Cultural Vs. Economic Legacies Of Empires: Evidence From .

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Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires:Evidence from the Partition of PolandI. Grosfeld and E. ZhuravakayaLuke Zinnen, PresenterEC 765, Spring 2018Luke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionOutline1Motivation and Background2ContributionsEmpirical StrategyResults3Discussion and ConclusionLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEconomic and Political Persistence of Historical EventsMajor and growing literature on connection between historicalevents and current political and economic outcomesSlaveryImperialismUnclear what carries through intervening timeEconomic factorsCulturalInstitutionalLikewise, mechanisms important: which are overriden by latershocks, policy?Luke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionGoals and Outcomes of the PaperUse 1815 - 1918 partition of Poland between Russia,Prussia/Germany, and Austria/Austria-Hungary as clean caseto examine persistent and attenuated factorsHomogenous before and after partitionPartition arbitrary and with sharp bordersLarge di erences between absorbing empiresEmploy spacial regression discontinuity analysis on localitiesnear empire borders during partitionFind little persistent di erence in most economic outcomes(exception: railroad infrastructure), more for religiosity and democratic capital Latter have observable e ect on liberal/religious conservativevoting patternsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionRelated LiteraturePersistence of culture and institutions, and their long-terme ects on developmentColonial rule and post-independence institutions: (Acemoglu et al.2001, La Porta et al. 1998)Legacies of the slave trade in Africa: (Nunn 2008; Pierce andSnyder 2017; Levin, Lin, and Xie 2017)Origins of cultural norms, especially among synthetic populations:(Putnam 1993, Grief 1994, Guiso et al. 2008, Tebellini 2010)Empire legacies on contemporary European outcomes:Grosjean (2011): Current cultural similarity among those subjectedto same imperial institutionsBecker et al. (2014): Old Habsburg territories in eastern Europestill have higher trust in government, less corruption compared toOttoman territoriesHerbst and Rivkin (2013), Bukowski (2014): Persistent di erencesin the quality of education across Polish partitionsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionHistorical BackgroundPoland independent country in relative declineAgrarianCulturally and governmentally advanced (e.g. noble checks onelected monarch)Series of territorial losses 1772 - 1795, at which point ceased to existReformed as Duchy of Warsaw 1806 - 1815Split between Kingdom of Prussia, Austrian and RussianEmpires at Congress of ViennaBorders constant until 1918, when independent againShort independence during interwar periodSplit by Nazi Germany and USSR, then occupied by each in turnSoviet satellite with current borders, losing territory in east,gaining old Prussian/German territories in north and westsome of which had not been part of Poland in over 900 yearsIndependent againLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionHistorical BackgroundLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionHistorical BackgroundLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionHistorical Background: Guiding the InvestigationRegions of Poland largely similar prior to long partition, underuniform government afterExact borders fairly arbitrary, not driven by preexistingadministrative lines (Austria-Russia border followed rivers)Di erent institutions/governmental treatment in each empirePrussia/German Empire: Most industrialization, education; e cient,impersonal, non-corrupt administration and courts (even ifanti-Pole); relatively moderate suppression of Catholicism andPolish identityRussia: Little industrialization and minimal education; poor andcorrupt administration and courts; severe suppression of Catholicismand Polish identityAustria/Austria-Hungary: Little industrialization but moderateeducation; inclusive, honest administration and courts, some localautonomy; no suppression of Catholicism or Polish identityBut: Post-WWII, large in ux into newly Polish territories innorth and west, mostly non-native to those areasLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsData Sources2002 census: Size of municipality, percentage of populationwith secondary educationPolish Central Statistical O ce (GUS): unemployment, wages,industrial production per capita, employment in services ornance and insuranceSocial Diagnosis Survey: mass attendance; prefers democracy;trusts government; trusts police; trusts courts; usesconnections/bribes in administrative matters; compositeregarding attitude to breaking the lawPolish Institute of Statistics of the Catholic Church: number ofpeople actually at mass on random Sunday in November 2008( objective count used to construct objective share )Geographic: various, includes railroad infrastructureO cial electoral commission: municipal level data for 2001,2005, 2007, 2011 parliamentary electionsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsReligiosityFind discontinuous jump in objective share of population andCatholics attending mass, self-reported church attendance atboth Prussia-Russia and Austria-Russia bordersLarger point estimates at Austria-Russia border in line withhistorical observation of relative treatment of CatholicsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsReligiosityLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsReligiosityLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsAttitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural TraitsFind discontinuously higher attitudes towards democracy atAustria-Russia borderOther attitudes, corruption show no such e ectDiscontinuity found is consistent with legacy ofself-governance in Austrian partitionLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsAttitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural TraitsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsAttitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural TraitsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsEconomic DevelopmentNo signi cant discontinuities were identi ed in economicdevelopment variables, except for railroad access (lines within15km radius of municipality centroid), which is denser informer Prussian territoryThis can be explained by the simple persistence of railroadlines: they last a very long timeLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsEconomic DevelopmentLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsEconomic DevelopmentLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsPolitical OutcomesRDD results depend on speci cation, but can nd di erentialsupport for parties and turnoutTurnout is found to be higher on the Austrian side of theRussia-Austria border (2-D)Consistent with legacy of self-governance in Austrian EmpireThere are discontinuities in support for two of the three majorparties at the respective bordersCivic Platform (PO, coded liberal): higher on Prussian side ofborder (2-D), Austrian side of border (both)Law and Justice (PiS, coded religious conservative): higher onAustrian side of border (both)Alliance of Democratic Left (SLD, codedleft/post-Communist): lower on Prussian and Austrian sides(1-D, weak signi cance)Turnout: higher on Austrian side (2-D)Luke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsPolitical Outcomes: Mechanisms and LegaciesLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsPolitical Outcomes: Mechanisms and LegaciesLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsPolitical Outcomes: Mechanisms and LegaciesIn whole country, PO is associated with positive attitudestowards democracyPiS is associated with religiosityTurnout is associated with religiositySuggestive that democratic capital and religiosity arechannels for empire legacies' political e ectsLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsPolitical Outcomes: Mechanisms and LegaciesLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionEmpirical StrategyResultsRobustness: Placebo ExperementRerun with hypothetical borders shifted 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 kmin each direction from actualFind percentage of results signi cant at 1%, 5%, 10%con dence levelsConsistent with random outcomes (except political)Luke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionDiscussionThe good:Plausibly exogenous setup for interesting, relevant experimentOutcomes map consistently with the story we get fromhistoriansGives answers about what legacies survive: purely cultural,more abstract attitudes; less economic measurables targeted bylater states, attitudes about practical aspects of governmentPromising line of future research for other border changesThe less good:Can't con rm the historical stories on the front end/1918:data unavailableIndependence of borders unclear, especially Russian-Austrianborder: rivers can be a barrier to di usionInterpretation that the distinction between horizontal andvertical (intra-family) transmission is necessarily speculativeLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Motivation and BackgroundContributionsDiscussion and ConclusionConclusionUsed the long-term, stable partitioning of Poland from theCongress of Vienna in 1815 to the end of the Great War in1818 as a natural experiment to examine the cultural,economic, and political legacies of empiresObtained identi cation with a spacial regression discontinuitydesign around the Russia-Prussia and Russia-Austria bordersFound that religiosity and democratic capital persisted, and inways consistent with the historical narrative, but economicfactors (excluding naturally long-lived infrastructure) did notSpeculated that the distinction is whether a characteristic ispassed primarily within a family or otherwiseLuke Zinnen, PresenterCultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires

Persistence of culture and institutions, and their long-term . change smoothly at partition borders (except altitude), so all outcome variables that exhibit a signi cant jump at the borders are the result of empire in uence . Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires.

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