Economic Assessment 2009-12 - Trafford

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Trafford CouncilEconomicAssessmentApril 2009

Trafford’s Economic AssessmentIntroductionThe Current Trafford Economic Development Plan34The Policy Context5National & RegionalSub Regional ContextLocal Context578Trafford Key FactsTrafford’s strategic location in the Greater Manchester City RegionTrafford: PeopleQuality of Life & the Sustainable Community StrategyPopulation Structure and ChangeThe Labour MarketSkills and EmployersEconomic Inclusion: Deprivation, Equalities & BarriersDeprivation in different areasKey Benefit Claimants & WorklessnessTrafford: BusinessEconomy: Drivers of Productivity, Industrial Structure and Economic ForecastsCentre for EnterpriseProductivity: Gross Value AddedLocations and Sizebands of Business in TraffordKey Centres of Business in TraffordTrafford: PlaceEmployment LandTransportThe Public Transport NetworkRoads and CarsHousingEnvironmentWaterThe Visitor Economy & TourismTown CentresAltrinchamSaleStretfordUrmstonKey 840444648525355575962

IntroductionThe purpose of this document is to provide an Economic Assessment of Trafford that willform the evidence base to support the production of a revised Economic Development Planfor the Borough.The new plan will articulate the Borough’s economic development priorities for the next threeyears and begin to shape the vision for the Trafford economy for the next ten to fifteen.This assessment has drawn on a vast array of information sources in relation to the economyand has applied the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model in order to assess the currentsituation.The current Trafford EDP came to an end in March 2009 and it is the responsibility of theTrafford Economic Alliance (TEA) to take stock of what has been achieved so far.TEA also needs to articulate what it will do next in order to continue successfully coordinating and driving forward the economic development agenda in Trafford.What follows is that assessment, which can be used to consult key strategic partners andstakeholders in order to start to shape the Trafford EDP 2009 -2012.The initial task of reviewing the following assessment of Trafford’s economy began with theTrafford Economic Alliance on the 23rd February 2009 and it is this partnership that will leada consultation that will take place over a following 12 week period.The assessment is separated into 6 key areas :1. Introduction & the Current Trafford Economic Development Plan2. The policy/political context National & Regional Sub-regional Local Level3. Trafford: Key Facts4. Trafford’s People5. Trafford’s Businesses6. Trafford, the Place7. Key Questions3

The Current Trafford Economic Development PlanFollowing considerable consultation with key strategic partners and stakeholders, the currentTrafford Economic Development Plan (EDP) was produced by the Trafford Economic Alliancein April 2006. In the first instance the EDP has been used to successfully influence and,more importantly, feed into, national, regional and sub regional strategies and policyframeworks covering competitiveness, skills and employment, urban renaissance andbuilding sustainable communities.The Trafford EDP has had a critical impact on these agendas at both a Regional & SubRegional level. For example the North West Development Agency, which previously had amore direct approach to funding projects at a sub regional level, has been commissioningprogrammes agreed in the Greater Manchester Economic Development Plan. By producing itsown EDP Trafford has been able to position itself and demonstrate how the regional & subregional priorities can be delivered through local actions, detailed in the Trafford EconomicDevelopment Plan.For the future and in response to emerging new frameworks and structures, Trafford willneed to continue to demonstrate how it will go on supporting the development of theGreater Manchester and North West economy.In line with the emerging Regional Strategy and the Sub Regional Strategy, any futureEconomic Development Plan for Trafford, will need to continue to provide strategic directionfor the investment priorities and the delivery plans of a range of key strategic partners suchas North West Development Agency, Government Office for the North West, The GreaterManchester Learning and Skills Council, Jobcentre Plus, Connexions, Business Link, theinward investment agency, MIDAS, the Manchester Knowledge Capital Partnership and otherlocal implementation bodies.Having the right Economic Development Framework in place, over the past three years theTrafford Economic Alliance has been able to rationalise its priorities into three main areasand set up smaller thematic groups to concentrate on working on projects and programmesthat are now beginning to facilitate the delivery of those priorities. The groups and projectsare represented below:PeopleReducingWorklessness &Improving SkillsBusinessEncouragingEnterprise andSupporting SectorDevelopmentPlaceEncouraging InwardInvestment andDelivering CriticalInfrastructureEconomic DevelopmentPlan and Delivery ProjectsBusinessGroup Centre forSectorChampionsMIDASTourism FrameworkPeopleGroupResponsiveEnterpriseBusiness SupportNegotiations andDevelopmentSites andPremisesICPTrafford ParkMaster PlanReleasingPotentialMedia CityCity StrategiesDAFPlaceTransportGroup ICP SkillsMedia CityCity StrategiesDAFTrafford ParkMaster PlanVibrant TownCentresTown Centres Plan4

The Policy ContextNational & RegionalNational Government’s review of Sub National Economic Development and Regeneration(SNR), published in July 2007, fundamentally alters the strategic policy context for EconomicDevelopment and Regeneration across England.The review sets out a number of very specific policy changes in some areas, whilst in othersit has signalled that further work is required.The national policy framework that the SNR sets out reflects the direction in which partnersin the Northwest are already travelling and will enable the Region and the GreaterManchester Sub Region to continue to build on the strong partnership approach that theyalready have in place.Through SNR there has been a fundamental shift in the way the NWDA will undertake itsbusiness. They will increasingly move away from being a delivery organisation to being astrategic one.Despite this, the NWDA will retain important delivery functions around business support,where Government has endorsed regional delivery models to ensure maximum efficiency andeconomies of scale and support Business Support Simplification.The rationale for this has been supported by the Agency’s corporate strategic review andcorporate plan.It is this Plan which has determined the Economic Development and Regeneration StrategicPolicy direction across the North West and not least across the Greater Manchester SubRegion.Its conclusions are that the NWDA will: Have responsibility for drawing up a single regional strategy covering economic,transport, housing, planning, social and environmental objectives bringing togetherthe Regional Economic Strategy, Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional HousingStrategy and including a delivery plan and resources. Be tasked around outcomes (with no output targets) with the focus on a singleoverarching growth objective for the region – GVA per head. Reform its delivery moving more from projects to programmes and delegatingdecisions to local and sub-regional level taking account of Multi Area Agreements(MAA) where they have been agreed. Work within a reformed accountability framework which will see the RegionalAssembly cease in its current role and function by 2010 but will involve LocalAuthority scrutiny and accountability through a Regional Minister.The Corporate Objectives that have been agreed by the NWDA on behalf of our Region, haveprovided the North West’s response to and proposed implementation of the findings of theSNR.5

Since the findings of the SNR, the UK and Northwest economies have fallen into recession.This is affecting the different parts of the region in varying ways. Working with nationalGovernment, the region has put in place immediate actions to enable businesses,communities and individuals to manage the effects of an economic downturn. But it is alsoimportant to position the region for future sustainable recovery and long term resilience andsuccess and to think about the future drivers of the regional economy.We all acknowledge that there will be lessons that we will need to learn from this recession,as well as dealing with the aftermath of it. However, as a region we need to think carefullyabout the nature of future growth. Big questions include the importance of the retail sectorand the high street in the future, if financial services will drive growth again, a possible rapidshift in consumption patterns, and identifying the opportunities arising from the recession.With the current economic conditions in mind, it is more important than ever that we workwith Central Government, and continue to monitor the progress of our regional economiesagainst the GVA/head objective and five outcome focused indicators that have been agreed: GVA/hour workedEmployment rates;Basic, Intermediate and Higher Level Skills ratesR&D as a percentage of GDP;Business Start up rates.In order to respond to this, the NWDA has agreed 11 corporate objectives based on the RESand designed to improve competitiveness and productivity across the region’s Business,People and Places. The NWDA is now consulting on these across regional partners. Theyreflect the totality of NWDA’s responsibilities, and focus on delivery of the specific actions inthe Regional Economic Strategy on which NWDA leads delivery. These are summarisedbelow:Competitive Business1Support the development of internationally competitive sectors2Improve the formation, survival and growth rates of enterprises3Develop higher added value activity through innovation4Realise opportunities from globalisationCompetitive People5Develop leadership and management skills in the current workforce6Develop intermediate and higher level skills in the current workforce7Grow the size of the workforceCompetitive Places8Support the development of major employment sites and premises9Improve the physical conditions for private sector investment10 Ensure the implementation of the Climate Change Action Plan11 Improve the image of the region to businesses and visitors6

Sub Regional ContextPlacing the North West's City Regions at the heart of achieving our economic growthaspirations and delivering the commitments that has been made by the NorthwestDevelopment Agency is critical and non more so than the Manchester City Region.Because of the Manchester City Region’s role, we have produced a City RegionalDevelopment plan (CRDP2) and the GM Sub Regional partnership has set up a governance/partnership structure through which its priorities can be delivered.These priorities are articulated in the Greater Manchester Multi Area Agreement (GM MAA),agreed with national government in June 2008GM MAA Building Blocks:Building Block 1 Building Block 2 Building Block 3 Building Block 4 Building Block 5 Building Block 6 Building Block 7 Building Block 8 -The Greater Manchester Strategic PlanReducing WorklessnessStrengthening our Skills OfferAchieving more for 14-19 year oldsAccelerating Business Expansion to Generate GrowthEnhancing Investment, Knowledge and InnovationEnsuring the city region’s critical infrastructure will sustain oureconomic growthMeeting the housing needs of a competitive Manchester City RegionBuilding Block 1 of the MAA commits to the preparation of a Greater Manchester Strategy.The primary purpose of the Greater Manchester Strategy is to: Provide a clear and shared vision for the future of Greater Manchester;Provide an integrating framework for the work of the Strategic Commissions toensure delivery of that vision;Influence national and regional policy to increase the resources available to GreaterManchester and the flexibility regarding how these resources are allocated;Position Greater Manchester to effectively implement the freedoms and flexibilitiesawarded through statutory City Region status, with a longer-term aim to develop astatutory Greater Manchester Plan.Whilst the preparation of the GMS is underway there is a statutory requirement for Traffordto undertake a robust assessment of its economy and this will inform Trafford’s consultationon the Economic Development Plan for the Borough.7

Local ContextIt is widely acknowledged that Trafford is a key driver in the regional and sub regionaleconomy. The assets and opportunities within the Borough have helped to fuel growth andwithout them any future growth of the City Region will be severely constrained.Ensuring that Trafford is able to deliver its true potential is one of the key priorities identifiedby the Trafford Economic Alliance (TEA) and the Trafford Local Strategic Partnership. Thishas been clearly articulated in the Trafford Community Strategy and the current TraffordEconomic Development Plan. This has allowed TEA to herald Trafford as a regional asset.Over the past eighteen months, we have continued to work to build Trafford’s competitiveadvantage, sought to create the best possible conditions for market investment and exploredthe ways that we can intervene where the market is not currently able to deliver oureconomic aspirations.However, if we are to be successful in managing the current economic conditions as well ascreating the right conditions for sustainable growth we need much better alignment ofeconomic development and skills priorities. Maximising the potential of our future workforcewill facilitate this process more effectively.The National, Regional, Sub – Regional and Local Policy ContextStrategic ContextSub /RegionSub argets /GDPCity RegionDevelopmentPlanNationalEconomic Policyand thern DevelopmentFrameworkExistingUDP ategySub RegionalStrategy/ MAANationalPPS 1SustainableDevelopmentPPS 12LocalSpatialPlanning8

The Strategic Context : Key questionsThe single regional and sub-regional strategies will include transport, housing,planning, social and environmental issues as well as economic development.1. How will this influence and support our local economic developmentpriorities?The NWDA is reforming its delivery moving more from projects to programmes anddelegating decisions to local and sub-regional levels.2. How can we best position Trafford to take advantage of this?9

Trafford Key FactsTrafford’s strategic location in the Greater Manchester City RegionMa p d a ta: C ro w n C o pyrig h tC ro w n C o pyrig h t i s rep ro d uc e dw ith th e p e rm is s io n of the co n trol le r o f H MS Oa nd the Q u e en 's P ri n te r for S c otl a ndG re a te r M a nc he s te rR o c h d aleB o lto nB uryO ld h amW ig anesterS alf o rdManchT raf fo rdW a rring to nT am e s id eS to c kp o rtH ig h P e akM a c c le s f ie ldV ale R o y alC o ng le to n01020mile sOutside Manchester City Centre, Trafford has the best performing economy in thesub region and with the City Centre forms the engine powering the GreaterManchester City region. It has developed the conditions within which effectiveand sustainable growth can be generated and has a highly diversified economybuilt around higher value added activity.Trafford is some 41 square miles and home to 212,200 people living in 92,200 dwellings.These residents make up 9% of total GM population.The borough supports in the region of 123,800 employee jobs and is a net contributor ofJobs with more than 1 job per head of population. Of our 10,900 businesses, 68% of thememploy less than 5 staff.In Trafford, we have the highest proportion of companies per head of population in the cityregion with our 49 firms per 1,000 residents (34 in GM overall) delivering 12.8% of GreaterManchester’s GVA. Trafford contributes 17% of GM’s start-ups, a high proportion of whichare in key growth sectors: the Enterprise capital of the NW.Trafford’s GVA of 5.2bn (5% of NW and 12.8% of GM), compares with 41bn for GreaterManchester and 104bn for the North West . Trafford has 42% above average GVA for GM.We also have high skill levels and above average levels of economic activity. Add to this acluster of iconic sporting and cultural attractions and long established industrial andcommercial areas of significant size and it is evident why Trafford is a high qualityenvironment in which to live, learn, work and relax.10

Trafford: PeopleQuality of Life & the Sustainable Community StrategyThe Trafford Partnership is the Borough's Local Strategic Partnership, a single body whichbrings together more than 100 organisations including local and regional partners fromacross the public, private, voluntary and community sectors. As ambassadors for the localarea, members of the Trafford Partnership are committed to promoting Trafford as anexcellent place to live, learn, work and relax and to start and grow a business. By workingtogether effectively the partnership believe they can be even better.The Partnership is progressing towards achieving the commitments and vision set out in theSustainable Community Strategy, the Vision states: ‘Trafford is thriving, diverse,prosperous and culturally vibrant. A Borough at the heart of the Manchester CityRegion celebrated as the enterprise capital of the North West and home tointernationally renowned cultural and sporting attractions.’By 2021: All Trafford’s people and communities will enjoy the highest quality of life in a safe,clean, attractive, healthy and sustainable environment with excellent education andfirst-class services. Trafford businesses will be provided with all the tools and support to be able tocontinually and successfully compete for skills and investment on an internationalbasis. As a destination, Trafford will consolidate and build upon the reputation of itsrenowned world-class attractions (Manchester United, Lancashire County Cricket Club,Imperial War Museum North and the Trafford Centre) providing a breathtaking mix ofcultural, sporting, heritage and natural attractions together with vibrant town andshopping centres.Trafford is one of the most sought after locations to live in the north of England. It is easy tosee why with its high quality environment, strong and diverse economy, efficient andintegrated transport and an enviable collection of internationally renowned sporting, culturaland leisure attractions. Through excellent education our primary, special, grammar, highschools and college together achieve amongst the very best results in the country. We areproud of Trafford’s track record in the efficient delivery of public services, but want toimprove even further.Trafford has a strong and diverse economy offering a wide range of employment andbusiness opportunities and is home to the oldest and largest industrial park in Europe,Trafford Park.Our four town centres (Altrincham, Sale, Stretford and Urmston) make up the heart of theBorough, adding individual character and providing vibrant places for people to enjoy living,working, shopping and leisure. The majority of people in Trafford feel that their local area isan attractive and harmonious place to live.11

Population Structure and ChangeTrafford has always supported a healthy population density, given its size and geographicalmake up and these levels have remained relatively constant over the last 15 years. Trafford’spopulation reached a low of 209,600 in 2002, rising to 212,200 in 2007.Despite the constancy in terms of numbers, there have been subtle changes in the structureof the population due to a number of influences. Th

Key Benefit Claimants & Worklessness 20 Trafford: Business 23 Economy: Drivers of Productivity, Industrial Structure and Economic Forecasts 23 Centre for Enterprise 26 Productivity: Gross Value Added 27 Locations and Sizebands of Business in Trafford 28 Key Centres of Business in Trafford 31 Trafford: Place 35 Employment Land 36 Transport 37

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