Aaron Girardi And Joel Marsden - London

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Looking in more detail at selected years in the series, Table 1.1 further illustrates this long-termtrend in jobs growth in service sector activities. The number of jobs more than doubled between1971 and 2015 in Arts, entertainment and recreation (up 121,000 to 201,000 jobs),Administrative and support services (up 327,000 to 550,000 jobs), Accommodation and foodservices (up 184,000 to 365,000 jobs) and Other services (up 95,000 to 150,000 jobs). Since1996, there have also been high levels of jobs growth in Information and communication (up180,000 to 426,000 jobs), Education (up 195,000 to 423,000 jobs) and, Healthcare and socialwork (up 191,000 to 545,000 jobs). Overall, more than 90 per cent of jobs in London were inservice sectors9 in 2015, up from 87 per cent of total jobs in 1996 and from 73 per cent in 1971.Table 1.1: London’s historic workforce jobs, thousands, 1971, 1996 and 20151971Broad industrial sectorA, B, D, E: Primary and utilitiesC: ManufacturingF: ConstructionG: Wholesale, and motor tradesG: RetailH: Transport and storageI: Accommodation and food servicesJ: Information and communicationK: Finance and insuranceL, M: Professional, real estate,scientific and technical activitiesN: Administrative and support servicesO: Public Administration and defenceP: EducationQ: Healthcare and social workR: Arts, entertainment and recreationS: Other servicesTotalSource: GLA London Jobs Series.1996WFJ % of 4.0%2295.0%2685.9%2015WFJ % of .2%2466.2%3368.5%WFJ % of ,5389.9%4.0%7.6%9.8%3.6%2.7%Another way of looking at the relative importance of individual sectors to London’s economy isthrough the ‘index of specialisation’ (IOS)10.9Service sectors are denoted by the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 1-digit sections G to U.10This index combines information on the proportion of employee jobs10 in a particular sector in London, and divides this by theproportion of jobs in this sector in the rest of the country, such that:Sector employee jobs in London All employee jobs in LondonSector employee jobs in rest of GB All employee jobs in rest of GBAn index of specialisation of one means that the sector accounts for the same proportion of jobs in London as it does in the restof Great Britain. An index of specialisation of greater than one means that a higher proportion of jobs in that sector are locatedin London compared with the rest of the country.GLA Economics5

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Chapter 1 of the Economic Evidence Base for London 2016 11 presents detailed information onthis measure. This echoes the finding that London is particularly specialised in service sectorindustries, with most of these sectors recording IOS scores greater than one. In 2014, London’smost significant specialisations were in Finance and insurance activities (with an IOS of 2.5);Information and communication (2.4); and Professional, scientific and technical activities (1.8).In contrast, sectors such as Manufacturing (0.3) and Primary and utilities (0.3), which tend to bemore land intensive, have a low index of specialisation score (see Figure 1.2).Figure 1.2 plots the broad industry sector level IOS against the proportion of London’saggregate output, measured in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2014. The size of the circlerepresents the number of employee jobs in that sector. Sectors within the top right quadrants ofthis diagram – Financial and insurance activities, Information and communication, Real estate,and Professional, scientific and technical activities – would be considered as highly specialisedand contributing significant levels of output. Taken together these four sectors accounted formore than half (53 per cent) of London’s total economic output in 2014. Further analysis in theEconomic Evidence Base shows that this is up from around 42 per cent in 1997, when the GVAseries began.Figure 1.2: Index of specialisation compared to total output share, 2014Source: GLA Economics calculations; drawn from Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) - ONS, UKRegional Accounts – ONS.11GLA Economics, November 2016, ‘Economic Evidence Base for London 2016’.GLA Economics6

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 851.2London’s statistical sub-regionsIn order to study the geographical spread of employment and economic activity across thecapital, this study will follow the ONS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)2010 arrangement for sub-regions. This convention sees Greater London corresponding toNUTS-1, NUTS-2 divides inner London into two sub divisions and outer London into three subdivisions, with NUTS-3 splitting these sub divisions further into individual boroughs or localauthority groupings. Below this level, where appropriate, data at local levels will be drawn on inorder to add further detail to these economic geographies. Table 1.2 and Map 1.1 presents theNUTS-2 statistical sub-regions and their constituent local authorities.Table 1.2: Classification of London’s statistical sub regionsInner LondonOuter LondonInner London –WestInner London –EastOuter London –West and NorthWestCamdenCity of LondonHammersmith andFulhamKensington ngtonLambethLewishamNewhamSouthwarkTower chmond uponThamesOuter London –Outer London –East and North East SouthBarking Waltham ForestBromleyCroydonKingston uponThamesMertonSuttonMap 1.1: London’s five NUTS-2 sub-regions for statistical purposesSource: GLA Intelligence UnitThe next section provides a detailed account of the structure and make-up of London’seconomy from this geographic perspective.GLA Economics7

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 852The structure of London’s local economiesThis section provides a detailed, descriptive account of the structure and make-up of London’slocal economies, in terms of their jobs and output. It also draws out particular instances ofindustry specialisation, with a particular focus on areas outside of the CAZ.The analysis that follows looks in detail at the make-up of local economies in relation to ONSStandard Industrial Classifications (SIC). For readers interested in non-standard industry sectors,GLA Economics have published detailed research at London level on cross-cutting, nonstandard sectors including tourism 12, science and technology 13 and the creative industries 14.2.1Self-employment across LondonSection 1.1 showed that there were more than 5.5 million jobs in London in 2015. This figure,taken from the ONS Workforce Jobs series, is the preferred metric for London-wide data andincludes estimates of the self-employed. Since this data is not available at sub-regional levels,this working paper instead makes use of 2014 data from the ONS Business Register andEmployment Survey (BRES). This presents information on the number of employee jobsregistered with each employer, and does not therefore capture the number of self-employedworkers or working proprietors. As with Workforce Jobs, BRES provides a count of jobs,irrespective of the number of working hours 15.2.2Jobs across London’s sub-regions and local areasThe structure of the economy varies across London. This section provides an overview ofemployee jobs in London’s five statistical sub-regions (see section 1.2). Where appropriate, thenumber of jobs and distribution of employment across and within the component localauthorities is also highlighted.Looking at London as a whole, while outer London is home to a majority of residents (60 percent), the majority of jobs (62 per cent) are located in inner London. Table 2.1 shows that thisaggregate pattern is largely unchanged since 1971 16. However while Greater London as a wholehas grown by almost 950,000 residents, and 400,000 employee jobs from 1971 to 2014, thepopulation of Inner London - West has fallen slightly over this period (see Table 2.1).12GLA Economics, March 2015, The value of cultural tourism to London, Current Issues Note 44.GLA Economics, March 2015, The science and technology category in London, Working Paper 64.14GLA Economics, October 2015, The creative industries in London, Working Paper 70.15BRES estimates of employee jobs by sector differ slightly from the Workforce Jobs series for employees, which is a compositeseries of a number of surveys16Data for 1971 is taken from GLA Economics calculations of historic employee jobs in: GLA Economics labour marketprojections. For consistency with the detailed descriptions that follow, this paper uses jobs estimates from the 2014 BRES data.13GLA Economics8

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Table 2.1: Population and employee jobs in London sub-regions, 1971 and 2014Mid-year 51620143,3951,1232,2735,129Share of totalLondon population197140%15%25%60%201440%13%27%60%Employee jobs(‘000s)Inner LondonInner - WestInner - EastOuter LondonOuter - West1,7302,03623%24%and North WestOuter - East1,5991,83921%22%and North EastOuter - South1,1871,25516%15%Greater London7,5768,525100%100%Sources: Resident mid-year population – ONS; GLA London Jobs Series.Share of Londontotal employee 12%11%4264,2894374,73310%100%9%100%Note: The employee jobs figures for 2014 are taken directly from BRES to allow for further breakdowns later in thisdocument. As such they are very slightly inconsistent with the London Jobs Series published by GLA Economics (forits employment projections).Figure 2.2 looks in more detail at the trends in employee jobs over time. Following a slump injobs numbers across London from the early 1980s to mid-1990s, jobs growth has been fastest inInner London - East and Inner London - West. Jobs in Outer London - East and North East andOuter London - South have instead been fairly stagnant over the last four decades.Figure 2.2: Employee jobs in London (NUTS-2) sub-regions over time, 1971-20142,000,0001,800,000Jobs 00600,000400,000200,0000Inner WestInner EastOuter West and North WestOuter East and North EastOuter SouthSource: GLA London Jobs SeriesGLA Economics9

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85In terms of the broad structure of London’s economy, Table 2.2 highlights that 39 per cent ofjobs in inner London are in four highly specialised, high value sectors. These are: Informationand Communication; Finance and insurance; Real estate; Professional, scientific and technicalactivities. In contrast, such jobs account for less than 17 per cent of jobs in outer London as awhole. Instead, almost one in four jobs (23 per cent) in outer London are in the Education andHealth and social work sectors, and a further 25 per cent of jobs are in Wholesale, and motortrades; Retail; and Transport and storage sectors. This compares with 18 per cent and 17 percent of jobs in inner London respectively.Table 2.2: Employee jobs by industry in inner and outer London, thousands, 2014LondonIndustry sector (SIC 2007)Inner LondonOuter LondonEmployeejobs (‘000s)% oftotalEmployeejobs (‘000s)% oftotalA, B, D, E: Primary and utilitiesC: (‘000s)1578F: Construction1453.1%642.2%814.5%G: Wholesale, and motor trades1884.0%792.7%1096.0%G: Retail4078.6%2137.3%19310.7%H: Transport and storage2274.8%832.8%1448.0%I: Accommodation and food services3587.6%2458.4%1136.3%J: Information and communication3738.0%2759.4%985.4%K: Finance and insurance3527.4%31510.7%372.0%L: Real estate activities1082.3%762.6%321.7%M: Professional, scientific andtechnical activities61413.0%47516.2%1397.7%N: Administrative and support services49110.4%29710.1%19410.7%O: Public Administration and defence2204.6%1465.0%744.1%P: Education3868.1%1966.7%19010.5%Q: Healthcare and social work48410.2%2558.7%22912.7%R: Arts, entertainment and recreation1252.6%792.7%462.5%S: Other services1152.4%782.7%372.0%All industry sectors4,7332,927% oftotal0.8%4.3%1,806Source: BRES 2014 – ONS. Note: employee jobs numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000.2.2.1 Clustering of employment in LondonJobs in London are concentrated in the CAZ and the NIOD 17. This is highlighted by theconcentration of workers by workplace zone, the lowest geographical level used for economicanalysis. This is shown with 2015 data from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) inMap 2.1.17See Chapter 2 of: GLA Economics, November 2016, ‘Economic Evidence Base for London 2016’.GLA Economics10

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Map 2.1: Jobs density in London by workplace zone, 2015Source: ONS IDBR 18.Change in the density of employee jobs from 2009 to 2015 is presented at the same level ofgeographic detail in Map 2.2. This highlights that while the CAZ has been a major engine of jobsgrowth since the recession, there are several patterns of more modest jobs growth in thesurrounding areas, particularly through Hackney and Tower Hamlets. There was also significantemployment growth in the NIOD, surrounding the terminals at Heathrow airport and aroundStratford, related to the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and Westfield shopping centredevelopments. Areas of substantial falls in jobs (shaded in dark red) tend to be scattered andare predominantly confined to small pockets of the CAZ, possibly as a result of redevelopmentsor office refurbishments. The pattern of change in Croydon town centre was also one ofdeclining jobs density, albeit interspersed with some zones of modest jobs growth.18Data on workplaces and employees by Workplace Zones can be accessed at: ONS, August 2016, ‘Number of workplaces andemployees in Workplace Zones in London, 2009 to 2015’. User Requested data No. 005995.GLA Economics11

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Map 2.2: Change in jobs density in London by workplace zone, 2009-2015Source: ONS IDBRAt the detailed level of workplace zones, it is also possible to observe the structure ofemployment by broad industry sectors. Map 2.3 highlights the importance of certaingeographies for different sectors of London’s economy using cluster analysis 19 on Census data.This shows that Financial and insurance activities and Professional, scientific and technicalactivities are of significant importance in central London; while highlighting also small pocketsin Richmond and Kingston in the South West. It also highlights the dominance of Transport andcommunication in many areas in outer London, this is particularly visible around Heathrowairport and but also so around City airport in inner London, as well as along the Lower LeaValley and the river Thames. The clustering of employment in Public administration, Educationand Health activities throughout inner and outer London, is in part in order to serve thepopulation of these areas and is also highlighted 20.19Cluster analysis groups together areas with similar characteristics. K-means clustering was applied to grouped Industrial classdata available for London's 2011 Census Workplace Zones. Running the k-means algorithm identified five clusters of WorkplaceZones that demonstrated a strong similarity in the Industrial type of its workers, these were SIC-2007 industrial sectors:G, I: Distribution, hotels and restaurants; K: Financial and insurance activities; M: Professional, scientific and technical activitiesO, P, Q: Public administration, education and health; and H, J: Transport and communication. All other areas were not foundto have a dominate industry type present so were grouped together.20Section E of the Appendix to chapter 2 of the Economic Evidence Base, includes additional maps providing detail on theindividual clusters for London and the Greater South East.GLA Economics12

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Map 2.3: Dominant employment clusters in London by workplace zones in 2011Source: Census and GLA Intelligence Unit AnalysisAnother way of looking at the nature of London’s economic geography and the clustering ofcertain types of jobs is provided by the Classification of Workplace Zones for England and Wales(COWZ-EW). This is based on analysis, at national level, to examine whether areas are similar ordifferent depending on their workers’ and workplaces’ characteristics. As can be seen from Map2.4 the centre of London, and the NIOD is dominated by “Top jobs”, where this is defined as“high status employment in business, industry and public service – primarily the highest statuscity centres but also top science and business parks” 21. This further highlights the global natureof output in a number of pockets of London outside of this central core. This is visible, forexample, along the M4 and A40 corridors to the west of central London out towards Heathrowairport and Wembley respectively. In terms of manufacturing and distribution, Map 2.4 againhighlights the role of London’s airports and rivers.21Cockings, S., Martin, D., & Harfoot, A., August 2015, ‘A Classification of Workplace Zones for England and Wales (COWZEW): Annex A - Profiles of Supergroups’.GLA Economics13

A description of London's economyWorking Paper 85Map 2.4: Workplace zones type in London by COWZ-EW classificationSource: Census data via DataShine COWZ-EW and GLA Intelligence Unit mappingThe detailed maps above rely on information from the 2011 Census. In order to capture thelatest patterns, we next turn to look in detail at the economic structure of London’s five NUTS2 sub-regions, introduced in Section 1.2. Note also that in line with the Economic Evidence Basefor London 2016, this paper uses ONS BRES data for 2014.2.2.2 Inner London - West, and its local authoritiesThere were an estimated 1.8 million employee jobs across Inner London - West in 2014, withCamden, the City of London and Westminster together responsible for almost 80 per cent of thejobs in the area. Figure 2.3 provides an overview of the economic structure of this sub-region,showing also the local authorities contribution to the total numbers of jobs by industry.This reveals that the largest employing industry in Inner London - West is Professional, scientificand technical activities (322,000 jobs), with the three central local authorities of Camden, theCity of London, and Westminster responsible for nearly 90 per cent. Jobs in Finance andinsurance accounted for around 219,000 jobs in Inner London - West, of which 160,000 ofthese jobs were in the City of London, and 42,000 were in Westminster.The three next largest sectors in Inner London - West in terms of jobs are: Information andcommunication (174,000 jobs), Accommodation and food services (165,000 jobs),Administrative and support services (164,000 jobs). The former is also concentrated in thecentral local authorities of Westminster, Camden and the City (accounting for 80 per cent of theindustry’s jobs in the sub-region). Information and communication is also the largest employerin Hammersmith and Fulham (20,000 jobs), accounting for 15 per cent of jobs in the borough.In Kensington and Chelsea, the main e

Administrative and support services (up 327,000 to 550,000 jobs), Accommodation and food services (up 184,000 to 365,000 jobs) and Other services (up 95,000 to 150,000 jobs). Since 1996, there have also been high levels of jobs growth in Information and communication (up 180,000 to 426,000 jobs), Education (up 195,000 to 423,000 jobs) and .