CLIMATE RISK PROFILE SRI LANKA
FACT SHEETCLIMATE RISK PROFILESRI LANKACOUNTRY OVERVIEWLocated in the Indian Ocean, off the Southwest Coast ofIndia, Sri Lanka is a small island nation with a physicallydiverse geography and tropical climate. With a land areaof 65,610 square kilometers (km2) and 1,340 km ofcoastline, Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to the impacts ofclimate change. As of July 2017, the estimatedpopulation of Sri Lanka is over 22 million, with roughly 50percent of inhabitants living in coastal areas on the West,South-west, and Southern coasts of the island. Thecommercial Capitol of Colombo has the highestpopulation density with 21,000 inhabitants per km2. SriLanka has made great strides in the last 20 years toincrease incomes and reduce poverty, now meeting mostMillennium Development Goals. Much of this progressfaces significant threat from the impacts of climateMONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SRI LANKAchange. Primary economic drivers, including tourism,commercial agriculture, and manufacturing are extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events and sealevel rise. In addition, deforestation, soil erosion, and loss of biodiversity also threaten to reduce the country’seconomic output. The Sri Lankan government has made great progress in improving quality of life for most ofthe population, with large development projects providing piped water, electricity, and access to healthservices. However, even as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita continues to climb, having reachedUSD 13,000 in 2017, Sri Lanka still suffers from substantial income inequality and rural poverty. The countryhas a low unemployment rate (4 percent) and much of its GDP is generated by the service industry, includingtourism, which employs 45.9 percent of the population. (1,2,3,4,5,7,9,13)November 2018This document was prepared under the Climate Integration Support Facility Blanket Purchase Agreement AID-OAA-E-17-0008, OrderNumber AID-OAA-BC-17-00042, and is meant to provide a brief overview of climate risk issues. The key resources at the end of thedocument provide more in-depth country and sectoral analysis. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID.
CLIMATE SUMMARYThe island nation of Sri Lanka possesses a hot and humid tropical climate, but with significant differencesacross variations in topography. Average annual rainfall is below 1,000 millimeters (mm) in the semi-aridNorthwest, but above 5,000 mm in the central hills of the Southwest. Across the island, rainfall comes in fourdistinct seasons: the Southwest monsoon season from May to September, often exceeding 3,000 mm ofprecipitation in the wettest regions; a relatively dry inter-monsoon period from October to November; theNortheast monsoon season from December to February, contributing between 200 mm and 1,200 mm ofprecipitation, mostly in the wettest regions; and finally, another relatively dry inter-monsoon season fromMarch to April. These seasonal variations, along with topography, divide Sri Lanka into three zones: the WetZone, the Intermediate Zone, and the Dry Zone. Precipitation patterns are influenced by El Niño and La Niñaconditions and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. These rains help support robust and extremelybiodiverse forests, covering over 19,500 km2 or 30% of the island, of which around 14,000 km2 are denseforests. However, deforestation is rapidly reducing the forest cover of Sri Lanka and just one third of naturalcover remains. This loss of forest cover can contribute to erosion and landslide risk. Temperatures fluctuatevery little on an annual basis, with mean average temperatures ranging between 26 C and 28 C in coastalareas and between 15 C and 19 C at higher altitudes above 1500 meters (m). Historically, Sri Lankaexperiences relatively moderate cyclone events, mostly in the Northern region. However, cyclone-relatedstorm surges and coastal erosion are already a major threat to population centers. (1,2,3,4,5,6,11,13)HISTORICAL CLIMATEFUTURE CLIMATEClimate trends include: Increase in mean annual temperature of 0.2 Cper decade between 1961 and 1990. Increase in mean daytime maximumtemperatures of 1 C between 1961 and 2001. Increase in mean nighttime minimumtemperatures of 0.7 C between 1961 and 2001. Decrease in island-wide mean annualprecipitation of 144 mm between 1961 and 1990. Increase in frequency and intensity of floods. Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts. Uncertain rates of sea level rise around SriLanka, specifically, but accelerated rates acrossAsia with increases of 3.1 mm per year from1993 – 2003, compared to 1.7 mm to 2.4 mm peryear for the 20th century. (2,3,5,7,9)Projected changes include: Increase in mean annual temperature ofbetween 0.8 C and 2 C by 2060. Increase in both daily maximum and minimumtemperatures of between 0.7 C and 0.8 C by2050. Projections of change in precipitation vary, withsome predicting decreases and some increases,but generally indicate an increase in variabilityand extreme events. Increase in cyclone frequency and intensity. Increased frequency and severity of floods,drought incidence, and landslides. Total sea level rise of between 0.2 and 0.6meters by mid-century, compared to 1971-2010levels. (2,3,5,7,9)SECTOR IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIESCOASTAL ZONES AND ECOSYSTEMSWith 1,340 km of coastline and 25 percent of thepopulation living in areas vulnerable to sea level rise(within 1 km of the coast), Sri Lanka’s coastal zonesface serious threat from sea-level rise caused byclimate change, which could amplify existing hazardsfrom tsunamis and cyclones. Being a small islandnation with rich and numerous marine and coastalecosystems, inhabitants of Sri Lankan coastlines relyheavily on fisheries, with nearly a quarter of a millionfamilies making their living on coastal and offshorefishing. Coastal ecosystems and livelihoods thatdepend on them are under direct threat from cyclones,Climate Stressors and Climate RisksCOASTAL ZONES & ECOSYSTEMSStressorsRisksShoreline erosionSea level riseIncreased stormsurgeIncreased seasurfacetemperaturesOceanacidificationSaltwater intrusion into aquifersand agricultural areasLoss of ocean and near inlandbiodiversityCoral bleachingDamage to coastal infrastructureEconomic lossPopulation displacementCLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE 1
sea level rise, sea surface temperature rise, and ocean acidification. If climate conditions fulfill currentlypredicted trends, as listed in the stressors and risks table for this section, many coastal livelihood activitieswill become more difficult and place a larger proportion of the population under increased economic stress.Furthermore, these same changes in climate conditions will have an adverse effect on the tourism industry,which is closely related to, and largely dependent on, coastal and marine biodiversity and recreation. Risingsea levels and storm surges are expected to erode shorelines, degrade the health of coastal ecosystems,and potentially displace coastal populations. Mangroves and other forms of coastal vegetation offerprotection and reduce vulnerability to tsunamis and cyclones, but less than one-third of the island isprotected in this way and these areas are under pressure from development. By causing sea-level to rise,climate change could reduce the protection from coastal vegetation by 37 percent. Local authorities haverecognized the benefits of coastal vegetation, though additional efforts to restore vegetation and hardenunprotected coastlines may be needed. (15,16) Additionally, tourism activities are inherently vulnerable toadverse environmental conditions brought on by drought, floods, and cyclones. While tourism hastraditionally been a healthy industry, these climate stressors will increasingly threaten the ability to providevisitors with a safe and attractive destination. Beyond the beach, near-coastal areas also include fertile stripsof land that are critical for production of rice and coconuts, two major exports and nutritional staples. Theseareas are also under threat from saltwater intrusion and extreme weather events, particularly drought, asmany coastal areas already receive the least precipitation on the island. Near-coastal areas are alsovulnerable to flooding, as surplus water from the wet zone diverted to these plains for irrigation often exceedswhat the landscape can handle. The manufacturing and agricultural sectors rely upon onshore and offshoreinfrastructure to export goods. Damage to these systems has the potential to reduce economic output acrossthe Sri Lankan economy. (1,2,3,5,6,7,13)WATER RESOURCESAvailability, distribution, and use of water for agriculture, human consumption, energy generation, andindustry are all directly dependent on climateClimate Stressors and Climate Risksconditions. Water availability is a critical concern,WATER RESOURCESparticularly for drinking water. Climate change threatensStressorsRisksboth surface water and groundwater sources uponDamage to drinking and stormwhich Sri Lankans depend for domestic use. Forwater infrastructureIncreasedexample, more frequent and severe flooding canevapotranspiration Saltwater intrusion intoincrease risk of water and vector-borne illness andaquifers and croplandmake it more difficult to maintain sanitary livingSea level riseReduced water availability forconditions. Increased and worsening droughts, alongagriculturewith salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers, areIncreased droughtfrequency andDecreased or unpredictableexpected to seriously deplete freshwater availability.durationhydropower generationIncreased economic activity is already leading to a highlevel of groundwater extraction and pollution of existingDifficulty maintainingIncreased stormsanitation systems andresources. High altitude regions in the central part offrequency andpracticesthe island intercept moisture rich monsoonal winds,intensityIncreased adverse healthforming 103 distinct natural river basins across theeffectsisland and 94 smaller coastal basins. The country’s wetzone reliably receives plentiful rainfall, while theintermediate and dry zones receive little rainfall and rely on both natural and artificial distribution of waterfrom the wet zone. Although the total amount of rainfall the island receives is enough to meet domestic andenvironmental requirements, this uneven distribution of water is problematic, with much of the dry zoneexperiencing months of drought, while the surface water that flows from the wet zone is artificially dischargedinto lowlands, often causing flooding and waterlogging. Sri Lanka generates 41% of its electricity viahydroelectric plants. Flood conditions have the potential to worsen, as hydroelectric systems are required todischarge increasing volumes of wet zone rainfall from overburdened reservoir structures. Hydroelectricinfrastructure is also vulnerable to drought conditions, as they are designed to utilize historical levels ofrainfall and could underproduce during prolonged dry periods. Rivers in the wet zone of the country feedCLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE 2
agricultural irrigation systems, which covers 13 percent of cropped land, some of which is double-cropped.Increased drought and flood frequency and severity from a changing climate can be expected to strain thesesystems, particularly in the dry zone where 70 percent of rice paddies are located. These areas, alreadyprone to drought, may face more extreme fluctuations in growing conditions. Additionally, increasingtemperatures will likely increase the rate of evapotranspiration for holding tanks and in rice paddies, furtherexacerbating water shortage issues. With high poverty rates, high exposure to drought, and largedependence on agriculture, the three most water vulnerable irrigation districts are Thanamalwila(Moneragala District), Anamaduwa (Puttalam District), and Horowpothana (Anuradhapura District).Conversely, increased rainfall in the wet zone will likely lead to greater flood and erosion risk. In recognitionof the problems imposed by uneven distribution of precipitation, rainwater harvesting for both humanconsumption and for agricultural use is on the rise, as are shade tree management practices and morerobust land suitability assessments. (2,4,5,8,9,13)HEALTHClimate Stressors and Climate RisksHaving made great strides with its health system inHEALTHrecent years, Sri Lanka is a leader among developingStressorsRiskscountries and provides universal health care through itsMinistry of Health. However, increased vulnerability inShifts in vector- and waterborneIncreaseddiseasesthe face of climate change will likely prove challenging.temperaturesThis is especially true for vector-borne illnesses,Decreased nutrition and foodparticularly dengue fever. Spread by mosquitos,securityIncreaseddengue outbreaks are occurring with higher frequencydroughtReduced availability andand severity as conditions improve for the insectfrequency andincreased disruption of healthdurationpopulations. During 2017, Sri Lanka faced anservicesexceptionally high number of dengue cases, 4.3 timesReduced water quality andIncreased stormthe 2010-2016 average. There were 189 thousandavailabilityfrequency andcases of suspected dengue reported, with 302 deaths.intensityDifficulty maintaining sanitationThe dengue virus that caused this outbreak was not thesystems and practicesusual one circulating in Sri Lanka.(17) Urbanization,overcrowding, increased daytime and nighttimetemperatures, and poor water management practices pose serious public health risks, as they are conduciveto mosquito breeding and subsequent spreading of dengue. Leptospirosis, a rodent-borne disease, is also aserious concern in Sri Lanka, with outbreaks typically occurring following monsoon seasons, which areexpected to intensify. Food insecurity and malnutrition are also critical concerns, with 29 percent of childrenunder five underweight. The impacts of changing climate conditions on both agricultural and fishing yieldsmay further exacerbate food insecurity. Food and waterborne illnesses, such as typhoid, dysentery, and viralhepatitis may be affected by increased flood and drought risks. Direct weather-related health risks are alsoexpected to increase. This is particularly true for the 28 percent of the population working in agriculturalfields, with thermal stress and heat-related illness being of greatest concern. Increased frequency andseverity of cyclones, floods, and landslides may elevate the risk of acute injury and displacement, coupledwith decreasing access to services. Awareness of the health risks associated with climate change isgenerally limited among the general public and also uneven within the Ministry of Health. (2,4,5,8,9,13)AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITYSri Lanka’s agricultural sector comprises 7.8 percent of GDP and occupies 28 percent of the labor force.Consequently, the adverse effects of a changing climate will create strain on Sri Lanka’s domestic market,food security, and export potential. Stagnating sorghum and cowpea yields and declines in rice yields aremarkers of currently diminished agricultural productivity, leading to increases in food insecurity in agriculturalregions, especially the most heavily drought-afflicted low country dry and intermediate zones. Additionally,poor infrastructure in rural areas severely constrains farmers in bringing goods-to-market. Risingtemperatures, as well as increased frequency and severity of drought and flooding, will likely exacerbateCLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE 3
these existing challenges. The main crops in Sri Lanka,Climate Stressors and Climate Risksnamely various types of rice, tea, and coconut, areAGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITYparticularly sensitive to variation in temperature andStressorsRisksprecipitation. Variability in distribution and amounts ofSoil erosionSea level riseprecipitation are the primary concerns for Sri Lanka’sIncreasedagricultural sector, both currently and for predictedSaltwater intrusion intotemperaturesaquifers and croplandconditions. Changing rainfall patterns and unexpectedVariability inperiods of high rainfall are expected to strain theReduced crop yieldsdistribution andcapacity of irrigation systems and increase the risk ofamount oflandslide in some areas. Flooding may also increasinglyCrop failuresprecipitationbecome a limiting factor for yields, potentially causingIncreased drought Increased malnutritioncrop failures. Despite recent positive economic growthfrequency andOverload of irrigation systemsin sectors outside of agriculture, income inequality in Sridurationleading to floodLanka remains an issue. As a result, various types offood insecurity and malnutrition are still prevalent and show high regional disparity. In the estate andplantation (rural) sectors of the country, levels of stunting are three times higher than in urban areas (24percent vs. 8 percent). As yields and economic output of Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector decrease or remainstagnant in the face of changing climate conditions, this disparity is likely to worsen. Furthermore, many ofthe fertile strips of land that support rice and coconut production are located in coastal areas. Groundwatersalinization and coastal erosion resulting from sea level rise threaten crop production and the settlements ofmany farmers. (1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,13)INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRYClimate Stressors and Climate RisksSri Lanka’s economy has experienced rapid growth inINFRASTRUCTURE & INDUSTRYrecent years, growing at an average rate of 6.4 percentStressorsRisksbetween 2010 and 2015. Accompanying this growthIncreased energy costshas been a transition away from a primarily ruralIncreased stormagrarian economy to an urban, services-basedDamage to transportation andfrequency andeconomy with a corresponding increase in electricityimport/export infrastructureintensitydemand. Sri Lanka has been able to meet much of thisReduced tourism industryCoastal erosiondemand, providing electricity to 94 percent of thepopulation using an energy mix of 54 percent importedReduced commercialIncreased stormdevelopmentpetroleum-based fossil fuels, 41 percent hydroelectric,surgeand 4 percent other renewables. The large portion ofReduced economic outputelectricity generated by hydroelectric plants, however,faces challenges. Generation facilities and reservoir infrastructure have been designed for historical rainfallpatterns and volumes. Changing rainfall patterns are likely to affect supply, and projected increases in heavyprecipitation may overburden and potentially cause damage to these systems and reduce generatingcapacity. This is particularly problematic for the service and industrial sector, which rely heavily on theavailability of energy to function. In addition to energy, many industrial processes themselves requiresubstantial volumes of water to operate. More frequent and prolonged periods of drought could severelystrain these activities. The impact on Sri Lanka’s economic health could be significant, as industry andservices account for 30 percent and 62 percent of GDP, respectively. In addition, landslides, sea level rise,and cyclones have the ability to damage infrastructure of all types, and particularly transportationinfrastructure. Such climate stressors could affect exports, which tallied 10.9 billion in 2017. All aspects ofthe manufacturing and transportation of goods have the potential to be dramatically affected by changingclimate conditions and worsening storms. Increased difficulty and uncertainly in generating energy couldincrease costs and economic risk. At the same time, the appeal of Sri Lanka as a tourist destination may alsobecome reduced if energy becomes constrained and infrastructure is damaged or destroyed. (1,2,5,9,12,13).CLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE 4
POLICY CONTEXTBeing a developing island nation with rich biodiversity in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, the impactsand risks of climate change are hig
India, Sri Lanka is a small island nation with a physically diverse geography and tropical climate. With a land area of 65,610 square kilometers (km 2) and 1,340 km of coastline, Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As of July 2017, th
Coastal Areas in Western Province, Sri lanka," Journal of Environmental Professionals Sri Lanka, vol. 3, 2014. [15] "Clean Air in Sri Lanka: Summary of progress on improving air qulity," Country Network Sri Lanka, 2008. [16] D. S. R. O. S. Lanka, national environmental act, No. 47 of 1980, Department of government printing, Sri Lanka, 2009.
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source of imports to Sri Lanka) while Sri Lanka's exports to India stood at 5.8% of overall exports of Sri Lanka (3rd largest destination of Sri Lankan exports) with total trade between the two countries amounting to US 4.2 billion. The ISFTA has made a substantial contribution in
Sri Lanka: Ethnic Fratricide and the Dismantling of Democracy (University of Chicago Press 1991) 93-102. 7. Michael Roberts, ‘Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka and Sinhalese Perspectives: Barriers to Accommodation’ (1978) 12 (3) Modern Asian Studies 353. 8. Roshan de Silva Wijeyeratne, Nation, Constitutionalism and Buddhism in Sri Lanka
ber 2007; N 134, Sri Lanka’s Muslims: Ca ught in the Crossfire, 29 May 2007. For analysis of the nearly three-decade civil war and insurgency of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), see Crisis Group Asia Reports N 125, Sri Lanka: The Failure of the Peace Process, 28 November 2006, and N 191, War Crimes in Sri Lanka, 17 May 2010.
II. OVERVIEW OF SRI LANKA DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 6 2.1 Summary 7 2.2 Sri Lanka’s performance in achieving the MDGs 8 2.3 Sri Lanka – Overview of the post-conflict political situation since 2009 10 2.4 Sri Lanka’s economic growth 13 2.4.1 Poverty and exclusion 13 2.4.2 Unemployment 14 2.
Excellence Model and its suitability for measuring the levels of business excellence is being demonstrated. The second part is dedicated to the exploration and presentation of alternative ways for attaining the highest possible levels of excellence, while, in the third part a comprehensive comparison among them is being conducted. Finally, in the fourth part, the basic findings are summarized .
