Seasonal Patterns In Criminal Victimization Trends
U.S. Department of JusticeOffice of Justice ProgramsBureau of Justice StatisticsJune 2014Special Reportncj 245959Seasonal Patterns in CriminalVictimization TrendsJanet L. Lauritsen, Ph.D., BJS Visiting Fellow, and Nicole White, Ph.D., University of Missouri – St. LouisIntroductionSeasonal patterns exist when similar fluctuations in thevictimization rates tend to recur each year during the sameseason. Seasonal patterns are a long-standing topic in bothpopular and scholarly literatures on crime and show howenvironmental factors, such as temperature changes anddaylight hours, might be associated with crime throughoutthe year. Seasonal patterns also are examined to learnwhether routine activity patterns, such as those associatedwith the beginning and end of the school year, are associatedwith variations in crime throughout the year.This report examines seasonal patterns in violent andhousehold property victimization in the United States from1993 to 2010. It describes seasonal patterns for householdproperty victimization (burglary, motor vehicle theft, andhousehold larceny) and types of violence (rape and sexualassault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault).Trends in other forms of violence, including intimate partnerviolence, victimizations involving weapons, and thoseresulting in injury, also are examined to determine the extentto which seasonal fluctuations exist.For household property crimes, the victimization dataindicate that there are seasonal patterns in householdburglary and larceny, with higher rates in the summer andlower rates during other seasons of the year. Motor vehiclethefts do not exhibit the same seasonal patterns.For violent victimizations, seasonal patterns also varydepending on the type of crime. Rape and sexual assaultrates and aggravated assault rates are higher in the summerthan in most other seasons. In comparison, simple assaultrates are higher in the fall than in other seasons, and robberyvictimization rates show no seasonal patterns. Intimatepartner violence exhibits regular seasonal fluctuations withrates highest during the summer and lowest during thewinter. Rates of violence involving weapons and violenceresulting in serious injury are higher in the summer than inthe winter and spring seasons; however, the fall rates are notsignificantly different from the summer rates.Highlights When seasonal variations in household propertyvictimization were found, the differences between thehighest and lowest seasonal rates were less than 11%. Seasonal patterns existed in household larceny and burglaryvictimization rates. Rates of these household crimes tendedto be higher in the summer than during other seasons ofthe year. Though rates of motor vehicle theft tended to be lowerin the spring than in the summer, there were few regulardifferences between summer, fall, and winter rates. When seasonal variations were found for violentvictimization, the differences between the rates of thehighest and lowest season were less than 12%. Aggravated assault rates were higher during the summerthan during the winter, spring, and fall. In comparison,simple assault rates were higher during the fall than duringother seasons of the year. Robbery rates did not exhibit seasonal variations. Rape and sexual assault victimization rates tended to behigher during the summer than during the fall and winter. Rates of intimate partner violence were higher during thesummer than during the winter, spring, and fall.BJS
The data in this report were developed from the Bureauof Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime VictimizationSurvey (NCVS), which annually collects information onnonfatal victimizations against persons age 12 or olderfrom a nationally representative sample of U.S. households.The data included crimes reported and not reported to thepolice from 1993 to 2010. Asking the victim in which monththe incident occurred makes it possible to assess how therisk for victimization varies throughout the year. For eachof the crime types, differences in the rates are comparedacross the four seasons of the year. Winter rates are basedon victimizations that occur in December, January, andFebruary; spring rates occur in March, April, and May;summer rates occur in June, July, and August; and fall ratesoccur in September, October, and November. Seasonalpatterns in the 1993 to 2010 trends exist when statisticalanalyses reveal periodic fluctuations in the rates, which tendto recur each year during the same season See Methodologyfor a description of the statistical analysis used in this report.Prior BJS Research on SeasonalityBJS has previously examined seasonal patterns inselected types of victimization using monthly data from1973 to 1977 from the National Crime Survey (NCS), thepredecessor of the National Crime Victimization Survey(NCVS).1 Earlier research examined some of the same typesof victimizations assessed in this report.The previous report found notable seasonal fluctuationsin household larceny and burglary, and rates werehighest during the summer months. Seasonal differenceswere also found for motor vehicle theft and for assaultvictimization. For these crimes, the differences betweenthe summer and winter month rates were relativelysmaller than those found for household burglary andlarceny. The earlier findings for these types of victimizationare similar to the patterns shown in this report; however,the magnitude of the seasonal differences were somewhatlarger from 1973 to 1977 than from 1993 to 2010. Duringthe earlier period, burglaries were about 26% less frequentin the winter than in the summer, while in the more recentperiod, the winter versus summer difference in burglarywas about 11%. No significant seasonal fluctuations werefound for robbery in either study.1Crime and Seasonality: National Crime Survey Report, NCJ 64818,BJS web, May 1980.BJS Visiting FellowsThe BJS Visiting Fellows program is intended to facilitatecollaboration between academic scholars and governmentresearchers in survey methodology, statistics, economics,and social sciences. Visiting Fellows have the uniqueopportunity to address substantive, methodological, andanalytic issues relevant to BJS programs, and to furtherknowledge and understanding of criminal justice systemsoperation. Fellows conduct research at BJS or at theirhome site, use BJS data and facilities, and interact with BJSstaff. Pending available funding, the program is normallyconducted each year through a competitive solicitation.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 2014Applicants are limited to senior-level social scienceresearchers or statisticians in the fields of statistics, surveymethodology, mathematics, criminology, demography,economics, behavioral science, and other related fields.They must have an established research record in theirfield, have considerable expertise in their area of proposedresearch, and be willing to commit a substantial portion oftheir time (typically 6 to 18 months) to undertake analysesof existing BJS data. In addition, they must produce areport that both summarizes their analyses and meetsBJS publication and data quality standards. For furtherinformation, see http://www.bjs.gov/content/fellows.cfm.2
Seasonal patterns in householdproperty victimizationTotal household property victimizationRates of total household property victimization includeburglary, motor vehicle theft, and household larceny.Differences in the total household property victimizationrates across winter, spring, summer, and fall exhibitedrecurrent seasonal patterns (figure 1). In all of the yearsexcept 1995, rates of household property victimizationappeared highest in summer and lowest in either winter orspring. Statistical analysis of the seasonal rates indicates thatthey were higher in the summer than in the other seasonsof the year (table 1). Compared to summer rates, householdproperty victimization rates were an average of about7% lower in winter, 8% lower in spring, and 3% lower in fall.Therefore, the difference between rates in the summer andother seasons was relatively small.Table 1Average percent difference in seasonal rate of householdvictimization, by type of crime, 1993–2010WinterSpringSummerFallTotal propertycrime-6.9%*-8.0* -3.1*Householdburglary-10.5%*-8.8* -5.9*Motorvehicle theft-2.2%-5.6* 0Householdlarceny-6.4%*-8.0* -2.7*Note: See appendix table 1 for regression coefficients and standard errors.*Difference is statistically significant (p .05, two-tail test). Highest rate season used for percentage comparisons.Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey,1993–2010.Figure 1Seasonal rates of household property victimization, 1993–2010Per 1,000 households100806040Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100Winter '93Summer '9320Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20143
BurglaryHousehold burglary exhibited seasonal patterns, with ratesof victimization typically highest in summer and lowest inwinter or spring (figure 2). In all but 3 years (1999, 2005,and 2008), rates of burglary appeared2 highest in summer.2The term "appeared" refers to within year seasonal variations in pointestimates that are not statistically different.In some years, spring rates of burglary were lower thanwinter rates. On average, household burglary rates wereapproximately 11% lower in winter, 9% lower in spring, andabout 6% lower in fall than in summer. Among householdproperty crimes, burglary showed the largest averagedifference (11%) between the peak (summer) and trough(winter) seasonal rates.Figure 2Seasonal rates of burglary, 1993–2010Per 1,000 households2015105Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20144
Motor vehicle theftCompared to other household property crimes, rates ofmotor vehicle theft showed limited amounts of seasonalvariation from 1993 to 2010 (figure 3). In approximatelyhalf of the years, motor vehicle theft appeared highest in thesummer, while in other years it appeared higher during thefall. The lowest rates of motor vehicle theft seemed to be inthe spring, though this was not always the case. Statisticalanalysis confirmed the lack of seasonality in motor vehicletheft and revealed that the differences between summer, fall,and winter rates were not statistically significant. However,spring rates were significantly lower than summer ratesof motor vehicle theft, with spring rates on average about6% lower than summer rates.Figure 3Seasonal rates of motor vehicle theft, 1993–2010Per 1,000 households108640Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '102Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20145
Household larcenyRates of household larceny showed some consistent seasonalfluctuations throughout the 1993 to 2010 period (figure 4).Household larceny typically appeared highest in thesummer, though in some years (such as 1994 to 1996), fallrates appeared equal to or slightly higher than the summerrates. Like burglary, household larceny rates also appeared tobe lowest in the spring or winter. Statistical analyses revealedseasonality in household larceny. Compared to summerrates, household larceny rates were about 6% lower in thewinter, 8% lower in spring, and about 3% lower in fall.Figure 4Seasonal rates of household larceny, 1993–2010Per 1,000 households80604020Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20146
Seasonal patterns in violentvictimizationTotal violent victimizationSummary indicators and specific types of violence wereexamined to assess the seasonal patterns for violentvictimization. Total violent victimization includes rapeand sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simpleassault. Differences in the total violent victimization ratesacross the winter, spring, summer, and fall exhibited somerecurrent seasonal patterns from 1993 to 2010 (figure 5).However, these patterns were different from those observedfor household property victimization.In most years, rates of violence appeared highest in thefall and lowest in the winter, though this was not alwaysthe case. On average, statistical analysis indicated that therates were higher in the fall than in the winter and springand that summer rates were statistically similar to rates ofviolence during the fall (table 2). Though the differencesbetween the fall rates of violence and the winter and springrates were statistically significant, the seasonal variationswere small. On average, rates of violence during the fall wereabout 4% higher than winter rates and about 3% higher thanspring rates.Table 2Average percent difference in seasonal rate of violentvictimization, by type of crime, 1993–2010WinterSpringSummerFallTotalSerious Rape/sexualAggravated Simpleviolence violence assaultRobbery assaultassault-4.4%* 0*-4.7*-1.8 -0.6 -5.0* -3.2*-10.4* -3.6* Note: See appendix table 2 for regression coefficients and standard errors.*Difference is statistically significant (p .05, two-tail test). Highest rate season used for percentage comparisons.Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey,1993–2010.Figure 5Seasonal rates of total violent victimization, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older2015100Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '105Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20147
Serious violent victimizationSerious violent victimization rates, which include rapeand sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault, variedsignificantly across the seasons in ways that differed fromthose for total violent victimization (figure 6). Statisticalanalysis of seasonal rates showed that serious violence wassignificantly higher during the summer than during thewinter, spring, and fall seasons. Winter rates of seriousviolence were approximately 6% lower on average thansummer rates of serious violence, and rates for spring(5% lower) and fall (3% lower) were also lower than summerrates. Because serious violent victimization excluded simpleassault, the differences between the seasonal patterns fortotal and serious violent victimization indicate a uniqueseasonal pattern for simple assault victimization comparedto other types of violence.Figure 6Seasonal rates of serious violent victimization, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older108640Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '102Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20148
Rape and sexual assaultWhen trends in specific types of violent crime wereexamined separately, differences in seasonal patternsemerged. Rape and sexual assault rates exhibited someregular fluctuation across some of the seasons; however,the patterns did not indicate a single peak season, as thedifferences between the summer and spring rates were notstatistically significant (figure 7). Winter and fall rates ofrape and sexual assault tended to be lower than summerrates, but they were not significantly lower than spring rates.From 1993 to 2010, winter rates of rape and sexual assaultwere approximately 9% lower on average than summer rates,and fall rates were about 10% lower than summer rates.Figure 7Seasonal rates of rape and sexual assault, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older1.00.80.60.40.0Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100.2Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 20149
RobberyUnlike the other types of violent crime, robbery did notexhibit seasonal fluctuations from year to year (figure 8).Robbery victimization rates were statistically similar duringwinter, spring, summer, and fall. This similarity in seasonalrates indicates that the periodic fluctuations that wereobserved in the rates did not usually recur each year duringthe same season.Figure 8Seasonal rates of robbery, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older2.01.61.20.80.0Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100.4Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201410
Aggravated assaultSeasonal patterns in aggravated assault were statisticallysignificant and most comparable to those shown for seriousviolent victimization (figure 9). This was because aggravatedassault rates were higher than the rates for the other seriousviolence crime types (rape and sexual assault and robbery).In over half of the years, aggravated assault appeared to peakin the summer. Likewise, the seasonality analysis indicatedthat aggravated assault rates were significantly higher duringthe summer than during the winter, spring, and fall seasons.More specifically, winter rates of aggravated assault wereabout 7% lower on average than summer rates, and rates forspring (6% lower) and fall (4% lower) were also lower thansummer rates.Figure 9Seasonal aggravated assault rates, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older54320Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '101Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201411
Simple assaultAs suggested by the differences in the seasonal patternsfor total violence and serious violent victimization, simpleassault rates exhibited a unique pattern of seasonality(figure 10). Unlike any other type of violent victimization,simple assault rates were highest in the fall. On average,winter rates of simple assault were nearly 6% lower thanfall rates, while spring and summer rates were about 5%lower than fall rates. This unique seasonal pattern for simpleassault was due to the experiences of youth ages 12 to 17whose victimization experiences exhibited distinct seasonalpatterns compared to adults (see textbox on page 13).Figure 10Seasonal rates of simple assault, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older108640Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '102Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201412
Seasonal patterns in simple assault differed for youth and adultsSimple assault victimization rates were higher among youth ages 12 to 17 than among adults age 18 and older andexhibited different peak and trough seasons (figure 11). Simple assault rates among youth were lowest during the summerwhen the school year ended, and highest in the fall when the school year began. Adult rates of simple assault exhibitedrelatively less seasonal fluctuation and were highest in the summer.Figure 11Seasonal rates of simple assault for youth and adults, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older353025201510Age 12–175Age 18 and olderWinter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201413
Intimate partner violenceTo assess the degree of regular seasonal fluctuations inintimate partner violence, rates of all types of violentvictimization in which the victim reported that the offenderwas a current or ex-spouse, or a current or ex-boyfriendor girlfriend, were examined. Seasonal rates of intimatepartner violence appeared to peak in the summer in morethan half of the years (figure 12). Statistical analysis of theintimate partner violence rates indicated that there wereseasonal differences between summer rates and the ratesfor other seasons (table 3). Compared to the summer,intimate partner violence was about 12% lower in the winter,6% lower in the spring, and 9% lower in the fall (table 3).Table 3Average percent difference in the seasonal rate of violentvictimization involving intimate partners, weapon use, andinjury, 1993–2010WinterSpringSummerFallIntimate partnerviolence-11.5%*-5.8* -9.0*Serious violenceinvolving weapons-5.7%*-4.7* -3.2Serious violenceresulting in injury-6.7**-6.7* -5.6Note: See appendix table 3 for regression coefficients and standard errors.*Difference is statistically significant (p .05, two-tail test). Highest rate season used for percentage comparisons.Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey,1993–2010.Figure 12Seasonal rates of intimate partner violence, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older2.01.61.20.80.0Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100.4Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201414
Serious violence involving weaponsRates of serious violence involving weapons also exhibitedsome statistically significant patterns of seasonal variation(figure 13). Violence involving weapon use tended to behigher during the summer than during the winter andspring. On average, winter rates of this type of violencewere approximately 6% lower than summer rates, whilespring rates were about 5% lower than summer rates. Thedifferences between the summer and fall rates were not largeenough across the years to be statistically significant.Figure 13Seasonal rates of serious violent crime involving weapons, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older108640Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '102Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201415
Serious violence resulting in injurySeasonal patterns in rates of serious violent victimizationresulting in injury were comparable to those found forserious violence involving weapons (figure 14). Violentvictimizations resulting in serious injury tended to occur athigher rates during the summer than during the winter andspring. Winter and spring rates of serious violence resultingin injury were about 7% lower than summer rates. Althoughfall rates were also somewhat lower on average than summerrates, these differences were not statistically significant.Figure 14Seasonal rates of serious violent crime resulting in injury, 1993–2010Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older2.01.51.00.0Winter '93Summer '93Winter '94Summer '94Winter '95Summer '95Winter '96Summer '96Winter '97Summer '97Winter '98Summer '98Winter '99Summer '99Winter '00Summer '00Winter '01Summer '01Winter '02Summer '02Winter '03Summer '03Winter '04Summer '04Winter '05Summer '05Winter '06Summer '06Winter '07Summer '07Winter '08Summer '08Winter '09Summer '09Winter '10Summer '100.5Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends June 201416
SummaryWith the exception of robbery, each of the violent andhousehold property crimes exhibited a pattern of recurrentseasonal fluctuations in their trends from 1993 to 2010.The most common pattern for household property crimeswas that victimization occurred at higher rates duringthe summer than during other seasons. Motor vehicletheft rates exhibited less regular seasonal fluctuation thanhousehold burglary and larceny. While summer rates ofmotor vehicle theft were higher than spring rates, theywere not significantly different from winter and fall rates.Across each type of household property victimization, thefluctuations between the seasonal peak and trough rates areless than 11%. In comparison, the variations in the annualvictimization rates from 1993 to 2010 were much larger.For example, the household property victimization ratedeclined 62% from 318.9 per 1,000 households in 1993 to120.2 per 1,000 households in 2010.3 Therefore, the variationin household victimization rates across the years was largerthan the seasonal fluctuations within the calendar year.For violent crimes, the most common pattern showed thatvictimization rates were higher during the summer thanduring other seasons of the year. However, this patternhad two important exceptions. First, unlike any other type3CriminalVictimization, 2010, NCJ 235508, BJS web, September 2011.of violence, robbery rates exhibited no regular seasonalvariation over time. Second, simple assault rates were higherin the fall than in the winter, spring, and summer. Thesefindings indicating little seasonality in robbery and peakrates of simple assault in the fall were similar to those foundin prior BJS research based on victimization data from themid-1970s.4Intimate partner violence rates were higher during thesummer than during other seasons of the year. This patternwas more similar to the seasonal variations found for seriousviolence than for simple assault victimization. Trends inassault resulting in serious injury and assault involvingweapons also indicated that summer rates were higher thanthe rates in other seasons; however, the differences betweenfall and summer rates in these types of violence were notstatistically significant. When seasonal differences in varioustypes of violence were found, the magnitude of the differencebetween the peak and trough rates was 12% or less. Likehousehold property crime, variations in the annual violentvictimization rates from 1993 to 2010 were larger. Theviolent victimization rate declined 70% from 49.9 per 1,000persons age 12 or older in 1993 to 14.9 per 1,000 in 2010,varying more from 1993 to 2010 than across the seasons ofthe year.54Crimeand Seasonality: National Crime Survey Report, NCJ
Rates of total household property victimization include burglary, motor vehicle theft, and household larceny. Differences in the total household property victimization rates across winter, spring, summer, and fall exhibited recurrent seasonal patterns (figure 1). In all of the years except 1995, rates of household property victimization
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