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covercovertitle :authorpublisherisbn10 asinprint isbn13ebook isbn13languagesubject::::::publication datelccddcsubject::::next page Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional IrwinTrader's Edge SeriesBrown, Constance M.McGraw-Hill lation, Investment analysis, Stocks--Charts,diagrams, etc.1999HG6041.B74 1999eb332.64/5Speculation, Investment analysis, Stocks--Charts,diagrams, etc.covernext page file:///C e%20trading%20professional/files/cover.html [10/14/2009 7:45:45 AM]
page i previous pagepage inext page Page iTechnical Analysis for the Trading Professional previous pagepage inext page file:///C %20trading%20professional/files/page i.html [10/14/2009 7:45:46 AM]
page ii previous pagepage iinext page Page iiOther Books in the Irwin Trader's Edge SeriesThe Options Edge by William Gallacher (0-07-038296-4)The Art of the Trade by R. E. McMaster (0-07-045542-2) previous pagepage iinext page file:///C 20trading%20professional/files/page ii.html [10/14/2009 7:45:47 AM]
page iii previous pagepage iiinext page Page iiiTechnical Analysis for the Trading ProfessionalConstance Brown previous pagepage iiinext page file:///C 0trading%20professional/files/page iii.html [10/14/2009 7:45:47 AM]
page iv previous pagepage ivnext page Page ivCopyright 1999 by Constance M. Brown. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Exceptas permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributedin any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of thepublisher.e-ISBN 0071380108The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN 0-07-012062-5.All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence ofa trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with nointention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed withinitial caps.McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use incorporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales, atgeorge hoare@mcgraw-hill.com or (212) 904-4069.TERMS OF USEThis is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. ("McGraw-Hill") and its licensors reserve all rightsin and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 andthe right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce,modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or anypart of it without McGraw-Hill's prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use;any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply withthese terms.THE WORK IS PROVIDED "AS IS". McGRAW-HILL AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES ORWARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BEOBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSEDTHROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTHERWISE, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANYWARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OFMERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill and its licensors do notwarrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will beuninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for anyinaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hillhas no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work. Under no circumstances shallMcGraw-Hill and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similardamages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibilityof such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or causearises in contract, tort or otherwise.DOI: 10.1036/0071380108 previous pagepage ivnext page file:///C 20trading%20professional/files/page iv.html [10/14/2009 7:45:48 AM]
page v previous pagepage vnext page Page vCONTENTSForewordixPart OneDispelling Some Common Beliefs about Indicators1Chapter 1Oscillators Do Not Travel between 0 and 1003Oscillators, contrary to popular belief, can be used to definemarket trend. A discussion focusing on RSI and Stochasticsreveals how specific indicator ranges can confirm largertrends and identify an upcoming trend reversalChapter 2Dominant Trading Cycles Are Not TimeSymmetrical19The concept of multiple market cycles andthe determination of cycle dominance for aspecific trading time horizon are fullydiscussed. An explanation is offered whysymmetrical and Fibonacci cycles fail.Methods for handling the weaknessesinherent in both cycle methods are discussed.Chapter 3Choosing and Adjusting Period Setup for OscillatorsThe correct method for determining the time period for anoscillator is discussed. Recommendations are given as towhen to change initial oscillator setups and the methods formaking these adjustments. This chapter also reveals howinstitutional traders can benefit from inexperienced technicaltraders. previous page31 Chapter 4Dominant Trend Lines Are Not Always fromExtreme Price Highs or Lows47Trend lines of greatest significance may notoriginate from major price highs and lows.Visual exercises help demonstrate geometricproportions that extend beyond traditionalcharting techniques. The market timing ofhigh-risk trend changes can be identified byprojecting trend lines forward from specificchart signals.page vnext page file:///C 0trading%20professional/files/page v.html [10/14/2009 7:45:49 AM]
page vi previous pagepage vinext page Page viChapter 5Signals from Moving Averages Are Frequently Absent in Real-TimeCharts65 Part Two83Calculating Market Price ObjectivesTime-sequenced charts show that trading signals from movingaverages and indicators that incorporate averages may not be presentin real-time market analysis. Knowing how these indicators changetheir screen positions when the current bar is displaced with new datawill allow traders to adjust to real-time conditions and miss fewersignals.Chapter 6Adjusting Traditional Fibonacci Projections for Higher-ProbabilityTargets85Weaknesses exist in the industry's standard use of Fibonaccirelationships. The industry in general determines 0.382, 0.500, and0.618 retracement levels from distinct price highs and lows and alsoprojects: 618, equality, and 1.618 market swings from the same pivotlevels. This chapter reveals methods for more accurate priceprojection to accommodate the normal expansion and contractioncycles present in all markets. In addition, it demonstrates why pricespikes or key reversals should not be used to determine Fibonacciretracement targets.Chapter 7Price Projections by Reverse-Engineering Indicators107The concept of reverse-engineering an indicator to forecast priceobjectives is discussed using Microsoft's Excel software. This chapterincludes a detailed, step-by-step picture illustration of how to exportdata from Omega Research's TradeStation to Microsoft's Excelsoftware for advanced custom analysis.Chapter 8121Price Objectives Derived from Positive and Negative Reversals in RSIRSI can be used to calculate price objectives from specific indicatorpatterns called Positive and Negative Reversals. Signal probabilityand price objectives can be dramatically improved by measuring theamplitude of the oscillator. The price projection method and filteringtechnique are fully explained and illustrated previous pagepage vinext page file:///C 20trading%20professional/files/page vi.html [10/14/2009 7:45:50 AM]
page vii previous pagepage viinext page Page viiChapter 9Calculating Price and Time Objectives from a Gann Wheel143A detailed foundation for Gann analysis and how to use a Gann Wheel to calculate both time and priceobjectives are illustrated. This discussion reveals why most students of W. D. Gann abandon this methodologyin frustration after much effort and expense.161Chapter 10Using Oscillators with the Elliott Wave PrincipleA market move that requires several days to develop is used to walk readers through a real-time, step-by-stepprogression to show how to apply the Elliott Wave Principle. As the market unfolds through a time-sequencedevent, all the rules, guidelines, and patterns are discussed to show how they are used to predict future marketaction.The prior chapters are also applied to clarify how the different techniques are combined. Wave counts inhindsight versus developing wave scenarios unfolding in real-time to predict future market movement requiredifferent skills. The differences are discussed, and common misunderstandings in the industry are identified.The chapter concludes with an in-depth look at an analytic method used to develop long-horizon waveinterpretations for the S&P 500. The method can be used for any Global Equity Index.The potential long-term market forecasts for T-Bonds and the DJIA are offered.Part ThreeNew Methods for Improving Indicator Timing and Filtering Premature Signals237Chapter 11Volatility Bands On Oscillators239A volatility band formula is discussed that has a different character than Bollinger Bands. The chapter alsodiscusses the importance of establishing independent variables for upper and lower bands because markets donot decline in the same manner as they advance.Chapter 12The Composite Index251The Composite Index is a custom formula that forms bullish or bearish divergence with RSI to identify RSIsignal failures before they occur. The Composite Index becomes an inseparable companion to RSI as has beendemonstrated throughout the book. In this chapter it is combined with Japanese Candlesticks to show howEastern charting techniques might apply this formula. Using Volume as a signal confirmation is examined. previous pagepage viinext page file:///C 0trading%20professional/files/page vii.html [10/14/2009 7:45:51 AM]
page viii previous pagepage viiinext page Page viiiChapter 13Evaluating the Comparative Strengths and Weaknesses of Common Indicators263This chapter discusses the strengths and weaknesses of common indicators in order to isolate desiredcharacteristics for developing a custom formula. Personal biases contribute to the effectiveness of an indicator'ssignal. Depth perception is discussed to clarify how we evaluate charts graphically in a two-dimensionalenvironment. Depth perception needs to be understood as it will affect our judgment of chart signals and willdictate how indicators should be plotted to accommodate personal strengths and weaknesses.Chapter 14The Derivative Oscillator289An original formula to resolve trading problems associated with time-consuming complex market corrections orreentry problems when markets are in strong trends. The testing of a new indicator and considerations thatshould be made prior to using a new formula in real-time markets are described. This particular formuladisplays an unusual characteristic of forming equal and opposite peaks and troughs that minimize traditionalsignal lag.AppendixesAppendix A: Real-Time Application: JapaneseYen311Appendix B: Real-Time Application: Asian and European Equity Indices315Appendix C: Real-Time Application: S&P/BondMarket321Appendix D:Formulas329Appendix E: Aerodynamic Fund, Ltd. and Aerodynamic Fund L.P.335Index337 previous pagepage viiinext page file:///C trading%20professional/files/page viii.html [10/14/2009 7:45:52 AM]
page ix previous pagepage ixnext page Page ixFOREWORDWritten by a brilliant trader for only those seasoned traders who are willing to work at their analysis of the markets in adisciplined way, this book contains the most advanced methodology I've ever seen!Connie Brown's credentials come in the form of nine years on the front line as a research analyst and fund trader. She is,herself, a disciplined professional, who has grown to the point where she is a force to reckon with in the financialmarkets. At the same time, she publishes a daily bulletin on the Dow, the S&P, and Bonds. This is faxed to some of theworld's most sophisticated, large traders. Her predictions as to price objectives and trend of the market are unequaledanywhere in the industry.There are fourteen separate chapters in this book, each a separate subject. Six of these subjects have been written onbefore, and these chapters serve as improvements on old indicators. There are, also, fifteen major breakthroughs intechnical analysis! Seven of these breakthroughs are newnever-before-revealed material! Eight more dissect, change,and improve old concepts.In her discussion of Stochastics and of RSI as oscillators, she introduces the concept that oscillators do not necessarilyfluctuate between 0 and 100 and that all signals do not fall within the traditional default overbought and oversold bands.The oscillator may actually travel within a larger or a narrower range that can be pinpointed with precision. To correctwhat the writer perceives as a flaw in commercial software packages, she suggests the use of an upper resistance bandand a lower support band within this range to help identify signals that might otherwise have been missed. She alsointroduces the concept that this effective signaling band may travel up and down within the range, and that it mayexpand or contract. She suggests that the trader should adjust this effective signaling range to compensate for theidiosyncrasies of strongly trending bull and bear markets, and even suggests some better parameters! This alone wouldchange the way we look at oscillatorsand, consequently, our entry timing.Connie also utilizes RSI as a price predictor by applying Andrew Cardwell's Positive and Negative Reversal Signals andby using historical price levels at the extremes where signals have occurred in the past to forecast similar prices whensignals will occur in the future. To my knowledge, this use for oscillators has never before been published. It is a newand valuable concept!But this inventive young trader does not stop there. She goes on to discuss the application of moving averages overoscillators, third-generation indicators created by applying oscillators on oscillators, and filtering indicators withvariants of different lengths. She introduces the Derivative Oscillator, its correct use and caveats, and the CompositeIndex she created to accompany RSI.In a theme she returns to frequently, she kids the "Stochastics Default Club"both the uneducated public that accepts thedefault values in software and previous pagepage ixnext page file:///C 20trading%20professional/files/page ix.html [10/14/2009 7:45:53 AM]
page x previous pagepage xnext page Page xtries to use them to trade without a clue as to why and the educated but lazy trader who knows better but does it anyway.She remedies this deficit by giving a great deal of attention to procedures for determining and inputting the proper datato construct responsive, customized indicators. She makes a passionate case for keeping a flexible state of mind andadjusting indicators to changes in the markets.To the subject of cycles, Connie introduces the concept of ''growth and decay," which leads to asymmetrical cycles, andthe application of a weighted factor to them, versus Fibonacci cycles. She explains the use of charts with differing timecycles to perfect cycle timing.Approaching the subject of market price objectives, this writer naturally turns to the Elliott Wave, her starting point inthe industry. For some, the Elliott Wave is frustrating in the extreme because the wave count appears to change when alarger cycle begins. Understanding their frustration, Connie agrees that some people are "wave-deaf"; just as a tone-deafperson cannot hear the music, they cannot perceive the beauty of the composition because they are caught up incounting the beats and analyzing the notations. She stresses that it is necessary to understand the structure, but moreimportant to keep a sense of proportionality to the analysis.Then, she teaches the three simple rules that form the basis of Elliott Wave analysis, takes the reader through an "easyto take" explanation of flats and zigzags, and analyzes a number of charts real-time "to the T," showing as she goes howshe integrates oscillators, Fibonacci ratios, and Gann into her analysis. She is a proponent of a hypothesis I've longespoused: Stochastics can prove Elliott Waveand help clarify an indistinct wave count!Connie also discusses Fibonacci methodology in depth. The chapter on Fibonacci measurement truly upgrades this oldfriend. She rightly points out that markets may gap past a price objective and that the trader has to remove thedifferential of the gap in order to properly calculate the correct price objective of the affected retracement. In herdiscussion of the use of multiple Fibonacci swing objectives, Connie's projections are plotted from numerous pivotlevels. She has found that these levels tend to cluster into tight support and resistance levels, which are useful in and ofthemselves.I was particularly impressed with the discussion and the upgrades. This chapter has been badly needed. The discussionon spikes and internal Fibonacci guidance is to be especially appreciated by the reader. The explanation of the Fibonacciprice projection methodand specifically the use of multiple Fibonacci swing projectionsis worth the price of the wholebook!Before tackling the subject of trend lines as price predictors, the writer challenges us to solve a puzzle, the NineSquares. The task is to connect the squares with four lines, without removing the pencil from the page. To come up withthe correct answer, the reader is required to work outside the mindset established by the puzzle. So, too, the writer asksus to suspend our preconceptions that trend previous pagepage xnext page file:///C 0trading%20professional/files/page x.html [10/14/2009 7:45:53 AM]
page xi previous pagepage xinext page Page xilines must be established from absolute highs and lows. Because she believes spikes at tops and bottoms are caused byaberrations in the market, she prefers less conventional approaches, such as ignoring spikes or using intermediate highsor lows. She discusses the intersection of trend lines as a timing toola subject that has needed clarification for years!Then, she demonstrates a very unconventional use of trend lines to "reverse engineer" a triangle that can be bisected intotwo right triangles by a line extended into the future that will point to a final bottom. She goes on to introduce anentirely new approach to trend linesthe intersection of trend lines from divergent highs on an oscillator with the longterm trend line. The results are astounding! This is "eyeball training" from which a good chartist can profit!The Nine Squares connected by four
Calculating Price and Time Objectives from a Gann Wheel A detailed foundation for Gann analysis and how to use a Gann Wheel to calculate both time and price objectives are illustrated. This discussion reveals why most students of W. D. Gann abandon this methodology in
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