (0-8)00.31.365**Number of Burglary Offenses (0-12)00.41.091**Most Recent Tests of Adult BasicEducation (TABE) Score (GradeEquivalents of 1-12.9) before Release8.56†0.94**FactorsValueCriminal HistoryOffense HistoryEducation Level**: p-value 0.01; *: 0.01 p-value 0.05; NS: Not Significant at α 0.05; †: An average cannot be calculated for gradeequivalent TABE scores since these are not interval scale.Page 15 of 25
Table 5. Factors Not Included in the 61716%33%Program Supervision (Addiction Recovery)1,
Bureau of Research and Data Analysis within the Florida Department of Corrections. The present study examines the recidivism rate of Florida's released inmate population. While the use of recidivism as a performance indicator of the state's rehabilitative efforts can be debated, the analysis itself is of significant public importance.
rates for 1999 and 2004 prison releases. The report shows that, in addition to the states highlighted in this brief, many other states have also achieved recidivism reductions. September 2012 Percentage change in recidivism rate* for 2005 and 2007 releases number fewer returned to Prison for the 2007 release grouP ** Kansas -15% 289 Michigan .
Change in Three- Year Recidivism Rates Percentage Change in Three- Year Recidivism Rates Number of inmates Released in 2010 Number Fewer Returned to Prison for the 2010 Release Group The declines in recidivism rates highlighted in this report have occurred while these states have each experienced declines in incarceration rates and crime rates.
The prison population stood at 78,180 on 31 December 2020. The sentenced prison population stood at 65,171 (83% of the prison population); the remand prison population stood at 12,066 (15%) and the non-criminal prison population stood at 943 (1%). Figure 1: Prison population, December 2000 to 2020 (Source: Table 1.1) Remand prison population
re-arrest data on its former inmates, has no performance metrics to gauge the RPP’s impact on recidivism, and does not currently make any attempt to link RPP efforts to recidivism. We also found that the BOP has not yet completed a recidivism analysis r
of recidivism [25], citing the Northpointe practitioner’s guide to COMPAS that states, “scores in the medium and high range garner more interest from super-vision agencies than low scores, as a low score would suggest there is little risk of general recidivism” [30]. There
courts that do not follow these practices. Cost Savings 36% Recidivism 153% The judge spends an average of 3 minutes or more per participants during status review hearings Cost Savings 4% Recidivism 84% The judge was assigned to treatment court on a voluntary basis Cost Savings 17% Recidivism 35% The judge's term is indefinite
enthusiasm, and kindness to help me stay focused and push through the challenges of writing my dissertation. I extend my gratitude to my dissertation committee: Drs. Aaron Mann, Lambert . attitude, criminal associates, and recidivism among jail ex-inmates. 1.1.1 Recidivism and jail
Piano 2019 & 2020 Piano 2019 & 2020 GRADE 1 THREE PIECES: one chosen by the candidate from each of the three Lists, A, B and C: COMPOSER PIECE / WORK / ARRANGER PUBLICATION (PUBLISHER) 1 Attwood Theme (from Theme and Variations, Sonatina No. 4 in D) Piano Exam Pieces 2019 & 2020, Grade 1 (ABRSM) 2 Duncombe Minuet in C (from First Book of Progressive Lessons) Piano Exam Pieces 2019 & 2020 .
