HURRICANE READINESS L‐311

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3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSL‐311HURRICANE READINESSAdministrative DetailsADMIN DETAILS Course application – FF119‐25‐2 Student Identification (SID) Number required Include your email address Sign the application EMI Evaluation Form (scantron) Evaluate instruction and content Provide comments and suggestions EMI certificate Must attend the entire course to receive credit EMI certificates will be sent via email1

3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSAdministrative DetailsSTUDENT IDENTIFICATION (SID) https://cdp.dhs.gov/femasid Select ‘Register for a FEMA SID’ Follow instructions and you will receivean email with your SID # If you think you have an SID # Call 866.291.0696HURRICANE READINESSEvaluationsAPPROPRIATE WORDING:) “This has been the best learning experience!” “The instructors totally blew me away with theirinsightful knowledge and presentation skills.” “I feel 1000% ready for the next hurricanethreat.” “You had me at hurricanes.”2

3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSEvaluationsSTATE CODES Texas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Florida Georgia South Carolina49222902121345 North Carolina Virginia Maryland DC3151241008112425233435 New York Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Virgin Islands Vermont3842435253HURRICANE READINESSEvaluationsSTATE CODES Connecticut Delaware Maryland Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey3

3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSL‐311HURRICANE READINESSHurricane Basics4

3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSThere is a Storm. What’s the Info?HURRICANE READINESSIncreasing ErrorForecast Uncertainty. What, Me Worry?012345Forecast Period (Days)5

3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSMaking Better DecisionsHURRICANE READINESSA Short CourseAGENDA Hurricane Basics: Lifecycle, Climatologyand Hazards830 am – 10 am There is a Storm. What’s the info?1030 am – 12 pm Forecast Uncertainty. What, Me Worry?130 pm – 3 pm Making Better Decisions330 pm – 5 pm6

3/26/2018HURRICANE READINESSA Short CourseUNIT ONEHurricane BasicsHURRICANE BASICSLife Cycle. Climatology. Hazards.7

3/26/2018TROPICAL CYCLONESHurricane. Typhoon. Tropical Storm.TROPICAL CYCLONES Large, long‐lived low pressure system(Can be hundreds of miles wide, lasting for days) Forms over sub/tropical oceans No fronts attached Produces organizedthunderstorm activity Has a closed surface windcirculation arounda well‐defined centerTROPICAL CYCLONESClassified by Maximum Wind Speed– Tropical Depression: 39 mph– Tropical Storm: 39‐73 mph– Hurricane: 74 mph or greater Major Hurricane: 111 mph or greater8

3/26/2018TROPICAL CYCLONESSurface Circulation? Organized?TROPICAL CYCLONESErnesto 2006Advisory #1 issuedbased on aircraft dataL9

3/26/2018CYCLONESTropical, Subtropical and ExtratropicalHurricane Katrina 2005March Superstorm 1993Subtropical Storm Ana 2015TROPICAL CYCLONESAtlantic since 1851. Pacific since 1949.10

3/26/2018MAJOR HURRICANESAtlantic since 1851. Pacific since 1949.CLIMATOLOGYWhat do you know?QUIZ QUESTIONWhat month has the most hurricane activity in the Atlantic?A.B.C.D.DecemberAugustJuneSeptember11

3/26/2018CLIMATOLOGYAtlantic Hurricanes & Tropical StormsCLIMATOLOGYJune Formation Areas On average about 1 storm every other year. Most June storms form in the NW Caribbean Seaor Gulf of Mexico.12

3/26/2018CLIMATOLOGYJuly Formation Areas On average about 1 storm every year. July development areas spread east and covers thewestern Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.CLIMATOLOGYAugust Formation Areas On average about 2‐3 storms form each year. The Cape Verde season usually begins in August.13

3/26/2018CLIMATOLOGYSeptember Formation Areas September is the climatological peak of the season. Storms can form nearly anywhere in the basin;Long track Cape Verde storms.CLIMATOLOGYOctober Formation Areas Secondary peak of season in mid‐October. Cape Verde season ends. Development area shiftsback to the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic.14

3/26/2018CLIMATOLOGYNovember Formation Areas On average about 1 storm ever other year. Storms that do form typically develop in centralCaribbean or western Atlantic.HURRICANE LIFECYCLECape Verde Hurricanestropicaldisturbance15

3/26/2018HURRICANE LIFECYCLECape Verde HurricanestropicaldisturbanceHURRICANE LIFECYCLECape Verde Hurricanestropicaldepressiontropicaldisturbance16

3/26/2018HURRICANE LIFECYCLECape Verde RICANE LIFECYCLECape Verde Hurricaneshurricanetropicalstorm17

3/26/2018HURRICANE LIFECYCLECape Verde E LIFECYCLECape Verde stormtropicaldepressiontropicaldisturbance18

3/26/2018HURRICANE LIFECYCLEHurricane Bill (2009)HURRICANE FORECASTINGWhat do you know?QUIZ QUESTIONWhich of these are ingredients for hurricane development?A.B.C.D.E.Warm WaterCold AirLots of MoistureStrong Winds AloftIcebergs19

3/26/2018HURRICANE LIFECYCLEIngredients for FormationBUILDING BLOCKSFUEL1) A pre‐existingdisturbance(vorticity or spin)4) Warm sea‐surfacetemperatures(usually at least 80 F)2) Location several degreesnorth of the equator5) Unstable atmosphere(temperature goesdown as you go up)3) Little change in windspeed and/ordirection with height(vertical wind shear)6) High atmosphericmoisture content(relative humidity)HURRICANE FORECASTINGPre‐existing DisturbancesDISTURBANCES Tropical Waves About 70% of all Atlantic basin formations Most major hurricanes Decaying cold fronts Formation often near Gulf and SE States Typically early or late season storms Non‐tropical lows and thunderstorm complexes Often subtropical systems20

3/26/2018HURRICANE FORECASTINGStorm Motion and TrackFORECASTING Track forecast is usually controlledby large‐scale weather features Cork in the stream analogy Numerical computer modelsforecast track quite wellLLH Constantly upgrading model physicsand resolution Long ago surpassed statistical modelsin accuracyHURRICANE FORECASTINGFactors that Influence IntensityINTENSITY FACTORS Upper Ocean TemperaturesMore heat favors a stronger storm Interaction with Land/TopographyMore land increases weakening Vertical Wind ShearShear limits strengthening Moisture in Storm EnvironmentDry air can limit strengthening Structural Changes, Eyewall ReplacementDifficult to forecast and not straightforward Interactions with other weather systems21

3/26/2018HURRICANE FORECASTINGOne size does not fit all.CharleyWilmaHURRICANE HAZARDSWhat do you know?QUIZ QUESTIONWhich hazard has the greatest potential for large loss of life?A.B.C.D.WindRain induced floodingTornadoesStorm Surge22

3/26/2018HURRICANE HAZARDSWater is responsible for vast majorityFATALITIESU.S. tropical cyclone fatalities– from 1963 ‐ 2012HURRICANE HAZARDSSurge. Wind. Flood. Tornadoes. Waves.WindStorm SurgeWaves / Rip CurrentsTornadoesInland Flooding23

3/26/2018HURRICANE WINDSSaffir‐Simpson ScaleSAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE Estimates wind damageMAJOR HURRICANESTROPICALSTORM39 – 73 mph(34 – 63 kt)CATEGORY 1.74 – 95 mph(64 – 82 03)CATEGORY 2.96 – 110 mph(83 – 95 kt)CATEGORY 3.111 – 129 mph(96 – 112 kt)CATEGORY 4.130 – 156 mph(113 – 136 kt)CATEGORY 5. 156 mph( 136 ICANE WINDSCategory 1 (74 – 95 mph)CATEGORY ONE Some Damage– Well‐constructed frame homes could have roof damage.– Large branches of trees will snap and shallow‐rooted trees may topple.– Damage to power lines and poles; Outages could last a few to several daysHumberto (2007) Southeast TXClaudette (2003) Palacios, TXLili (2002) Louisiana24

3/26/2018HURRICANE WINDSCategory 2 (96 – 110 mph)CATEGORY TWO Extensive Damage– Well‐constructed frame homes could sustain major roof damage.– Many shallow‐rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted.– Near total power loss is expected that could last several days to weeks.Ike (2008) Houston, TXJuan (2003) Halifax, NSWilma (2005) SE FloridaHURRICANE WINDSCategory 3 (111– 129 mph)CATEGORY THREE Devastating Damage– Well‐built framed homes may incur major damage.– Many trees will be snapped or uprooted.– Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks.Jeanne (2004) Cape Canaveral, FLRita (2005) Orange, TXRita (2005) Orange, TX25

3/26/2018HURRICANE WINDSCategory 4 (130 – 156 mph)CATEGORY FOUR Catastrophic Damage– Well‐built framed homes can sustain severe damage.– Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed.– Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.Charley (2004) Punta Gorda, FLHugo (1989) Sullivans Island, SCIke (2008) Holguin, CubaHURRICANE WINDSCategory 5 ( 156 mph)CATEGORY FIVE Catastrophic Damage– A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed.– Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas.– Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.Andrew (1992) Florida City, FLFelix (2007) NicaraguaAndrew (1992) South Dade, FL26

3/26/2018STORM SURGEGreatest potential for large loss of life.Hurricane Sandy (2012)73 deaths 65 billion damageHurricane Katrina (2005)1200 deaths 108 billion damageSTORM SURGEStorm Surge vs Storm TideSTORM SURGEAn abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predictedastronomical tide.STORM TIDEThe water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide.27

3/26/2018STORM SURGE HISTORYGulf CoastHurricane Katrina (2005)Hurricane Rita (2005)Hurricane Georges (1998)Hurricane Ike (2008)STORM SURGE HISTORYWaveland, MississippiKimberly and David King28

3/26/2018STORM SURGE HISTORYSoutheastHurricane Isabel (2003)TS Fay (2008)Hurricane Hugo (1989)Hurricane Jeanne (2004)STORM SURGE HISTORYMid‐AtlanticHurricane Isabel (2003)Hurricane Sandy (2012)Hurricane Isabel (2003)Hurricane Sandy (2012)29

3/26/2018STORM SURGE HISTORYNew EnglandHurricane Carol (1954)Hurricane Irene (2011)1938 HurricaneHurricane Sandy (2012)STORM SURGEFactors Affecting Storm SurgeSTORM SURGE FACTORS IntensityStronger storm More storm surge Size (Radius of Maximum Winds)Larger More storm surge Forward SpeedSlower storm Storm surge farther inland Width and Slope of Shelf (Bathymetry)Gradual sloping shelf More storm surge Angle of ApproachAlters focus of storm surge30

3/26/2018STORM SURGEWhat’s the effect of intensity?15 mph strongerSTORM SURGEWhat’s the effect of size?31

3/26/2018STORM SURGEWhat’s the effect of forward speed?SlowSpeedFastSpeed(25(5 mph)mph) HigherMore inlandmaximumpenetrationSTORM SURGELocation. Location. Location.Category 4 Hurricane32

3/26/2018STORM SURGEWhat’s the effect of width/slope of shelf?Wide shelf – Gentle slopeNarrow shelf – Sharp slopeSTORM SURGEWave Setup33

3/26/2018STORM SURGEComponents of ‘Total Water Level’Total Water LevelStorm surge Tides Wave Setup FreshwaterFRESHWATER FLOODINGU.S. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone DeathsFATALITIESU.S. tropical cyclone fatalities– from 1963 ‐ 201234

3/26/2018FRESHWATER FLOODINGFlash Floods. Riverine Flooding.Times HeraldMansfield HeliflightReutersUS Army Corps of EngineersFRESHWATER FLOODINGHurricane Harvey (2017) – Houston, TX35

3/26/2018FRESHWATER FLOODINGHurricane Harvey (2017) – Houston, TXFRESHWATER FLOODINGInterstate 10 – Houston, TXInterstate 10 – West View36

3/26/2018FRESHWATER FLOODINGTS Allison (2001) – Houston, TXInterstate 10 – West ViewHouston ChronicleFRESHWATER FLOODINGHurricane Irene (2007) – New York and VermontPhoto courtesy of L. Gange, Mansfield HelifightPrattsville, NY Damage (Jimmy Vielkind/Times Union)37

3/26/2018FRESHWATER FLOODINGHurricane Irene (2007) – New York and VermontRochester, VT Flash FloodingGilboa Dam – Significant scouring & erosionFRESHWATER FLOODINGFactors Affecting Tropical Cyclone RainfallRAINFALL FACTORS Forward SpeedSlower storm More rain SizeLarger storm More rain Topography / MountainsMore rain on windward side Fronts / Upper‐level troughsEnhance rainfall38

3/26/2018FRESHWATER FLOODINGTS Alberto (2016)COOLER & STABLELand‐Based AirmassWARM & UNSTABLETropical AirmassTROPICAL STORM ALBERTOJune 11-15, 2006FRESHWATER FLOODINGHurricane Harvey (2017)39

3/26/2018TORNADOESLandfalling hurricanes spawn tornadoes.TORNADOES 70% produce at least 1 tornado 40% produce more than 3 tornadoes15, 2004Sept 17,16,Tornado “outbreak”Hurricane Ivan (2004)– 117 TornadoesTORNADOESLandfalling hurricanes spawn tornadoes.Right Front QuadrantFriction over land createslow‐level wind conditionsfavorable for the developmentof tornadoes40

3/26/2018WAVES AND RIP CURRENTSCan occur when a storm is well offshoreSwells from a large hurricanecan affect the beach of theentire western AtlanticHurricane Bertha (2008)‐ Over 1500 rescues inOcean City, Maryland‐ 3 people drowned alongthe coast of New JerseyHurricane Bill (2009)‐ 1 person died in Maine‐ 1 person died in FloridaHURRICANE BASICSQuestions?41

3/26/2018 7 UNIT ONE Hurricane Basics HURRICANE READINESS A Short Course HURRICANE BASICS Life Cycle. Climatology. Hazards. 3/26/2018 8 TROPICAL CYCLONES Hurricane. Typhoon. Tropical Storm.

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