ENERGY VENTURES ANALYSIS QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOK

2y ago
16 Views
3 Downloads
763.28 KB
9 Pages
Last View : Today
Last Download : 3m ago
Upload by : Francisco Tran
Transcription

ENERGY VENTURES ANALYSISQUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKGLOBAL LNG TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS:UNDER CONSTRUCTION LNG CAPACITYQ4 2017Status of the global market As of December 2017, there is 351 MMTPA of global LNG exportcapacity online. Having added 27.8 MMTPA so far in 2017, amassive amount of new capacity (84 MMTPA) remains underconstruction—the bulk of which is in the U.S. and Australia and isscheduled to start in 2018-2019.What glut? Spot prices surge as market tightens dramatically Having hovered south of 6/MMBTU through the summer, LNGspot prices have surged in early-winter. While upward pricemovement was expected heading into peak demand period,prices are approaching 10/MMBTU—exceeding peak pricesfrom last year and highlighting a surprisingly tight market.Indonesia3.8 MMTPAMalaysia1.2MMTPARussia11.0MMTPAUnited States46.5 MMTPAAustralia16.5MMTPAChinese demand soaring with winter only just beginningTotal:84 MMTPAMozambique3.4 MMTPACameroon1.2 MMTPA The tightening global market—largely unexpected due to thetremendous amount of new capacity coming online—has beenprimarily driven by soaring demand in CHINA. With widespread GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY: 2016-2019efforts underway to convert residential heating from coal to gas, MMTPA400the market is expanding at a remarkably rapid rate.EVA Forecast– As of 12/2017350 China is likely to overtake SOUTH KOREA this year as the world's300second largest LNG importer.LIQUEFIED NATURAL GASRussia's Yamal comes in from the cold250200 In early December, Novatek, TOTAL and other project partners 150brought online the first 5.5 MMTPA train at YAMAL LNG. The100successful and on-time completion of Train 1 is a remarkable50achievement given the harsh operating environment in theRussian arctic. Novatek claims the two remaining trains—totaling201611 MMTPA—will come online in mid-2018 and early-2019, severalMENAmonths ahead of the originally announced schedule.AfricaEuropeFirst LNG for Christmas? Cove Point completion imminent20172018AsiaSouth AmericaNorth America2019AustraliaRussia Globally, the next LNG project to come online will be the 5.3GLOBAL LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019MMTPA COVE POINT in Maryland on the U.S. East Coast. Theproject has full approval to commence liquefaction and first LNG MMTPAappears imminent—likely either in late-December or early- 400EVA Forecast– 350January. Shell will take the first batch of commissioning cargoes.Cheniere pushes Sabine Pass operations to peak production300250 Having successfully brought all four trains online at its 18 MMTPASABINE PASS, Cheniere has routinely operated the project at near 200peak capacity through Q4 as offtakers (including Cheniere itself) 150seek to take advantage of rising global prices.100The art of LNG diplomacy: The President goes to China President Trump visited China in early-November, with LNG beingone of the key focal points. The trip resulted in a flurry ofagreements (all non-binding) between Chinese buyers and U.S.LNG developers, including Cheniere, Delfin & Alaska LNG.*Throughout the report, volumes are listed in Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum(MMTPA), the most commonly used unit for global LNG trade. MMTPA / 7.5 BCFD.1901 North Moore StreetSuite 1200Arlington, VA 22209502016AsiaSouth AmericaBunker201720182019EuropeMENANorth AmericaAfricaSources: EVA, DOE, Bloomberg, IGU, GIIGNL703-276-8900www.evainc.com 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKU.S. LNG: EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTSRECENT DEVELOPMENTS A total of 18 MMTPA of LNG export capacity is now online in theU.S. L-48. An additional 46.5 MMTPA is under construction.U.S. LNG PROJECTS: TIMELINEJan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20%Complete100%T1 Summer cargoes were split between Asia and Mexico, withrelatively few going to Europe, a trend that continued heading intowinter. South Korea has emerged as the second largest recipient ofU.S. LNG, largely as a result of the KOGAS Sabine Pass contractgoing into effect in June. The GAIL contract begins in March, whichwill likely direct more cargoes to India. Beyond Sabine Pass, Cove Point will be the next U.S. project tocome online. The 5.3 MMTPA project, located in Maryland andoperated by Dominion, has been approved to begin commissioningand is scheduled for first LNG in late-December or early-January. Construction on most other U.S. projects has largely remained onschedule, with most projects targeting 2019, when exports willjump from 3.7 BCFD to 8.6 BCFD. Only a few trains are expectedonline in 2018, including the first phase of Elba Island and perhapsthe first train at Freeport %Total:230 cargoesEVA Forecast– 10Sabine 1-4running atpeak capacityHurricaneHarvey864T2U.S. LNG EXPORTS BY DESTINATION (# cargoes)U.S. LNG EXPORTS BY PROJECT: 2016-2019BCFDElba Island By a considerable margin, Mexico remains the largest importer ofU.S. LNG, taking in 47 cargoes total, including 39 in 2017 alone.Imports are driven by surging power demand and decliningdomestic production, as well as some delays and obstacles in theconstruction of inter-regional domestic gas pipelines.Freeport In total, more than 230 cargoes have been exported from SabinePass, including 58 in 2016 and 172 so far in 2017. Assuming nomechanical issues, the project can be expected to export 22cargoes/month.CorpusChristi All existing capacity is limited to Cheniere's Sabine Pass project onthe Gulf Coast, where four trains are online and have beenoperating near full capacity since mid-Sept (i.e., post-Harvey).Sabine Pass EVA projects exports for 2017 will total 13.4 MMT, making the U.S.the world's 6th largest exporter (up from 17th largest in 2016).Cove PointexportsimminentMexico47Scheduledmaintenance atSabine PassSouthKorea292Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Sabine Pass LNGCameron LNGOther42Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Cove PointCorpus Christi LNG 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.Jan-19China23Jul-19Freeport LNGElba IslandThrough Dec10, 2017Chile17 Japan13Kuwait8Brazil9Turkey9Spain10ArgentinaJordan 1112Page 2

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKU.S. LNG: PRE-FID PROJECTS The state of Alaska and Sinopec (China's largest NOC) signedagreements to cooperate on development of the massiveAlaska LNG. The deal follows a similar agreement with KOGASsigned in June, but the proposed 43 billion project andassociated 800-mile pipeline still faces serious obstacles.REGULATORY UPDATEKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS In December, Ohio congressman Bill Johnson introduced twoLNG-related bills for consideration. The first would negate theneed for separate approval from DOE following FERC approval.The second would expedite the approval process for small-scaleLNG projects. While both bills would likely meet solid bipartisansupport, it's unclear whether they will be a priority. Cheniere initiated the process of amending its FERC applicationfor the expansion at its Corpus Christi project. Two 4.5 MMTPAtrains are already under construction, and a third has fullapproval, but the expansion capacity will instead employ up toseven small-scale (1.4 MMTPA) modular trains. Like otherdevelopers pursuing smaller-capacity trains, Cheniere believesit will allow for easier marketing and streamlined, incrementaldevelopment. In September, the proposed Jordan Cove project submitted acomplete FERC application after initiating pre-filing earlier inthe year. The Oregon proposal had previously been rejected byFERC, but developer Pembina (formerly Veresen) has electedto re-start the process. Also in September, the DOE announced it would evaluate itpermitting process for LNG export projects and move toeliminate any burdensome and unnecessary requirements. Italso proposed a rule to streamline small-scale LNG projects. 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.120337 TPA-Cancelled Cheniere signed a non-binding MOU with CNPC for LNG offtakefrom either Sabine Pass T6 or Corpus Christi T3. Detailsregarding volume or duration were not disclosed.140134MMTPATotal pre-FIDproposedcapacity:Mostly Stalled Delfin FLNG signed a non-binding MOU with China GasHoldings for 3 MMTPA starting in 2021. The project hasadditional MOUs with BTG Pactual and Litgas, though thosewere signed a few years ago and may have lapsed.160Early Stage Several other deals were announced during President Trump'svisit to China in early-November. These include:MMTPAAdvanced Venture Global LNG, the developer of Calcasieu Pass LNG,signed a SPA with Edison for 1 MMTPA for 20 years, beginningupon the completion of the project (scheduled for 2021).U.S. LNG CAPACITY BY DEVELOPMENT STAGEConstruction Several second wave U.S. LNG projects made clear, ifpreliminary, commercial steps in late-2017—the first positivesigns in at least two years. With global demand exceedingexpectations, there's a growing realization that new LNG supplywill be needed sooner rather than later, and early signs ofinterest among LNG buyers are beginning to emerge.ExistingKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTSU.S. LNG REGULATORY PROCESSFully FERC Approved, pre-FIDGolden PassCameron T4-5Magnolia LNGSabine Pass T6Delfin FLNG*Lake CharlesCorpus Christi T3Under Full FERC Review(submitted application)newsletter)Gulf LNGTable (fromCalcasieuPass LNG withTexas LNGRioGrandeLNGJordan Coverecent progress/newsAnnova LNGFreeport T4 Port Arthur LNGby projectAlaska LNG Plaquemines LNG Driftwood LNGFERC Pre-Filing(no complete application)Corpus Christi T4-5Fourchon LNGDriftwood LNGCommonwealth LNGYet to begin FERC processMain Pass EnergyBarca LNGGasfin LNGGulf CoastAlturas LNGEos LNGMonkey IslandCE FLNGGen. American LNGG2 LNG* As a floating LNG project located offshore, Delfin FLNG requiredregulatory approval from the U.S. Maritime Administration(MARAD). MARAD approved the project in March, 2017.Page 3

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKGLOBAL LNG PRICESKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS LNG spot prices fell over the summer, but did not stay as low aslong as many expected. NE Asian summer demand surprised to theupside, as did Southern European demand, which kept spot pricesonly slightly below 6/MMBTU. Spot prices have surged since October as the market moves rapidlytoward peak winter demand. December prices are around 9.00/MMBTU, with January prices expected to rise to 10.50/MMBTU—the highest level in three years and well abovepeak prices in 2016. Even at current levels, global prices appear sufficient for U.S. LNGofftakers to sell their cargoes at a profit, even when including fullfixed costs (i.e., the tolling fee). For most of the last few years, thedifferential between global and Henry Hub prices has only workedon a variable netback basis (i.e., ignoring sunk costs).U.S. LNG COSTS: DECEMBER SNAPSHOTDecember 2017 ( /MMBTU)FOB CostHenry Hub 2.8915% Surcha rge 0.43Tol l i ng Fee 2.89Total FOB Cost 6.21Des ti na ti onTo Europe To AsiaShi ppi ng Rega s 0.75 1.50Total Landed Cost 6.96 7.71Avg. Regi ona l Spot Pri ce 7.52 9.80Fi xed Cos ts 2.89 2.89Va ri a bl e Netba ck (excl . fi xed cos ts ) 3.45 4.98Ful l Netba ck (i ncl . fi xed cos ts ) 0.56 2.09Note: The above represents the structure of Cheniere's SPA formost trains at Sabine Pass. Subsequent projects have slightlydifferent structures. Shipping costs vary depending onspecifications of ship and charter contract. Offtakers are assumedto make shipping decisions excluding sunk costs (i.e., tolling fees). NW EUROPEAN hub prices have also surged heading into winter,hovering around 7.50/MMBTU. Access to Russian and Norwegiangas will keep European prices below global spot prices, thoughrecent outages at the gas hub in Austria as well as the North SeaCURRENT DRIVERS OF MARKET PRICESForties pipeline have introduced additional upside price risk.Henry Hub Regardless, with spot prices exceeding European prices, LNG flowsare likely to be dominated by importing markets in Asia, as sellers Li ttl e s i gn of up upwa rd pri ce movement a s wi nter s ta rtspursue the highest margin markets.mi l d a nd producti on hi ts new record hi ghs . An exception may be NBP prices in the U.K., whose winter priceNW Europepeaks could outpace those on the continent due to the pending Hi gh s ummer temps i n South a nd s tora ge dema nd i nclosure of the Rough gas storage facility. This in turn, could pull in North ha s bumped forwa rd curves a bove 7/MMBTU.more winter cargoes to the U.K. than in years past—an outcomeOil-Linked LNGmade more probable given a cold start to December.Sha rp l a te-s ummer upti ck l i kel y to be s us ta i ned a s OPEC While spot prices have a greater impact on the ultimatea grees to extend producti on cut through 2018.destination of U.S. LNG cargoes, the bulk of global LNG tradeSpot LNGremains linked to oil. Oil prices have spiked over the past fewmonths, which will increase the price of oil-linked LNG—though NE As i a n hea ti ng dema nd, es peci a l l y i n Chi na , pus hi ngpri ces to 10/MMBTU wi th wi nter onl y jus t begi nni ng.most contracts include a lag of a few months.COMPETITIVENESS OF U.S. LNG IN GLOBAL MARKETS: 2016-2019 /MMBTU 10.00Strong winterEVA Forecast– 9.00netbacks 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00Tightening in all major importComfortable differentials expected inUS LNG still 1.00marketscoming winter monthsflowed 19U.S. LNG Variable Sunk U.S. LNG Variable Dutch TTFU.K NBPJapan SpotContract LNG (14.5% Brent, no lag)Henry HubNote: Chart above uses EVA's Henry Hub and oil price forecasts, as well as forward curves (as of Sept. 10) for TTF & NBP. Variable costs include 15% of HenryHub plus 0.45/MMBTU shipping to Europe and 0.30/MMBTU for regas. Shipping to Asia averages 1.20/MMBTU. Japan spot prices from METI. 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.Page 4

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKNEW LNG SUPPLY: AUSTRALIAKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS As of December 2017, Australia has 68 MMTPA of existing LNGexport capacity and another 16.5 MMTPA under construction. EVAprojects Australia will export 55.4 MMT in 2017, rising sharply to65.2 MMT in 2018. This represents an enormous increase over2015, when exports totaled only 29.5 MMT. Most recently, in late-October Chevron brought online the first 4.5MMPTA train at its Wheatstone project in western Australia. Likemany projects in Australia, it had previously suffered fromrepeated delays and cost overruns, but the ramp-up has so fargone smoothly. The second 4.5 MMTPA train is scheduled forcompletion in early-2018.NEW AUSTRALIAN LNG CAPACITY: 2017-2019MMTPA1412Project x project: 2016-2019108642- Shell's 3.6 MMTPA Prelude FLNG made considerable strides overthe summer. The massive vessel is now on-site and the mooringhas been completed. First LNG is scheduled for mid-2018. The threat of domestic gas shortages in Australia has faded fromview as the market shifts away from peak summer demand. Still,the issue remains critical to the outlook for the three East Coastprojects, with account for 27% of the country's total LNG exportcapacity (existing & under construction). In late-November, Shell and PetroChina agreed to develop 5 TCFof gas in the Surat Basin, which would be used to supply QCLNG.2017Gorgon LNG T3Wheatstone LNG T2Ichthys LNG T120182019Wheatstone LNG T1Prelude FLNG T1Ichthys LNG T2AUSTRALIAN LNG EXPORT .769.6201869.612.381.9201981.94.286.1NEW LNG SUPPLY: GLOBAL (EXCL. U.S./AUSTRALIA)KEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS As of December 2017, there is 80 MMTPA of LNG capacity underconstruction. Beyond the U.S. and Australia, it's located in Russia(Yamal), Malaysia (PFLNG 2), Cameroon (Cameroon LNG), Indonesia(Tangguh T3) and most recently, Mozambique (Coral FLNG). In early-December, RUSSIA's Novatek and partner TOTALsuccessfully brought the first 5.5 MMTPA train at Yamal LNG online.Despite the extremely difficult operating environment in theremote Arctic, the train was completed largely on-time and onbudget. Novatek said Trains 2-3 (totaling 11 MMTPA) will befinished ahead of schedule in mid-2018 & early-2019, respectively. Yamal is Russia's second LNG project—the first, Sakhalin, cameonline in 2009 and is owned by Gazprom. More recently, Novatek isadvancing plans on the 16.5 MMTPA Arctic LNG, proposed to comeonline in 2023 (though it's in very early stages of development). In CANADA, Woodfibre LNG announced it would delay constructionon the 2.1 MMTPA project until mid-2018. Developers said it wasstruggling to bring costs down to workable levels. The projectremains the most likely Canadian project to move forward. In October, IRAN's NOC (NIOC) confirmed it was negotiating withExmar to take possession of the FLNG vessel originally completedfor the 0.5 MMTPA Caribbean FLNG project in Colombia. The vesselwas completed in 2015, but the project sponsor went out ofbusiness shortly thereafter and never took possession. The dealmay not be finalized and the project is small, but it would still marka rapid and unexpected emergence of Iran as an LNG exporter. 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.NEW GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY: 2017-2019MMTPA1052017MLNG T9Yamal LNG T2Cameroon FLNG T120182019Yamal LNG T1Yamal LNG T3PROPOSED NEW LNG CAPACITY (GLOBAL)Australia57Qatar30Russia67Other25Total Proposed:784 MMTPAUnitedStates319Canada252Mozambique Tanzania1024Page 5

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKLNG DEMAND: JAPAN, KOREA, TAIWAN & S.E. ASIAKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS LNG demand in KOREA is set to reach the highest levels since2014. The country is the second largest recipient of U.S. LNG,bringing in 29 cargoes, including 21 since June 2017, when theKOGAS offtake contract with Sabine Pass went in effect. The dealcalls for KOGAS to take 3.5 MMTPA from the project for 20 years. Korea's run as the world's second largest LNG importer may soonbe coming to an end as a result of surging demand in China, butdemand still has considerable upside as a result of the presidentialelections earlier in the year. President Moon has offered strongsupport to renewable energy and gas-fired power and plans tolimit coal and nuclear generation. In August, a large-scale blackout in TAIWAN highlighted thechronic power supply shortages plaguing the country. Withnuclear outages becoming more common and emergingregulations designed to limit coal use, LNG imports are set to hit arecord high in 2017 and continue growing through 2020. Of all the emerging importers, BANGLADESH is increasingly seenas presenting the largest upside for new LNG demand.Government officials project LNG imports could rise from zero to20 MMTPA by the early-2020s. That magnitude is largelyunfeasible, but EVA expects meaningful imports as early as 2018.JKT & S.E. ASIA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019MMTPA200EVA Forecast– 150100502016JapanThailandMalaysia20172018South deshJKT LNG DEMAND: gaporeMalaysiaPhilippinesBangladeshTotal% Global 2.01.20.10.1152.249%2019 2.1N/A159.14%47%--LNG DEMAND: CHINA & INDIAKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS The pace and magnitude of China's surging demand has been thesingle most important LNG market trend in 2017. It wasuniversally recognized that demand would rise, but the increasehas blown past even the most bullish projections. EVA projects2017 imports into China will reach 37 MMT, a full 10 MMTPA( 35%) increase over 2016. The surge in Chinese demand will almost certainly push it ahead ofKorea as the world's second largest LNG importer. It will remain farbehind Japan for several more years, but with import capacity at 65MMTPA and rising, the country is in prime position to takeadvantage of new supply hitting the water over the next few years.CHINA & INDIA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019MMTPA8070EVA Forecast– 605040302010Annual Forecast CHINA has also emerged as a leading importer of U.S. LNG, behind20162017 to squeeze2018quarterly2019Toughonly Mexico and South Korea. The relationship is deepening as aChinaIndiaresult of overt diplomacy on behalf of the Trump administration toCHINA & INDIA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019foster greater LNG cooperation between the two countries.MMTPA INDIAN LNG demand has been surprisingly flat through 2017.ChinaGrowth will be stronger in 2018. India has also led the charge Indiaamong buyers to renegotiate long-term deals to reduce the 01842.923.666.521% GAIL, India's primary LNG importer, is one of the main LNG % Global Demandofftakers from the first two U.S. projects, contracting for aCHINA & INDIA LNG IMPORT CAPACITYcombined 5.8 MMTPA from Sabine Pass and Cove Point (bothAs of endAs of endUndercontracts go into effect in early-2018). GAIL has had difficulty20102016ConstructionMMTPAfinding domestic downstream buyers and is reportedly looking to14.748.422.9modify its Cove Point contract, though Dominion has repeatedly ChinaIndia15.027.021.0said the contract is not open to renegotiation. 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.2019 CAGR46.219%27.313%73.516%22%--Forecast forend-201986.063.0Page 6

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKLNG DEMAND: MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICAKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTSMENA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019 PAKISTAN inaugurated its second FSRU import terminal in lateNovember. The 4.5 MMTPA facility in Karachi expands thecountry's import capacity to 8.3 MMTPA. The first FSRU cameonline in 2015 and has been heavily utilized.MMTPA30 Pakistan—a case study in the value of FSRUs over onshoreterminals—will be MENA's largest importer by 2019. Pakistanwill also be watched closely by LNG developers and sellershoping for new markets during the coming oversupply. With gas demand soaring in the populous country, thegovernment is incredibly optimistic about LNG, projectingdemand to reach nearly 30 MMTPA by the early-2020s. Politicalissues will likely slow development, as will the need for pipelineadditions linking inland regions with the coast. After bringing in 7.5 MMT in 2016 (a remarkable 188% increaseover 2015), EGYPT's transition from LNG exporter to importer isquickly reversing. Imports in 2017 will fall to 5.8 MMT andalmost be eliminated by 2019 as a result of new domestic gasproduction—especially from the massive Zohr field, whichstarted production in mid-December. MENA has imported 23 U.S. cargoes in 2017, up from 7 in 2016.The imports are concentrated in peak demand summer months.EVA Forecast– istanOtherMENA LNG DEMAND: otal% Global 4.41.321.67%20183.45.03.33.27.01.923.88%2019 CAGR1.2-45%5.516%4.110%3.33%7.234%2.7 112%24.06%7%--LNG DEMAND: EUROPEKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS Because LNG markets remained tighter, imports into Europe—intheory, the global backstop market—have not surged to thedegree initially expected, though the region is still set to importthe most LNG since 2012. Through the summer, Southern Europe was the bright spot, withLNG demand in SPAIN, ITALY, PORTUGAL and TURKEY allshowing meaningful increases compared to last year, the resultof an abnormally hot summer, low hydro output and reducedpipeline imports from Algeria. Heading into winter, European LNG imports are likely toincrease considerably due to rising demand and lower thanaverage storage levels. FRANCE, already on pace to import themost LNG since 2012, could see even larger spikes as a result ofrecently announced outages at four large nuclear power plants. The U.K. may also see a considerable spike in winter LNGimports as a result of colder than normal weather and reducedoutput from the country's primary gas storage facility. Still, U.K.imports through 2017 have surprised to the downside and arelikely to finish at the lowest levels since 2008. GERMANY announced plans to install its first LNG importterminal, a 2.5 MMTPA facility located in Hamburg. The proposalis in very early stages and would not be completed until late2022 at the earliest. FINLAND opened its second LNG import terminal, though likethe other first, it is very small scale (a third is in development). 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.EUROPE LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019MMTPA70605040302010U.K.BelgiumEVA Forecast– nd2019ItalyOtherEUROPE LNG DEMAND: ugalLithuaniaPolandOtherTotal% Global 26.97.06.01.22.41.92.53.049.216%2019 3.561%4.8 123%58.015%17%--Page 7

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKLNG DEMAND: SOUTH AMERICAKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTSSOUTH AMERICA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019 In 2016, South America was the leading recipient of U.S. LNG fromSabine Pass, taking in 21 of 58 cargoes, or 36%. The trend has notheld through 2017, with only 12% of U.S. cargoes directed to theregion this year. Total regional LNG demand, already low in 2016,has fallen further in 2017, driven mostly by strong hydro output.MMTPA15EVA Forecast– 10 The relationship with hydro is most apparent in BRAZIL, whereimports fell from 4.8 MMT in 2015 to 1.5 MMT in 2016 and are set tofall to 1.2 MMT in 2017—the lowest levels since 2011.5 Demand in CHILE has been stable through 2017. Import capacity is2016201720182019currently limited to 4.2 MMT, but several new terminals, totaling 8.4ChileArgentinaBrazilMMTPA, are in development. Not all will move forward, but with gasDom. RepublicColombiaJamaicademand rising and few alternative supply options, LNG imports areprojected to increase in 2019 and beyond.SOUTH AMERICA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019 ARGENTINA was South America's largest importer in 2016 and will MMTPAremain so through 2017. Demand has little upside however, as the Chilecountry is still moving quickly to develop its Vaca Muerte shale play. Argentina As expected, the PANAMA CANAL has become a vital point of transitfor U.S. LNG cargoes heading to Asia. However, shippers have beenfrustrated by constraints, including rules limiting LNG transit to thedaytime. Canal authorities have said these constraints will beremoved by mid-2018, when transits would be allowed to double.BrazilDom. RepublicColombiaJamaicaTotal% Global .10.18.63%20183.23.41.90.90.30.29.83%2019 CAGR4.512%3.1-3%2.824%0.93%0.6 114%0.2 144%12.010%4%--LNG DEMAND: NORTH AMERICAKEY TRENDS & HIGHLIGHTS MEXICO remains by far the largest importer of U.S. LNG, bringing in a NO. AMERICA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019 (GROSS)total of 47 cargoes through Dec. 2017. The bulk of these cargoes (39) MMTPAhave been delivered in 2017. About 70% of the 2017 cargoes have 10EVA Forecast– been delivered to the Manzanillo terminal on the west coast. Mexico's LNG demand has surprised to the upside, as it hadpreviously been expected to steadily decline as a result of increasedaccess to low-cost U.S. pipeline gas. However, several pipelines havebeen delayed, and those completed have been insufficient to keep upwith surging demand from the power sector, or make up for decliningdomestic production. Indeed, Mexico's 2017 LNG demand is set to behigher than 2016, though there is limited upside beyond this year.8 In the U.S., Engie has continued to import 4 cargoes/month fromTrinidad to its Everett terminal in Boston.2 Historically, LNG demand in PUERTO RICO is very stable, hoveringvery close to 1.3 MMTPA. Hurricane Maria devastated the smallisland's electrical grid, with many remaining without power. However,LNG imports do not appear to have been impacted as of yet.-NET U.S. LNG DEMAND: 2010-2017 o2017United States20182019Puerto RicoCanadaNOR. AMERICA LNG DEMAND: 2016-2019 (GROSS)2.0 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.620162017MMTPAMexicoUnited StatesPuerto RicoCanadaTotal2018 % Global 184.31.41.30.37.22%2019 CAGR4.32%1.4-5%1.30%0.33%7.20%2%-Page 8

Q4 2017QUARTERLY LNG OUTLOOKAppendix: Country by Country LNG Demand & Supply Forecast: 2016-2019LNG DEMAND FORECAST BY COUNTRY: tinaChileUnited StatesPuerto RicoDom. iaJamaicaGhanaAbu DhabiPhilippinesMaltaGibraltarUruguayBahrainIvory CoastBangladeshEl SalvadorPanamaBunker 9 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.LNG SUPPLY FORECAST BY COUNTRY: 2016-2019MMTPA2016201720182019AlgeriaEq. 140.719.824.48.03.918.81.14.2339.9LNG DEMAND FORECAST BY REGION 2016-2019MMTPA2016201720182019AsiaEuropeMENANorth AmericaSouth 0.3LNG SUPPLY FORECAST BY REGION 2016-2019MMTPA201620172018Asia

Sabine Pass LNG Cove Point Freeport LNG Cameron LNG Corpus Christi LNG Elba Island U.S. LNG EXPORTS BY PROJECT: 2016-2019 Scheduled maintenance at Sabine Pass Hurricane . for the expansion at its Corpus Christi project. Two 4.5 MMTPA trains are already under construction, and a third has full approval, but

Related Documents:

LNG Storage/ LNG Loading 4 1 2 3 LNG Carrier 147,000 m³ Cond. 75,000 m³ LP Flare Incinerator 6 LNG Process Plant LNG Tank 125,000 m³ 20 1 LNG Rundown from Process Plant to Storage at B.L. 2 LNG Vapour from Storage to Process Plant at B.L. 3 Vacuum Breaker Gas for LNG Tanks from Process Plant at B.L. 4 LNG Loading from Storage to Ship .

equipment, and operation/reporting of this public access LNG refueling station. Sysco was responsible for constructing the LNG refueling station with new equipment: Two above-ground horizontal LNG storage tanks (16,000-gallon capacity each). Two island mounded LNG dispensers. One offloading station and pump assembly. LNG pump skid.

Underground LNG tank: T-2 tank at Fukukita station of Saibu Gas Co., . proper engineering design of storage tanks onshore and on LNG ships and elsewhere. 1 This publication was supported by a research consortium, Commercial Frameworks for LNG in North America. Sponsors of the consortium were BP Energy Company-Global LNG, BG LNG Services,

the gap analysis, the safety requirements of the IGC Code were applied to a 180K LNG carrier and a 7.5K small LNG bunkering vessel, and those of the IGF Code were applied to an LNG fuelled 50K DWT bulk carrier and a 325K LNG fuelled ore carrier. Table 1. Chapters matching for the IGC and IGF Codes. IGC Code IGF Code Ch.1 General Ch. 2 and 4 2.

LNG supply chain: Learn how Port of . The challenges of personnel that lack experience in LNG, and how to maintain safe and reliable operations LNG Operations: What is required of ship owners to use LNG as a fuel? Development of international regulations and references for creating safe LNG fueling operations, such as hazard identification processes, risk assessment and management .

5 LNG storage tanks After finishing the second step in the cooling process, the now lique-fied natural gas is sent onwards to on-site LNG storage tanks. The temperature inside these tanks is -162 C (-259 F). 6 LNG tank trucks The on-site storage tanks are con-nected to a truck loading point. Here it is possible to load LNG onto

Appendix R . Major LNG Incidents . LNG Incident History K-1 Major LNG Incidents Involving LNG Release Incident Date Ship/Facility Name Location Ship Status Injuries/ Fatalities Ship/ Property Damage LNG Spill/ Release Incident Sum

Am I my Brother’s Keeper? Sibling Spillover E ects: The Case of Developmental Disabilities and Externalizing Behavior Jason Fletcher, Nicole Hair, and Barbara Wolfe July 27, 2012 Abstract Using a sample of sibling pairs from the PSID-CDS, we examine the e ects of sibling health status on early educational outcomes. We nd that sibling developmental dis- ability and externalizing behavior are .