G20 Profile - China - Global Elecricity Review 2021
Global ElectricityReview 2021G20 ProfileCHINAChina was the only G20 countryto see large increase in coalgeneration in 2020March 2021
AuthorsMuyi YangXunpeng ShiAditya LollaPeer ReviewersA Prof. Peng Wang, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of SciencesPublished dateMarch 2021About Ember’sGlobal ElectricityReviewThis annual report analyses electricity data from every country inthe world to give the first accurate view of the global electricitytransition in 2020. It aggregates generation data by fuel by countryfrom 2000. 68 countries comprising 90% of world electricitygeneration have full-year data to 2020 and have formed thebasis of an estimate for changes in worldwide generation. Allremaining countries have full data as far as 2019. G20 countries,which comprise 84% of world electricity generation, each have aseparate in-depth country analysis. All the data can be viewed anddownloaded freely from Ember’s eview-2021DisclaimerThe information in this report is complete and correct to the best ofour knowledge, but if you spot an error, please emailinfo@ember-climate.orgCreativeCommonsThis report is published under a Creative Commons ShareAlikeAttribution Licence (CC BY-SA 4.0). You are actively encouragedto share and adapt the report, but you must credit the authors andtitle, and you must share any material you create under the samelicence.Document design & layout by Designers For Climate
ContentsKey findings1China’s electricity transition in the spotlight: 2015-20202What happened in 2020?4China’s transition in comparison with G20 countries5China’s wind and solar generation just above the world average in 20205China only G20 country to see a noticeable increase in coal generation in 20206Coal continues to occupy a central place in China’s generation-mix7China matches the world, as wind and solar eat into coal’s market share8China’s per capita electricity demand now higher than Italy and the United Kingdom9Concluding remarks10
CHINAChina was the only G20 country to see large increasein coal generation in 2020Increased electricity demand outpaced new clean electricity, leading to coal rise“The transition towards a low-carbon electricity system is a mainstay of China’s bid tobecome carbon neutral by the mid-century. Making the country’s growth of electricitydemand more sustainable is critical for facilitating this transition. For this, China needsto drive electricity consumption to be more efficient, to further promote ‘high-quality’economic growth, and to deepen electricity pricing reform, aimed at making electricityprices more cost-reflective.”Muyi YangSenior Electricity Policy Analyst, Ember“The finding that newly-added renewable generation failed to meet the additional powerdemand highlights an additional challenge in countries like China that are experiencinghigh electricity demand growth. More aggressive renewable development plans andenergy efficiency policy are required. Rather than building new coal capacity, existingcoal capacity should also be better utilised to facilitate large-scale renewable uptakebefore its phase-out in the coming years. For example, with proper renovations, someof the existing coal-fired power plants can provide fast-responsive capacity to thepower system. This is critical for maintaining system reliability while enabling largeoutputs from variable renewable sources.”Xunpeng ShiPresident of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies
KeyKeyfindingsFindings12China’s coal generation rose by1.7% in 2020, while it fell orremained flat in all other G20countriesGlobally, coal generation had its biggest fall onrecord, leaving China with an increasing share ofglobal coal generation: up from 44% in 2015 to53% in 2020.3This is greater than India’s total electricitygenerated in 2020. The country’s electricitydemand per capita is now higher than theUnited Kingdom and Italy.4China’s strong growth ofelectricity demand hasnecessitated the expansion ofboth renewable and nonrenewable generationThe expansion of renewable generation (821TWh) in China, though impressive, could notmeet its significant electricity demand growth. Inorder to maintain the sufficiency of electricitysupply, coal also had to rise, supplying 39% ofChina’s electricity demand growth (734 TWh outof 1,884 TWh).Between 2015 and 2020,electricity demand grew by over1,880 TWh in ChinaWind and solar now supplyalmost a tenth of China’selectricity, in line with theworld averageCompared with other G20 countries, China hasmade average progress on transitioning to alow-carbon electricity future since 2015, withwind and solar gaining a 6% market share fromcoal. More significant progress has been madein other G20 countries, especially in Germanyand the United Kingdom, which achieved over10% market share gains for wind and solar. Inaddition, because of the rapid growth inelectricity demand, although coal’s share fellrelatively in China, absolute coal generationcontinued to increase.Progress to 100% clean electricityPercentage of all renewables & nuclear in total generationCHINAWORLD27%34%in 2015in 202034%in 201539%in 20200%100%Progress on phasing out coalPercentage of coal in total generationCHINA68%in 201561%in 2020WORLD100%EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA38%in 201534%in 20200%1
5-2020Wind and solar share more-than doubles, to be in line with global averageWind & solar inelectricity mixPercentage of totalgenerationWindSolar10%World average9%4%World average5%20152020Wind and solar took market sharefrom coalElectricity demand rises, so coal risesby 19% in absolute termsElectricity mixElectricity generationPercentage of total generation3%20%4%5%19%Terawatt hoursNuclear100%Hydro Bioenergy Other RenewablesNuclear 114%OtherRenewablesTotalElectricityProduction 33%Hydro Bioenergy Other 27%Wind Solar 223%10%Wind SolarCoal 19%68%61%CoalTotalFossilFuels66%20152020Gas Oil 48%Total 195 TWh Electricity 318 TWh ProductionChange since 2015 1,884 TWh 503 TWh5%5%20152020 734 TWhGas OilEMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA 135 TWh201520202TotalElectricitProducti 1,884
Renewable generation hasexperienced an exceptional growthin China over the period 2015-2020,with wind and solar being the maindriver. China’s renewable generation hasincreased by 821 TWh; from 1,392 TWh in2015 to 2,213 TWh in 2020. Of this, morethan 60% ( 503 TWh) is from wind andsolar, and this increase in wind and solargeneration is comparable to South Korea’stotal electricity generated in 2020. Thesame period also saw a large growth ofhydro and bioenergy generation: 243 TWhfor hydro and 76 TWh for bioenergy.Besides renewables, China’s electricitygeneration from non-renewablesources has also grown significantly,with coal generation alone accountingfor almost 70% of the growth. Thisgrowth brought China’s share of the globalcoal generation to 53%, rising from 44% in2015.China’s expansion of both renewableand non-renewable generation wasprimarily driven by its fast-growingelectricity demand. China’s electricitydemand has grown by an average of 7% peryear since 2015, and even with Covid-19,electricity demand still rose 4% last year,reaching 7,612 TWh. This is up from 5,728TWh in 2015, suggesting a more than 1,880TWh increase, greater than India’s totalelectricity demand in 2020. The growth ofrenewable generation (821 TWh), thoughimpressive, has not been able to meetthis fast-growing demand for electricity.More electricity has also been producedfrom non-renewable sources (includingcoal) to maintain the overall sufficiency ofelectricity supply.Power generation in China becamerelatively, but not absolutely, cleaner.China’s share of wind and solar generationincreased from 4% in 2015 to 10% in 2020.The same time period has also witnesseda 7% reduction in the share of coalgeneration, suggesting that renewablesare replacing coal’s share in the electricitygeneration-mix. However, in absolute terms,all generation has been expanding since2015, although wind and solar generationhas expanded at a rate (45% per year) farexceeding that for coal (4% per year).EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA3
What happened in 2020?In China, renewable generation increased by 169 TWh last year: 98 TWh ( 16%) for windand solar, and 71 TWh ( 5%) for other renewables. This growth, however, did not causeany fall in non-renewable generation. Quite the contrary, non-renewable generation forcoal, gas and nuclear also increased by 77 TWh ( 2%), 33 TWh ( 9%), and 18 TWh ( 5%),respectively. This expansion of both renewable and non-renewable generation can beattributed to the country’s fast-growing demand for electricity, which rose almost 300 TWh( 4%) last year, greater than the total electricity generation of many countries, includingAustralia (251 TWh), South Africa (223 TWh), and Turkey (292 TWh). The outbreak ofCovid-19 appears to have only slowed the growth of electricity demand rather thanreducing it, probably due to a quick economic recovery from the pandemic.EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA4
China’s transition in comparison with G20 countriesChina’s wind and solar generation just above the world average in 2020In China, wind and solar generation accounted for 9.5% of total electricity generatedin 2020. This is just above the world average (9.4%) and much less than leading G20countries, most notably Germany (33%) and the United Kingdom (29%). Nonetheless,in absolute terms, China is leading in wind and solar generation among G20 countries,producing 728 TWh of wind and solar electricity in 2020, accounting for almost 30%of global wind and solar electricity generated in the year. Furthermore, China has alsoexperienced a more than three-fold (224%) increase in wind and solar generation since2015; this compares to 56% in Germany, 81% in the United Kingdom, and 104% in theUnited States.EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA5
China only G20 country to see a noticeable increase in coal generation in 2020China is one of the five outliers among G20 countries where coal generation has continuedto expand since 2015. Even with Covid-19, coal generation still increased by 2% in Chinalast year, while it fell in most other G20 countries.EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA6
Coal continues to occupy a central place in China’s generation-mixChina’s generation-mix is still dominated by coal, which accounts for over 60% of theelectricity generated in 2020. Other G20 countries with a similar dependence on coalgeneration in 2020 include South Africa (86%), India (71%), Indonesia (60%) and Australia(54%).EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA7
China matches the world, as wind and solar eat into coal’s market shareThe depth of coal-to-clean electricity transition is modest in China when comparedwith that for other G20 countries. In China, wind and solar have captured a 6% marketshare from coal since 2015. This transition from coal to wind and solar is modest whencompared with other G20 countries, especially Germany and the United Kingdom, wheremuch faster transition (more than 10% market share gains for wind and solar) has beenachieved.EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA8
China’s per capita electricity demand now higher than Italy and the UnitedKingdomChina’s per capita electricity demand has increased by more than 70% over the past tenyears or so; this is one of the quickest among the G20 countries. In 2020, its per capitaelectricity demand is higher than that for Italy and the United Kingdom, where per capitaelectricity demand fell considerably (12% for Italy and 25% for the United Kingdom) overthe past ten years or so. However, China’s per capita electricity demand is still muchless than many other high-income countries. This suggests that China’s rapid electricitydemand growth may continue in the coming years, which may in turn make the country’slow-carbon electricity transition even more difficult to attain.EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA9
Concluding remarksGlobal CO2 emissions from the combustionof coal need to fall by around 80% in justthe next 10 years to put the world ontrack for 1.5 degrees. In such a context,China — the world’s largest coal generator,responsible for over half of the coal-firedelectricity generated in 2020 — must ensureits coal generation collapses in the 2020s.However, emerging evidence, as discussedabove, suggests that China’s fast-growingelectricity demand has necessitated theexpansion of all generation, includingcoal. Accordingly, making the growth ofelectricity demand more sustainable iscritical for China’s transition towards a lowcarbon electricity future. Some possibleoptions for achieving this are as follows.» Prioritising efficiency improvementacross various economic sectors.This can be achieved by, for example,introducing more stringent MinimumEnergy Performance Standards forelectric appliances and equipment andextending the scope of existing energyefficiency regulation to include moresectors.» Further promoting economicrestructuring with particular emphasison less energy-intensive services andhigh-tech sectors. This can contributeto more sustainable electricity demandgrowth in China. It is also aligned withthe country’s current policy priority, i.e.,promoting economic growth through,for example, innovation, industrialrestructuring and phasing out lessefficient production capacity. The pursuitof this option requires the country toturn its back on the old playbook ofstimulating economic growth throughinfrastructure investment, which somehave argued has led to more emissionslast year.EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REVIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - CHINA» Electricity pricing reform, aimedat creating cost-reflective pricing andeliminating cross-subsidisation. Thiscould provide better incentives forelectricity consumers to save energy.» International collaboration canhelp share best practices for electricityefficiency improvement with China.This can be facilitated through variousregional and international mechanisms,such as G20 Energy Efficiency LeadingProgramme (EELP), China-EU EnergyDialogue, and APEC Expert Group onEnergy Efficiency & Conservation.Making the growth of electricity demandmore sustainable is important; however,promoting a timely and orderly phase-outof coal and replacement with renewablesis equally important. For this, Chinesepolicymakers may consider introducing amoratorium on new coal-fired power plants.This would not only curb the expansionof coal generation, but would also avoidthe issue of stranded assets, as muchof the existing coal capacity is alreadyunderutilised in China with low annualaverage operating hours. In addition, forpromoting the uptake of renewables,policymakers may consider providing‘right’ price signals for investors. They mayalso consider strengthening the electricgrid and enhancing the flexibility of theelectricity system (through, for example,building more storage capacity). Thesecould provide a more effective solutionfor redressing the issue of wind and solarcurtailments, further incentivising theexpansion of wind and solar capacity.10
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EMBER GBA EECRICI REIEW 2021 G20 PRIE CIA 2 China’s electricity transition in the spotlight: 2015-2020 Page Width - 27.4 cm 1 line banner - 1.6cm 17 5 year section Wind and solar share more-than doubles, to be in line with global average China's electricity transition in the spotli
EMBER GLOBAL ELECTRICITY REIEW 2021 - G20 PROFILE - SAUDI ARABIA 5 Most G20 countries have significantly increased their share of wind and solar over the last decade. Three countries - Russia, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia - have thus far remained unphased by the global trend. Even among these countries, Saudi Arabia is the only G20
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