NIGERIA - Climate Transparency

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATION2. MITIGATIONREDUCING EMISSIONS TO LIMIT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASEHold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursueefforts to limit to 1.5 C, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.PARISAGREEMENTEMISSIONS OVERVIEWNigeria’s GHG emissions have increased by 11%(1990-2017). The government has set climatetargets to unconditionally reduce emissions by20% by 2030 below business as usual or 45%by 2030 conditional on international support.CO2DECREASEEMISSIONS1.5 CCOMPATIBILITYIn 2030, global CO2 emissions need to be45% below 2010 levels and reach net-zero by2050. Global energy related CO2 emissionsmust be cut by 40% below 2010 levels by 2030and reach net-zero by 2060.Source: Rogelj et al., 2018GHG emissions across sectors and NDC (MtCO2e/year)Nigeria’s emissions (excl. land use)have increased by 11% between1990 and 2017. When consideredby category, increases are seenin all sectors, with the exceptionof energy, which has decreasedslightly. The most recent emissionsprojections, based on the revisedBAU scenario and low carbonscenario presented in Nigeria’s ThirdNational Communication, show thatemissions will continue to increaseup to 2030 and reductions will notbe deep enough to meet the upperrange of its national mitigationtargets. Nigeria will need to scaleup climate action to align with theParis Agreement temperature goal.Total GHG emissions across sectors ergy200020102017Industrial processes20502030AgricultureWasteOtherNDC targetHistorical emissions/removals from land useTotal emissions (excl. land use), historic and projectedSources: Gütschow et al., 2019; Federal Ministry of Environment, 2020Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectorAnnual CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (MtCO2/year)10013%80Power 9011%Other energyrelated tSector* ‘Other energy-related sectors’ covers energy-related CO2 emissions from extracting and processing fossil fuels.Due to rounding, some graphs may sum to slightly above or below 100%.The largest driver ofoverall GHG emissionsare CO2 emissionsfrom fuel combustion.After increasingsignificantly in the firsthalf of the last decade,CO2 emissions fromfuel combustionstabilised around 2015.The transport sector,at 61%, is the largestcontributor, followedby other energyrelated sectors andindustries, at 13% and12% respectively.Source: Enerdata, 2020In response to falling oil prices due to COVID-19, Nigeria has removed its fuel subsidies.While officials indicate this is meant to be a permanent measure, some suspectsubsidies will return when oil prices rise again. Nigeria’s National Economic Stimulus Plan that aims to reduce the impact of COVID-19on the economy includes a solar home project, which will provide clean energy to up to five million off-grid households, as well as adomestic gas utilisation project.CORONAVIRUS RECOVERYReferences: IMF, 2020; Economic Sustainability Committee, 20205

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONENERGY OVERVIEWFossil fuels make up 25% of Nigeria’senergy mix (counting power, heat,transport fuels, etc). Despite the increasein renewable energy over the last twodecades, the carbon intensity of the energymix has barely changed.25%OF NIGERIA’SENERGY MIXIS FOSSIL FUELS1.5 CCOMPATIBILITYThe share of fossil fuels globally needsto fall to 67% of global total primaryenergy by 2030 and to 33% by 2050(and to substantially lower levels withoutCarbon Capture and Storage).Source: Rogelj et al., 2018Energy MixTotal primary energy supply 0025%FossilfuelsNatural gas10000199019931996Oil199920022005Natural gas20082011Renewables201411%2017 2019Renewables (incl. Hydro)OtherSource: Enerdata, 2020Due to rounding, some graphs may sum to slightly above or below 100%.This graph shows the fuel mix for all energy supply, including energy used not only for electricity generation, heating, andcooking, but also for transport fuels. Fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) still make up 25% of the Nigerian energy mix. While the shareof renewables in the energy mix increased, it is primarily biomass (excluding traditional biomass). The largest source of energy,represented by “Other” in the graph, is traditional biomass.Solar, Wind, Geothermal, and Biomass DevelopmentTotal primary energy supply (TPES) from solar, wind, geothermal and biomass (PJ)1000Solar, wind, geothermal and biomassaccount for 10% ofNigeria’s energy supply80010% Total600Breakdown:10% Biomass (excl. Traditional Biomass)20142017 2019Source: Enerdata, 2020Large hydropower and solid fuel biomass in residential use are not reflected due to their negative environmental and social impacts.Due to rounding, some graphs may sum to slightly above or below 100%.Solar, wind, geothermal and biomass account for 10% of Nigeria‘s energy supply. Non-traditional biomass dominates,with negligible additions of solar since 2012, and no wind or geothermal. The share of renewables in total energy supply hasdecreased by around 4% in the last five years (2014-2019).6

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIACarbon Intensity of the Energy SectorMITIGATIONPie graph.Update data from data file. Best to do it manually. (switch on thyou need to figure out what goes where.Then update text manually, as well as ‘Zero carbon’ and ‘FossiTonnes of CO2 per unit of total primary energy supply 000200220042006200820102012201420162018Source: Enerdata, 2020Carbon intensity shows how much CO2 is emitted per unit of energy supply.In Nigeria, carbon intensity has fluctuated between 10 to 15 tCO2 over the last three decades. This low level reflects thecontinuously high share of traditional biomass in the energy mix.Source: Enerdata, 2020Energy intensity of the economyEnergy supply per capita6.4135GJ/capitaTJ/PPP USD2015 millionsSource: Enerdata, 2020; The World Bank, 2019TPES per capita(GJ/capita):5-year trend(2014-2019) 2.8%The level of energy use per capita is closely related toeconomic development, climatic conditions and the price ofenergy.Data for 2018. Source: Enerdata, 2020; The World Bank, 2018Energy intensityof the economy:5-year trend(2013-2018) 6.3%This indicator quantifies how much energy is used for each unitof GDP, which is closely related to the level of industrialisation,efficiency, climatic conditions and geography.7

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONPOWER SECTOREmissions from energy used to make electricity and heatNigeria does not currently produce electricity from coal; however, revival of the coal industry has been listed as a priority inenergy policy. The decision to start using coal is not in line with a 1.5 C limit.11%CO2Share in energyrelated CO2emissions fromelectricity and heatproductionSource: Enerdata, 20201.5 CCOMPATIBILITYCoal and decarbonisationWorldwide, coal use for power generation needs to peak by2020 and, between 2030 and 2040, all the regions of the worldneed to phase out coal-fired power generation. Electricitygeneration has to be decarbonised before 2050, withrenewable energy the most promising alternative.Sources: Rogelj et al., 2018; Climate Analytics, 2016; Climate Analytics, 2019STATUS OF DECARBONISATIONElectricity mixGross power generation (TWh)3580%30Natural gas25202019155020.3% RenewablesBreakdown:20.2% Hydro0.1% Solar10199019931996Oil19992002 2005 2008Natural gas201120142017 2019RenewablesSource: Enerdata, 2020Due to rounding, some graphs may sum to slightly above or below 100%.Nigeria’s electricity generation from renewables has remained mostly constant, with minor ups and downs, over the last threedecades, accounting for 20% of the power mix in 2019. Renewable generation is almost entirely from hydropower, with minorgeneration from solar coming online in 2012. The level of natural gas power has more than doubled in the last 20 years, currentlyaccounting for 80% of the power mix.Share of renewables in power generation(incl. large hydro)20%Share ofrenewables inpower generation:5-year trend(2014-2019) 15%Source: Enerdata, 20208

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONEmissions intensity of the power sector402gCO2/kWhEmissionsintensity: 5-yeartrend (2014-2019)-3%Source: Enerdata, 2020For each kilowatt hour of electricity, 402gCO2 are emitted in Nigeria. The emissions intensity has only dropped marginallybecause the share of natural gas for power generation has dropped slightly in recent years (still 80% of the power mix).POLICY ASSESSMENTRenewable energy in the power sectorMediumIn 2016, the Nigerian government approved Nigeria’sSustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) Action Agenda whichhas a target of almost tripling generation capacity in thenext decade, to reach a total of 30GW by 2030. Of this, 30%will be generated from renewable resources, with almost halfof this provided by medium and large hydro.Coal phase-out in the power sectorLowWhile Nigeria does not currently use coal in the powersector, Nigeria’s National Energy Policy, revised in 2018,expresses the government’s intent to “pursue vigorouslya comprehensive programme of resuscitation of the coalindustry.”However, mid-way targets (for 2015 and 2020) have not yetbeen met and significant challenges in the electricity supplyindustry will make reaching these targets difficult.However, more recent provisions in Nigeria’s EconomicSustainability Plan in response to COVID-19 have focusedmostly on expansion of natural gas, with some provisions forrenewable energy development.References: own evaluation, based on Federal Republic of Nigeria,2016; IRENA, 2018References: own evaluation, based on Energy Commission ofNigeria, 2018; Economic Sustainability Committee, 20209

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONTRANSPORT SECTOREmissions from energy used to transport people and goodsEmissions from transport are still on the rise. 60% of direct CO2 emissions are from transportation. While the motorisationrate remains low (60 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants) and some plans are in place to expand rail, road transport remains thedominant form of transportation, with almost 50% of planned investments benefiting road transport. For staying within a1.5 C limit, passenger and freight transport need to be decarbonised.Share in energyrelated CO2emissions fromtransport sectorCO21.5 C60%COMPATIBILITYDirect emissionsSource: Enerdata, 2020The share of low-carbon fuels inthe transport fuel mix must increaseto about 60% by 2050.Source: Rogelj et al., 2018STATUS OF DECARBONISATIONTransport energy mixFinal energy consumption of transport by source 1999200220052008201120142017 2019100%OilOilSource: Enerdata, 2020Due to rounding, some graphs may sum to slightly above or below 100%.Oil accounts for 100% of the energy mix in transport.Transport emissions per capitaexcl. aviation (tCO2/capita)No data availableTransport emissions:5-year trend(2013-2018)No data available10

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONAviation emissions per capita60.01-6.1%Aviationemissions: 5-yeartrend (2012-2017)tCO2/capitaData for 2017. Source: Enerdata, 2020Motorisation rate60Passenger transport(modal split in % of passenger-km)VEHICLES PER 1,000INHABITANTS (2014)(modal split in % of tonne-km)55%Data for 2014. Source: Deloitte, 2016Market share of electricvehicles in new car sales (%)Freight utytrucks9%Road/bus2016Heavy-dutytrucks0.15%RailNo data availableSource: Federal Ministry of Environment,2020Source: Federal Ministry of Environment,2020POLICY ASSESSMENTPhase out fossil fuel carsLowPhase out fossil fuelheavy-duty vehiclesLowNigeria has not yet adopted a plan tophase-out fossil fuel cars; however,the National Action Plan to reduceshort-lived climate pollutants aimsto eliminate the use of high-emittingvehicles with increasingly stringentemission standards (Euro III by 2023,Euro IV by 2030).While there is no plan to phase outfossil fuel heavy-duty vehicles, theClean Energy Transport Scheme inmajor Nigerian cities involves theintroduction of compressed naturalgas (CNG) for buses in publictransport. The National Action Planalso includes plans to replace theprivately-operated buses in Lagoswith 5,000 cleaner buses.Reference: Federal Republic of Nigeria,2019Reference: Federal Republic of Nigeria,2019Modal shift in (ground)transportMediumThe Nigeria Integrated InfrastructureMaster Plan (NIIMP) guide’s infrastructureinvestment for the period 20142043 allocates USD 350bn to theroads subsector, almost half of thetransportation budget, while rail isallocated USD 75bn. The 2017-2020Economic Recovery and Growth Planincluded two new rail lines connectingLagos to Kano and Lagos to Calabar. Ata sub-national level, the Lagos transportreform initiative entails the promotion ofmodal shifts from road to rail and watertransport systems. Moreover, the Lagosnon-motorised transport policy aims forat least 50% of all trips being on foot orbicycle and 90% of all motorised tripsbeing on public transport.References: Federal Republic of Nigeria,2019; Lagos State Ministry of Transportationet al., 201811

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONBUILDING SECTOREmissions from energy used to build, heat and cool buildingsNigeria’s building emissions make up 2% of total direct CO2 emissions and 7% of electricity-related CO2 emissions.Building emissions occur directly(burning fuels for heating,cooking, etc) and indirectly (gridelectricity for air conditioning,appliances, etc. In Nigeria,buildings are responsible for 2%of direct CO2 emissions and 7% ofelectricity-related CO2 emissions.7%Electricity-relatedemissions1.5 CCOMPATIBILITY2%CO2DirectemissionsSource: Enerdata, 2020Global emissions from buildingsneed to be halved by 2030, andbe 80-85% below 2010 levels by2050, mostly through increasedefficiency, reduced energy demandand electrification in conjunctionwith complete decarbonisation ofthe power sector.Source: Rogelj et al., 2018STATUS OF DECARBONISATIONBuilding emissions per capitaResidential buildings(incl. indirect emissions)Energy use per m20.052No data availableNigeria has managed to decrease thealready-low level by 46% (2014-2019).tCO2/capitaCommercial and publicbuildingsEnergy use per m2Source: Enerdata, 2020No data available-46%Buildingemissions: 5-yeartrend (2014-2019)Building emissions are largely drivenby how much energy is used in heating,cooling, lighting, household appliancesetc. No data is available for Nigeria.POLICY ASSESSMENTNear zero energy new buildingsMediumRenovation of existing buildingsLowThe Building Energy Efficiency Code (2017) setsstandards for minimum efficiency requirements fornew buildings, which could contribute to at least 40%energy savings compared to current building practices.Meanwhile, the Building Energy Efficiency guidelines aim toachieve a demand reduction that can ameliorate the effectsof urban development and poor grid infrastructure.While Nigeria’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (2016),does not set targets for the renovation of existing buildings,it does identify multiple initiatives that may be implementedthat could generate energy savings in existing buildings,such as performance certificates for public buildings. In 2019,the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing also announcedgovernment issued rebates for owner occupiers to promoteenergy efficiency in buildings.References: own evaluation, based on Federal Ministry ofPower Works and Housing, 2016; Solid Green, 2017Reference: own evaluation, based on Inter-ministerialCommittee on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, 201612

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONINDUSTRY SECTOREmissions from energy in the industrial sectorIndustry-related emissions make up 12% of direct CO2 emissions in Nigeria and 2% of electricity-related CO2 emissions.Nigeria has only managed to reduce emissions from this sector slightly. Nigeria’s climate action plan for the industrialsector focuses on energy efficiency; however, emissions from industrial processes or fugitive emissions are alsoconsidered.Share in energyrelated CO2 emissionsfrom industrial sectorSource: atedemissions1.5 CCOMPATIBILITYIndustrial emissions need to bereduced by 65-90% from 2010levels by 2050.Source: Rogelj et al., 2018STATUS OF DECARBONISATIONIndustry emissions intensity 7Carbon intensity of cement production8(kgCO2/tonne product)0.20No data availabletCO2e/USD2015 GVAData for 2016. Sources: Gütschow et al., 2019; Enerdata, 2020Carbon intensity of steel production8Industryemissions: 5-yeartrend (2011-2016) 23%(kgCO2/tonne product)No data availableSteel production and steelmaking are significant GHGemission sources, and challenging to decarbonise.POLICY ASSESSMENTEnergy EfficiencyThere is no specific target to increase the energy efficiency in the industrial sector. The National Renewable Energy and EnergyEfficiency Policy aims to save 20% energy by 2020 in the transport, power and industry sectors, and 50% by 2030 by increasingenergy efficiency. The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan also does not specify targets for the industrial sector; however, itdoes identify several initiatives to improve industrial energy efficiency, although it is not clear how well developed these differentinitiatives are at present.References: own evaluation, based on Inter-ministerial Committee on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, 2016; Ministry of Power, 201513

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 NIGERIAMITIGATIONLAND USE SECTOREmissions from changes in the use of the landNET SINK OFEMISSIONSTo stay within the 1.5 C limit,Nigeria needs to make the landuse and forest sector a net sinkof emissions, e.g. by effectivelymanaging agricultural pressureson forested land.1.5 CCOMPATIBILITYGlobal tree-cover lossSource: Rogelj et al., 2018POLICY ASSESSMENTGross tree-cover loss by dominant driver (thousand hectares)0Target for net-zerodeforestationLow-50-100-150-200Global deforestation needs to be haltedand changed to net CO2 removals byaround 2030.20022004Forestry200620082010Commodity drivenUrbanisation2012201420162018Shifting agricultureWildfireThis indicator covers only gross tree-cover loss and does not take tree-cover gain intoaccount. It is thus not possible to deduce from this indicator the climate impact of theforest sector. 2000 tree cover extent – 30% tree canopy.Sources: Global Forest Watch, 2019From 2001

In 2017, Nigeria introduced its first Building Energy Efficiency Code, which sets minimum standards for energy efficiency for new buildings in Nigeria. 2030 NDC TARGET The country's 2030 NDC target is 442.5 MtCO 2 e by 2030. There is no Climate Action Tracker analysis for Nigeria. All figures exclude land use emissions. NIGERIA Nigeria's GHG