Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model Petroleum Refining .
Global Hydrocarbon Supply ModelPetroleum Refining Component Design ReportOctober 2014Prepared forEnergy Information Administration at the U.S. Department of EnergyPrepared byVincent DiVita
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United StatesGovernment. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of theiremployees or contractors, make any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liabilityor responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus,product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately-ownedrights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacture, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof.The views and opinions of the author expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect thoseof the Unites States Government or any agency thereof.
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design ReportExecutive SummaryThe Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis (PNGBA) of the EIA has been tasked todevelop a dynamic representation (referred to here as Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model, GHySMo) ofthe global production, processing, transportation, distribution, and storage of natural gas and liquid fuels.The EIA suggests breaking GHySMo into sub-modules for 1) upstream oil and gas production operations;2) logistics for transportation of primarily natural gas, crude oil, and petroleum products; and 3)transformational processes such as in refineries. The focus of this Component Design Report (CDR) is onRefining, which represents the conversion of crude oil into petroleum products.The primary objective of the Petroleum Refining Component sub-module is to provide a reasonablerepresentation of the world refining industry. The CDR discusses critical “Blocks” associated with theRefining model. Emphasis is placed on balancing model sophistication between the interactions of theseBlocks with stakeholder objectives.The Refining CDR will be viewed with consideration for the other sub-models, and the recommendationsin this CDR will ultimately be recalibrated with the other sub-models for consistency in approach, design,and operations.Key recommendations include the following: The refining model platform should be acquired commercially.Aggregating the World into approximately 30 regions and 15 crudes is reasonable.Defining clean products as either high or low quality for each unique region will facilitatemodeling, while incorporating primary and secondary specifications.Crude production can be aggregated into Terminal Blocks, for downstream distribution.Regional Terminals will balance supply and demand every refining streamProduct movements (imports and exports) are transported to and from terminals.Consideration should be given to developing a more inclusive Economics, Refining, andLogistics block which would rely on exogenous inputs from technical Refining LP results.“Robust” process technology is required for the refining process units to achieve statedobjectives, including sulfur, weight, energy, volume, and emissions balances.Maintaining a balance of reasonableness with sophistication will form the foundation for a wordclass global refining model.Page 1
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design ReportTABLE OF CONTENTS12345678910Page 2Introduction. 5Methodology Overview . 6Model Objective . 6Flexibility. 6Robustness . 7Usability . 7Switches . 7Rationale and Reasoning . 8Continuous Balance of Objectives with Technology. 8Other . 8Model Structure . 9Refining Block . 11Crude & Vacuum . 13Coking . 16Visbreaking . 18FCC. 18Reforming . 25Hydrotreating . 27Hydrocracking . 32SDA . 34Aromatics (BTX, Hydrodealkylation, Cyclohexane, Cumene) . 34Fixed Yield Models . 35Gas & LPG Recovery . 36Utilities . 36Energy Balance . 37CO2, GHG, Utilities . 39Other Refining Block Inputs . 41Functional Design Specifications . 42Product Block . 47Crude Block . 59Logistics Block . 68Biofuels, Downstream Gas, and LPG . 74Logistics External to the Refinery Block . 75Linking the Blocks (Logistics, Refining, Economics) . 76Regional Blocks (Country Aggregation) . 81Region Definitions . 87Pooling vs. Table Structure . 94Input / Output / Data Requirements & Knowledge Management . 98Passing, Prices, Quantities, and Other Data between Submodules . 99Knowledge Management (KM) System Design . 101Investments . 104
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Report111213Uncertainty and Limitations . 106Conclusions and Recommendations . 109References. 113LIST OF FIGURES12345678910111213141516171819202122Page 3Block Methodology . 9Refining Block . 11Product Block . 47Gasoline Production and Movements . 52Product Movements: Single Location. 53Product Movements: Multi-Locations . 54Crude Block . 59Three Crude Feeds to Downstream Pools . 60Aggregate Crude Feed . 61Two Tower Methodology . 62Logistics Block . 68Crude Terminal Methodology. 69Crude Purchase at Country Level . 70Crude Purchase at Field Location . 70Country Refining and Terminal Overview . 72Logistics Model Inside & Outside of Refinery Block . 76WTI Price Curve . 77Economics Model . 80Cumulative Crude Production. 85Pooling . 94Non-Pooled Flows . 95Block Method . 110
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design ReportLIST OF 7Page 4Simple Cuts . 13Advanced Cuts . 14Two Mode DHT no Bypass . 30Two Mode DHT with Bypass . 30Example Hydrocracking Matrix . 33Refining Model Qualities. 43Crude Swing Cut Mapping . 45Crude Cut Mapping to Units . 46Average Gasoline Grade . 48High, Low, Average Gasoline . 49High, Low, Average Gasoline Codes . 50High, Low, Average Diesel . 50Product Vectors. 56Gasoline Products and Specifications . 57Distillate Products and Specifications . 57Other Products and Specifications . 58API and Vacuum Resid Content . 64Crude Production Volume and Blending . 65Tiered Purchase Strategy for WTI Purchases . 77Crude Production and Crude Imports . 84Crude Consumption and Crude Exports . 86CDU Capacity and Petroleum Consumption . 87Base Level Country Aggregation. 88Base Level plus OPEC Locations . 89Base plus OPEC plus Large Countries . 90Aggregating Countries . 91Aggregate Country Node Definitions . 91
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Report1. IntroductionThe Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis (PNGBA) of the EIA has beentasked to develop a dynamic representation (referred to here as Global Hydrocarbon SupplyModel, GHySMo ) of the global production, processing, transportation, distribution, and storageof natural gas and liquid fuels. The ultimate purpose of this project is to improve the EIA’scapability to represent international markets for liquids and natural gas under a variety ofassumptions. The primary function of the model will be to replace the existing upstream andmidstream models of petroleum and natural gas within the World Energy Projection System Plus(WEPS ). GHySMo or its results will allow for a consistent international representation of thegas and liquids markets to be incorporated within the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System(NEMS).A secondary function of GHySMo is to operate in a standalone fashion to enable the targeted useof greater levels of detail to support certain topical analyses that may not critically depend ondynamic feedback from outside the liquids and gas markets. It is envisioned that a standaloneGHySMo would be used to perform such analyses as deep-dive analyses of specific countries orWorld regions.The EIA would like GHySMo to be broken into sub-modules to facilitate testing, maintenance,and model administration. As a starting point, the EIA suggests sub-modules for 1) upstream oiland gas production operations, including natural gas processing; 2) logistics for transportation ofprimarily natural gas, crude oil, and petroleum products; and 3) transformational processes suchas in refineries.The downstream representation will primarily include representations of petroleum refineryprocessing and the transportation of crude oil from production regions to refinery regions, andthe transport of petroleum products from refinery regions to demand regions. GHySMo willinclude a mechanism for balancing supply and demand for each of the liquid products.The focus of this CDR is on Refining, which represents the conversion of crude oil intopetroleum products. The Refining process includes numerous processing steps to achieve thistransformation, which will be discussed, but a more comprehensive approach is required. TheRefining process requires crude input information including crude types and source of origin.The Refining process also produces products for consumption. The crude input, refineryprocessing, and product output must be balanced for all the regions of the World defined in themodel. For all regions, every feed and product stream will balance on production, imports,consumption, and exports.Page 5
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Report2. Methodology OverviewModel ObjectiveThe primary objective of the Petroleum Refining Component sub-module is to provide areasonable representation of the World refining industry. However, the definition of“reasonable” is wide, depending on an individual stakeholder’s needs. Underneath the primaryobjective are layers of secondary objectives such as appropriate crude strategies, refiningrepresentations, product accounting, and country aggregating methods to name a fewThis CDR will examine these secondary objectives, and make recommendations on their designstrategies in order to fulfill the primary objective of developing a reasonable representation of theWorld refining industry.The CDR recommendations will maintain the following fundamental design principles:FlexibilityThe model should be capable of converting to either higher or lower fidelity country analysis, aswell as adding supplementary levels of technology, products, specifications, or crude types. Aflexible model will require some degree of programming and analytical effort, but not a major“overhaul” of code.The model will be developed with an “Evergreen” framework, since stagnant models quicklybecome undesirable and obsolete. As the hydrocarbon World changes (e.g., the technologies,specifications, geopolitics), so should the model. In the United States, the refinery models havehad significant structural upgrades to better represent the changing refining requirements, suchas: Reformulated Gasoline (Simple and Complex Model Phase 1 & 2),MSAT2,MTBE Ban,Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS),Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel (ULSD), andLow-Sulfur Gasoline Tier 1 & 2.Long-term maintenance will improve if the developers have the foresight into future significantimpacts to be analyzed with modeling efforts. Greenhouse gas emission predictions is anexample where many existing models have limited capabilities, but is foreseen to be goal.Page 6
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design ReportRobustnessIn modeling vernacular, “robust” refers to specific characteristics in the model's structure thatallow for a more thorough analysis that would otherwise be limited using more simplifiedtechniques. As an example, a simplified FCC yield could have a low conversion mode making55 percent gasoline and a high mode making 65 percent, without any adjustments for the feedquality, which do impact conversion. By adding feed quality adjustments, the model will makebetter yield predictions as a function of feed quality. Feed quality will change in the modelbecause of the different crude types supplying the World.There are some situations in modeling where the “Fixed Yield" or "Black Box” structure mightbe warranted. As will be emphasized throughout this report, a balance must be maintainedbetween “robustness” and other model objectives.UsabilitySince a World Model will be complex, significant consideration to model design and usability isrequired. Organizationally, there are different types of model “users,” including: Model designers and developers who lay out the conceptual model requirements,Model programmers who transform conceptual design into a model,Data collection and maintenance specialists,Model analysts or “runners," andEnd-users who take model results for further analysis.The model design should consider the organizational roles and responsibilities for modelperformance. Performance can mean many things, from speed of model, ease of data collectionand pass-through, convergence and infeasibility analysis, or output results for end-user analysis.Complex, sophisticated, and robust models have questionable long-term value if only a fewpeople in the organization can work, modify, run, or analyze them. If the usability is sochallenging that the EIA must always rely on outside expertise for minor adjustments, the designhas failed.SwitchesA switch is a programming feature that can turn options on and off. For example, switches can: activate or turn off a country or region,activate or turn off a quality specification or product,Page 7
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Report activate or turn off a specific season, andallow a crude to a terminal or prevent the flow.A switch will often prevent the data formulation from entering into the matrix code, and isfundamental to the design strategy and routinely used in refining planning models. Theseswitches are fundamental to the World Model design. In one mode, the model can run summerand winter, and a switch can allow a single period run. Equally important is the developersadding the specifications for summer, winter, and average seasons in anticipation of these modes.Rationale and ReasoningThis CDR attempts to provide rationale behind the recommendations. The World Model is a veryimportant yet ambitious project. The stakeholders — inside and outside the EIA — come frommany different backgrounds and experiences, and have different objectives. Some CDRrecommendations can and should be challenged; some will ultimately require additionaldiscussions. Providing the rationale can form the foundation for additional subject matterdiscussion.Continuous Balance of Objectives with TechnologyThere are constant trade-offs associated with most aspects of World Model design. The technicalitems include regional aggregation, number and types of crudes and products, refineryconfigurations, and logistics. The objectives include model usability and maintenance, modelspeed, stability, and model analysis, to name a few.Strategically, the trade-off is that higher resolution, detail, and fidelity will challenge the modelperformance, analysis, maintenance, and usability. Note, though, that sophistication, higherfidelity, and more complexity do not translate into better answers.The need to balance data with complexity should be ongoing. Coupling unreliable or highlyestimated data to sophisticated subroutines should be avoided.When in doubt of the judgments and decisions associated with the model “balance,” one shouldgo back to the fundamental objective of “reasonableness.”OtherNumerical approximations are used throughout the document for demonstrative purposes. Theyillustrate points and examples behind the recommendations; there is no intent for these data to beused for model design or to extract the data for other uses.Page 8
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design ReportModel StructureThe following requirements are fundamental to the Refining Sub-module: Receiving CrudeTransforming Crude into Products (Refining)Distributing ProductsLogisticsThese will be accomplished with the various sub-modules, or blocks, represented below:Figure 1. Block MethodologyEach of these blocks will be described in this CDR development. In addition, the inputs andoutputs for each block will impact the other blocks. This is a critical concept because one goal ofthe CDR is to balance the sophistication of these modular components with the model goals. Itwould be a fundamental flaw to dramatically over-design one block, and substantially underdesign another.These blocks are briefly presented below: Crude Block. This module will collect and distribute the crudes to be used in the GlobalModel. This block is the foundation for the entire Global Model, and is where thenumber, types, transportation, and characterization of the crudes will be achieved. Thedata and characterization of this block will significantly impact the refinery block and thecapability to globally balance World crudes and products.Refining Block. This module transforms crude into products. This block will havesignificant attention in the CDR to the development, operations, and rationale behind therecommendations. The World Model will simulate and balance the global crude andproducts supply and demand, and this block must have sufficient detail to properlyrepresent the global operations. Not only will this block produce products, but will betasked to generate weight, energy, and emissions balances. These additional tasks forcean additional level of detail in the Block.Product Block. This sub-module will balance the World’s product supply. The number,type, transportation, and characterization (specifications) of products will be achieved inPage 9
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Report this block. Movements of products from regions of the World to satisfy other regionaldemand requirements is fundamental to the Product Block.Logistics Block. This sub-module will interact with all the other blocks to receive,distribute, import, and export feeds and products with different modes of transportation.This is the module that connects every other module in this section of the Global Model.The Logistics Block will also be designed to capture regional material balances throughthe use of terminals and transportation vectors, which is fundamental to the Globalbalance.Regional Block Characterization. Each region represented in the World Model willhave an independent set of Crude, Product, Refining, and Logistics Blocks. The WorldModel will contemplate how to define the regional blocks. For example, one could definea North American Block, or separate the countries and develop separate blocks for theUnited States, Canada, and Mexico.Page 10
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Report3. Refining BlockFigure 2. Refining BlockThe Refining Block, central to the Global Model, must have sufficient complexity to: Receive, characterize, and process the regional crude slateCharacterize, simulate, and utilize the refinery process unitsProduce global specification productsProvide mass, energy, utility, and emissions balancesWithin the Refinery Block are a number of sub-modules to represent process unit operations in arefining complex. If the complexity in the process sub-modules is too low, the following will becompromised: Capability to represent crude transformations on different types on crude inputsCapability to produce specification-grade products from different crudes and differentunit operationsCapability to provide mass, energy, utility, and emission balancesOn the other hand, if the Refinery Block complexity is too high: model development, maintenance, and use-ability will suffer,model solving time will increase,model convergence and stability will be negatively impacted, andthere will be a significant over-emphasis on this block compared to the other blocks.In the Refining Block, “average operating conditions” is a term to reflect a yield prediction underan average condition. For example, the drum pressure of a coker has a range of operatingpressure that can impact yields. A hydrotreater can be designed to operate under differentPage 11
Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model – Petroleum Refining Component Design Reportpressures. The model will not simulate all the possible combinations of design variables, forwhich there are thousands across the globe. Rather, the model represents “average operatingpressure.” In the end, the World Model does not simulate a pressure; instead, it simulates arepresentative yield pattern. One could simulate two different operating modes (e.g., high andlow pressure), or a single mode at “average” conditions. Whether the process unit should berepresented by an average condition or have different modes of operating condition will bediscussed for each unit.With these concepts in mind, the Refining Block begins with the refinery configuration. Theconfiguration is fundamental to the transformation process, and it includes the types, capacities,and operations of refining process units.The configuration must be defined for all regional or country models. One comprehensive andcommercially-available data source for World refining capacity is The Oil and Gas JournalRefinery Survey, which defines common refinery process units and provides the cap
petroleum products. The Refining process includes numerous processing steps to achieve this transformation, which will be discussed, but a more comprehensive approach is required. The Refining process requires crude input information including crude types and source of origin. The Refining
B1.2 Support Hydrocarbon Production – Processing Facilities 38 B1.3 Support Hydrocarbon Production – Pipeline Export Power 40 B1.4 Support Hydrocarbon Production – Utilities and Offsites 40 B1.5 Support Manufacture of Downstream Hydrocarbon Products – Oil Refinery Products 41 . (ARENA) to provide a “desk-top” assessment of the .
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D 156 Test Method for Saybolt Color of Petroleum Prod-ucts (Saybolt Chromometer Method)4 D 235 Specification for Mineral Spirits (Petroleum Spirits) (Hydrocarbon Dry Cleaning Solvent)5 D 287 Test Method forAPI Gravity of Crude Petroleum and Petroleum Products (Hydrometer Method)4 D 323 Test Method for Vapor Pressure of Petroleum Prod-
D 156 Test Method for Saybolt Color of Petroleum Prod-ucts (Saybolt Chromometer Method)9 D 235 Specification for Mineral Spirits (Petroleum Spirits) (Hydrocarbon Dry Cleaning Solvents)10 D 287 Test Method forAPI Gravity of Crude Petroleum and Petroleum Products (Hydrometer Method)9 D 323 Test Method for Vapor Pressure of Petroleum Prod-
Petroleum Refining Process Descriptions Petroleum refining is a complex industry that generates a diverse slate of fuel and chemical products, from gasoline to heating oil. The refining process involves separating, cracking, restructuring, treating, and blending hydrocarbon molecules to generate petroleum products. Figure 1 shows the overall .
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petroleum products include gasoline, kerosene, asphalt, lubricants, and solvents, among others. Firms engaged in petroleum refining are categorized under the North American Industry Classification System (N AICS) code 324110. In 2006, 149 establishments owned by 58 parent companies were refining petroleum. That same year, the petroleum
