Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018 - SOA

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Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018Our MissionOur VisionWe detect, investigate and understand securityA modern, efficient and responsible security-threats and challenges by collecting and analyzingintelligence agency, suitable to requirements, focusedinformation significant for national security, thuson the accomplishment of its mission andproviding the state leadership and other state bodiesachievement of top results, with a significant nationalwith reliable intelligence support in decision-makinginfluence and impact and a regional reach, recognizedand acting to protect Croatia's national security,by its developed capabilities, excellent employees andinterests and the well-being of its citizens.strong partner ties.

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018ContentsIntroductory remarks . 1SOA . 3The global and European security environments . 7The Republic of Croatia. 12The southeast neighborhood. 16International security and intelligence cooperation . 21Counter Terrorism Group (CTG) . 24APT attacks . 26An example of SOA operation: . 27Big Data . 28Internet trollling. 30Transparency and efficiency . 32A career in SOA . 35

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018IntroductoryremarksDear Readers,Global security issues are becoming increasingly complex and thenumber of challenges and threats has been soaring with rapidit is with distinct pleasure that I present the fifth public report onand unanticipated changes. Reliable intelligence has become thethe work of the Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA). Thepivotal prerequisite for optimal decision-making at national level.objective of the public reports is to inform the public on the stateThis very fact speaks to the importance that SOA has in theof national security under the jurisdiction of SOA and oursystem of national and homeland security.activities in the reporting period.In order to best respond to the dynamics of security challenges,These public reports serve to reconcile two seeminglyalong with daily operative and analytical tasks, we havecontradictory principles. On the one hand, for legal and securitycontinuously invested in the development and modernization ofpurposes, a significant part of our operations must remainour human and technical capabilities. We approach SOAconfidential, while on the other hand, as a responsible statedevelopment in a systematic manner taking a long-term view.authority, we strive to inform citizens of the work we carry out inWe place great emphasis on responsible and prudent financialorder to protect the security, values and interests of the Croatianmanagement and ncinginternationalCroatian citizens invest financial and other resources into SOApartnerships and relations, most notably with NATO and theand we give back by working responsibly and professionally inEuropean Union. International security-intelligence cooperationorder to strengthen the security and the freedom of the Croatianmultiplies our capabilities and allows us a better insight intosociety. We therefore consider it our duty to report Croatiantransnational security threats and challenges. It gives me greatcitizens on our work. I believe that public reports reinforce citizenpleasure to highlight the reputation that SOA enjoys with ourconfidence into our ability to protect national security.international allies and partners, who have recognized us as acompetent, trustworthy and reliable agency.Furthermore, we maintain that the public is entitled to relevantinformation pertaining to challenges that we as a community faceThis public report will inform the public on the Counter Terrorismbecause that allows us to raise security awareness and build upGroup composed of intelligence agencies from 30 Europeanthe capabilities of the society in relation to security challenges.countries, including SOA. The Counter Terrorism Group is one ofthe most prominent international platforms in which SOA takes1

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018part so as to protect both the Croatian national security and thesearching for best candidates willing to take on work for theEuropean security.common good in the protection of all our citizens, in theupcoming decades. Candidates are guaranteed a demanding andFor five years SOA has been organizing the NATO Counterobjective recruitment process, with selection in line with theTerrorism Panel on combating terrorism which bring togetherprinciple of excellence.experts from NATO member states and select partner states. Thisis another indicator of the Agency’s contribution to national andEven though our many successes will never be publicly disclosed,international security and combating terrorism.citizens’ trust is a duty for SOA and it drives us further to giveour best in the protection of national security on a daily basis.Public reports offer us an excellent opportunity to inform theWe bear this in mind as we press on with our responsible tasks,wider public on the impacts of technological advancements onbecause our citizens and our homeland deserve no less.our operations and report on security trends in our field.DirectorFor the purpose of this report we have prepared an overview ofDaniel Markićour activities and a recap of the security status, along withseveral texts that offer a detailed insight into specific topics thataffect security and intelligence. We look deeper into the impactthat new technologies and Big data have on our operations, howthe Internet and social media can be used for hybrid warfare andwe address the transparency of security-intelligence agencies indeveloped democracies. As an agency, we have joined them byreleasing these public reports. We hold that these texts will helpto raise public awareness related to security phenomena, andtherefore facilitate better understanding of our work andchallenges we are facing.This public report is particularly directed at young, competentand educated individuals considering a career in SOA. We haveembarked on a generational renewal of the Agency and we are2

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018SOAprovides intelligencesupport to the stateauthorities andcompetent bodies inefficient and timelydecision-makingSOA role in the national and homeland security systemNational Security Council (UVNS) and the Council provide bothagencies with expert and administrative tasks.The Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) collects and analysesdata that pertains to the national security and reports the findingsGuidelines and reportingto the state authorities. In this manner SOA provides intelligencesupport to the state authorities and competent bodies forSOA operational guidelines and objectives are set forth inefficient and timely decision-making. Using intelligence andstrategic and implantation plans which are the basis for taskanalysis allows SOA to take informed decisions with regard to theplanning, operational activities and reporting on findings to theprotection of the national security, interests and nationals of theend-users.Republic of Croatia.Security-intelligence system in the Republic of CroatiaThe work of the security-intelligence agencies (SOA and VSOA)is directed by the National Security Council (VNS), while theCouncil for the Coordination of Security and Intelligence Agencies(Council) provides operative coordination. The Office of the3Strategic documents which govern SOA operations include therecent National Security Strategy as the umbrella securitystrategy as well as other strategic policy documents such as theNational Strategy for the Prevention and Suppression ofTerrorism and the National Cyber Security Strategy. The National

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018Security Council issues Annual Guidelines that regulate theoperations of security-intelligence agencies.The annual guidelines for security-intelligence agencies for 2018had been aligned with the guidelines laid down in the NationalSecurity Strategy, with particular emphasis on duties of thesecurity-intelligence agencies as part of the Homeland SecuritySystem.SOA reports the end users as stipulated by relevant legislation(state authorities, ministries and other state bodies) on thefindings and assessments that pertain to national security in theform of security-intelligence analysis and data.SOA HQ organizational chartBesides intelligence collection and analysis, SOA carries out othercounterintelligence activities with the purpose of enhancing theSOA new website (www.soa.hr)security framework of the Republic of Croatia; such as securityOversight systemvetting and assessment, protection and security of protectedSOA is authorized to collect intelligence in a number of ways: inSOA is under three tiered external oversight: parliamentaryindividuals, strengthening of the information security anddirect communication with citizens, by requesting access tooversight is carried out by the Croatian Parliament through thepromoting security awareness and culture.official data, using covert measures and procedures, using publicDomestic Policy and National Security Committee, expertsources and international exchange.oversight is carried out by the Office of the National SecurityCouncil, and civilian oversight that is carried out by the CouncilOrganization and authoritiesAny measures of covert intelligence collection that infringe thefor the Civilian Oversight of the Security-Intelligence Activities.SOA operates from the headquarters in Zagreb, with 10 regionalconstitutional rights and freedoms of individuals and citizenscenters across Croatia.must be authorized by the Supreme Court of the Republic ofIn addition to external oversight, SOA has a system of internalCroatia or SOA Director, depending on the type of the measureoversight over the constitutionality and legality of the activitiesimplemented.of all organizational units and employees, data protection andcounterintelligence protection.4

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018activities that threaten national security, i.e. intelligence of particular importance to the national security of the Republic ofProtection of the economic system and suppression oforganized crime and corruption that undermine nationalCroatia.security, Economic and financial processes that affect theeconomic interests and the stability of the Republic ofCroatia, War crimes, detained and missing persons, Counterintelligence protection and security of protectedindividuals, facilities, premises and critical infrastructure.SOA in numbersIn 2018 SOA delivered 511 analytical reports to the stateOrganizational chart of the oversight systemauthorities (the President of the Republic of Croatia, the PrimeMinister, the Speaker of the Croatian Parliament), containingScope of workPursuant to the Security and Intelligence System Act, theNational Security Strategy and Annual Guidelines for SecurityIntelligence Agencies, SOA operations on the territory of theRepublic of Croatia are focused on the prevention of thoseSOA Intelligence cycleAreas of SOA security-intelligence operations: Terrorism and extremism, Foreign intelligence activities that pose threats orchallenges to the values and interests of the Republic ofactivities or actions that may threaten the constitutional orderand undermine security of the state bodies, the citizens, the590450511320Croatia,national interests and the national security. Moreover, SOA collects, analyses, processes and assesses intelligence relating to foreign states, organizations, political andsecurity-intelligence analysis and data.Processes in the security environment that impact theRepublic of Croatia and its interests,Global processes, security and challenges affecting the2015.2016.2017.2018.Republic of Croatia and its interests,Indicative number of security-intelligence delivered to the stateleadership, by yearseconomic alliances, groups and individuals, namely those thatpoint to intentions, capabilities, covert plans and clandestine5

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018The substantial volume of analytical work is an indicator of effortsin intelligence collection, but it also reflects the complexity of the5670Security issues pertaining to foreign nationals and citizenship67165490security situation.5730procedures have been increasingly using up SOA capabilities,most significantly in relation to asylum seekers. Such operationsare expected to grow in the ensuing periods, due to generalAs an integral part of the national security system, SOAmigration trends.cooperates and delivers intelligence and security assessments toother competent authorities (Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of65356Foreign and European Affairs, the State Attorney’s Office,Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Economy etc.). In 2018 livered approximately 12,600 various pieces of securityintelligence to other state authorities.1350012500Number of security vetting procedures, by years1260010500Throughout 2018, 541 security assessments were delivered,related to the movement and residence of protected facilities.Approximately 24,000 security screenings were performed inconnection with individuals with direct access to protected2015.2016.individuals, facilities and e number of security-intelligence delivered to end users, byyearsIn 2018 SOA performed 5730 security vetting procedures in thecontext of preventive operations and enhancing informationsecurity (including basic security screenings and those with thepurpose of granting access to classified data). Additionally, SOA2015.2016.2017.2018.Number of security assessments, by yearscarries out security screenings of legal entities.6Number of security vetting procedures related to regulating statusissues of foreign nationals and citizenship procedures, by years

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018The global andEuropeansecurityenvironmentshave been characterized bygeopolitical rivalry andrapidly changingcircumstancesGlobal security trendsrelations. The United States have consistently pursued a foreignpolicy based on a new concept of economic and securityThe global security environment is characterized by numerousinterests, while reviewing their trade relations with China. The USdynamic challenges in the light of rapid unpredictable changes.have insisted on further investments in NATO’s deterrenceGlobalization and interdependence of the global economy arisingcapabilities. Russia has set out to enhance its military, energyfrom the development of new technologies and communicationand economic global presence, while China has pursued globalchannels have accelerated all societal processes. Internet’s roleeconomic ambitions. Apart from state actors, emerging non-stateas a catalyst in the formation and support of societal and securityactors have been adding to the complexity of the global securityprocesses worldwide has been gaining prominence.outlook and have been affecting global processes.Geopolitical and economic rivalries can to a large extent beattributed to a global shift and redistribution in the global powerarena. They shape regional and local security processes,including the European and Croatian security as well as thesecurity situation in Croatian neighborhood.In the framework of geopolitical rivalries, security interests ofstates have been underscored by their needs for expansion orcontainment of spheres of influence and values. Protection ofGlobal security conditions have been developing against theeconomic interests, securing access to valuable resources suchbackdrop of geopolitical and economic rivalries between theas water, food, energy, communications, and most importantlygreat powers coupled with inter-state tensions and conflicts asnew technologies and industries, have also informed securitywell as lengthy intra-state conflicts which in return replicate thoseinterests.geopolitical rivalries. International mechanisms and agreementsthat had been put into place in the aftermath of the Second WorldGlobal security is affected by a variety of other factors such asWar and disarmament agreements have been under increasingclimate change, sharp population growth in underdevelopedpressure. Multilateralism has continued to decline with non-countries, population decline in developed countries, unevenWestern actors strengthening their presence in internationalaccess to resources and poverty.7

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018All of those factors consequently lead to intra-state and regionalA particularly sensitive area of cyber security is related to theemergence of radicalism and terrorism in European societies,conflicts, mass migration, terrorism, social unrest, institutionaltheft of classified, personal and other sensitive data. Thediscussions on the Common European Asylum System andcollapse in declining states, outbreaks of communicable diseasescapability of cyber attackers to cause casualties and substantialstrengthening external borders, issues of energy security,and other security challenges.material damage in the physical world has been on the rise.dissemination of misleading and fake news, cyber attacks andEqually, the likelihood of interfering with social and democraticcybercrime.Contemporary international conflicts increasingly involve the useprocesses through dissemination of misinformation and fakeof unarmed tactics employing soft war in inter-state conflictsnews has been growing.Simultaneously, the EU has been experiencing an internalcharacterized by low intensity of military operations with use ofreshuffle, in the context of Brexit combined with a growth of anti-a wide spectrum of means such as diplomatic, information, mediasystemic and Eurosceptic parties and movements.and other hybrid warfare activities. Therefore, a significant partof inter-state conflicts has moved into the information and cyberThe EU has borne consequences of global geopolitical tensionssphere.across a variety of societal and security issues, most notably interms of deteriorating relations between the West and Russia,At the same time, ICT development has allowed unprecedentedwhich have been reminiscent of the Cold War era. A number ofopportunities - connecting the world with new technologies isissues remains open; transatlantic partnership, relations withcreating emergent industries and opportunities for globalRussia, China and Iran as well as the issue of stabilization of crisisdevelopment. While there are positive aspects to thesehot spots in the wider European environment e.g. Syria andprocesses, they simultaneously breed new security risks andLibya. Reducing migration pressures in the south and south-eastchallenges. This is particularly striking in the development of 5GICT has been misused for radicalization and dissemination oftechnologies, AI and the Internet of things.extremist ideas which can lead to violence and terrorism.Societies and individuals have become dependent on ICT whichhas rendered them vulnerable to cyber attacks and cybercrime.Cyber attacks and cyber manipulations have become a part ofLikewise, it is also used as a tool in terrorist recruitment andEurope remains a substantial challenge before the EU.The EU is aiming to build up its energy security, and one of theattack planning.most important factors of that security is the reliability of naturalEuropean security, EU and NATOthe EU is supplied from Russia, with the EU being the largestgas supply. Roughly 40% of the total natural gas consumption indaily experience. There are numerous possibilities for attackersmarket for Russian gas. Certain Eastern EU member state relyto remain anonymous and even to carry out secret attacks.Croatian wider security environment is dynamic and challenging.entirely on Russian gas. The EU is looking to advance theGeographicalbyThe European Union (EU), as a broader framework within whichdiversification of sources and supply routes. In this respect, LNGunlimited communication possibilities allows the evidence to bethe Republic of Croatia acts, has been facing a series of internalterminals serve as one possible option of diversification. The EUeasily concealed.and external security challenges. In particular, they pertain to theandorganizationaldispersionfacilitated8

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018therefore considers LNG projects in the Baltics and SE Europe aswith active participation of the Republic of Croatia. NATO hasof reinforcing relations with members of the Commonwealth ofthose of common interests.been working on combating terrorism, dealing with cyber attacksIndependent States, which it has regarded a sphere of influenceand hybrid threats. Member states have launched a discussionand has maintained presence in crisis hot spots such as Syria.on the issue of the cost-sharing formula and increasing budgetaryprovisions for defense. At the same time, the EU has beenThe EU has imposed sanctions on Russia since 2014 in responsestriving to strengthen its security and defense dimension whileto Russian intervention in the crisis in Ukraine and the annexationenhancing the cooperation with NATO.of Crimea. EU and NATO relations with Russia have furtherdeteriorated following the Sergej Skripal poisoning case in theUK. The Republic of Croatia has participated in the coordinatedresponse of the majority NATO and EU member states byexpelling one Russian diplomat from the Russian Embassy inZagreb. In the concentrated blow of 29 states and NATO allies,a total of 153 Russian diplomats have been expelled.North European gas pipeline - plan and realizationSE Europe gas supply diversification includes the Republic ofCroatia through the LNG terminal project on Krk, which has asignificant strategic potential for strengthening European energyindependence and security.In the fallout of the Ukrainian crisis and conflict along with theCrimean annexation, NATO has increased efforts in enhancingdeterrence and defense capabilities. NATO has enhanced itsforward presence in the eastern part of the Alliance since 2017,Russian-Western relations have been marred by a variety ofissues such as the Russian annexation of Crimea, indications ofRussian interference in democratic processes in the West,election interference, dissemination of fake news and cyberattacks.Following President Putin’s re-election, Russia has maintained thecontinuity of the existing foreign and domestic policies;attempting to contain NATO and EU expansions, curbing theirinfluence in East and SE Europe while exerting greater influenceon the continent. Russia has continuously engaged in the policy9The British police release photographs of two Russian nationalsnamed as suspects in the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018Instability belt around EuropeMajor events in the civil war in Syria in 2018 included the collapsethe Internet and social media, as a means of planning attacks,of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), expansion of the Damascus-dissemination of terrorist ideology, recruitment and supporterA belt of instability that encircles Europe from the south andgovernment controlled territory in the southwest, Kurdish forcestraining. It is expected that this mode of operation will continuepenetrates the continent from the east continues to generate theadvances in the northeast and Turkish military intervention in thein the future and that new ways of technology misuse for themost significant challenge to European security. The belt extendsnorthwest. Since the outbreak, the conflict in Syria has drawn inpurpose of terrorist activities and organization of terrorist attacksthroughout North Africa, across the Middle East, the Caucasusmultiple global and regional powers such as Iran, both politicallywill be consistently explored.and Central Asia to Ukraine. This area has been characterized byand military.ISIS and Al-Qaeda remain the two most significant terroristnumerous armed conflicts and tensions, terrorist groups, crisishot spots and frozen conflicts, as well as widespread poverty andActive crisis hot-spots have remained in Yemen, Libya,threats on the global level. On the back of defeats in Syria andrise of radicalism and extremism.Afghanistan and Iraq, together with permanent incidents arisingIraq, ISIS has been seeking a way to survive and has used newfrom the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.terrorist attacks as a way of demonstrating its operationalcapabilities.The security situation in East Ukraine has remained unstable.Despite diplomatic efforts, there has been little significantAlthough ISIS has recently proven to be more successful inprogress in the implementation of the Minsk Agreement.recruitment of new supporters and in organization of terroristattacks, Al-Qaeda remains a severe threat to the European andTerrorism threat to Europethe global security.Terrorism is still the most prominent and the most visible threatIn 2018 nine terrorist attacks were registered (four in France,to the international security and the security of European citizens.two in Great Britain, and one in Belgium, the Netherlands andSpain), carried out by individual attackers on randomly selectedAs such, the belt has been a long-term source of various securitychallenges and threats to the continent such as terrorism, illegalmigrations, proliferation of WMD, organized crime, extremism,crisis hot spots and armed conflicts.Terrorists continue to demonstrate readiness and capabilitiestargets using widely accessible weapons. In Europe, 33 terroristnecessary to carry out the most brutal forms of attacks on softattacks were carried out in 2017. The highest death toll wastargets with high potential for casualties. These mostly includerecorded in Great Britain (35), followed by Spain (16), Swedenunprotected public facilities with a large density of people such(5) and France (3).as promenades, shopping malls, promenades. Terrorists areprompted to use improvised means in attacks, such as knives,The decrease in the number of terrorist attacks is a result of moremotor or heavy vehicles. In doing so, terrorist cells are proficientefficient efforts of European security-intelligence systems and theusers of contemporary communication technologies, specificallyfall of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, which significantly diminished ISIS10

Securitiy-Intelligence Agency 2018Ilegal migrations towards Europeattack planning and execution capabilities. In 2017 1,219Nearly 5000 individuals from Europe have participated in conflictsindividuals across 18 EU member states were apprehended onin Syria/Iraq, fighting for Islamic terrorist groups. Roughly 1000terrorism charges.individuals from Croatian southeast neighborhood had left forThe trend of migration from Middle East and Africa towardsSyria and Iraq. Of the total number of foreign fighters, one thirdEurope has continued on all Mediterranean routes, although thehas already repatriated, while a quarter have lost their lives. Theirvolume has decreased. In 2018 the total migration flow intensityrepatriation poses a significant security risk for Europeantowards the EU decreased by about 25% year-on-year, primarilysocieties and highlights the need for de-radicalization programs.due to a reduction in the number of migrants on the centralMediterranean route leading from Libya to Italy. This decreaseThis is especially pertinent for children of returning fighters whostems from tightened Italian measures and agreements withhad been exposed to terrorist indoctrination and military trainingLibya. However, at the same time, the intensity of migration flowsin areas under ISIS control, and had in certain cases, participatedin the West Mediterranean route towards Spain has doubled,in war crimes. Another distinct challenge comes from prisonwhile the migration flows towards the so-called Balkan route haveradicalization, where offenders who had been convicted ofgrown by a third, as most migrants attempt to cross the Croatianterrorist crimes in their home countries engage in grooming andterritory in order to illegally make their way to Western Europe.radicalization of other convicts.The Balkan route has become exceedingly attractive fororganized crime groups engaged in migrant trafficking.Repatriation flows of ISIS JihadistsWhile the risk of terrorism remains high in Western Europe andmedium in Croatian south-east neighborhood, in the Republic ofCroatia is has remained low. In addition to returning ISISJihadists, currently the most prominent threats to Europeanstates arise from domestic Islamist terrorist cells and individuals.In the aftermath of ISIS defeat and loss of territory, thousandsof foreign fighters and their families have been seeking to eitherrelocate to other crisis hot spots or to return to their homeISIS used children to carry out liquidations of prisonerscountries.Overland and maritime routes of illegal migrations towards Europe11

Security-Intelligence Agency 2018The Republicof CroatiaThe security situation in Croatia is stable and there are currentlynot have to be directly associated with terrorist organizations,no indications or visible possibilities of wider destabilization.and they can become self-radicalized on

Domestic Policy and National Security Committee, expert oversight is carried out by the Office of the National Security Council, and civilian oversight that is carried out by the Council for the Civilian Oversight of the Security-Intelligence Activities. In addition to external oversight, SOA has a system of internal

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