The Case For Convertible Bonds - Credit Suisse
CreditSuisse Investment PartnersAsset ManagementThe case forconvertible bondsQ1 2021
ForewordContentsCombining performance and protectionConvertible bonds have been used by corporations to raise external capital since the middleof the nineteenth century. Initially, they were issued mainly by US railroad companies tofinance their growth. It has been a long time since small to medium-sized companies ingrowth markets were the only ones issuing convertible bonds. Today, convertibles havebecome a global asset class. Issuers range from medium-sized companies to largeinternational corporations in both developed and emerging economies.As a hybrid form of financing somewhere between equity and borrowing, convertible bondsare not only attractive for the issuing company, but investors also stand to benefit fromcertain characteristics of convertible bonds that are not tied to a specific market situation orinvestment strategy. As an additional source of risk diversification, convertible bonds are alsosuitable for inclusion in mixed (multi-asset-class) portfolios. It is important to note the widevariety of convertible bond strategies ranging from low-risk approaches to more dynamicones with higher potential for both risk and return.But why invest in convertible bonds? The current uncertainty on the financial markets presentsopportunities and risks. Convertible bonds enable investors to benefit from a rising marketwithout running the same risks as with an equity investment. Interest rates, which are currentlyvery low, present another challenge. Right now, it is difficult to earn attractive returns from bondmarkets using traditional strategies. However, the situation looks different for convertible bonds.Since they are corporate bonds with an equity option component, they may contain an additionalsource of income compared to conventional corporate bonds. Besides the attractive potentialreturns that convertible bonds offer, it is important to understand the risks and opportunitiesthey entail.We are keen on helping our investors gain a deeper understanding of convertible bonds,which we believe are an attractive asset class.Foreword2Executive summary5Introduction6Convertible bonds in detail8History and investment universe18The convertible bond market: a historical overview20The dynamically changing convertible bond universe22Convertible bonds and asset allocation24Risk and return of convertible bonds26Portfolio optimization with convertible bonds28Reduction of the expected drawdown30Glossary34Using our global convertibles product range, we aim to offer our clients the best possiblesolutions in the global convertibles segment. The various fund awards that we have won inrecent years are a gratifying endorsement of our work.Oliver GasserChief Executive Officer atCredit Suisse InvestmentPartners2/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementConvertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds3/36
Executive summaryThis white paper is divided into three main sections.Each section can be read separately, but starting withthe main characteristics of convertible bonds will makethe other two sections easier to understand. A briefoverview is provided at the beginning of each section.1.2.3.The hybrid nature of convertiblebonds provides considerable benefitsfor investors: decreases in the equityprice of the underlying asset arehedged against by the nominal valueof the bond, whereas an increasein the equity price of the underlyingasset also increases the value ofthe convertible bond. This sectiondescribes the basic characteristicsof convertible bonds and explainswhat makes them attractive in thecurrent market environment.Convertible bonds have been inexistence for around 150 years now.The last ten years have seen anincrease in convertibles issuance,particularly in the US. Today, theconvertibles market is dominatedby US issuers (65%), followed byEuropean issuers (22%). In thissection, we focus on the currentconvertible bond universe and thedynamic changes occurring onthe market.Thanks to their strong historicalperformance and low volatility,convertible bonds have an excellentperformance track record comparedto equities and bonds.1 In mixedportfolios, convertible bonds aresuitable for increasing portfolio diversification and reducing downside risk.Introduction1History and investmentuniverseConvertible bondsand asset allocationFor details, please see Figure 10 on page 27.Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of future performance.4/36Credit Suisse Investment PartnersConvertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds5/36
IntroductionConvertible bonds in detailThis section provides an overview of the keyterms used for valuing convertible bonds suchas bond floor, parity, and convexity.ȷȷȷȷȷȷ6/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementThe Sika convertible bond: interpreting thefeatures of a convertible bond using aconcrete example.ȷȷThe price of a convertible bond is linked to thebond floor and parity. Three examples(convertible bonds issued by Teva, Total, andSMIC) illustrate how the bond componentsprovide protection and how investors may alsobenefit from rising equity markets.Factors influencing the price of convertiblebonds and the risks involved. Features specificto equities, bonds, and options must be takeninto account when valuing convertible bonds.Risks such as prospectus risk and currency riskmust be given special consideration wheninvesting in convertible bonds.Convertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds7/36
Convertible bonds in detailConvertible bonds are hybrid financial instruments that combine the features of corporatebonds (debt) and shares (equity). Like conventional bonds, convertible bonds have a fixedterm, at the end of which the investor is entitledto repayment of the principal. The difference isthat convertible bonds entail a conversion right.The investor is entitled to convert the bonds intoa predefined number of shares, subject to theconditions set out in the prospectus.Since a convertible bond has the additional optionof conversion into shares, it costs more than acorporate bond (with the same term and coupon)issued by the same company. This lower pricebarrier is known as the bond floor. It is equivalentto the present value of the future cash flows if theconversion option is not exercised. The percentage difference between the convertible bond priceand the bond floor is the investment premium.In addition to the bond floor, parity is the othernatural lower price barrier for a convertible bond.Parity represents the value of the shares intowhich the bond can be converted. The relativeprice difference between the bond and parity iscalled the conversion premium. These relationships are illustrated in Figure 1.Figure 1: The risk/return profile of a convertible bondConvertible bond priceDistressedBond-likeBalancedCredit Low sensitivity to equityprice (delta)/high premium Focus on yield to maturityEquity High sensitivity to equityprice (delta)/low premium Yield advantage(coupon – dividend) Synthetic hedge (put)PremiumEquity-likeEquity conversionvalue (parity)Bond value (bond floor)Volatility Delta of 30% to 70% Maximum asymmetry/convexityEquity priceConvertible bonds can be divided into threecategories depending on how the price of theunderlying share develops:ȷȷ Equity-likeȷȷBalancedȷȷBond-likeWhen the share price exceeds the strike price,the convertible bond is said to be “in the money.”This is illustrated in the right-hand section ofFigure 1, where the value of the convertible bondis close to parity (low conversion premium) andbehaves similarly to the underlying share.In the balanced section of the illustration, theconvertible bond is “at the money.” This sectionis particularly interesting for investors becauseit provides high participation when the share priceis rising and low participation when the shareprice is falling. The ratio of upside potential todownside protection is at its highest, and this iswhere the asymmetric risk/return profile characteristic of convertible bonds comes into its own.This feature is known as the convertible bond’sconvexity, which is measured in terms of gamma.If the share price is comparatively low, the convertiblebond is “out of the money” and behaves similarly to aconventional corporate bond. In this territory, changesin the interest rate and the credit risk premium havean important influence on pricing. A distinction shouldbe drawn between two different classes within thebond-like category:ȷȷ Convertible bonds from companies with solidcredit ratings are protected on the downside bythe bond floor.ȷȷ8/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementTo sum up, if the convertible bond is out of themoney, it behaves like a conventional corporatebond. If it is in the money, its equity-like characteristics prevail. But how does the price of a convertible bond behave between these extremes?This is in fact the most attractive situation, theso-called “sweet spot,” when convertible bondsthat are at the money (i.e. close to the strikeprice) most clearly demonstrate their hybridnature. The value of a convertible bond is moresensitive to a rise in the share price than it is toan equivalent drop in the share price. In thisterritory, the payoff is particularly asymmetric andcan be attractive from the investor’s perspective.This effect stems from the fact that the bond’ssensitivity to the share price (known as the delta)is itself dependent on the share price. It increaseswhen the share price rises and decreases whenthe share price falls; in other words, out-of-themoney convertible bonds have a low delta, whilein-the-money convertible bonds have a high delta.The change in sensitivity to the share price isshown by the positive curvature, or convexity, ofthe curve in Figure 1. Convexity is measured interms of gamma, which expresses the absolutechange in the delta (%) when the share pricechanges by 1%.From an investor’s perspective, it is attractive for aconvertible bond to have a high gamma. However,this comes at a price, since the daily loss on thefair value of the embedded option is highest whenthe convertible bond is at the money. In a steadymarket, the daily loss on the option component isgreatest when the gamma is high.In the distressed section, where acomparatively high probability of default exists,the bond floor may collapse.Convertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds9/36
Convertible bonds in detailExample 1The Sika 0.15% 2025convertible bondTable 1 shows the main attributes of the Sika 0.15% 2025convertible bond as they may appear on Bloomberg (“DES”function). Parity refers to the value of the underlying sharesas a percentage of the nominal value. This percentagevalue can be calculated by multiplying the conversion ratioby Sika’s current share price and then dividing by the nominalvalue (96.20 182.35 105.5075 / 20,000 100).The result is the premium, defined as the percentagedifference between the convertible bond price and theparity (21.62 [117 / 96.28 – 1] 100). Another keyfigure is the conversion price. The conversion price isdetermined when the convertible bond is issued by dividingthe nominal value by the conversion rate (189.56 20,000/ 105.5075). If the share price is over CHF 189.56 whenthe convertible bond matures, the conversion into shareswill be worthwhile. If this price is not reached, it is preferablefor the investor to choose a repayment of the nominal valueof CHF 20,000.Table 1: Key terms of the Sika 0.15% 2025 convertible bond as of June 30, 2020In addition to the structure of the convertible bond described above, other aspects such as call and put procedures must be taken into account. A premature call ora missed put deadline may lead to considerable losses.It is therefore essential to know exactly when thesedeadlines are and to take action at the appropriate time.The Sika 0.15% 2025 convertible bond contains anembedded soft call option.TypeSika has a CHF 100 call option on its issued convertiblebonds from July 4, 2023, onward, provided that the parityvalue remains at or above 130% on 20 out of 30 consecutive business days. If the company calls the bonds, theinvestor usually has 30 days to either convert or sell. If thebonds are not converted or sold within that time, the investoryield will be only 100% instead of around 130%. For thisreason, it is important for investors to be aware of theinformation provided in the prospectus.Name of convertible bondIssuerISINPriceYield to maturityCurrencyCountryRankSika 0.15% 2025Sika AG In the case of exchangeable bonds, the investor will receive shares in a different company,not in the issuer.CH0413990240117%/118% Bid and ask prices as a percentage of the nominal value; in some cases, unit prices arealso possible (e.g. French convertible bonds).–3.0%/–3.17% Yield to maturity in percentages; the first value is calculated using the bid price, and thesecond value is calculated using the ask price; negative values may occur due to theoption component.CHF Currency in which the bond is issued; it may differ from the currency of the share.Switzerland Country in which the issuer is domiciled or the country in which the ISIN is registered.Senior unsecured In the event of bankruptcy, senior unsecured debt is given priority over subordinated debt.Coupon0.15%Coupon frequencyAnnualDividend protectionConversion ratioStock tickerParityRatingFixed Fixed and zero coupons are the most common.Above CHF 1.85 All dividend payments in excess of CHF 1.85 lead to an improvement in the conversionratio.105.5075 The number of shares into which the convertible bond can be converted; defined at thetime of issuance. Has already improved since issuance due to dividend payments abovethe threshold of CHF 1.85.SIKA SW Equity Bloomberg ticker for the underlying share.96.20 Stock price conversion ratio / par amount 100A– (S&P)Conversion priceCHF 189.56 Par amount / conversion ratioStock priceCHF 182.35Conversion premiumMaturity dateCallSoft callPut21.6% Price / parity –1 (based on bid price)June 5, 2025None A hard call gives the issuer the right to redeem the bonds prior to maturity (usually at 100%).From July 4, 2023, onward If parity is at least 130% on 20 out of 30 consecutive business days, the issuer may call(soft call trigger: 130%) the bonds at 100% from July 4, 2023, onward. In such cases, the investor still has theright to convert.None A put gives the investor the right to redeem the bonds prior to maturity (usually at 100%).Amount issued/outstandingThis convertible bond was issued to the amount of EUR 500 mn.Min. piece/incrementMinimum amount tradable or minimum increment.Par amountNominal value of the convertible bond in euros.The security mentioned on this page is meant for illustration purposes only and is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell these securities.10/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementConvertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds 11/36
Convertible bonds in detailFactors influencing the price and risks of aconvertible bondThe price of a convertible bond is influenced by anumber of factors. For example, its sensitivity tointerest rate changes or to changes to the issuingcompany’s credit quality stems from the bondcomponent. In addition to the equity marketsensitivity attributable to the option component,there are also other factors connected withderivative valuation, including price volatility of theunderlying stock and the fair value of the option.A convertible bond’s price sensitivity to all of thesefactors changes over time and in response tomarket movements. A convertible bond will behavelike a bond or a stock in different situations, so therisks associated with each convertible bond mustbe assessed individually at any given time and inthe context of the portfolio. The most importantrisk factors related to convertible bonds, the keydata needed to quantify them (measures knownas “Greeks”), and the general risks associated withthis asset class are described below.Equity sensitivityThe more a convertible bond is in the money,the greater the value of the embedded option.The equity sensitivity of convertible bonds of thiskind can be attributed to the comparatively highprobability of a conversion. If the option component is out of the money, equity sensitivity is low.Delta, which is expressed in either absolute orrelative terms, is used to quantify equity sensitivity.In the Sika 0.15% 2025 convertible bond exampleabove, the delta is 0.50 in absolute terms or43% when expressed in relative terms (all keydata based on Bloomberg as of June 30, 2020).This means that if the share price rises by 1%(e.g. from CHF 182.35 to CHF 184.17),the convertible bond will increase in valueby CHF 0.50 (from CHF 117.00 to 117.5012/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset Managementon the bid side and from 118.00 to 118.50on the offer side). In relative terms, a 1% risein the share price results in the convertible bondgaining approximately 0.43%.Bond-specific sensitivityConvertible bonds that are far out of the moneybehave like corporate bonds. When valuingfuture cash flows, interest rate and default risksmust be taken into account. Rho is used as ameasure of the interest rate sensitivity of thebond component of a convertible bond. The rhoof –3.687 for the Sika 0.15% 2025 convertiblebond means that the price of the convertiblebond will fall by 3.687 points if a 1% parallelupward shift in the yield curve occurs. Thedefault risk of a convertible bond is commonlymeasured in terms of the credit risk premium,and the corresponding price sensitivity to thecredit risk premium is expressed using omicron.Option-specific characteristicsIn addition to the factors described above,option-specific factors such as volatility sensitivityand fair value also play a role in valuing a convertible bond. The value of the call option embeddedin a convertible bond rises as the share pricebecomes more volatile because this increasesthe probability that the bondholder will exercisethe conversion option at maturity. Sensitivity tochanges in volatility is greatest for convertible bondsthat are at the money. The Sika convertible bondhas a vega – the relevant risk measurement in thiscase – of 0.768. If the volatility rises by 1%, theprice of the convertible bond will increase by thisamount. The second option-specific characteristic,time sensitivity, is expressed using theta. In theexample above, the theta of the Sika convertiblebond is –0.006. This is the amount by which theprice of the convertible bond falls each day, all otherfactors being equal, due to time value decay.Liquidity riskA convertible bond’s liquidity is another importantaspect to consider, particularly in the event ofsmall issue volumes. Liquidity bottlenecks canlead to a considerable increase in trading costsowing to higher bid-ask spreads, or can evenlead to a suspension of trading in a security.To reduce the risk of liquidity constraints,convertible bond index providers set minimumcriteria in terms of market capitalization, historicaltrading volume, and pricing quality.A prospectus also includes information about theissuer, the bond’s rank, the conversion ratio, anycall and put procedures, and other details regardingtakeover protection, dilution protection, sleepinginvestor clauses, etc. All of these features may behighly relevant in certain circumstances. Call andput conditions, for example, may have a significantinfluence on the pricing of convertible bonds. Theglossary table at the end of this publication providesan overview of the most common terms used in aconvertible bond prospectus.Prospectus riskThe individual structure of a convertible bond isdescribed in its prospectus. A prospectus specifies, for example, when the issuer can call thebond and provides details on call protection andpossible takeover protection. Since such clauseshave a considerable impact on pricing, it is crucialto analyze them carefully before making investment decisions. Contacting an analyst or a brokermay prove helpful in this regard.Early callA company may have the right to redeema convertible bond on certain fixed conditions.This right usually comes into force after a certainamount of time known as the call protectionperiod. After the expiration of the call protectionperiod, the company can redeem the convertiblebond after a notice period that typically lasts30 days. If the call price is lower than the valueof the underlying share, and if the deadline for asale or conversion is missed, the investor in theconvertible bond could incur significant losses.A convertible bond willbehave like a bond or a stockin different situations, so therisks associated with eachconvertible bond must beassessed individually atany given time.Put rights on a convertible bondWhile the company may have call rights,the investor in turn may have put rights relatedto the convertible bond. Put rights allow theinvestor to return the convertible bond at the putprice under certain circumstances. If the convertiblebond is returned early (or “put”) by the investor,the maturity term is brought forward to therelevant put date. If the put date for the convertible bond is missed, the maturity term is extended to the next put date or to the maturity date ofthe bond. This means that the current value ofthe bond component may decrease and, as aresult, so will the price of the convertible bond,as illustrated by the example below.Convertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds 13/36
Convertible bonds in detailExample 2Figure 2 shows the 0.25% convertible bond issued by thepharmaceutical company Teva that is due to mature in 2026.A put date on February 1, 2021, shortens the duration riskto seven months, and the bond floor is at around 97.5%regardless of the elevated credit risk of the issuer (five-yearcredit default swaps: 450 basis points). Since the conversionvalue is nearly worthless with parity standing at 31 as ofJune 30, 2020, the convertible bond trades practically atthe bond floor value. Missing the put in early 2021 mayhave fatal consequences. In such an unfortunate scenario,duration would jump to five years and, assuming that the creditspread remains unchanged, the bond floor and thus the priceof the convertible bond would drop by approximately 20%.The Teva 0.25% 2026convertible bondCurrency riskFinancial securities issued in foreign currenciesare exposed to currency risk. This also applies toconvertible bonds. However, convertible bondsmay also exhibit special features in this respect.In some cases, convertible bonds are issued in adifferent currency than the underlying shares aredenominated. For example, the French energycompany Total’s 0.5% 2022 convertible bond istraded in US dollars and also pays coupons in USdollars. Upon conversion, however, the investorreceives shares of Total traded in euros. Thecurrency exposure of such bonds needs to beassessed separately.Changes in prices of convertible bonds inrelation to the bond floor and parityThe bond floor and parity are of interest not justfrom a theoretical standpoint. They can also beobserved in relation to convertible bonds’ pricemovements. An examination of convertible bondprice movements clearly shows the cushioningeffect of the bond floor and the possibility ofparticipation in the share price increases.The influence of the bond floor on the changingprice of a convertible bond can be seen in theexample of Total (Figures 3 and 4). The company’sshares lost about 56% of their value betweenDecember 31, 2019, and March 18, 2020. Parityvalue fell to nearly 40. However, the bond floorprevented a corresponding drop in the price ofthe convertible bond, limiting it to about 12.7%.This effect can be attributed to the convexity ofthe convertible bond.Figure 2: Teva 0.25% 2026 convertible bond price and parity120%100%Figure 3: Total 0.5% 2022 convertible bond price and parity80%120%60%100%40%80%20%60%2040%20%TEVA 0.25% 01/02/2026 Corp 97.657Parity 1.03.2020202.029201.031.12.2019Source .201930.06.201930.04.2019.20.022831.12.20180%TOTAL 0.50% 02/12/2022 Corp 98.62Parity 66.3596Source BloombergHistorical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of future performance. The securitymentioned on this page is meant for illustration purposes only and is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell thesesecurities.14/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementConvertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds 15/36
Convertible bonds in detailFigure 4: Total 0.5% 2022 convertible bond price, bond floor, and parity (light green closer to December 31, 2020)100%80%A reduction in the share price reduces the equitysensitivity of the convertible bond until it approachesthe bond floor. If the credit spread does notincrease further, the bond floor will remain stable.In this case, the convertible bond price shouldnot have fallen below USD 100. However, thespeed of the correction in Q1 2020 causedmany convertible bonds to trade below theirtheoretical bond floors, as shown in Figure 4.Figure 5 shows the influence of parity on the price ofthe convertible bond issued by the SemiconductorManufacturing International Company (SMIC) basedin Hong Kong. By definition, the parity rises in linewith the share price. Within just 1.5 years, the parityrose from below 60 to nearly 300, resulting in ahefty gain of almost 200% for the convertible bond.It is noteworthy that the equity sensitivity (delta) ofthe convertible bond increases as the parity rises.The Total and SMIC examples show the riskreducing effect of the bond floor and the possibilityof upside participation when the parity rises.Before purchasing a convertible bond, it is alwaysadvisable to examine the gap between the twolower price barriers in order to estimate the risksand opportunities.60%40%40%60%80%100%ParityBond floorSource NomuraFigure 5: SMIC 0% 2022 convertible bond price and 2.228.01.23131.12.20180%SMIZCH 0 07/07/2022 Corp 292.234Parity 292.5397Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of future performance. The security mentioned on this page is meant for illustration purposes only and is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell these securities.16/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementSource BloombergConvertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds 17/36
History and investmentuniverseThe convertible bond market: a historicaloverviewRailroad companies were the first issuers ofconvertible bonds in the nineteenth century.Today, the convertible bond market is globallydiversified and the majority of issuers aremedium-sized and large companies. The USmarket accounts for the lion’s share of the globalconvertible bond universe at just under 65%,followed by Europe (approximately 22%).18/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementDynamically changing universeWhile some issuers repeatedly tap the potential ofthe convertibles market, many companies decideto issue convertible bonds only once or twice. Thismakes the regional and sectoral composition ofthe convertible bond universe more dynamic thanthat of major fixed income and equity indices.Convertible Thebonds:casetheforbestconvertibleof both worldsbonds 19/36
The convertible bond market:a historical overviewFigure 6: Convertible bond universe by sector (in %)Issuing convertible bonds as a type of financingis by no means just a fad. Its history dates backto the nineteenth century, when American railroadcompanies needed capital to finance theirbusiness operations. At that time, the US was arapidly growing economy, similar to the emergingmarkets of today. Capital was not easy to obtainthrough the issuance of shares or bonds. In thefierce competition for capital, another form offinancing proved attractive to companies andinvestors alike: the convertible bond. The right toconvert bonds into shares meant it was possibleto benefit from rising equity prices in the USgrowth market. If the share price failed to rise,investors still had the coupons and the repaymentof their investment.For a long time, the convertible bond market wasregarded as a market for small to medium-sizedcompanies. This perception changed in the 1980swhen IBM, which still had a triple-A credit ratingat that time, financed a company takeover usinga USD 1.25 billion convertible bond issue, thusbenefiting from lower interest payments comparedto those on conventional corporate bonds. Manylarge-cap companies issue convertible bondstoday. The Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond Index,which covers more than half of the total market,includes 80% of large-cap companies.Even though the convertible bond market hasbeen in existence for over a century, globalissuance volume has only really been soaring forthe last 20 years. In terms of its regional breakdown, the US has the largest market share at60% to 70%. Japan, which used to be thesecond-largest issuer, has been overtakensince the 1990s, first by Europe and then byother rapidly growing Asian countries.20/36Credit Suisse InvestmentPartnersAsset ManagementIn February, 2021, the global convertible bondmarket reached a record-high volume of overUSD 490 billion. However, not all of those bondsare liquid enough or have a sufficient volumeto attract a sizable investor community. Indexproviders use various criteria to filter the universeby liq
difference between the convertible bond price and the parity (21.62 [117 / 96.28 - 1] 100). Another key figure is the conversion price. The conversion price is determined when the convertible bond is issued by dividing / 105.5075). If the share price is over CHF 189.56 when the convertible bond matures, the conversion into shares
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