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THE TOULOUSE SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS MAGAZINELiving ng a new eraThree eveningsof public debateat TSEMarc Fontaine,Airbus, on big datafor planesChristian Gollieron global warmingand his new bookGoogle visits TSEand exchangeswith the students

19 Content #Editor ' messag New & event Dear friends,4-5 Appointments & prizesIn reaction to the “gilet jaune” social upheaval,France’s president Emmanuel Macron launched aGrand Débat National this Spring. Two months ofdebates and assemblies that could be organised byanybody and were necessarily public.When I heard the Grand Débat announcement,I strongly felt that TSE had a duty to get involved.As academic economists at TSE, we have two mainmissions: to foster research aimed at improving ourunderstanding of economics, and to transfer ourknowledge to the future generations via the courses we teach to our students,tomorrow's economists. But there is also a third, core purpose, that we tend toneglect: reaching out to the public and taking part in debate in order to share ourknowledge with the world.Upcoming events6-7 Global warming: how topay the billsChristian Gollier9Christian GollierOne of the issues discussed at our Grand Débat evenings was the impact oftechnology on jobs, equality, and on society as a whole. We are living through amassive transformation of our society, as artificial intelligence becomes increasingly powerful. This AI revolution is the special focus of this TSE Mag, featuringthe latest TSE Digital Center research on the subject as well as guest insights fromMIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Stanford’s Susan Athey. A fast-paced and exciting readthat I hope you will enjoy.Emmanuelle AuriolNicolas WerquinEcological transitionChristian GollierZohra Bouamra MechemacheARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEEntering a new eraWe hence organized three Grand Débat evenings dedicated to exchanges withTSE faculty members on global warming, food, education, immigration, taxes andinequalities. Our colleagues Emmanuelle Auriol, Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache,Frédéric Cherbonnier, Paul Seabright, Nicolas Werquin and myself gave short talkson our research work and then exchanged with the public on possible solutions tothe issues our country is facing.The events were very fruitful; many constructive ideas were co-imagined there,and I was sincerely impressed by the high level of thought and effort from all involved, from the faculty to the staff to the general public. We have made sure tosend the full account of these exchanges to the French government through theGrand Débat participative website, and we plan to organize a regular series of similar debates in our new building, from 2020 onwards.Zohra Bouamra-MechemacheNationa Debat a TSE10Public services and citizenshipEmmanuelle AuriolPaul Seabright11Tax and public spendingFrédéric CherbonnierNicolas WerquinWe are living through amassive transformationof our society, as artificialintelligence becomesincreasingly powerful.14Will robots take our jobs?Actor 16The impact of AI2418AI Regulatory Issues20Machine learning and the law22Machine learning and economicsLaunching the TSE Digital CenterYassine Lefouili on the digital economy26Agility is tomorrow’s challengeAirbus Marc Fontaine on the evolutionof the aviation industryCampu Best regards to all,Trimestrial magazine of Toulouse School of Economics21, allée de Brienne - 31 015 Toulouse Cedex 6 - FRANCE - Tél. : 33 (0)5 67 73 27 68Christian Gollier, TSE DirectorPublication Director: Christian Gollier - Managing Editor: Joël EchevarriaEditor in chief: Jennifer Stephenson - Production Manager: Jean-Baptiste GrossettiWith the help of: Claire Navarro - James NashGraphic design and layout: YapakPictures: studiotchiz fotolia istock unsplash.1000 magazines printed on offset paper from renewable forests. ISSN: 2554-325328Preparing students for today'senvironmental challenges30Google visits TSEtse-fr.eu3

New & event New & event Appointments & prizesThe Deaton Review:Jean Tirole involved ina new study onInequalities in theTwenty First Century2018 Banque deFrance - TSE Prizelaureates revealedThe Institute for Fiscal Studies (Britain’s leading independent microeconomic researchinstitute) is launching a 5-year review of inequalities, with the involvement of Jean Tirole(TSE Honorary Chairman) as well as manyexperts in different scientific fields which willdevelop proposals for the most effective policy responses to different types of inequality.Best paper awardedto Andrew RhodesThe TSE-UTC researcher has beenawarded the Robert J. Lanzillotti prizefor the best article in antitrust economics for his paper "MultiproductMergers and Quality Competition"(joint with Justin Johnson, Cornell theInternational Industrial OrganizationConference in Boston.At a special conference, which took place onThursday March 14, presided by FrançoisVilleroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque deFrance, and Jean Tirole, TSE Honorary Chairman,the 2018 Prizes in Monetary Economics andFinance were awarded to Michael Woodford(Columbia University), Victoria Vanasco (CREI)and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (Berkeley University).Fabrice Collard(TSE - CNRS) receivesthe 2019 Maurice AllaisawardFabrice Collard, Michel Habib (University of Zurich)and Jean-Charles Rochet (University of Geneva)received the 2019 Maurice Allais award for theirpaper "Sovereign Debt Sustainability in AdvancedEconomies". In particular,their work provides a formula to assess a country'smaximum sustainabledebt-to-GDP ratio, but alsoto calculate a theoreticalprobability of default foreach country.Upcomin event ts -fr.e /event JULY9-12,2019useR! 20194tse-fr.euJacques Crémer co-wrote areport on Competition PolicyIn March 2018, the European Commission appointedJacques Crémer (TSE – CNRS), Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye(Imperial College London) and Heike Schweitzer (Universityof Berlin) as special advisers to Commissioner MargretheVestager on the future challenges of digitization for competition policy. Less than a year later, the three special advisers have delivered a reportgathering most of the recent literature on competition policy and its adaptationto digitization. Jacques Crémer discussed the report with TSE Mag.What are the objectives of thisreport?The main objective is to proposeguidelines for the evolution of competition policy in the digital era forthe next few years. We emphasizethat the economy in the digital erais very different from the economyfor which competition policy wasdesigned and thus, even though thegoals of competition policy shouldremain the same, the tools mustbe adapted.How can these tools be -27,2019New Challengesin InsuranceThe PRI Academic NetworkConference 2019Society forBenefit-Cost Analysis:European Conference 2019The report is composed of four mainchapters presenting different issuesand detailing several propositions.The first is dedicated to the toolsof competition policy; the second isabout the treatment of platforms; thethird explores how to treat data; andthe final chapter deals with mergersand what are called “killer acquisitions”, or “killer-mergers”, which havebeen particularly scrutinized in therecent literature.Where should competition policybe headed?There is a continuous need to rethinkcompetition policy. We’re entering aworld which we don’t understandvery well and we need to make decisions depending on how this worldevolves, how new technologies develop and what we learn.working on computational privacy,and we didn’t know each other before. I can’t say it’s been a perfectlysmooth process but, overall, it wentvery well and we succeeded in finding a common language.How is the TSE Digital Centerworking on these issues?In this report, we discuss how platforms act as regulators of theireconomy. This is directly inspired bythe recent literature on two-sidedplatforms, including lot of differentwork led by my colleagues at TSE.What was it like working on thisreport?It was a bit scary at the beginningbecause the three of us are from different disciplines. Heike Schweitzer is alawyer specialized in antitrust issuesand Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye isFind out moreRead the report on 2018/report en.htmltse-fr.eu5

New & event CHRISTIAN GOLLIER ON HIS NEW BOOKGlobal warming:how to pay the billsThe director of TSE and vice-president of the European Associationof Environmental Economists presents his new book, "Le climataprès la fin du mois" published by Puf Editions, which exploresthe solutions proposed by economists to combat global warming.Why this title?For 30 years, citizens have been lulledto sleep by the story of a happy energy transition that creates jobs, reducesenergy prices and saves the world. Withthe increase in fuel prices at the pump,people are realizing that this transitioncost them a lot of money. They are disoriented, and many are no longer surethey want to give up some of theirpurchasing power to help fight globalwarming. Ultimately, the greenhouseeffect forces us to abandon a cheap,easy-to-use fossil fuel in favor of muchmore expensive and much less easy-touse renewable energies until we havea solution to store electricity on a largescale. The reality shock is severe. Therebellion is at hand. Paying the bills atthe end of the month comes before theend of the world.A uniform carbon priceof 50 would imply a lossof purchasing powerof around 300 per and perperson.year and per personWhat solution does the bookrecommend?People cannot be mobilized for a globalclimate war based on lies. The truth isthat you and I are individually responsible6tse-fr.eufor the problem. On average, every tonof CO2 emitted will cause more than 1,000 of damage in 80 years. EachFrench citizen emits an average of sixtons of CO2 every year, so everyone hasa personal climate debt that is growingby more than 6,000 annually. Peoplemust be made aware of this individualresponsibility. But let’s not rely on theiraltruism to translate this awarenessinto action. To force them to act responsibly, economists recommend thatany CO2 emitter should be required topay the present value of future damagecaused by their behavior. This "carbonprice", or ecological tax, is an application of the polluter-pays principle thatthe French have always supported atthe ballot box. But will they accept itwhen it impacts upon themselves? Thesurveys conducted during the ‘yellowvests’ movement are not encouraging.This tax is not intended to be punitive.It is the ideal instrument to encouragepeople to take into account the climatedamage caused by their behavior. Thiswill lead them to reduce their emissions. We know that a 10% increase inthe price of fuel reduces fuel consumption by 9% in the long term.How much would this carbon taxcost?As most of the damage caused by the emission of one ton of CO2 will not materializeChristian GollierTSE Directorfor many decades, the value of this damage today is well below the 1,000 pricetag mentioned above. Overall, climateeconomists believe that this discountedvalue is around 50 euros per ton of CO2.Today, the carbon tax is locked at 44per ton of CO2, while European industrialists pay their emission permits at anequilibrium price on the permit marketof around 27 per ton. A uniform carbon price of 50 would imply a loss ofpurchasing power of around 300 peryear and per person. That's not trivial.But this price is largely insufficient toachieve the climate objective that allFrench governments have set themselves over the past 20 years. The planis therefore to increase this price by 8%per year (2nd Quinet Report).Applying this tax directly would haveunequal effects. Even if the highest incomes will contribute more because theirbig cars and houses consume more energy, the share of their income spent onthis tax will be much smaller than thatof the lowest incomes: this is what wecall a regressive tax. Redistribution systems must therefore be put in place atthe same time to compensate thoseon the lowest revenues from this tax,for example with green vouchers or areduction in the social charges on lowskilled labor, financed by the revenuesfrom this tax.Does this tax have political support?In 2007, Nicolas Hulot won almost unanimous support from the presidentialcandidates for his climate plan, whichadvocated a high carbon price. Today,no party, with the notable exception ofMacron’s LREM, talks about a carbontax or the polluter-pays principle anymore. It is a disaster for our country anda Pyrrhic victory for the yellow vests.Macron has given almost all the decision-making power over climate policyto a randomly selected assembly of 150citizens that will meet this summer. Iadmit that I am very worried.If France is to respect its international commitments, the alternatives toecological taxation are not very promising. Authoritarian solutions, such asanti-pollution regulation for cars andthermal emission standards for buildings, are bad instruments becausethey encourage people to consumemore. We call this the rebound effect.If my new car consumes half as muchfuel as before, will I not want to drivetwice as much? In addition, the costto France of its very generous pricesfor photovoltaic electricity is almost 1,500 for every ton of CO2 emissionsavoided, while the yellow vests are noteven willing to sacrifice 50! This billis paid by consumers in their electricity bills.If we want to achieve a given climateobjective, a universal carbon price is thesolution that requires the least sacrificefrom citizens. It guarantees that all efforts that cost less than the price of 50 per ton of CO2 will be implemented, andonly them. It's simple, it's transparentand it's manipulation-proof! All othersolutions will be more damaging to thepurchasing power of French households.Nevertheless, in the current politicalcontext, these other solutions havethe irresistible advantage of camouflaging their costs to citizens.Are there any otheralternatives?It's not easy. Democracy is the dictatorship of the present, since futuregenerations are victims of our irresponsibility and they do not have theright to vote in current elections. This iswhy some philosophers such as HansJonas are advocating for an ecological dictatorship that would imposeon present generations a decrease infossil-fuel consumption compatiblewith the common interest of generations called upon to spend time onour planet. The other solution wouldbe to roll the dice on the fate of humanity, betting on the emergence ofcompetitive green technologies inthe face of oil extraction costs at 2a barrel in Saudi Arabia. This seemsextremely risky.tse-fr.eu7

THREE PUBLIC EVENINGSFrench national debateat TSEEcological transitionFighting global warmingChristian Gollier presented the idea of a carbon coalition in which a group of countries would agree to put a price on carbon emissions and tax all imports fromnon-coalition countries. This solution, defended by the 2018 Nobel prize winner ineconomics, William Nordhaus, has the elegance of being transparent, resistant tolobbying and, above all, it can solve the free-rider problem.KEY PROPOSALSImplement effective policy to limit global temperatureincrease to 2 CEstablish a global and universal carbon price of around 50 per tonne of CO2Organize a coalition of countries willing to tax carbon andimports from non-membersPromote a selective decrease in growthIn France, eliminate all hidden subsidies and exemptionsfor CO2-emitting productsPUBLIC PROPOSALSImplement new indicators that are more precise thanGDP, taking into account environmental impactsWork with international organizations to integrateenvironmental dumping in their analysesCreate a European budget and a climate bank to financeinvestments and environmental measuresPromote individual behavior and collective measuresuseful in the fight against global warmingFood and ClimateAfter a short summary of the impact of food on our climate, and in particular thecontribution of animal products to greenhouse gases, Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache presented her research on the impact of a carbon tax on meat production.She supports a tax on beef alone, which would have a smaller environmentalimpact but would be less costly for consumers. She also emphasized that supply solutions are complicated to implement and referred to initiatives that wouldimpact demand, such as Green Monday.KEY PROPOSALSFollowing Emmanuel Macron'sinitiative to organize a major nationaldebate on French issues and problems,TSE researchers and students welcomedinterested participants for three evenings todiscuss ecological transition, tax, inequality,education, immigration and public spending.8tse-fr.euIncrease awareness of the importance of CO2 emissionsfrom agriculture, and livestock in particularFocus on the link between health and environmentalimpactsImplement combined measures to influence supply andconsumption, through incentives to reduce demandDirect meat consumption towards products that are bothnutritional and environmentally friendlyPUBLIC PROPOSALSReduce meat consumption in school canteensand other public placesIntegrate animal welfare into policy considerationsPromote consistent communication on these topicsPromote existing initiatives such as Green MondayDon’t ignore French culinary culture in messageson meat consumptionEnsure that severely affected farmers do not sufferfurther, and implement targeted measurestse-fr.eu9

Frenc Nationa Debat Public servicesand citizenshipImmigration: Problem or Opportunity?Emmanuelle Auriol demonstrated that immigration is above all a question ofeconomic mobility and that the vast majority of immigrants come to find workin their host country. She also underlined that immigrants contribute to thegrowth and economy of their host countries. The debate then focused on theproblems that immigration can pose from a sociological, urban or psychological point of view.KEY PROPOSALS FROM THE DEBATEImprove policy for the integration of immigrantpopulationsImplement inclusive urban policies that promote socialintegration and diversity to avoid the risksof communitarianismRethink urban planning to improve immigrant integrationThink about solutions to avoid creating a problemof climate statelessnessCreate a genuine status for climate refugeesConduct more studies on the economic impactof immigrationLegalize and suppressimmigrationImprove organization of the legal migration marketSell visas and finance tougher measures to curb theemployment of illegal immigrantsImplement a paid work permit that can be financedby companiesUndercut the market for smugglers who favour criminalnetworksInvolve companies and social partners in policyconsiderationsEducation: A Two-Speed SystemIAST director Paul Seabright presented a wealth of data showing that the Frencheducation system is unequal, inefficient, costly and lags behind international standards. He then opened the discussion on the subject with several recommendations.KEY PROPOSALS FROM THE DEBATEInvest more in education and researchImprove initial teacher training and lifelong learningEnhance the value of the teaching profession and offermore attractive salariesEncourage parents to become more involved in theirchildren's learningConsider more participatory methods, such as allowingstudents to evaluate lessonsAccept that students make mistakes, and use thesemistakes to improve learning10tse-fr.euDo not exclusively valuecompetition and excellencein the school systemTry to identify the specificskills of each person andencourage them to find their pathImprove support for the educational and vocationalguidance of studentsAccept the evaluation of teachers by their studentsand a tutoring systemTax and public spendingWhich taxes for which France?Frédéric Cherbonnier explained how the French tax system is plagued by manycomplex, inefficient and costly tax niches. In particular, he showed how housingsubsidies increase rents rather than helping the most disadvantaged, and how theresearch

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Entering a new era Marc Fontaine, Airbus, on big data for planes Google visits TSE and exchanges with the students Christian Gollier on global warming and his new book Three evenings of public debate at TSE #19 SUMMER 2019. Editor ' messag Dear friends, In reaction to the “gilet jaune” social upheaval, France’s president Emmanuel Macron launched a Grand Débat .

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