Augmented Reality: On The Cusp Of Reality
Augmented reality:on the cusp of realityDeloitte Global predicts that over a billionsmartphone users will create augmented reality(AR) content at least once in 2018, with threehundred million being monthly creators and tensof millions making and sharing content weekly.We further predict that tens of thousands of appsincorporating AR capability will become availableduring the year, and that by year-end billions ofsmartphone users will have downloaded an appor an app update, or an operating system (OS)update, that incorporates AR content creationcapability.1 We expect billions of people are likelyto view – on smartphones and other screens –AR content created on a phone.While AR is likely to drive device usage, appdownloads and smartphone sales, we expectdiscrete app revenues for AR content to be lessthan 100 million globally in 2018. This shouldnot, however, be interpreted as meaning that ARwill add just 100 million in value. We expect ARcapability will be a key differentiator for somegenres of apps (social networks, messaging,shopping, games) and operating systems, and willbe an important driver of smartphone upgrades.While 2018 is likely to be a significant year for AR,subsequent years will be equally important. Thecore enabling technologies, particularly cameras,sensors and processors, for AR should continueto improve, and the range of applications will growrapidly.2 This is likely to increase the number ofusers making and sharing AR content regularly,and to grow direct AR revenues beyond 1 billionby 2020.At its core, AR is a special effect that enablesdigital images to be superimposed on real ones.The technology has been deployed in variousforms for decades, but it is only recently that ARcontent creation capability has gone mainstream,albeit in a simplistic form.3 Over the past threeyears, AR has become an increasingly popularsmartphone application, often for entertainmentapplications such as face swapping and addingfacial hair and live face filters.Thus far, smartphone AR creations typically havebeen photographs or primitive animations thatare proudly artificial and cartoonish.Starting in 2018, AR content created on asmartphone will look increasingly photorealistic– viewers of AR content may perceive it to be realwhen they view it on a smartphone – and willoften be recorded and shared as video. The morerealistic the digital image, the greater the “wow”factor of the resulting composite.4 We predictthat while almost all AR (more than 95 percent)in 2017 was cartoon style, AR will be over 50percent realistic in 2018.The majority of AR usage in 2018 is likely toinvolve the now-mainstream practice of creatingcontent using smartphone cameras. In themedium term, the technology is likely to be usedincreasingly by enterprises and governmentfor a variety of applications, with instructionmanuals, technical support and public serviceannouncements being possible applications.5Photorealistic AR is being enabled by acombination of software and hardware advances,one of the most significant of which is the launchof dedicated AR frameworks in smartphoneoperating systems. Apple Inc.’s framework,ARKit, was launched with iOS 11 and workswith the iPhone 6s mobile device (launched in2015) and later models. Google’s framework iscalled ARCore and works with premium Androiddevices.6 These frameworks are visual inertialodometry systems (VIOs) with some simple twoplane detection.7The VIO enables the device user’s physicalposition to be tracked in real time by combininginputs from the camera at 30 times a secondwith the inertial measurement unit (IMU, whichcombines the accelerometer and gyroscope),8which takes readings at 1,000 times a second.Plane detection enables flat surfaces such as afloor or table to be identified, enabling an objectto be placed where the viewer would expect it.1.Augmented reality capabilityis likely to be included asstandard across multiple socialnetwork platforms, causing ARfunctionality to be downloadedby default.2.For examples of applicationsof AR, see Made with ARKit,Madewitharkit.com, as accessedon 2 November 2017: http://www.madewitharkit.com/.3.Until five years ago, the AR thatmost people have experiencedwas in TV programs in the form ofgraphics created by professionaldesigners. This would include,for example, charts used in newsprograms or player-tracking toolsused by sports commentators.4.For more information on thephotorealism now availablewith AR, see Reality, realisticallyaugmented, Max-PlanckGesellschaft, 24 February -photorealistic.5.Public service announcementscould include augmented realityguides on sugar, salt and fatcontent in packaged foods. Userscould scan a bar code and thenhave a visual representation ofthe sugar, salt and fat contentin the food. Sugar could, forexample, be represented visuallyvia the equivalent number ofsugar lumps in a soft drink.6.For more information on how thisworks, see ARCore: AugmentedReality at Android scale, Google,29 August 2017: augmented-realityandroid-scale/; IntroducingARKit, Apple Inc., as accessedon 02 November 2017: https://developer.apple.com/arkit/.iPhone and ARKit are trademarksof Apple Inc., registered in the USand other countries. Deloitte’sTMT Predictions report is anindependent publication and hasnot been authorized, supportedor otherwise approved by AppleInc.
Augmented reality: on the cusp of realityBy the end of 2018, we expect about 800 millionsmartphones to have both an OS with dedicatedAR support and sufficiently powerful hardware– central processing units (CPUs), graphicsprocessing units (GPUs), digital signal processors(DSPs) and neural chips – to power them. CreatingAR content requires significant computing power.The more powerful and energy-efficient theprocessors and the GPUs inside the smartphone,the smoother the resulting videos and the lowerthe battery drain. Over time, as the hardware getsmore power-efficient, AR content creation willnot be limited to only the latest, most powerfuldevices, although the latter are likely to continueto offer the best user experience and results.The most significant impact of the availability ofAR frameworks is on content creation. DedicatedAR support within a standard OS lowers the costof developing AR apps. It removes the need, forexample, for third-party tools to create the AReffect. It means that a developer’s resourcescan be focused on creating compelling content,and that more junior staff can work on thetechnical implementations. Furthermore,smaller developer teams, and even individuals,can develop apps with AR functionality. Lowerbarriers to entry should increase the supply ofapps that feature AR throughout 2018.The introduction of these frameworks has movedin tandem with major advances in some of thesmartphone’s hardware components.Recent advances in IMU technology enablethe device to sense, with a greater degree ofprecision, how much it has moved relative towhere a camera is being pointed. This way, it ispossible to extract stereoscopic 3-D informationusing just one camera on the phone, lowering thebill of materials for the device.If the user is moving his or her hand togetherwith the smartphone, the camera takes 30 ormore photos per second and calculates how farapart they are based on an accurate estimatefrom an IMU that contains an accelerometerand the gyroscope. Accurate measurement hasrequired making certain hardware changes,particularly clock synchronization of all thesensors involved. The camera and IMU can worktogether to estimate precisely the 3-D space onlywhen the precise time each measurement wastaken is known.Semiconductor manufacturers are incorporatingthese technologies into their latest chips; oldersmartphones lack the hardware required tosupport accurate AR frameworks.9But the hardware improvements are only part ofthe story; algorithms are also critical to creatingand displaying compelling AR content. Betteralgorithms assist in multiple ways.One of the most important developments isgreater precision when identifying edges ofsurfaces. Identifying surfaces – of a table, floor,pavement or other flat surface where an objectmight rest – helps position the digital imageautomatically and means that the object doesnot appear (unconvincingly) to be hovering inmidair. Historically, positioning AR content waseffected by placing printed trackers resemblinglarge bar codes on the floor; this required theuser to have access to a printer, reducing theaddressable market. Now AR delivers the samesort of experience without requiring any physicalprinted image-based trackers, vastly increasingthe base of people willing to try out AR.Superior algorithms also enable shadows inscenes lit by the sun or artificial light, againmaking the illusion look more real. AnimatedAR characters can “react” to the changes inenvironment (such as a light being switchedoff), further creating the illusion that the digitalobjects are real.In recent years, with custom AR technologies,feature tracking has been applied within facetracking and face-filter apps, allowing usersto augment faces, both comically and alsopractically (for example, showing how a facewould look with a particular hue of lipstickapplied). In 2018, software enhancements alsowill offer improved feature detection, goingbeyond the face and enabling detection of andinteraction with a wider range of objects, frombicycles to buildings. These enhancementsshould enable AR to be used in a wider rangeof applications, such as self-service technicalsupport. For example, when assembling flat-packfurniture, AR could be used to stick a virtualarrow next to the part of a shelf where a boltneeds to be inserted.Smartphones that include depth sensors – ofwhich over 100 million may be in the marketby the end of 2018 – will enable devices towork with depth information, providing moreaccurate augmentation and scanning of 3-Dobjects using the front-facing camera. Infrared(IR) sensors are also needed for augmentedreality to work in low-light environments. Thissort of depth information will further enhanceaugmented reality capabilities once IR sensorsare incorporated on both sides of smartphones.027.This essay is a very usefulexplanation of the underlyingtechnologies that enable currentAR systems in smartphones;see Why is ARKit better than thealternatives? Medium, 1 August2017: tbetter-than-the-alternativesaf8871889d6a.8.The camera tracks where youare relative to a point in the realworld. The IMU measures theuser’s movement. A Kalman filterdetermines which of the inputs(the camera or the IMU) is likelyto be giving the more accuratereading.9.As of October 2017, therewas a base of a few hundredmillion smartphones that haddedicated support for AR. Applesmartphones with an A9, A10 orA11 processor are compatiblewith ARKit. Samsung S8 andNote 8 are compatible withARCore. For more information,see Introducing ARKit, AppleInc., as accessed on 2 November2017: https://developer.apple.com/arkit/; Google wants tobring augmented reality to yoursmartphone with ARCore, DigitalTrends, 18 October 2017: -augmentedreality/.10. Snapchat has launched anaugmented reality art platformthat enables artwork to be placedwithin photos. The first artist tocollaborate with this initiative wasJeff Koons. For more information,see Artwork All Around You,Snapchat, as accessed on 2November 2017: https://art.snapchat.com/.11. A Games of Thrones ARpromotion was made available viaFacebook. This was delivered byan app update. Game of Thronesrolls out AR camera effect onFacebook, The Drum, 26 August2017: -rolls-out-ar-cameraeffect-facebook; see Harnessthe power of Augmented Realitywith camera effects platform,Facebook, 18 April 2017: 18/IntroducingCamera-Effects-Platform/;Introducing AR studio, Facebook,as accessed on 2 November2017: ects/ar-studio/.
Augmented reality: on the cusp of realityAs stated earlier, AR is not new to 2018; what differsis quality, especially with regard to photorealism.Prior to 2018, AR was more rudimentary, as thatwas all the technology permitted. There have alsobeen practical applications, such as positioningitems of furniture in a room to see how they mightlook in a prospective customer’s home, but thebulk of regular usage of AR has been for selfieswith face filters.As of 2018, AR should enable users to appearto be singing along with their favorite singer,interacting with a tiger, juggling balls with a starfootballer, or indeed being in the same spaceas any other person, animal or object they maywant to incorporate. This is behavior akin tohaving one’s photo taken with a waxwork modelor cardboard cutout of a celebrity, but the ARartifact should look far more convincing – and willalso likely move.In most cases, AR will be used to create shortvideos designed for sharing. The more convincingthe simulation, the more fervent is likely to be thereaction from those receiving the content andthus the more rewarding the activity.The use of AR in photography will probably bethe most commonplace application of AR video,simply because the camera app is one of the mostused smartphone features. There will be otherapplications, both useful and frivolous, that featureAR, but they are unlikely to be used as frequently.One major genre is likely to be games, which isthe largest category of apps available. Gamesdevelopers are likely to use AR as a differentiatorthat could encourage new downloads. AR is alsolikely to be integrated into existing popular gameapps and distributed when the app is updated ona user’s device.Over the course of 2018, we expect a growingnumber of games to incorporate an AR element,but we expect few AR-only games. One reasonfor this is that the most advanced AR platformswork only where lighting is good and the devicecan readily recognize a surface on which toplace content. AR objects can be hard to placein rooms with variable lighting or where thereare no obvious surfaces; carpet, too, is difficult.AR games cannot be played in the dark andmay not work well for users in planes, trains orautomobiles, again due to the lack of a surfaceonto which they can project. This is problematic,as a large part of mobile games’ appeal is theability to play anytime and anywhere.Furthermore, as AR requires the camera to beoperational, battery usage is high. Pokémon Gowas the first mainstream smartphone game tofeature AR, but it also offered the option to turnthe camera off to save battery life. Many regularplayers rapidly turned off AR when capturingPokémon, to conserve battery and extendplaying time.A further constraint on the use of AR in games isuser fatigue, particularly if AR requires the userto hold the device at an uncomfortable angle.Smartphones are often held nearly horizontal;while one is using a camera, the device oftenis nearly vertical, and maintaining this positionmay tire out users.This variation in angle may seem trivial, butmainstream users tend to opt for comfort andabandon games that cause physical fatigue.Social networks are likely to compete on thestrength of their AR functionality, and users’feeds are likely to receive increasing numbersof short videos that incorporate AR animations.Some celebrities may start selling packs of 3-Danimated content that can be integrated intotheir fans’ AR videos, similar to the emergenceof celebrity-specific emojis and mobile games.Social networks are likely to offer increasinglysophisticated AR effects and bespoke images10from their apps.11During 2018, we also expect an abundance ofhome decoration apps to launch (and relaunch,taking advantage of better technology), enablingprospective customers to visualize how a piece offurniture would look in their homes. This type ofapplication has been developing for many years.However, in most instances, such AR apps arelikely to complement rather than replace a visitto the showroom. These apps enable someoneto see – with varying degrees of accuracy– how asofa with a certain fabric might look in their livingroom, and even to walk around it. In 2018, theseapps should have more accurate scaling, and avisual of the couch in different lighting conditionsmay be possible. But such an app is unable toindicate how firm or springy the couch is or thequality of its construction, and for that reason, anapp is likely to remain just one of many inputs inthe final purchase decision.03
Augmented reality: on the cusp of realityAlso in the home, AR has been suggested as areplacement for the tape measure. The latestAR technology enables the most accuratemeasurement ever – but it still retains a marginof error of a few percentage points, which wouldnot be tolerable in many cases. Inaccuratemeasurement of a doorframe by even a fewmillimeters could mean the couch that the ARapp had helped a user visualize would not fitthrough a doorway.This prediction has focused predominantly on ARusage via smartphone, as this is how we expectmost of AR’s value to be generated in 2018. Everypremium smartphone sold in 2018 should becapable of video AR at no additional cost to theconsumer, whereas dedicated AR headsets maycost hundreds or even thousands of dollars, and itmight be two to three years before they’re availablein the consumer market at accessible pricing.Further, based on limited uptake of dedicatedvirtual reality headsets, it is less clear thatmainstream consumers will want to weardedicated AR headsets.AR on a smartphone will notbe as impressive as AR witha head-mounted display,but it will certainly be moreaccessible.The bottom line2018 is likely to be a year of progress and experimentation for AR. The quantity of premiumAR devices will swell. There will be tens of thousands of AR apps. The photo app onsmartphones may soon start offering an array of people or objects that can be inserted into ashot. App stores specific to AR content may be launched, similar to the instant messaging (IM)stores now available. But it won’t be plain sailing. Inevitably, mistakes will be made.There may be disdain in some quarters for the apparent triviality of AR apps, but this fails totake into account the history of content created for consumers over the past few decades.And 2018 is far from the endpoint for AR; many further years of evolution are likely to enchantusers and enhance their creations. Over the medium term, AR will merge into camera-basedapps; we will struggle to recall a time when AR was a mere novelty. And at some point in thefuture, it may become increasingly hard to tell reality from AR-enabled fiction.This year, one of the tasks for developers will be to determine when AR adds to anexperience and when it is superfluous. For example, with navigation apps, AR could be usedto superimpose an arrow on a live image of a street, guiding the user more precisely thanwould be possible with a 2-D map. Using AR throughout the journey, however, might besuperfluous, and this functionality should arguably be deployed only in the final few metersof the journey or even to help identify a friend within a crowd.Enterprises should experiment enthusiastically but pragmatically with possibleapplications. Aside from marketing opportunities (such as the ability to place anAR-generated animated company logo anywhere or to superimpose a branded mask on auser’s face), there are also possibilities for AR to assist with sales, technical guidance andaftermarket support. Enterprises should be careful, however, not to start off with AR as ananswer and then look for solutions it could address.As mentioned earlier, we would expect tens of thousands of apps that include an ARelement to be available by the end of 2018. As with most content, a minority of contentdrives the majority of usage. Based on the history of most apps, we would expect themajority to be abandoned within a month and a minority to remain in frequent use.04
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Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality Deloitte Global predicts that over a billion smartphone users will create augmented reality (AR) content at least once in 2018, with three hundred million being monthly creator
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