Linking The ACT Aspire Assessments To ISIP Reading And Math - Istation

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Running Head: ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE PREDICTABILITY STUDY - CONFIDENTIAL 1 Linking the ACT Aspire Assessments to ISIP Reading and Math September 2020 Chalie Patarapichayatham, Ph.D. Southern Methodist University Victoria N. Locke, Ph.D. Istation

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Abstract This study provides the proficiency projection of Istation’s Indicators of Progress (ISIP) Reading and ISIP Math on the ACT Aspire Arkansas state reading and math assessments for second and third grade students. A classification accuracy is also provided. All data came from students in second grade in the 2017-2018 school year and third grade in the 2018-2019 school year in the state of Arkansas. Using multinomial logistic regression, ISIP scores are the predictor variable, and the ACT Aspire performance levels are the outcome variable. Results show that second graders who obtained an ISIP Reading score around the 75th percentile or higher at the end of the year (EOY) had a high probability of achieving the Ready performance level on the ACT Aspire. Third graders who obtained an ISIP Reading score around the 65th percentile rank or higher at the middle of the year (MOY) had a high probability of achieving the Ready performance level. Students in Levels 4 and 5 have a high probability of achieving Ready performance on the ACT Aspire Reading assessment in the spring. In math, second graders who obtained an ISIP Math score around the 45th percentile rank or higher at EOY and third graders who obtained an ISIP Math score around the 40th percentile rank or higher at MOY had a high probability of achieving the Ready performance level. These results show that students in Tier 1 or Levels 3, 4, and 5 have a high probability of achieving Ready performance on the ACT Aspire Math assessment in the spring.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Introduction ISIP assessments (ISIP Reading, ISIP Math, and ISIP Español) are web-delivered computer-adaptive testing (CAT) assessments. The purpose of this research is to explore how well performance on the ISIP Reading and ISIP Math assessments predicts performance on the ACT Aspire assessment used by the state of Arkansas in the spring as an end-of-year summative assessment. The predictability of the ISIP assessments can inform students, parents, teachers, and administrators of the likelihood that a student will be successful on the spring ACT Aspire assessment and provide information needed to give students personalized instruction. Literature Review Computer-adaptive testing adjusts to a student’s individual ability. The first time a student takes a CAT assessment, they will typically receive an item that is of medium difficulty. If the student gets the question correct, they will receive a more difficult item. If the student gets the question incorrect, they will receive an easier item. In this manner, the assessment adjusts to the student’s level of ability or knowledge. The ISIP assessments fall into this category (Mathes et al., 2015). ISIP Assessments ISIP assessments are built using two-parameter Item Response Theory. ISIP gathers and reports frequent information about student progress in the critical domains throughout and across academic years (Patarapichayatham et al., 2013). ISIP accomplishes this by delivering monthly tests that target critical areas to inform instruction. With adequate computer resources, it is possible to administer ISIP assessments to an entire classroom, school, or district in a single day. Student results are immediately available online for teachers and administrators, illustrating each student’s past and present performance and skill growth. Teachers are alerted

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY when students are not making adequate progress so that the instructional program can be modified before a pattern of failure becomes established (Mathes, 2011). ISIP Reading and ISIP Math measure students’ ability and identify deficits in critical areas to provide continuous differentiated instruction. ISIP Early Reading (ER) is available for prekindergarten through 3rd grade students, and ISIP Math is designed for students in prekindergarten through 8th grade. Istation provides teachers and other school personnel with easy-to-interpret, web-based reports that detail student strengths and deficits and provide links to teaching resources and targeted intervention strategies (Istation, 2018). ISIP ER has strong predictability with several state assessments including the Virginia Standards of Learning (Campbell et al., 2019), the PARCC (Cook & Ross, 2020), the Idaho ISAT (Wolfe & Ross, 2020), the Renaissance Star (Campbell et al., 2019), the Colorado Measures of Academic Success (Patapichayatham, 2019), and the Ohio AIR (LePlante, 2018). ISIP Math also has predictability with the Ohio AIR (LePlante, 2018). ACT Aspire The state of Arkansas requires public school students in grades 3 through 10 to participate in a statewide program of educational assessments in the spring. Each student will participate in English, reading, writing, mathematics, and science end-of-year testing. The state uses the ACT Aspire assessments as the end-of-year tests. The ACT Aspire assessments are vertically scaled assessments that are aligned with content standards that target college and career readiness (ACT, 2019). The purpose of this study is to predict students’ performance on the ACT Aspire based on their ISIP scores in reading and math. There are four objectives in this current study. 1) Using the end-of-year assessment month (EOY) of second grade ISIP Reading to predict students’ third grade ACT Aspire Reading outcome

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY 2) Using the middle-of-year assessment month (MOY) of third grade ISIP Reading to predict students’ third grade ACT Aspire Reading outcome 3) Using the end-of-year assessment month (EOY) of second grade ISIP Math to predict students’ third grade ACT Aspire Math outcome 4) Using the middle-of-year assessment month (MOY) of third grade ISIP Math to predict students’ third grade ACT Aspire Math outcome ACT Aspire overall scale score performance levels are used to place students’ assessment scores in one of four levels of achievement: level 1 – In need of support; level 2 – Close; level 3 – Ready; or level 4 – Exceeding. The scale scores of each performance level in reading and math of the third grade are in Table 1. Table 1: Scale Scores for ACT Aspire Performance Levels in Third Grade Assessment Level 1 In need of support Level 2 Close Level 3 Ready Level 4 Exceeding ACT Aspire Reading 400–410 411–414 415–418 419–442 ACT Aspire Math 400–408 409–412 413–416 417–460 All data used in this study were obtained from the state of Arkansas. The data were collected from students who were in third grade during the 2018-2019 academic year with ISIP Reading or Math and ACT Aspire scores and had also taken the ISIP Reading or ISIP Math assessment in second grade in the 2017-2018 academic year. The ISIP Math assessment was renormed using data from the 2019-2020 school year, and the scores were put on a vertical scale. For this analysis, we converted the old score to the new score using the equating constants from the new norms (Istation 2020, forthcoming).

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Data and Methods Our analytic plan first consisted of evaluating the Pearson correlation between the ISIP assessments and the ACT Aspire, and then we used multinomial logistic regression to determine probabilities for reaching the Ready or above levels on the ACT Aspire. Finally, we conducted a classification accuracy to determine cut points that best predict whether or not the student will meet the Ready or above level on the ACT Aspire. Analytic Samples ISIP Reading We obtained data from the Arkansas Department of Education for this analysis. We included students that had both an ISIP score and an ACT Aspire score. The second-grade sample consisted of 8,399 students: 49.0% were female and 51.0% were male. Slightly over two thirds (68.4%) of the sample consisted of students who were White, while 12.2% of the sample consisted of students who were Black or African American. Thirteen percent (13.2%) consisted of students who were Hispanic or Latino, and 6.2% were students who were Asian or other race/ethnicities including Native American/Alaska Natives, two or more races, and others. Most of the students (88.5%) use English as their primary language, 10.0% use Spanish as their primary language, and 1.5% use another language. Approximately 10 percent of the students (9.8%) were identified as English language learners (ELLs). The mean ISIP ER score was 236.62, and the mean ACT Aspire Reading score was 417.11. Complete results are available in Table 2, which also provides percentages for the entire state of Arkansas, based on data available from the National Center for Education Statistics, and the Arkansas Bureau of Legislative Affairs. The sample in these analyses have a higher percentage of students who are White, and a lower percentage of students who are Black or African American. The percentage of students who are Hispanic or Latino/a is similar to the state average.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Table 2. Demographics of the Analytic Sample Reading 2nd grade N 8,399 Reading 3rd grade N 5,089 Math 2nd grade N 8,381 Math 3rd grade N 4,774 Arkansas NCES 2017-18 Gender Female Male Race/Ethnicity White Black or African American Hispanic or Latino/a Asian or Other Language English 49.0% 51.0% 48.9% 51.1% 48.9% 51.1% 48.7% 51.3% 48.7%* 51.3%* 68.4% 12.2% 72.4% 8.6% 68.6% 12.4% 66.9% 8.9% 59.8%* 20.5%* 13.2% 16.9% 13.3% 17.0% 13.5%* 6.2% 7.1% 5.7% 7.2% 6.4%* 88.5% 84.3% 88.6% 84.3% 91.9%** Spanish 10.0% 13.6% 9.9% 13.6% 7.3%** Other Language 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 0.8%** 9.8% 11.6% 9.7% 11.5% 8.31%** ELL Mean (SD) 236.62 244.35 501.54 513.17 ISIP score (18.43) (20.81) (46.45) (52.34) Mean (SD) 417.11 417.23 413.26 413.40 ACT Score (5.41) (5.43) (4.15) (4.18) *Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core Data file 2017-18 school year. **Source: Arkansas Bureau of Legislative Research, data based on the 2016-2017 school year. In third grade the sample consisted of 5,089 students, of which 48.9% were female and 51.1% were male students. Students who were White comprised 72.4% of the sample. Students who were Black or African American comprised 8.6% of the sample, followed by students who were Hispanic or Latino at 16.9%, and 7.1% who were Asian or other race/ethnicities. Most of the students (84.3%) use English as their primary language, and 13.6% use Spanish as the primary language. ELLs were 11.6% of the sample. The mean ISIP ER score was 244.35, and the mean ACT Aspire Reading score was 417.23.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY ISIP Math The analytic sample for the math study contained 8,381 students in second grade, of which 48.9% were female and 51.1% were male students. Sixty eight percent (68.6%) of the sample consisted of students who were White, 12.4% of the sample consisted of students who were Black or African American, 13.3% were Hispanic or Latino, and 5.7% were Asian or other race/ethnicities. Most of the students (88.6%) use English as their primary language, 9.9% use Spanish as their primary language, and 1.5% use another language as their primary language. In the analytic sample, 9.7% of the students were ELL students. The mean ISIP Math score was 501.54, and the mean ACT Aspire Math score was 413.26. The third-grade sample consisted of 4,774 students: 48.7% were female and 51.3% were male. Demographics are similar to the second-grade sample: 66.9% of the sample were White, 8.9% were Black or African American, 17.0% were Hispanic or Latino, and 7.2% were Asian or other race/ethnicities. Slightly over eleven percent (11.5%) of these students were ELL students. Most of these students (84.3%) use English as their primary language, 13.6% use Spanish as their primary language, and 2.1% use other languages as their primary language. The mean ISIP Math score was 513.17, and the mean ACT score was 413.40. Analytic Plan To provide teachers and administrators with the information they need to determine if a student is likely to reach the Ready or above status on the ACT Aspire, we first evaluated the Pearson product-moment correlations to establish that the performance on the assessments was correlated. Next, we used multinomial logistic regression to determine the probabilities of reaching the Ready or Exceeding levels of the ACT Aspire. The ISIP scores are the predictor, and the ACT Aspire performance levels are the outcome variable. Students who had ISIP scores between the 1st and 99th percentile ranks were included in the analysis. The model is fitted for each grade separately.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY We computed probabilities for the four performance levels for selected ISIP Reading scores. A total of 99 ISIP Reading scaled scores in EOY of second grade and 99 ISIP Reading scaled scores in MOY of third grade are selected, which correspond to the 1st through 99th percentile ranks with an increment of one. For the outcome variable in the multinomial logistic regression, performance levels are defined by the ACT Aspire proficiency cut points (see Table 1). There are four ACT Aspire performance levels, but this study investigates performance levels 2, 3, and 4. The probability of ACT Aspire performance level 2 (Close) or above is computed by adding the probabilities of levels 2, 3, and 4. The probability of ACT Aspire performance level 3 (Ready) or above is computed by adding the probabilities of levels 3 and 4. The probability of ACT Aspire performance level 4 (Exceeding) is the probability of level 4 itself. The analyses are computed using R software with the nnet package. Finally, we conducted a classification accuracy to determine ISIP cut points that could help differentiate students who would or would not attain level 3 (Ready) or higher on the ACT Aspire. True positives consist of students who are predicted to reach Ready or higher, and true negatives consist of students who are predicted to meet Close or lower. Results Table 3 shows the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients between ISIP Reading scores and ACT Aspire Reading scores. They were 0.71 and 0.73 for EOY of second grade and MOY of third grade. ISIP Reading and ACT Aspire Reading assessments show a strong relationship, meaning that if students do well on ISIP Reading, it is likely that they will do well on the ACT Aspire in the spring of third grade.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Table 2: Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficients between ISIP and ACT Aspire Grade 2 3 Reading 0.71 0.73 Math 0.76 0.77 Correlations between the ISIP Math scores and ACT Aspire Math scores show a strong relationship between the two assessments. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients were 0.76 and 0.77 for EOY of second grade and MOY of third grade. These results confirm that if students do well on ISIP Math, it is likely that they will do well on ACT Aspire Math in the spring. ISIP Reading and ACT Aspire-ELA Second Grade Table 4 shows the probability projection of second grade EOY ISIP Reading scores to predict ACT Aspire Reading performance levels. Low probability is defined as a less than 33.3% chance of attaining a proficiency level, medium probability is defined as between 33.3% and 66.7%, and high probability is defined as greater than 66.7%. Students in second grade who obtained an ISIP Reading score of 194 to 215 (2nd to 15th percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving ACT Aspire performance level 2 (Close) or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score lower than 194 had a low probability of Close or higher, and students who obtained an ISIP Reading score higher than 215 had a high probability of achieving Close or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score of 231 to 247 (41st to 74th percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving ACT Aspire Ready or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score lower than 231 had a low probability, whereas students who obtained an ISIP Reading score higher than 247 had a high probability of achieving ACT Aspire Ready or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score of 247 to 262 (73rd to 92nd

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving ACT Aspire performance level 4 (Exceeding). Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score higher than 262 (92nd percentile rank) had a high probability of achieving ACT Aspire Exceeding. Table 4: EOY of Second Grade ISIP Reading to Predict ACT Aspire Reading ISIP Score 185 194 198 200 203 205 206 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 217 218 219 219 220 221 221 222 223 223 224 224 225 226 226 227 227 228 228 229 229 Percentile 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 ProbClose 0.328 0.421 0.465 0.488 0.523 0.547 0.559 0.583 0.594 0.606 0.618 0.630 0.642 0.654 0.666 0.677 0.689 0.689 0.700 0.712 0.712 0.723 0.734 0.734 0.746 0.756 0.756 0.767 0.767 0.778 0.789 0.789 0.799 0.799 0.809 0.809 0.819 0.819 Close Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.014 0.028 0.038 0.044 0.055 0.064 0.069 0.079 0.085 0.091 0.097 0.104 0.112 0.119 0.128 0.136 0.146 0.146 0.155 0.166 0.166 0.176 0.188 0.188 0.200 0.212 0.212 0.226 0.226 0.239 0.254 0.254 0.269 0.269 0.285 0.285 0.301 0.301 Ready Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low ProbExceeding 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.019 0.021 0.021 0.024 0.027 0.027 0.030 0.034 0.034 0.038 0.038 0.043 0.048 0.048 0.054 0.054 0.061 0.061 0.068 0.068 Exceeding Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY ISIP Score 230 230 231 231 232 232 233 233 234 234 235 235 236 236 237 237 238 238 239 239 240 240 241 241 242 242 243 243 244 244 245 245 246 246 247 247 248 249 249 250 250 251 252 253 253 254 255 Percentile 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 ProbClose 0.829 0.829 0.838 0.838 0.847 0.847 0.857 0.857 0.865 0.865 0.874 0.874 0.882 0.882 0.890 0.890 0.898 0.898 0.905 0.905 0.912 0.912 0.919 0.919 0.925 0.925 0.931 0.931 0.937 0.937 0.943 0.943 0.948 0.948 0.953 0.953 0.957 0.961 0.961 0.965 0.965 0.969 0.972 0.975 0.975 0.978 0.980 Close High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.318 0.318 0.336 0.336 0.354 0.354 0.373 0.373 0.392 0.392 0.412 0.412 0.433 0.433 0.453 0.453 0.474 0.474 0.496 0.496 0.518 0.518 0.539 0.539 0.561 0.561 0.583 0.583 0.605 0.605 0.626 0.626 0.648 0.648 0.669 0.669 0.689 0.709 0.709 0.728 0.728 0.747 0.765 0.783 0.783 0.799 0.815 Ready Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High High High High High High ProbExceeding 0.075 0.075 0.084 0.084 0.093 0.093 0.103 0.103 0.114 0.114 0.125 0.125 0.138 0.138 0.151 0.151 0.166 0.166 0.181 0.181 0.197 0.197 0.215 0.215 0.233 0.233 0.251 0.251 0.271 0.271 0.291 0.291 0.312 0.312 0.334 0.334 0.356 0.378 0.378 0.401 0.401 0.424 0.447 0.470 0.470 0.493 0.516 Exceeding Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY ISIP Score 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 265 266 268 270 273 277 Percentile 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 ProbClose 0.982 0.984 0.986 0.988 0.989 0.991 0.992 0.993 0.995 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.999 Close High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.830 0.844 0.857 0.869 0.881 0.891 0.901 0.911 0.927 0.934 0.946 0.957 0.969 0.980 Ready High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbExceeding 0.539 0.561 0.583 0.604 0.625 0.645 0.664 0.683 0.718 0.734 0.765 0.793 0.830 0.869 Exceeding Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High High Third Grade Table 5 shows the probability projection of third grade MOY ISIP Reading scores to predict ACT Aspire Reading performance levels. Students in third grade who obtained an ISIP Reading score of 200 to 286 (1st to 99th percentile ranks) had a high probability of achieving ACT Aspire Close or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score of 235 to 252 (31st to 66th percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving ACT Aspire Ready or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score lower than 235 (31st percentile rank) had a low probability; whereas students who obtained an ISIP Reading score higher than 252 (66th percentile rank) had a high probability of achieving ACT Aspire Ready or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score of 255 to 268 (71st to 89th percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving the ACT Aspire Exceeding level. Students who obtained an ISIP Reading score lower than 255 had low probability, whereas students who obtained an ISIP Reading score higher than 268 had a high probability of achieving the ACT Aspire Exceeding level.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Table 5: MOY Third Grade ISIP Reading to Predict ACT Aspire Reading ISIP Score Percentile 200 203 207 209 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 212 214 215 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 226 227 228 228 229 230 230 231 232 232 233 233 234 235 235 236 236 237 237 238 238 239 239 240 240 241 241 ProbClose 0.700 0.746 0.801 0.824 0.856 0.875 0.884 0.899 0.907 0.913 0.920 0.926 0.931 0.937 0.941 0.946 0.950 0.950 0.954 0.958 0.958 0.961 0.965 0.965 0.968 0.970 0.970 0.973 0.973 0.975 0.978 0.978 0.980 0.980 0.981 0.981 0.983 0.983 0.985 0.985 0.986 0.986 0.988 0.988 Close High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.047 0.058 0.076 0.086 0.104 0.117 0.124 0.138 0.146 0.154 0.163 0.172 0.181 0.191 0.201 0.211 0.222 0.222 0.234 0.245 0.245 0.258 0.270 0.270 0.283 0.297 0.297 0.311 0.311 0.326 0.341 0.341 0.356 0.356 0.372 0.372 0.389 0.389 0.406 0.406 0.423 0.423 0.441 0.441 Ready Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium ProbExceeding 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.015 0.017 0.019 0.019 0.022 0.024 0.024 0.027 0.031 0.031 0.035 0.039 0.039 0.044 0.044 0.049 0.055 0.055 0.062 0.062 0.069 0.069 0.077 0.077 0.085 0.085 0.095 0.095 0.105 0.105 Exceeding Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY ISIP Score 242 242 243 243 244 244 245 245 246 246 247 247 248 248 249 249 250 250 251 251 252 252 253 253 254 254 255 255 256 256 257 258 258 259 259 260 261 262 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 Percentile 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 ProbClose 0.989 0.989 0.990 0.990 0.991 0.991 0.992 0.992 0.993 0.993 0.994 0.994 0.994 0.994 0.995 0.995 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 Close High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.459 0.459 0.478 0.478 0.497 0.497 0.517 0.517 0.536 0.536 0.556 0.556 0.576 0.576 0.596 0.596 0.616 0.616 0.636 0.636 0.656 0.656 0.676 0.676 0.696 0.696 0.715 0.715 0.734 0.734 0.752 0.769 0.769 0.786 0.786 0.803 0.818 0.833 0.833 0.847 0.860 0.873 0.884 0.895 0.905 0.914 Ready Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbExceeding 0.117 0.117 0.129 0.129 0.142 0.142 0.156 0.156 0.171 0.171 0.188 0.188 0.205 0.205 0.223 0.223 0.242 0.242 0.263 0.263 0.284 0.284 0.306 0.306 0.329 0.329 0.352 0.352 0.376 0.376 0.401 0.425 0.425 0.450 0.450 0.475 0.501 0.525 0.525 0.550 0.574 0.598 0.621 0.643 0.665 0.686 Exceeding Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY ISIP Score 270 271 272 274 275 277 279 282 286 Percentile 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 ProbClose 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 Close High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.923 0.931 0.938 0.950 0.956 0.965 0.972 0.981 0.988 Ready High High High High High High High High High ProbExceeding 0.706 0.725 0.743 0.777 0.793 0.821 0.846 0.878 0.910 Exceeding High High High High High High High High High ISIP Math and ACT Aspire-Math Second Grade Table 6 shows the probability projection of the second grade EOY ISIP Math scores and ACT Aspire Math performance levels. Students in second grade who obtained an ISIP Math score of 387 to 625 (1st to 99th percentile ranks) had a high probability of achieving ACT Aspire performance Close or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Math score of 454 to 499 (16th to 44th percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving ACT Aspire performance Ready or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Math score lower than 454 had a low probability, whereas students who obtained an ISIP Math score higher than 499 had a high probability of achieving a level of Ready or higher. Students who obtained an ISIP Math score of 534 to 578 (70th to 91st percentile ranks) had a medium probability of achieving performance level Exceeding. Students who obtained an ISIP Math score lower than 534 had a low probability, whereas students who obtained an ISIP Math score higher than 578 had a high probability of achieving the Exceeding level.

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY Table 6: EOY of Second Grade ISIP Math to Predict ACT Aspire Math ISIP Score 387 400 409 416 421 426 430 433 437 440 442 445 448 450 452 454 457 459 461 462 464 466 468 469 471 473 474 476 477 479 480 482 483 485 486 488 489 490 492 493 494 496 497 498 500 Percentile 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 ProbClose 0.871 0.879 0.885 0.890 0.893 0.896 0.899 0.901 0.904 0.905 0.906 0.907 0.908 0.908 0.909 0.909 0.910 0.910 0.911 0.911 0.911 0.911 0.911 0.911 0.912 0.912 0.912 0.912 0.913 0.913 0.914 0.914 0.915 0.915 0.916 0.917 0.917 0.918 0.919 0.920 0.920 0.922 0.922 0.923 0.925 Close High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High ProbReady 0.071 0.100 0.126 0.150 0.169 0.191 0.209 0.223 0.244 0.260 0.271 0.289 0.307 0.319 0.332 0.345 0.365 0.379 0.392 0.399 0.414 0.428 0.442 0.449 0.464 0.479 0.486 0.501 0.508 0.523 0.531 0.546 0.553 0.568 0.575 0.590 0.598 0.605 0.619 0.627 0.634 0.648 0.655 0.662 0.676 Ready Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High ProbExceeding 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.014 0.016 0.017 0.019 0.022 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.030 0.033 0.036 0.038 0.041 0.045 0.047 0.051 0.053 0.058 0.060 0.065 0.068 0.073 0.076 0.082 0.085 0.088 0.095 0.099 0.102 0.110 0.114 0.118 0.127 Exceeding Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low

ISIP AND ACT ASPIRE LINKING STUDY ISIP Score 501 502 504 505 506 508 509 510 512 513 514 516 517 518 520 521 522 524 525 527 528 529 531 532 534 535 537 538 540 542 543 545 547 548 550 552 554 556 558 560 563 565 567 570 573 576 579 Percentile 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 ProbClose 0.925 0.926 0.928 0.928 0

uses the ACT Aspire assessments as the end-of-year tests. The ACT Aspire assessments are vertically scaled assessments that are aligned with content standards that target college and career readiness (ACT, 2019). The purpose of this study is to predict students' performance on the ACT Aspire based on their ISIP scores in reading and math.

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