How To Lie With Statistics - Mas.ncl.ac.uk
How to Lie with Statistics Malcolm Farrow (based partly on the book by Darrell Huff) September 2010
Huff, D., 1954. How to Lie with Statistics, Penguin.
“Lies, damned lies and statistics”
“Lies, damned lies and statistics” Mark Twain, 1907: “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics’.”
“Lies, damned lies and statistics” Mark Twain, 1907: “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics’.” However it seems that Disraeli never actually said this.
“Lies, damned lies and statistics” Mark Twain, 1907: “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics’.” However it seems that Disraeli never actually said this. The phrase was used in 1895 in an essay in The National Review by Leonard Courtney (1832-1918, a British politician).
“Lies, damned lies and statistics” Mark Twain, 1907: “Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics’.” However it seems that Disraeli never actually said this. The phrase was used in 1895 in an essay in The National Review by Leonard Courtney (1832-1918, a British politician). In 1897 Leonard Courtney became President of the Royal Statistical Society.
Percentages
Percentages . . . of what?
Percentages . . . of what? Pay: 1000 per month.
Percentages . . . of what? Pay: 1000 per month. “Sorry guys. You have to have a 10% pay cut.”
Percentages . . . of what? Pay: 1000 per month. “Sorry guys. You have to have a 10% pay cut.” Pay: 900 per month.
Percentages . . . of what? Pay: 1000 per month. “Sorry guys. You have to have a 10% pay cut.” Pay: 900 per month. “Now I can give you a 10% pay rise.”
Percentages . . . of what? Pay: 1000 per month. “Sorry guys. You have to have a 10% pay cut.” Pay: 900 per month. “Now I can give you a 10% pay rise.” Pay: 990 per month.
Percentages “A separate opinion poll yesterday suggested that 50% of obese people earn less than the national average income.” The Guardian 3 November 2009
Percentages “40% rise in swine flu deaths in 48 hours as two more die.” “The number of swine flu deaths in Scotland has soared by 40% in just 48 hours, after the Scottish Government confirmed that a further two people died after contracting the virus. Their deaths take the total swine flu fatalities to 14, . . . ” Glasgow Herald, 13 October 2009
Percentages “I must write again about the misleading adverts by GMPTE in the papers re the Congestion Charge. In their latest round of propaganda they state there will be a 10 per cent increase in bus services. With 10 councils in Greater Manchester this works out at a one per cent increase per council. If Stockport’s bus companies run 200 buses in the morning peak, a one per cent increase will give two extra buses; is that what you want?” Letter to Stockport Express, 26 November 2008
Percentages “85% fat free!”
Percentages “85% fat free!” “15% fat!”
Percentages “Guaranteed minimum return of up to 6%” Advert for Stanley Gibbons (Guernsey) Ltd. in The Spectator 15 November 2008
The wrong proportions “People who have personalised number plates on their cars are most likely to live in Scotland, a survey has found.” BBC News Scotland 11 January 2009
The wrong proportions
The wrong proportions “More than 90% of cold-sufferers treated with Farrow’s Cold Cure had relief from symptoms within seven days.”
The wrong proportions “More than 90% of cold-sufferers treated with Farrow’s Cold Cure had relief from symptoms within seven days.” “More road accidents occur in clear weather than in foggy weather.”
The wrong proportions “More than 90% of cold-sufferers treated with Farrow’s Cold Cure had relief from symptoms within seven days.” “More road accidents occur in clear weather than in foggy weather.” “Flying is the safest means of transport.”
The wrong proportions “More than 90% of cold-sufferers treated with Farrow’s Cold Cure had relief from symptoms within seven days.” “More road accidents occur in clear weather than in foggy weather.” “Flying is the safest means of transport.” The “Prosecutor’s Fallacy.”
Misleading Relationships “Lurking variables”. Storks and babies. Simpson’s Paradox.
Graphs
Graphs
Graphs
Graphs
Graphs
Graphs
Graphs
Graphs The Sunday Times 8 February 2004
135 140 Share Price 145 150 Graphs 5 10 15 Time 20 25
0 50 100 Share Price 150 Graphs 5 10 15 Time 20 25
135 140 Share Price 145 150 Graphs 10 15 20 Time 25
Graphs The Times Higher 23 January 2004
46000 44000 42000 40000 Degrees 48000 Graphs 2000 1 2001 2 2002 3 Year 2003 4
30000 10000 0 Degrees 50000 Graphs 2000 1 2001 2 2002 3 Year 2003 4
Surveys
Surveys Whom did they ask?
Surveys Whom did they ask? How were they chosen?
Surveys Whom did they ask? How were they chosen? How many did they ask?
Surveys Whom did they ask? How were they chosen? How many did they ask? How many of them answered?
Surveys Whom did they ask? How were they chosen? How many did they ask? How many of them answered? What did they ask?
Surveys Whom did they ask? How were they chosen? How many did they ask? How many of them answered? What did they ask? How did they ask it?
Surveys: The 1936 US Presidential Election Literary Digest: Huge sample of telephone subscribers and car owners. Predicted easy win for Landon (Republican).
Surveys: The 1936 US Presidential Election Literary Digest: Huge sample of telephone subscribers and car owners. Predicted easy win for Landon (Republican). Gallup. Very much smaller random sample. Predicted Roosevelt (Democrat) win.
Surveys: The 1936 US Presidential Election Literary Digest: Huge sample of telephone subscribers and car owners. Predicted easy win for Landon (Republican). Gallup. Very much smaller random sample. Predicted Roosevelt (Democrat) win. Roosevelt won.
Surveys: Questions
Surveys: Questions Are they ambiguous?
Surveys: Questions Are they ambiguous? Are they loaded?
Surveys: Questions Are they ambiguous? Are they loaded? Will the subject understand the question in the way intended?
Surveys: Questions Are they ambiguous? Are they loaded? Will the subject understand the question in the way intended? Will you understand the subject’s response?
Survey Questions: Examples “Do you feel that Britain should join the European Monetary Union immediately or only after a period of three to five years?”
Survey Questions: Examples “Do you feel that Britain should join the European Monetary Union immediately or only after a period of three to five years?” “Joining the European Monetary Union would have many benefits for Britain in terms of jobs and prosperity. Do you believe that Britain should join?”
Survey Questions: Examples “Do you feel that Britain should join the European Monetary Union immediately or only after a period of three to five years?” “Joining the European Monetary Union would have many benefits for Britain in terms of jobs and prosperity. Do you believe that Britain should join?” “Do you believe that Britain should scrap the pound and hand over control of our economy to bureaucrats in Brussels and German bankers?”
Survey Questions: Examples “When driving a car, how often do you break the speed limit? All the time Very often Fairly often Only sometimes Never” “Which of these magazines do you usually read? . . . ” “Which of these magazines have you read in the last month? .” “How many times a day do you clean your teeth?”
Averages
Averages What kind of average?
Averages What kind of average? Average of what?
Averages What kind of average? Average of what? Who was counted?
Averages What kind of average? Average of what? Who was counted? E.g. “average family”: what counts as a “family”?
Averages What kind of average? Average of what? Who was counted? E.g. “average family”: what counts as a “family”? Has the population changed?
Averages What kind of average? Average of what? Who was counted? E.g. “average family”: what counts as a “family”? Has the population changed? Hardly anyone is average!
Averages 300 200 100 0 Frequency 400 500 Histogram of Income 0 50 100 Income (thousands) 150
Averages Mean income: Median income: Modal income: 28720. 24042. around 14300.
How to talk back to a statistic.
How to talk back to a statistic. Who says so?
How to talk back to a statistic. Who says so? How do they know?
How to talk back to a statistic. Who says so? How do they know? What’s missing?
How to talk back to a statistic. Who says so? How do they know? What’s missing? Did somebody change the subject?
How to talk back to a statistic. Who says so? How do they know? What’s missing? Did somebody change the subject? Does it make sense?
Hope for the future? Office for National Statistics (ONS) ONS made independent of Government by the Statistics and Registration Service Act, 2007. National Statistician (Head of ONS)
\Lies, damned lies and statistics" Mark Twain,1907: \Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies:lies, damned lies and statistics'." However it seems thatDisraelinever actually said this.
Chapter II. Lie groups and their Lie algebras33 1. Matrix Lie groups34 1.1. Continuous symmetries34 1.2. Matrix Lie groups: de nition and examples34 1.3. Topological considerations38 2. Lie algebras of matrix Lie groups43 2.1. Commutators43 2.2. Matrix exponentiald and Lie's formulas43 2.3. The Lie algebra of a matrix Lie group45 2.4.
call them matrix Lie groups. The Lie correspondences between Lie group and its Lie algebra allow us to study Lie group which is an algebraic object in term of Lie algebra which is a linear object. In this work, we concern about the two correspondences in the case of matrix Lie groups; namely, 1.
Chapter 1. Introduction 7 Chapter 2. Lie Groups: Basic Definitions 9 §2.1. Lie groups, subgroups, and cosets 9 §2.2. Action of Lie groups on manifolds and representations 12 §2.3. Orbits and homogeneous spaces 13 §2.4. Left, right, and adjoint action 14 §2.5. Classical groups 15 Exercises 18 Chapter 3. Lie Groups and Lie algebras 21 §3.1 .
Chapter 1. Lie Groups 1 1. An example of a Lie group 1 2. Smooth manifolds: A review 2 3. Lie groups 8 4. The tangent space of a Lie group - Lie algebras 12 5. One-parameter subgroups 15 6. The Campbell-Baker-HausdorfT formula 20 7. Lie's theorems 21 Chapter 2. Maximal Tori and the Classification Theorem 23 1. Representation theory: elementary .
Chapter 1. Introduction 7 Chapter 2. Lie Groups: Basic Definitions 9 §2.1. Lie groups, subgroups, and cosets 9 §2.2. Action of Lie groups on manifolds and representations 12 §2.3. Orbits and homogeneous spaces 13 §2.4. Left, right, and adjoint action 14 §2.5. Classical groups 15 Exercises 18 Chapter 3. Lie Groups and Lie algebras 21 §3.1 .
(1) R and C are evidently Lie groups under addition. More generally, any nite dimensional real or complex vector space is a Lie group under addition. (2) Rnf0g, R 0, and Cnf0gare all Lie groups under multiplication. Also U(1) : fz2C : jzj 1gis a Lie group under multiplication. (3) If Gand H are Lie groups then the product G H is a Lie group .
The Lie algebra g 1 g 2 is called the direct sum of g 1 and g 2. De nition 1.1.2. Given g 1;g 2 k-Lie algebras, a morphism f : g 1!g 2 of k-Lie algebras is a k-linear map such that f([x;y]) [f(x);f(y)]. Remarks. id: g !g is a Lie algebra homomorphism. f: g 1!g 2;g: g 2!g 3 Lie algebra homomorphisms, then g f: g 1! g 2 is a Lie algebra .
2 It did not seem to be such a big deal!!!! The lie didnt seem to be a really big lie Just a slight twisting or misrepresentation of the truth What some people today call Za little white lie [ Even the lie itself was cloaked within another lie At this point, please allow me to share two passages of Scripture with you Proverbs 6:16-17 - NIV - Don't be foolish!!!
