ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION ON NEW .
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSBOUNDARYPOLLUTION ON NEW YORK’S AIR QUALITYFINAL REPORT 03-02JANUARY 2003NEW YORK STATEENERGY RESEARCH ANDDEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is a public benefitcorporation created in 1975 by the New York State Legislature. NYSERDA’s responsibilities include: Conducting a multifaceted energy and environmental research and development program to meetNew York State’s diverse economic needs. Administering the New York Energy martSM program, a Statewide public benefit R&D, energyefficiency, and environmental protection program. Making energy more affordable for residential and low-income households. Helping industries, schools, hospitals, municipalities, not-for-profits, and the residential sector,including low-income residents, implement energy-efficiency measures. Providing objective, credible, and useful energy analysis and planning to guide decisions made bymajor energy stakeholders in the private and public sectors. Managing the Western New York Nuclear Service Center at West Valley, including: (1) overseeing theState’s interests and share of costs at the West Valley Demonstration Project, a federal/State radioactive waste clean-up effort, and (2) managing wastes and maintaining facilities at the shut-down StateLicensed Disposal Area. Coordinating the State’s activities on energy emergencies and nuclear regulatory matters, andmonitoring low-level radioactive waste generation and management in the State. Financing energy-related projects, reducing costs for ratepayers.NYSERDA administers the New York Energy martSM program, which is designed to support certainpublic benefit programs during the transition to a more competitive electricity market. More than 2,700projects in more than 30 programs are funded by a charge on the electricity transmitted and distributed bythe State’s investor-owned utilities. The New York Energy martSM program provides energy efficiencyservices, including those directed at the low-income sector, research and development, and environmentalprotection activities.NYSERDA derives its basic research revenues from an assessment on the intrastate sales of New YorkState’s investor-owned electric and gas utilities, and voluntary annual contributions by the New YorkPower Authority and the Long Island Power Authority. Additional research dollars come from limitedcorporate funds. Some 400 NYSERDA research projects help the State’s businesses and municipalitieswith their energy and environmental problems. Since 1990, NYSERDA has successfully developed andbrought into use more than 141 innovative, energy-efficient, and environmentally beneficial products,processes, and services. These contributions to the State’s economic growth and environmental protectionare made at a cost of about .70 per New York resident per year.Federally funded, the Energy Efficiency Services program is working with more than 540 businesses,schools, and municipalities to identify existing technologies and equipment to reduce their energy costs.For more information, contact the Communications unit, NYSERDA, 17 Columbia Circle, Albany,New York 12203-6399; toll-free 1-866-NYSERDA, locally (518) 862-1090, ext. 3250; or on the webat www.nyserda.orgSTATE OF NEW YORKGeorge E. PatakiGovernorENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITYVincent A. DeIorio, Esq., Chairman
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTIONON NEW YORK’S AIR QUALITYFINAL REPORTPrepared for theNEW YORK STATEENERGY RESEARCH ANDDEVELOPMENT AUTHORITYAlbany, NYwww.nyserda.orgMark R. WatsonProject ManagerPrepared by theNEW YORK STATEDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATIONS. Trivikrama RaoPrincipal InvestigatorNYSERDAReport 03-02NYSERDA 6085January 2003
NOTICEThis report was prepared by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservationin the course of performing work contracted for and sponsored by the New York StateEnergy Research and Development Authority (hereafter “NYSERDA”). The opinionsexpressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of NYSERDA or the State of NewYork, and reference to any specific product, service, process, or method does not constitutean implied or expressed recommendation or endorsement of it. Further, NYSERDA, theState of New York, and the contractor make no warranties or representations, expressed orimplied, as to the fitness for particular purpose or merchantability of any product, apparatus,or service, or the usefulness, completeness, or accuracy of any processes, methods, or otherinformation contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in this report. NYSERDA, theState of New York, and the contractor make no representation that the use of any product,apparatus, process, method, or other information will not infringe privately owned rights andwill assume no liability for any loss, injury, or damage resulting from, or occurring inconnection with, the use of information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in thisreport.
PREFACEThe New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is pleasedto publish, “Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Quality.”The report was prepared by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.The Principal Investigator was Dr. S.T. Rao, during his tenure at the New York StateDepartment of Environmental Conservation. Dr. Rao is now the Director of the AtmosphericModeling Division of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and has continued hisresearch in air quality modeling and policy analysis.As part of this project, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was developed between theNew York State Department of Environmental Conservation and the Ontario Ministry of theEnvironment to facilitate the exchange of scientific information between the State of NewYork and the Canadian Province of Ontario, and to develop approaches to deal with theproblems relating to transboundary pollution.This project was funded as part of the New York Energy SmartSM Environmental Monitoring,Evaluation, and Protection Program and represents one of several air quality modelingstudies underway in New York.Key Words: Transboundary pollution, ozone trends, air quality modeling, air quality dataanalysis, environmental policy-makingAssessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe gratefully acknowledge New York State Department of Environmental Conservationformer Commissioner John P. Cahill for initiating this study and Deputy Commissioner CarlJohnson for his assistance in implementing this project. We also thank P.K. Misra andDeputy Ministers Jim MacLean, and Doug Barnes at the Ontario Ministry of theEnvironment, Toronto, Canada for their support to this investigation. The followingpersonnel contributed to this study: Jhumoor Biswas, Elvira Brankov, Kevin L. Civerolo,Winston Hao, Robert F. Henry, Christian Hogrefe, Jia-Yeong Ku, Huiting Mao, Gopal Sistla,Eric E. Zalewsky, Kesu Zhang, and Igor G. Zurbenko.NYSERDA appreciates the input of project reviewers, especially Dr. Praveen Amar,Director, Science and Policy, NESCAUM, and Dr. Daniel Jacob, Professor of AtmosphericChemistry & Environmental Engineering, Division of Engineering and Applied Science,Harvard University.Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityiii
Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityiv
TABLE OF CONTENTSSectionPageEXECUTIVE SUMMARY.S-11INTRODUCTION.1-1List of Acronyms.1-52OBJECTIVE 1: Data Analyses.2-1Data.2-1Analysis Methods.2-2Results.2-6Long-term Averages.2-6Hydrocarbons.2-8Long-term Trends .2-14Ozone Transport to the CN Tower site.2-19Ozone Transport to the World Trade Center Site.2-223OBJECTIVE 2: Model Evaluation.3-14OBJECTIVE 3: Efficacy and Methods (Modeling Results).4-1Spatial Influence of Emissions.4-1Using Modeling Results in the Regulatory Setting.4-3REFERENCES.R-1APPENDIX A : Publications.A-1Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityv
FIGURESFigurePage1Locations of monitoring sites.2-42Geometric mean NO2.2-63Geometric mean ozone.2-63aGeometric mean ozone , June-August.2-74Geometric mean ozone versus geometric mean NOx.2-75Long-term components of NO2 and O3 for upwind, urban and downwindsites of Toronto.2-96Long-term components of NO2 and O3 for upwind, urban and downwindsites of New York. 2-107Long-term components of NO2 and O3 for CN Tower and WorldTrade Center.2-118Long-term components of TNMOC for upwind, urban and downwindsites of Toronto.2-129Long-term components of TNMOC for upwind, urban and downwindsites of New York.2-1310Trends in Long-term NO2.2-1511Trends in Long-term ozone.2-1512Linear trends in raw ozone.2-1813Average back-trajectories for 8 trajectory clusters at CN Tower, Toronto.2-1914Ozone clusters at the CN Tower.2-2015Average back-trajectories for 8 trajectory clusters at World Trade Center,New York.2-2216UAM-V 36-km modeling domain.4-117Percentage decreases in daily maximum 8-hour O3, Ontario control case.4-218Percentage decreases in daily maximum 8-hour O3, New York control case.4-2Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityvi
TABLESTablePage1Locations of monitoring sites and trends in NO2 and ozone in Ontario .2-32Trends in NO2 and ozone for the Toronto and NYC metropolitan areas.2-153Trends in Total NonMethane Organic Carbon.2-164Results of Multiple Comparison Procedure (MCP) at the CN Tower.2-215Results of Multiple Comparison Procedure (MCP) at the World Trade Center.2-23Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityvii
Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Qualityviii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYOzone pollution continues to be a major problem downwind of many metropolitan areasthroughout the United States. Despite three decades of efforts to control thisphotochemically-produced pollutant, and despite some promising trends in ozone levels,many areas are still in nonattainment, especially from the perspective of the 8-hour ozonestandard. While the inherent nonlinearities of ozone photochemistry make it one of the mostdifficult air pollutants to understand, the long-range transport of ozone and its precursorsfurther complicate the picture. The goals of this project were to better understand thetransport of ozone in the region covering the Canadian Province of Ontario and New YorkState, and how transboundary pollution would be impacted by different emission controlstrategies.Project BackgroundMany atmospheric pollutants are transported over long distances, affecting air quality on theregional scale. For example, despite substantial reductions in the emissions of VolatileOrganic Compounds (VOCs) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) over New York State, long-rangetransport of ozone and its precursors from outside of the state continue to contributesubstantially to air quality problems within the State. The transboundary pollution problemmay be examined in two ways: using observations and models. Using observations, trendsand spatial scales may be examined, which can be combined with atmospheric flowclimatology to quantitatively assess regional effects. Trajectories define a potential region ofinfluence; observations of pollutant concentrations can help delineate the trends and possibleeffects of changes in emission control policies. To estimate quantitatively the effects ofatmospheric flow patterns and emissions, one needs meteorological and photochemicalmodeling as well. Air quality models can help us understand the ozone formation, transportand mixing processes.The objectives of this project were as follows:Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air QualityS-1
1. Assemble and analyze pertinent meteorological and air quality databases to determinetrends in meteorologically-adjusted ozone and its precursors over the region covering theCanadian Province of Ontario and New York State, and examine the impact of implementedemission controls in reducing the effects of transboundary pollution on New York.2. Apply state-of-the-art, regional-scale air quality modeling systems, namely, theMODELS3/CMAQ system - a 3rd generation regional model developed by EPA, and theUAM-V that was used by NYSDEC and EPA in the OTAG (Ozone Transport AssessmentGroup) process. An updated emission inventory was used to more accurately reflect theemissions from Ontario and the eastern United States. The ability of these modeling systemsto simulate the observed ozone air quality for the base year of 1995 was evaluated on aseasonal basis.3. Assess the efficacy of selected NOx and VOC emission reductions, as predicted by thetwo air-quality models in reducing the effects of transboundary pollution, and developmethods for using the ozone modeling results in a regulatory setting with an increased degreeof confidence. It should be noted that EPA considers the two models (CMAQ and UAM-V)as acceptable tools to address the new 8-hour ozone standard.ResultsWhile simple questions can be framed about the processes affecting ozone air quality, not allsuch questions have simple answers.1. What can we learn from an examination of the pertinent meteorological and air qualitydatabases? Ozone precursors have been generally decreasing throughout Ontario and the NewYork metropolitan area, while ozone itself is decreasing in the New Yorkmetropolitan area and increasing throughout Ontario. A back-trajectory clusteringtechnique illustrates that higher than average ozone concentrations in the Northeastare associated with winds from the Ohio River Valley and the industrial Midwest.Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air QualityS-2
2. What is the uncertainty associated with the model-predicted ozone concentrations fromthe current state-of-the-art photochemical modeling systems? Modeled ozone concentrations from the current generation, regional-scalephotochemical modeling systems have large uncertainties, stemming frommeteorological, emissions, and other model input data. For example, differentmeteorological drivers applied to one photochemical model can produce 20%uncertainty in the predicted peak O3 concentrations. Also, different photochemicalmodeling systems driven with the same emissions can produce differences on theorder of 20 to 30% in the predicted peak O3 concentrations. Analysis ofmeteorological and photochemical model outputs reveals that models are unable tosimulate the intra-day (timescale of 10 hours) variability properly, yielding 10% asthe lowest bound for the modeling uncertainty even when the model and its input areperfect.3. How should the modeling results be used in the regulatory setting? In light of the inherent uncertainties associated with episodic-type modeling with thegrid-based photochemical models, model simulation periods need to cover longertime periods than just 2-3 episodic days. Further, it is important to consideraveraging the model-predicted ozone concentrations over all simulation days, ratherthan predictions of peak ozone levels on individual days, for greater confidence in theuse of models for regulatory purposes. In addition, model predictions need to be usedin the probabilistic form, rather than in the deterministic form, in evaluating whethera selected emission control strategy could lead to compliance with the relevant airquality standards.Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air QualityS-3
Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air QualityS-4
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTIONON NEW YORK’S AIR QUALITYSection 1INTRODUCTIONMany atmospheric pollutants are transported over long distances, affecting air quality on theregional scale. For example, despite substantial reductions in the emissions of VolatileOrganic Compounds (VOCs) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) over New York State, long-rangetransport of ozone and its precursors from outside of the state continue to contributesubstantially to air quality problems within the state. We can examine the transboundarypollution problem in two ways: using observations and using models. Using observations,we can examine trends and spatial scales, which can be combined with atmospheric flowclimatology to quantitatively assess regional effects. Trajectories define a potential region ofinfluence; measurements can show trends and the possible effects of changes in emissioncontrol policies. To estimate quantitatively the effects of atmospheric flow patterns andemissions, one needs meteorological and photochemical modeling as well. Air qualitymodels can help us understand the ozone formation, transport and mixing processes.The goals of this project are to better understand the transport of ozone in the region coveringthe Canadian Province of Ontario and New York State, and how transboundary pollutionwould be impacted by different emission control strategies. The project objectives were asfollows:Assessing the Effects of Transboun
to publish, “Assessing the Effects of Transboundary Pollution on New York’s Air Quality.” The report was prepared by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The Principal Investigator was Dr. S.T. Rao, during his tenure at the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Dr.
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