Faster, Cheaper, Cleaner, Safer? Autonomous Vehicles, Shared .
Faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer? Autonomous vehicles, shared transportation, and the future of mobility September 2018
Converging forces are transforming longstanding industry structures and dynamics Maturing powertrain technologies Electric vehicle battery costs have fallen 80% in 7 years.1 China, India, the UK, France, and others plan to limit sale of new ICE vehicles in the next 10-20 years Lightweight materials Stronger and lighter materials are reducing vehicle weight without sacrificing passenger safety Rapid advances in connected vehicles New vehicles are being outfitted with vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I), vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), and communications technologies, so every car can know precisely where every other car is on the road Shifts in mobility preferences Younger generations are leading the way toward pay-per-use mobility in place of owning a car. Half of US-based ride-hailing users say it has caused them to question their need to own a car in the future2 Emergence of autonomous vehicles Autonomous drive technology is no longer a case of science fiction; the question is when and how will it become more mainstream and widely adopted Source: Deloitte analysis 1 Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2 Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study, 2017 Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2
Stakes are high – with approximately 2 trillion in revenues collected annually by the current extended auto industry Wholesale and dealer vehicle sales and service; suppliers; and mechanics Rental vehicles; taxi and limo services; private parking garages Automotive 735B Transportation Finance Auto financing 101B 59B Aftermarket parts and service channel Insurance Retail 24B Radio advertising; outdoor advertising Current extended automotive industry revenues 205B Auto insurance 2T1 Energy 573B Oil companies and gas stations Media 16B Emergency services and hospital costs; legal fees associated with accidents Medical & Legal 35B Public sector 251B Fuel, licensing, and auto sales taxes; traffic enforcement; tolls; public transportation; parking 1Total revenue is 1.99T. Source: Deloitte analysis based on IBISWorld Industry Reports, IHS, DOT, US Census, EIA, Auto News, TechCrunch. Current revenue represents 2014 figures (or earlier if 2014 data not available) in the United States. Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3
The result could be a new mobility ecosystem that provides substantial benefits Vehicles operate autonomously and nearly never crash Vehicles are consumed through end-to-end mobility providers and less likely to be personally owned assets Taxation and public revenues shift from a fixed model to a more dynamic one Seamless multi-modal transportation becomes the new norm New predominantly “driverless” cargo transportation and delivery systems emerge Consumer data provides the highest sources of value in the system Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4
Converging forces will give rise to the emergence of four future states of mobility, which will exist in parallel Autonomous Future states of mobility Vehicle technologies will increasingly become "smart”; the human-machine interface shifts toward greater machine control 3 Shared Autonomous Personally Owned Autonomous 4 Asset efficiency Low Fully autonomous drive means that the vehicle has full responsibility for controlling its operation. It is fundamentally different from the most advanced form of driver assist. High Assisted key factors as catalysts or deterrents—e.g., technology, regulation, social acceptance Driver Depends upon several Vehicle control Extent to which autonomous vehicle technologies become pervasive: 1 Personally Owned Driver-Driven Personal 2 Shared Driver-Driven Vehicle ownership Shared Extent to which vehicles are personally owned or shared: Depends upon personal preferences and economics Higher degree of shared ownership increases system-wide asset efficiency Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 5
Our forecasts estimate an increase in total miles traveled, a decline in overall vehicle sales, and faster shifts in urban centers towards AVs and shared vehicles Adoption by Geography 2040: Passenger miles driven increases by 25% 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Urban 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2,500,000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2035 2040 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Percent of annual miles driven, in millions Annual Miles Driven in Millions 5,000,000 Percent of annual miles driven, in millions People Miles Driven by Future State Rural 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Introduction of shared (2020) and personally-owned (2022) autonomous vehicles Personally owned driver-driven Shared driver-driven Personally owned autonomous 2020 2025 2030 Shared autonomous Source: Scott Corwin, Nick Jameson, Craig Giffi, and Joe Vitale, Gearing for change: Preparing for transformation in the automotive ecosystem, Deloitte University Press, September 29, 2016. Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 6
Easter Sunday, Fifth Ave., New York City, 1900 Tony Seba, tonyseba.com, 2014 Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 7
Easter Sunday, Fifth Ave., New York City, 1913 Tony Seba, tonyseba.com, 2014 Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 8
There are a number of forces that will influence the rate at which the new mobility ecosystem takes shape Forces of Delay or Acceleration Regulation & Government Privacy and Security Federal, state and local policies Cyber-security, communication protocols Public Attitudes Wall Street Valuations Human-machine interface, safety, shared economy Technology investments, cost of capital projections Technology Development Early experiments, pilot programs Employment Changes Dislocation effects, reactions, job retraining Source: Corwin, Vitale, Kelly, Cathles, The future of mobility. Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 9
Let us explore how people will likely experience a seamless intermodal journey in the future Meet Ben he is a millennial living just outside the city he wants to pick up groceries he is ready go home after a long day at work Let’s explore his journey home and the supporting ecosystem Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10
The future of mobility: Ben’s journey Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 11
The Deloitte City Mobility Index – A global initiative covering 54 cities in 2018 Three key themes: Performance & Resilience, Vision & Leadership, and Service & Inclusion Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 12
Across our 54 cities, several key points stood out in the initial findings 1. What’s past is prologue History plays a role—but is not destiny Current transport systems are a result of decisions made over years Authorities must tackle and transform existing systems Cities can overcome past legacies with innovative approaches ex Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 13
Across our 54 cities, several key points stood out in the initial findings (cont.) 2. Integration is key Include a wide range of players Good coordination should exist between different players: central/local, public/private, suburb/city, regulator/operator This makes it easier to join up Timetables Transport modes coverage payment systems Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 14
Across our 54 cities, several key points stood out in the initial findings (cont.) 3. Cars do have a role But they must be managed Can be utilized as part of wider, integrated system Can play an important role in firstmile/last-mile journeys They must be “right-sized” for the local conditions: infrastructure, commuter culture, who they share the road with ex Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 15
Chicago has an extensive and affordable public transport system that is well-integrated, secure, and easy to use. Still, the majority of Chicagoans choose to drive. It has strong leadership that promotes public transport as the preferred mode and ambitious targets for digital and technological options. Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 16
To date, congestion and pollution have been managed, but with a growing population this will not always be the case. Columbus already scores poorly on quality-of-life indicators, and these problems are likely to be exacerbated in the future absent investment in more accessible and active modes of transport. The award of the Smart City Challenge fund has the potential to transform Columbus’s transport system. Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 17
A new mobility ecosystem will emerge delivering seamless intermodal transportation faster, cheaper, and safer than today Opportunity Space Development and Mfg. Experience Enabler Infrastructure Enabler Mobility Manager Mobility Advisor Digital Infrastructure In-Transit Vehicle Experience Start Physical Infrastructure Fleet Operations Finish Energy Infrastructure Vehicles Facilitating Ecosystems Pricing, Payments and Insurance Copyright 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 18
About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of DTTL and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ("DTTL"), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as "Deloitte Global") does not
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Page 2 Autonomous Systems Working Group Charter n Autonomous systems are here today.How do we envision autonomous systems of the future? n Our purpose is to explore the 'what ifs' of future autonomous systems'. - 10 years from now what are the emerging applications / autonomous platform of interest? - What are common needs/requirements across different autonomous
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‘Tom Sawyer!’ said Aunt Polly. Then she laughed. ‘He always plays tricks on me,’ she said to herself. ‘I never learn.’ 8. 9 It was 1844. Tom was eleven years old. He lived in St Petersburg, Missouri. St Petersburg was a town on the Mississippi River, in North America. Tom’s parents were dead. He lived with his father’s sister, Aunt Polly. Tom was not clean and tidy. He did not .
