GRAFTON STREET - Knight Frank
RESEARCHGRAFTONSTREETMARKET ANALYSIS 2016TRENDSANALYSISOUTLOOK
GRAFTON STREET MARKET ANALYSIS 2016SUMMARY1. Robust economic growthis driving retail sales onGrafton Street2. Zone A Grafton Street rentsnow in the order of 6,500 psm3. The lack of space on GraftonStreet is driving occupierdemand for space on adjoiningstreets, especially fromlarge retailers4. Strong investor appetite has biddown yields to 3.5%, down froma post-crisis peak of 6.5%5. Grafton Street and its environsare seeing a wave of capitalexpenditure with a numberof refurbishments andredevelopments ongoingRESEARCHGRAFTON STREETIntroductionGrafton Street is Ireland’s premier retaildestination with a footfall of 57 million perannum. Linking St. Stephen’s Green withCollege Green in Dublin’s South CityCentre, the thoroughfare, which waspedestrianised in 1982, contains 91 retailunits with department stores BrownThomas and Marks and Spencer anchoringthe street. International brands with apresence on the street include TommyHilfiger, Massimo Dutti and Hugo Boss,while the shopping centres of St.Stephen’s Green, Powerscourt and RoyalHibernia Way also bring footfall to the area.EconomyThe Irish retail property market isbenefiting from the ongoing recovery inthe economy, with decliningunemployment and a return to earningsinflation translating into increased retailspend. Unemployment fell to 7.9% inSeptember, down from a post-crisis peakof 15.1% recorded in February 2012, withemployment levels now above two millionfor the first time since 2008.inflation re-emerge since Q1 2014, withaverage weekly earnings increasing by0.5% in the year to Q2 2016. The growthin average weekly earnings is primarilybeing driven by private sector wagegrowth, which increased by 1.5% overthe same period.Motor sales – a key barometer ofconsumer confidence – have risen by10.2% in the year to August according tothe Central Statistics Office (CSO).However, the retail recovery has beenbroad based with the volume of retailsales excluding motors sales increasingby 4.1% over the same period. As a resultof the falling unemployment rate andpositive wage growth, personalconsumption is now playing a greaterrole in Ireland’s economic recovery,which was previously driven byinvestment and exports.This feel good factor led to the ESRI/KBCBank Consumer Sentiment Index hittinga 10-year high earlier this year, althoughthe Index has since retreated slightly dueto the mixed Irish election result and thelargely unanticipated decision by theUnited Kingdom to leave the EuropeanUnion. However, while the Index pared3.8% in July following the Brexit vote,it has since recovered much of this lossas the severity of the economic shockhas so far turned out to be less thaninitially feared.Unemployment is forecast to continueto fall with the Economic, Social andResearch Institute (ESRI) forecastingthat 46,000 new jobs will have beencreated by year-end 2016. The decliningunemployment rate has seen wageAside from political developments, theother major challenge facing high streetretail is the rise of e-commerce, theimplications of which are still challengingthe traditional bricks and mortar retailmarket. Interestingly, prime high streetretail is benefiting from internet shoppingas these stores become showrooms forthe leading brands to display theirmerchandise, with shoppers purchasingon-line at a later date.With the vacancy rate essentially at zero,occupiers are bidding strongly to get afoothold on the street which has led toZone A rents growing by 25% over thepast year alone to now stand at 6,500psm. However, unlike the office andresidential sectors – where rents are nearpre-crisis highs – prime retail rents stilltrade at values that remain significantlybelow their pre-crisis peaks indicatingthat there is plenty of scope for furtherrental growth in the coming years.The lack of space on Grafton Street isincreasing occupier activity in thesurrounding areas, particularly amongstlarger retailers for whom the smallfloorplates on Grafton Street act as afurther limiting factor. Examples includeH&M and Abercrombie & Fitch locatingon streets just off Grafton Street. Thisactivity has resulted in Grafton Streetbecoming the focal point of an everexpanding retailing hotspot whichextends beyond the street itself.Occupier marketGrafton Street is experiencing asignificant rebound in occupier interestwith a number of prominent internationalretailers establishing on the street. Forexample, Victoria’s Secret have let 2,152sq m, of which 505 sq m is located on theground floor, at 28-29 Grafton Streetwhere they will pay a Zone A rentof 6,400 psm. Other recent deals ofnote include Dune London’s letting of No.69 and & Other Stories pre-let of thenewly redeveloped No. 26-27.Meanwhile, L’Oréal owned Urban Decayare reported to be taking a sub-lease at50 Grafton Street which will helpstrengthen the southern end of the streetwhile IPUT are currently marketing 72Grafton - which is undergoing a highspec redevelopment - for a quotingZone A rent of 7,500 psm.FIGURE 2Grafton Street Zone A Rents (sq m/yr) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 02006200720082009201020112012201320142015Q3 2016Source: Knight Frank ResearchFIGURE 1Retail Sales Index (Excluding fuel, motor and bar : CSO200620032005200280ARE200 STILL AT THE EARLYSTAGESOF THEIR RECOVERY.1002001ValueVolume2000903
GRAFTON STREET MARKET ANALYSIS 2016RESEARCHGRAFTON STREET1 Project KellsKeyLettingsSalesPlanned redevelopmentsLuas Cross City LineSOUTH WILLIAM STREETH&MCHATHAM ROW1 69 Grafton StSUFFOLK STRWEETSTREETKCATH KIDSTONINTERIOR DECORATORSGuide price: 27,000,000Yield: NIY 4.95%Note: Consists of 7,131 sq m ofcommercial space.8 One Clarendon Row /Chatham CourtSale price: 41,000,000Yield: NIY 4.34%Sold: Q2 2014Buyer: LonestarNote: Lonestar have submitted an appealto develop retail on the ground floor withoffices above.9 57-58 Grafton StSTREE1TLANEROYAL Hibernian WAYdEVELOPMENT AREA6 Royal Hibernian WaySale price: 32,000,000Yield: NIY 4.19%Sold: Q2 2016Buyer: Friends First7 Project MadridNASSAU STREET2DUKE65 The Grafton CollectionNote: Planning permission has beenlodged for a substantial development toinclude retail and mixed-use units.PROJECT KELLSLANEDUKEDUKER BANVODAFONETELEPHONENGBURGER KIF/FD REST ISWAROVSKGIFTSBUSSTOPCTN3ULSTELANDRIVER ISSWEARENAND MORS)LADIES(3 RETAIL FLOANKSOFFICE SHOEATTERSHEALTH M ODHEALTH FO FAST FOOD EAFD’SCCAFE CMCDONALANT & MRESTAURHEMISTBOOTS CNESPRESSODOMESTICAPPLIANCES4 85-86 Grafton StSale price: 17,670,000Yield: NIY 2.61% (EY 3.40%)Sold: Q3 2015Buyer: Irish LifeNote: Consists of 2,362 sq m ofcommercial space including 414 sq mof office space.BANKOF IRELAND)UTHOREET SANN STSTREETLOUISFERAUDMENSWEARIFLFIGERTOMMY H MENS WEARLADIES &HICKEYSCHEMISTAIBBTHE BODY SHOPHLTH & BEAUTYENCERMARKS & SPOREVARIETY ST OORS)(4 RETAIL FL5WREWELLWEIR J FLOORS)IL(3 RETABROWN THOMASDEPARTMENT STOREPANDORAJEWELLERCLARKS SHOESALDO SHOESDIESCLAIRE’S LAIESACCESSORLEPHONESMETEOR TEPA SHOESCARL SCARORIES& OTHER ST4PAMELA SCOTT LADIESWEAR(2 RETAIL FLOORS)SPACE NK APOTHECARYHEALTH AND BEAUTYFIELDS JEWELLERMOLTON BROWNHEALTH AND BEAUTYLEMON3H SOORSRETAIL FLSHOP)THING (3BT 2 CLO RBUCKS COFFEEAND STACARD GALLERYTHE LOFT CAFEJOHNBRERETONJEWELLERTHOMAS PATRICK SHOESHMV RECORDINGSFITZPATRICKS SHOESHOLLAND AND BARRETTHEALTHFOODPETER MARKHAIIRDRESSINGROCKSJEWELLER2Sale price: 34,000,000Yield: NIY 4.50% (EY 3.06%)Sold: Q2 2016Buyer: The Brennan FamilyGuide price: 40,000,000Yield: NIY 4.62%4BOODLESJEWELLERGRAFTON STREETHARRY STREETDUNEPERMANENTTSB BANKHUGO BOSS1SEASONSOF IRELANDAMGINOS I/CREPARLOURWELLERPANDORA JEOKSDUBRAY BO OORS)(2 RETAIL FLGIFTSCARROLLSELEVI’S STOR NS WEARLADIE AND ME4MASSIMO DUTTINote: The property is fullyrefurbished. Total refurbishmentspend amounted to 5,000,000.EETBrown ThomasMONSOON LADIES WEAR4 26-27 Grafton StDate: Q3 2015Tenant: & Other StoriesOwner: Aviva InvestorsAccommodation:878 sq m including 216 sq mat ground floorRent: 925,000 paZone A: 5,500 psm10STREETNote: The property is currentlybeing refurbished to the value of 10,500,000.BUTLERSCONF & BISDON STRCHATHAMDate: Q2 2016Tenant: Victoria’s SecretOwner: IPUTAccommodation:2,512 sq m over 5 levelsincluding 505 sq m atground floorRent: 1,850,000 paZone A: 6,889 psmENTGINOSI/CREAMPARLR & C MCCORMACKJEWELLERCLARENNGBURGER KI RESTAURANTFAST FOODODSSPORTS GOCHAMPIONRS)RETAIL FLOOENSWEAR (2TOPMAN MRMENS WEALADIES ANDTED BAKER OORS)(2 RETAIL FLHINGONLY CLOTGOODSER SPORTSFOOT LOCK&VANS LADIESRMENS WEAESTHREE TELEPHONOESO SHECC FONE SEAVOD EPHON NVTEL DIS COLON RESTOVAC3 28-29 Grafton StCAMERA CENTREPHOTO GDSSWATCH JEWELLERDUNNESSTORESCLOTHINGBUSSTOPCTNSPOR9THEREY STODISNE& GAMESTOYSEARIES WY LADSISLETYLELIFES OODSTS GStephen’s greenshopping centreKING STREET SOUTHNote: The property is currentlybeing redeveloped to the value of 1,750,000.8Estmated sale price: 30,400,000Yield: NIY 2.61% (EY 3.40%)Sold: Q3 2015Buyer: Irish Life3 13-14 Grafton StCHATHAM STREETDevelopmentarea2 72 Grafton StDue date: Q4 2016Tenant: Pre-let negotiationsongoingOwner: IPUTAccommodation:866 sq mQuoting rent: 7,500 psmProject MadridDevelopmentareaNote: Planning approval sought to create7,432 sq m of retail space and 9,290 sq mof office space.2 9-11 Grafton StPOWERSCOURTSHOPPINGCENTREWICKLODate: Q4 2015Tenant: Dune LondonOwner: IPUTAccommodation:211 sq m over 2 levels including98 sq m at ground floorRent: 337,500 paZone A: 5,700 psm7Sale price: 93,000,000Yield: NIY 3.60%Sold: Q2 2016Buyer: Meyer Bergman/BCPSale price: 19,470,000Yield: NIY 3.37% (EY 3.50%)Sold: Q3 2015Buyer: Irish Life10 50 Grafton StEETN STRODAWSSale price: 6,750,000Yield: 5.39%Sold: Q3 2016Buyer: Irish Life5
GRAFTON STREET MARKET ANALYSIS 2016RESEARCHInvestment“ Irish Life, alreadyone of the largestproperty ownerson the street,further cementedits interest in thestreet in Q3 withthe purchase of50 Grafton Street.”Investors, keen to get into the market at theearly stages of the rental recovery, havebid Grafton Street yields down to 3.50% inQ3, down from 4.00% at the same periodlast year. The main obstacle for buyerslooking to make this play is the lack ofproduct now coming to market withlong-term Irish institutional investorshaving substantial holdings on the street.Irish Life, already one of the largest propertyowners on the street, further cemented itsinterest in the street in Q3 with the purchaseof 50 Grafton Street for 6.75 millionrepresenting a net initial yield of 5.39%.This added to the acquisitions they made in2015 which comprised of the SovereignPortfolio – which included 7-11 and 85-86Grafton Street – and the Lifestyle Sportstenanted 57-58 Grafton Street.Significant investment sales currently onthe market include the GraftonCollection, which incorporates asubstantial retail block on the corner ofGrafton Street and Duke Street. Guiding 40.0 million to give a yield of 4.62%, theproperty is attracting interest fromnational and international investors.In addition, Knight Frank are marketingthe ‘Madrid Portfolio’, a 7,100 sq m retailfocused portfolio located on the fastappreciating streets directly to the west ofGrafton Street, for 27.0 million. With aFIGURE 3Grafton Street YieldsRENTS8%7%6%5%4%3%2%WAULT of 4.56 years, the sale representsthe opportunity for investors to gainexposure to the Grafton Street area rentalappreciation story with futureredevelopment potential.1%0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q32016Source: Knight Frank3.50%YIELDS DOWN IN Q3,DOWN FROM 4.00%AT SAME PERIODLAST YEAR.6DevelopmentGrafton Street and its environs are seeinga wave of capital expenditure, with anumber of high-profile refurbishments andredevelopments ongoing.For example, luxury department storeBrown Thomas has recently completed a 20.0 million upgrade and reconfigurationof its landmark premises including spending 1.5 million on restoring the façade.Institutional investors have also beenactive as illustrated by theaforementioned redevelopment of 26-27Grafton Street by Aviva Investors andIPUT’s redevelopment of the formerKaren Millen store at 72 Grafton Street.Irish Life are also thought to beexamining the feasibility of amalgamatingfour adjoining units on Grafton Street,namely No. 47-50, in order to address theshortage of large floorplates on thestreet. The company has seen theadvantages of this strategy havingpurchased 57-58 Grafton Street last year,which underwent an amalgamation priorto sale by vendor Nama.A number of developers and investorsare currently working on takingadvantage of the demand frominternational retailers for large floorplatesthrough a number of redevelopmentprojects on the streets surroundingGrafton Street. For example, Lone Starare appealing to An Bord Pleanála toallow for a mixed-use scheme onChatham Street, just off Grafton Street.The redevelopment will feature a numberof retail units and will back onto LoneStar’s existing South King Streetdevelopment, where tenants include H&Mand Zara. Lone Star acquired the SouthKing Street development in 2014 afterpurchasing loans from IBRC and assetsfrom Chartered Land. Following on fromtheir purchase of Project Kells for 92.0million earlier in the year, London investorsMeyer Bergman and BCP InternationalProperty Fund are seeking planningapproval for 7,400 sq m of retail space and9,300 sq m of office space at the corner ofDawson Street and Nassau Street.In addition, following their acquisition ofthe remaining 50% stake in Royal HiberniaWay in Q2 of this year, Friends First havesubmitted plans which will see asubstantial upgrading of the shoppingarcade. The thoroughfare is expected tobenefit greatly as a hop off point forGrafton Street when the new Luas stop onDawson Street opens next year.Construction work has also commencedon Green REIT’s One Molesworthwhich will consist of 2,137 sq m of retailfacilities at ground and lower groundlevels. Retail in the area will benefit fromthe footfall derived from the officeredevelopments that are currently ongoingon Molesworth Street and which willhouse over 2,000 office employees whencompleted.Finally, having acquired a 35.4% stakein St. Stephen’s shopping Centre in late2015 for 60.0 million, MadisonInternational Realty and their partnersare expected to shortly begin spending 30.0 million upgrading and reconfiguringthe 30,000 sq m shopping centre whichwill further cement the long-termattractiveness of the Grafton Street area.7
CAPITAL MARKETS/RETAILAdrian Trueick, Director 353 1 634 2466adrian.trueick@ie.knightfrank.comPeter Flanagan, Director 353 1 634 2466peter.flanagan@ie.knightfrank.comRoss Fogarty, Director 353 1 634 2466ross.fogarty@ie.knightfrank.comJohn Ring, Investment Analyst 353 1 634 2466john.ring@ie.knightfrank.comShaun Collins, Graduate Surveyor 353 1 634 2466shaun.collins@ie.knightfrank.comRobert O’Connor, Research Analyst 353 1 634 2466robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight FrankRECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONSRESEARCHINVESTMENT INSIGHTDUBLINOFFICE MARKET OVERVIEWQ2 2016DUBLINRESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSISFOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS2016THE 2017 REPORTThe Future Of Real EstateIn The World’s Leading CitiesTRENDS2016 New HomesConstruction SurveyANALYSISOCCUPIER TRENDSOUTLOOKDublin ResidentialMarket Analysis 2016Global Cities 2017Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/ResearchINVESTMENT TRENDSMARKET OUTLOOKDublin Office MarketOverview Q2 2016This report is published for general information only and not tobe relied upon in any way. Although high standards have beenused in the preparation of the information, analysis, viewsand projections presented in this report, no responsibility orliability whatsoever can be accepted by HT Meagher O’Reillytrading as Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultantfrom any use of, reliance on or reference to the contentsof this document. As a general report, this material doesnot necessarily represent the view of HT Meagher O’Reillytrading as Knight Frank in relation to particular propertiesor projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in partis not allowed without prior written approval of HT MeagherO’Reilly trading as Knight Frank to the form and contentwithin which it appears. HT Meagher O’Reilly trading asKnight Frank, Registered in Ireland No. 385044, PSR Reg.No. 001266. HT Meagher O’Reilly New Homes Limited tradingas Knight Frank, Registered in Ireland No. 428289, PSRReg. No. 001880. Registered Office – 20-21 Upper PembrokeStreet, Dublin 2.
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appropriate Standard Operating Procedures and Standard Operating Guidelines to be able to respond to all calls for service. Page 6 of 6 Fire Prevention . the size, ability and training of the Grafton Fire Department as it relates to departments of similar size Facilities & Apparatus
