ViEt NAM VIET NAM MyAnMAR - Asian Development Bank

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atest energysector assessment,strategy,and roadhydropowermap for VietandNamof thegas.SoutheastAsiaMyanmarhas abundantenergy try’sDivisionof the AsianDevelopmentBank (ADB)energysectormajordevelopmentenergy sectorhas beenunderdevelopeddue to highlightsglobal isolationandlack performance,of financial mentplansand strategy,previoussupportfrompreparedADB andbyotherdevelopmentThis is the firstenergy sectorassessment,strategy,and roadmap forMyanmarthe Southeastpartners,and DivisionADB’s futurestrategy in VietNam’senergysector. Theassessment,strategy, and roadAsia Energyof thesupportAsian DevelopmentBank(ADB).It highlightsenergysector lopmentadd on to tNam.Thereport2016–2020 country partnership strategy for Viet Nam. The reportalsoalsoprovidesprovidesdevelopmentpartner support,and futureADB investmentsupport strategy.This documentis linkedto and feeds intoenergysector backgroundinformationfor ADBand technicalassistanceoperations.ADB’s country partnership strategy for Myanmar and will be updated as strategic developments and programchanges are needed.About the Asian Development DB’svisionis an DevelopmentAsiaand Pacificregion free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countriesreduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it metothe majorityofandtheworld’spoor. tetheregion’smanysuccesses,itremainsgrowth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration.ithomeremainsthe ofmajorityof thepoor.world’spoor.ADB is committedto povertyreducingthroughpovertyinclusivethrough economicinclusiveto ahomelargetosharethe world’sADBis committedto ysustainablegrowth,andregionalintegration.Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helpingits developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, instrumentsforfor helpingtechnicalassistance.helpingits developingmembercountriesare dialogue,policy dialogue,loans, investments,equity investments,guarantees,grants,its developingmembercountriesare policyloans, equityguarantees,grants, VIETNAMMyanmarEnergy SectorAssessment,EnErgySEctorENERGYSECTORStrategy, and RoadMapASSESSmEnt,StrAtEgy,ASSESSMENT,STRATEGY,And ROADroAd MAPmApANDISBN 978-929257312-6Asian Development BankAsiAn Development BAnk6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila, Philippines1550 Metro Manila, Philippineswww.adb.orgwww.adb.orgASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

MyanmarEnergy Sector Assessment,Strategy, and Road MapDecember 2016ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2016 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel 63 2 632 4444; Fax 63 2 636 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved. Published in 2016.Printed in the Philippines.ISBN 978-92-9257-685-1 (Print), 978-92-9257-686-8 (e-ISBN)Publication Stock No. RPT168570Cataloging-In-Publication DataAsian Development Bank.Myanmar: Energy sector assessment, strategy, and road map.Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2016.1. Energy Sector.2. Myanmar.I. Asian Development Bank.The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country”in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 o/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Attribution—You should always acknowledge ADB as the source using the following format:[Author]. [Year of publication]. [Title of the work in italics]. [City of publication]: [Publisher]. ADB. [URL or DOI][license].Translations—Any translations you create should carry the following disclaimer:Originally published by ADB in English under the title [title in italics]. ADB. [URL or DOI] [license]. The qualityof the translation and its coherence with the original text is the sole responsibility of the translator. The English originalof this work is the only official version.Adaptations—Any adaptations you create should carry the following disclaimer:This is an adaptation of an original work titled [title in italics]. ADB. [URL or DOI][license]. The views expressedhere are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governorsor the governments they represent. ADB does not endorse this work or guarantee the accuracy of the data includedin this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo.Notes:In this report, “ ” refers to US dollars unless otherwise stated.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China.Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda

ContentsFigures and Tables ivCurrency Equivalents vWeights and Measures vAbbreviations viI.Sector Assessment: Context and Strategic Issues 1A. Introduction 1B. Overall Sector Context 11. Overview 12. Oil and Gas Subsector 43. Coal Subsector 54. Renewable Energy 65. Power Subsector 76. Energy Efficiency 107. Climate Change 11C. Core Sector Issues, Causes, and Effects II.11Strategy 14A. Government Sector Strategy, Policy, and Plans 14B. ADB’s Sector Support Program and Experience 15C. Other Development Partner Support 15D. ADB’s Sector Strategy 16III. Plans and Supporting Analysis 18A. Sector Road Map and Results Framework 18B. Sector Problem Analysis 19C. Sector Issues, Government Actions, and ADB Support 20D. Government Actions, Development Partner Support, and Key Lessons 21E. Data Tables 22iii

Figures and TablesFigures1 Total Final Energy Consumption 2 Total Primary Energy Production 3 Total Primary Energy Supply 4 Electricity Purchase and Retail Tariff in Myanmar 5 Organization of the Ministry of Electricity and Energy 6 Problem Tree for Energy Sector Tables1Status of Key Operating Offshore Gas Fields in Myanmar 2ADB’s Capacity Development and Policy and Advisory TA Projects to Myanmar 3Sector Results Framework (Energy Sector, 2014–2020) 4 Links between Sector Issues, Government Plan, Gaps, and ADB SummaryAssessment of Plan Feasibility 5 Summary of Key Issues, Government Actions, Development Partner Supportand Lessons Learned iv23391019415182021

Weights and -hourMMBtumillion British thermal unitMMCFDmillion cubic feet per daymtoemillion ton of oil equivalentMWmegawattCurrency Equivalents(as of 31 October 2016)Currency unit Myanmar kyat (MK)MK1.00 0.00077551 1.00 MK1,289.47DirectorsA. Jeffries, Energy Division, Southeast Asia Department (SERD)W. Wicklein, Myanmar Resident Mission, SERDTeam leaders J. Liston, Principal Energy Specialist, Energy Division, SERDH. Lee, Energy Economist, SERDTeam members D. T. Bui, Senior Energy Economist, SERDC. Jung, Energy Specialist, SERDPeer reviewerR. Kausar, Principal Portfolio Management Specialist, SERDv

AbbreviationsviADBAsian Development BankEPGEelectricity power generation enterpriseFYfiscal yearIPPindependent power producerJICAJapan International Cooperation AgencyMOEEMinistry of Electricity and EnergyMOGEMyanmar Oil and Gas EnterpriseMOUmemorandum of understandingNEPNational Electrification PlanPRCPeople’s Republic of ChinaTAtechnical assistanceTPEStotal primary energy supply

I S ector Assessment: Contextand Strategic IssuesA.IntroductionThis sector assessment, strategy, and road map documents the Asian Development Bank’s(ADB) current assessment and strategic investment priorities of the Government of Myanmar in theenergy sector. It highlights sector performance, major development constraints, government plansand strategy, past ADB support and experience, other development partner support, and future ADBsupport strategy. The assessment, strategy, and road map is linked to and feeds into ADB’s countrypartnership strategy for Myanmar. It will be updated as strategic developments and program changesare needed. It will also help to provide sector background information for investment and technicalassistance (TA) operations.1.B. Overall Sector Context1. OverviewOverall context. Myanmar has been reconnected with the world economy since its majorreforms in 2011. As per the 2014 census, its population is 51.48 million. Gross domestic productgrowth increased from 5.6% in fiscal year (FY) 2011 to an average of over 8% from FY2013 to FY2015,reflecting strong expansion in construction, manufacturing, and services. Growth is expected to furtheraccelerate to 8.3% in FY2015 and remain close to this pace in FY2016. This optimistic projectionis based on the country’s abundant natural resources; strategic location at the crossroads of Asia;and a large, youthful population. To realize it, however, the country needs to successfully implementextensive reforms and integrated policies, build basic infrastructure, and tackle many bottlenecks.1The development of energy sector is key to the country’s future.2.Energy for socioeconomic growth and development. Myanmar has abundant energyresources, particularly hydropower and natural gas. The hydropower potential is estimated to bemore than 100,000 megawatts (MW) in terms of installed capacity. Natural gas is a major exportresource, which generated 2.1 billion export revenue in the first half of FY2014. Additional revenueof about 2.7 billion per year is likely from new gas fields. Strategically located between Bangladesh,India, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Thailand, Myanmarhas the advantage of exporting energy resources to these countries to fulfill their high energy needsdue to rapid economic growth. Overall, the energy sector accounted for 55% of export earnings and86% of foreign direct investment in 2013. Energy is also a necessity for socioeconomic developmentto meet basic human needs and support industrial development.3.However, the country’s energy sector has been underdeveloped due to a lack of financial andtechnical capacity and global isolation. Furthermore, inadequate power supply has emerged as one of the4.1ADB. Myanmar Unlocking The Potential. Country Diagnostic Study. 2014. Manila.1

Myanmar: Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Mapmost serious infrastructure constraints for the country’s sustainable economic growth. For example, only34% of the total population had access to electricity in 2014. In terms of per capita electricity consumption,Myanmar is ranked one of the lowest countries in the world, with 110 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per capita in2011, which is much lower than the world average per capita of 3,000 kWh and even lower than a leastdeveloped country average per capita of 174 kWh. In terms of energy intensity, Myanmar was ranked 191in 2011, making it one of the least energy consuming countries in the world.2 Traditional biomass (mainlyfirewood and agricultural wastes) is widely used by most rural people, particularly for cooking and lighting,and access to conventional energy resources is very limited, which impacts the welfare of these people.After the country’s opening in 2011, the demand for energy from industry, commerce, and residentialsectors is on the rise, placing pressure on the limited energy infrastructure.Compared to its population and economy, the availability and accessibility of modern energyresources are significantly low and hence a bottleneck to improve the living standards and support industrialactivities. To tackle such constraints, the government shifted its policy toward increasing domestic energysupply and improving policy frameworks to encourage greater investment in the energy sector. This opensthe opportunities for extensive international assistance including public–private partnerships.5.6.Final energy consumption. Most people use traditional biomass (mainly firewood andagricultural wastes), particularly for cooking and lighting, and this, for example, accounted for 77%of total energy consumption in 2012. Energy consumption grew slowly at an annual average of2.3% during 2000–2012. The residential sector is the largest consumer of energy, with 75% of totalconsumption in 2012, mainly in the form of biomass (fuelwood and charcoal), followed by theindustry sector (9%), transport sector (8%), and other sectors (6%). The commerce and agriculturesectors make up the remaining 2%. During the period 2000–2012, the commerce sector showed thehighest annual energy consumption growth with 5.8%, followed by the residential sector with 1.4%and industry sector with 1.2%. The transport sector, however, had a negative annual average growth(–3.0%) for the same period. Figure 1 shows the historical trends of total final energy consumption.Figure 1: Total Final Energy 2010–220 01111–220 CommercialResidentialAgricultureOthersktoe kiloton of oil equivalent.Source: Myanmar Energy Master Plan (Final Report ADB TA No. 8356-MYA). The original data and statistics werecollected in physical units from the Ministry of Electricity and Energy and were converted to energy units based onestimates of Myanmar specific calorific values using the methodology documented in the final report chapter B, whichmay not be identically consistent with alternative sources of energy statistics that are based on standardized calorific valueassumptions.2International Energy Statistics by US Energy Information Administration.

Sector Assessment: Context and Strategic Issues7.Primary energy production. The total primary energy production was 22.5 million tons ofoil equivalent (mtoe) in 2013. Biomass makes up about 46%, followed by gas (43%) and others (11%)consisting of hydropower, oil, and coal. As Figure 2 shows, gas production experienced a rapid growthbetween 2000 and 2007, with an overall increase of 2.4 times in volume. Biomass production hasgrew by 26% over the period from 2000 to 2013. Hydropower production, although a relatively minorcomponent, had steady growth with a more than fourfold increase during the same period. Coalproduction experienced a peak in 2006 but subsequently declined.Figure 2: Total Primary Energy 05–20020606–20200707–20200808–220 00909–20102010–20112011–220 01212–2013-Crude oilNatural gasCoal and IigniteHydropowerBiomassktoe kiloton of oil equivalentSource: Myanmar Energy Master Plan (Final Report ADB TA No. 8356-MYA). The original data and statistics werecollected in physical units from the Ministry of Electricity and Energy and were converted to energy units based onestimates of Myanmar specific calorific values using the methodology documented in the final report chapter B, whichmay not be identically consistent with alternative sources of energy statistics that are based on standardized calorific valueassumptions.Figure 3: Total Primary Energy ,000Crude 0 00909–20102010–220 01111–220 01212–2013-Natural gasCoal and IigniteHydropowerBiomassktoe kiloton of oil equivalent.Source: Myanmar Energy Master Plan (Final Report ADB TA No. 8356-MYA). The original data and statistics werecollected in physical units from the Ministry of Electricity and Energy and were converted to energy units based onestimates of Myanmar specific calorific values using the methodology documented in the final report chapter B, whichmay not be identically consistent with alternative sources of energy statistics that are based on standardized calorific valueassumptions.3

4Myanmar: Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road MapPrimary energy supply. Myanmar exports a large fraction of the total primary energyproduced and, therefore, the total primary energy supply (TPES) is lower than total primary energyproduction. Most of the produced gas is intended for export, which accounted for 78.8% in 2012,while the remaining 21.2% is utilized for domestic use. The largest part of domestically utilized gas isfor power generation, accounting for 65% of the domestically allocated gas. Figure 3 shows the TPESfor the period 2000–2013.8.In 2000, the country’s TPES was about 11.8 mtoe. About two-thirds (7.8 mtoe) of energysupply was from biomass, followed by 16.8% (2.0 mtoe) from oil, and 10.2% (1.2 mtoe) from gas. In2001, hydropower and coal accounted only for a small share (6.2% from hydropower and 0.7% fromcoal). However, these proportions are changing: in 2015, the TPES increased to 20.1 mtoe by 35%compared with that in 2000, amounting at about 18.0 mtoe. In 2015, the biomass share droppedto 50.0% (10.0 mtoe), followed by 16.8% (3.4 mtoe) for hydro and 12.0% (2.4 mtoe) for gas. Coalaccounted for 1.65% (0.33 mtoe). The influence of natural gas exports increased significantly in thelatter part of the period.9.2. Oil and Gas SubsectorOil production. Myanmar was one of the earlier countries to have a national oil and gasindustry in the Southeast Asia region. No new oil reservoirs were discovered in the last 20 years,and the production caliber per well is limited because of the natural depletion of reservoirs. Themonthly oil production fell from about 1 million barrels in 1984 to about 0.2 million barrels in 2014.Furthermore, improvements from petroleum recovery contracts in some producing fields are notsignificant, resulting in a decrease in crude oil s

The latest energy sector assessment, strategy, and road map for Viet Nam of the Southeast Asia Energy . 2 Total Primary Energy Production 3 3 Total Primary Energy Supply 3 4 Electricity Purchase and Retail Tariff in Myanmar 9 5 Organization of the Ministry of Electricity and Energy 10 . The hydropower potential is estimated to be , .

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