TASMANIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE
TA S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R ESubmission to the Draft Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action PlanPrepared by the Tasmanian Policy ExchangeSeptember 2020
AcknowledgementsThis submission has been prepared by the Tasmanian Policy Exchange (TPE) at the University ofTasmania. The TPE has been established to enable the University of Tasmania to make timely and informedcontributions to key policy debates occurring in Tasmania thus making a positive contribution to thefuture of our state and its people. This submission provides an assessment of Tasmania’s renewableenergy future and the policies and strategies which should be considered in order to maximise thelong-term benefits for the Tasmanian community.The TPE is grateful to the many researchers and staff across the University who contributed their timeand expertise to the preparation of this submission.Contributing AuthorsNagi AbdussamieFrancisco Ascui Jason ByrneRichard Eccleston Clarissa ForsterEvan Franklin Moya Fyfe Fred Gale Jean-Roch NaderBen ParrIrene PenesisCorey PetersonMiles SmithElaine StratfordPhillipa WatsonMark WhiteOliver GalesVikram GaraniyaVeryan Hann Matthew HarrisonMark HemerSarah HyslopHeather LovellGregor MacfarlaneT A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0 3
Executive SummaryThis submission has been prepared as a contribution to the developmentof the Draft Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action Plan 2020 (TREAP). Theanalysis responds to the specific questions posed in the TREAP while alsooutlining a wider range of options which could be considered as part of abroader energy and emissions strategy. The overall aim of the Action Planshould be to develop an advanced and sustainable energy system whichdelivers long-term economic, social and environmental benefits to theTasmanian community while making a significant contribution to reducinggreenhouse gas emissions nationally. It is an opportunity for Tasmaniato provide leadership in relation to one of the most significant globalchallenges of our age.Given the need to decarbonise electricity generation and energy systemsmore broadly this submission supports the TREAP target of doublingrenewable energy generation in Tasmania by 2040. Doubling Tasmania’srenewable energy generation over the next 20 years is an importantgoal but more can be done to manage risks associated with the TREAPand maximise the long-term benefits for the Tasmanian community.Specifically, this submission identifies four key issues which require furtherconsideration during the development of the Action Plan:1. Identify and address the potential risks associated with the TREAPInitiatives within the TREAP have the potential to unlock over 7 billionin investment and create up to 4,000 direct jobs at the peak of theconstruction phase. This represents a significant opportunity for Tasmania,but we must continue to analyse, acknowledge and address the financial,social and environmental risks associated with significantly increasingrenewable electricity generation and interconnection with the NationalEnergy Market (NEM).2. Maximise and promote the long-term benefits of the TREAP forTasmaniaWe must ensure that communities, both those directly involved inrenewable energy projects and Tasmania as a whole, enjoy long-termbenefits from increased investment in renewable energy projects.Providing training to maximise local employment in the industry willenable communities to work in and benefit from the expansion of theenergy sector. Engaging with communities and responding to their needsand concerns in a consistent and coordinated manner will also be criticallyimportant for securing community support.3. Use increased renewable energy generation to develop new lowcarbon industriesThe TREAP and the further development of Tasmania’s renewable energyassets should be regarded as a foundation for Tasmania’s transition to asustainable low-carbon economy or ‘climate positive’ economy. Tasmaniais already on the cusp of meeting its on-island needs from renewablesources and now should use this resource to phase out fossil fuel usein transport, heating and industrial applications. The Action Plan shouldbe complemented by a comprehensive strategy to promote Tasmania’sworld leading emissions profile and increase investment and innovation inemerging low carbon industries to deliver long-term, state-wide benefits.4. Develop Tasmania’s ‘brand’ as a sustainable, innovative, lowcarbon economyPursuing a world-leading target for renewable energy production andestablishing an innovative and prosperous low-carbon economy willalso deliver benefits beyond energy intensive industries. If we can buildand promote a renewable energy and low carbon ‘brand’ it will benefitexporters and help attract visitors whether they be tourists, students
Executive Summaryor migrants wanting to make Tasmania their new home. Above all, awidely shared vision which delivers both environmental dividends andsustainable employment and economic growth will deliver long-termbenefits to the Tasmanian community.In addition to the four key issues outlined above, this submission makes28 specific recommendations in response to discussion questions raised inthe TREAP. These recommendations are provided in the relevant sectionof the submission and presented as a consolidated list at the end of thefull submission.6T A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0
Table of ContentsList of acronyms.8Introduction: Issues and opportunities for Tasmania’s renewable future.9Priority 1: Transforming Tasmania into a global renewable energy powerhouse1.1 Doubling renewable energy generation by 2040 - key issues.131.2 Leveraging Tasmania’s renewable energy assets.281.3 Renewable hydrogen: Benefits and risks.331.4 Bioenergy in Tasmania.371.5 The clean transport opportunity.381.6 Establishing Renewables Tasmania to enhance governance, coordination and planning for the Tasmanianenergy sector .451.7 Establishing a Renewable Energy Centre of Excellence to promote innovation, research and collaboration.48Priority 2: Making energy work for the Tasmanian community2.1 Implications for energy prices and security.502.2 Digitalisation, smart-meters and grids.542.3 On-farm electricity generation and agricultural emissions.562.4 Energy efficiency.57Priority 3: Growing the economy, providing regional jobs and delivering long-term community benefits3.1 Community engagement and benefit sharing.583.2 Renewable infrastructure planning and coordination.643.3 Employment from construction and operation, and beyond.653.4 Promoting our renewable, low-carbon brand.683.5 Renewable energy and low-carbon innovation.72End notes.78List of recommendations .81List of contributors.84T A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0 7
List of AcronymsAEMO – Australian Energy Market OperatorRIT-T – Regulated Investment Test for TransmissionBoN – Battery of the NationTREAP – Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action PlanBEV – Battery Electric VehicleTIA – Tasmanian Institute of AgricultureCER – Clean Energy RegulatorTREC – Tasmanian Renewable Energy CertificatesCEFC – Clean Energy Finance CorporationTRET – Tasmanian Renewable Energy TargetCCS – Carbon Capture and StorageDECC – Dept of Energy and Climate Change (UK)UTAS – University of TasmaniaDPIPWE – Dept of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and EnvironmentESB – Energy Security BoardEV – Electric VehicleVRE – Variable Renewable EnergyVRET – Victorian Renewable Energy TargetZEV – Zero Emission VehicleGHG – Greenhouse Gases*GSP – Gross State ProductHVDC – High Voltage Direct CurrentISP – Integrated Systems PlanLCoE – Levelized Cost of EnergyNEM – National Energy MarketOEM – Original Equipment ManufacturerPEV – Personal Electric VehiclePV – PhotovoltaicsREC – Renewable Energy CertificateRET – Renewable Energy TargetREZ – Renewable Energy Zone8T A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0*The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognises seven greenhouse gases:carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3).
Introduction: Issues and opportunities for Tasmania’srenewable energy futureTasmania is a pioneer in renewableenergy generation with extensive cleanenergy expertise and assets. If developedstrategically, Tasmania can establish areputation as a global leader in flexible,storage-backed renewable energy systemscapable of delivering reliable, cost-effectiverenewable electricity. More significantly,our clean energy resources can be usedto establish Tasmania at the forefront ofthe broader transition to a sustainablelow-carbon economy, perhaps the mostsignificant transformation which will occur inthe global economy in the coming decades.1If Tasmania can grasp this opportunity andprovide an example to the world, it will notonly contribute to the State’s medium-termCOVID-19 recovery but will underpin ourfuture prosperity. This submission endorses the centralaims of the TREAP and acknowledges theimportance of the proposed Marinus Linkas a means of ensuring that electricity fromnew renewable projects can be exportedmaking a significant contribution to nationalemissions reduction efforts. We also notethat energy policy, markets and systems arechanging rapidly creating the possibility ofalternative or hybridised energy futures inwhich small-scale, decentralised generationand storage become more prominent.Tasmania should, therefore, also pursue thesealternative technologies and approaches toboth complement established, large-scalegrid-based energy systems and in preparationfor a future where more energy is generated,stored and consumed in localised microgrids. What is clear is that our significantrenewable energy resources are a valuableasset which provides a foundation for thebroader transition to a sustainable lowcarbon economy.outlined in the TREAP while also posing keyquestions and considering a range of policyoptions. Our aim is to make a constructive,evidence-based contribution to both thedevelopment of the TREAP and the widerdebate about how best to ensure Tasmaniadevelops an advanced and sustainable energysystem to promote the broader transition toan innovative and prosperous low-carboneconomy. The TREAP outlines the key elements of anambitious agenda which has the potential toshape Tasmania’s future for the better. But aswith all ambitious, future-shaping programsthere are risks, uncertainty and a wide rangeof views about how the significant benefitsand potential costs of the TREAP shouldbe managed. This submission draws on theexpertise of staff across the University ofTasmania (UTAS) and assesses the key actionsT A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0 9
Structure of the submissionThis submission follows the structure of theTREAP beginning with an analysis of Priority1: ‘Transforming Tasmania into a globalrenewable energy powerhouse’.Section 1 considers the key issues arisingfrom the doubling of the Tasmanianrenewable energy target including thebenefits and risks, ways in which to encourageand attain the target, likely future energydemand and alternative Tasmanian energyfutures (sub-section 1.1). We then look indetail at specific elements of the Action Planincluding: Marinus Link and Battery of the Nation,and the benefits and risks associated withthese projects (sub-section 1.2) The development of a renewablehydrogen industry (sub-section 1.3) inTasmania, including the need for a strongrenewable hydrogen certification scheme The potential use of bioenergy inTasmania (sub-section 1.4) The clean transport opportunity availableto Tasmania, which would work to cut1 0the State’s emissions as well as providingother co-benefits (sub-section 1.5) The potential role of Renewables Tasmaniato coordinate the implementation of theTREAP and the broader transition to alow-carbon economy is outlined in 1.6. Finally, in sub-section 1.7 we assess thecase for a Renewable Energy Centre ofExcellence and possible models for such acentre The section concludes with a discussionof the benefits of promoting energyefficiency measures in sub-section 2.4Section 3 focuses on Priority 3: Growingthe economy, providing regional jobs anddelivering long-term community benefits.Specific elements include: Models of community engagement andbenefit-sharing necessary to achieve theTREAP’s vision (sub-section 3.1)Section 2 focuses on Priority 2: Makingenergy work for the Tasmanian economy.Specific elements include: Options for improving renewableinfrastructure planning and coordination(sub-section 3.2) Analysis of the implications of the TREAPfor energy prices and security (sub-section2.1) The benefits of the increasing role ofdigitalisation, smart-meters and microgrids in Tasmania’s future energy system(sub-section 2.2) The issues associated with the expansionof on-farm electricity generation andstorage and the broader issue ofagricultural emissions (sub-section 2.3)Strategies for maximising localemployment from both the constructionand operation of renewable energyprojects and associated indirectemployment in regional communities. Akey element here is the identification offuture workforce needs and continuingto develop appropriate trainingopportunities (sub-section 3.3) Sub-section 3.4 outlines the potentialsocial and economic benefits to TasmaniaT A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0
of developing and promoting ourrenewable, low-carbon brand This section concludes by consideringhow our clean energy resources canbe used on-island to drive low-carboninnovation and investment. There are awide range of applications including theproduction green ammonia and fertiliserin agriculture, establishing zero emissionsdata centres, developing low emissionmarine technologies as well as a role forTasmania in undertaking internationallysignificant research and providingadvisory services and expertise to theworld.T A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0 1 1
The Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action Plan:A strategy for Tasmania’s low carbon future1 2T A S M A N I A’ S R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y F U T U R E - S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0
Priority 1: Transforming Tasmania into a globalrenewable energy powerhousePriority 1 considers a range of specific issuesassociated with the TREAP’s ambitious 200%renewable energy target, its implicationsfor Tasmania and the associated benefitsand risks. We then examine the two keyrenewable energy projects on which the 200%target depends, Marinus Link and Battery ofthe Nation before assessing a wider rangeof complementary initiatives identified inthe TREAP with a view to capitalising onTasmania’s clean energy assets.1.1 Doubling renewable energygeneration by 2040 - key issuesThe TREAP’s commitment to doublerenewable energy generation by 2040 hasthe potential to establish Tasmania as aleader in clean energy systems while makinga significant contribution to reducing carbonemissions both on-island and beyondour shores. Before assessing the widerimplications of the Tasmanian RenewableEnergy Target (TRET), it is important to clearlydefine the target, its implications and assessthe best strategies for achieving this goal.Defining the Tasmanian Renewable EnergyTargetThe TREAP establishes an ambitious TRETof generating an additional 10,500 GWh ofrenewable energy annually by 2040. Thedefinition of ‘new renewable generation’ forthe purposes of the TRET should incorporatethe following elements:1. Create a 2020 baseline, of total energyand power capacities of existinggenerators in the Tasmanian systemwith only energy produced from newrenewable generators (or energygeneration capacity expansions)counted as contributions to the TRETtarget. This baseline could provide aText box 1: Tasmania’s target in a global contextThe 200% renewable energy target proposed in the TREAP is ambitious and will enhance Tasmania’s reputationas a leader in renewable energy and the broader transition to a low-carbon economy. W
renewable energy projects and Tasmania as a whole, enjoy long-term benefits from increased investment in renewable energy projects. Providing training to maximise local employment in the industry will enable communities to work in and benefit from the expansion of the energy sector. Engagi
Tasmania is the renewable energy powerhouse of Australia. Our renewable energy resources and expertise in developing renewable energy is a 21st century competitive advantage. Tasmania is blessed with natural assets, we have world leading water and wind resources. By seizing Tasmania's immense potential, renewable energy can grow our
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4.0 Renewable Energy Market 4.1 Policy Framework for renewable energy 4.1.1 Policies and Strategies for Renewable Energy Promotion 4.1.2 Main actors 4.1.3 Regulatory Framework 4.1.4 Licensing Procedures for Renewable Energy 4.1.5 Feed-in-Tariff 4.2 Business Opportunities and Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources 4.2.1 Bioenergy 4.2.2 Solar energy
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