Minutes Of The Federal Open Market Committee April 29–30, 2014

Minutes of the Meeting of April 29–30, 2014Page 3Developments in Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve’s Balance SheetThe manager of the System Open Market Account(SOMA) reported on developments in domestic andforeign financial markets as well as the System openmarket operations during the period since theCommittee met on March 18–19, 2014. By unanimousvote, the Committee ratified the Open Market Desk’sdomestic transactions over the intermeeting period.There were no intervention operations in foreigncurrencies for the System’s account over theintermeeting period.By unanimous vote, the Committee agreed to renewthe reciprocal currency arrangements with the Bank ofCanada and the Bank of Mexico; these arrangementsare associated with the Federal Reserve’s participationin the North American Framework Agreement of1994. In addition, by unanimous vote, the Committeeagreed to renew the dollar and foreign currency liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, theBank of England, the Bank of Japan, the EuropeanCentral Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. The votesto renew the Federal Reserve’s participation in thesearrangements were taken at this meeting because provisions in the arrangements specify that the Federal Reserve provide six months’ prior notice of an intentionto terminate its participation.Staff Review of the Economic SituationThe information reviewed for the April 29–30 meetingindicated that growth in economic activity paused inthe first quarter as a whole, but that activity stepped uplate in the quarter; this pattern reflected, in part, thetemporary effects of the unusually cold and snowyweather earlier in the quarter and the unwinding ofthose effects later in the quarter. In March, payrollemployment increased further, although the unemployment rate held steady and was still elevated. Consumer price inflation continued to run below theCommittee’s longer-run objective, but measures oflonger-run inflation expectations remained stable.The unemployment rate stayed at 6.7 percent in March,but both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio increased slightly. Therate of long-duration unemployment declined somewhat, but the share of workers employed part time foreconomic reasons moved up; both of these measureswere still well above their pre-recession levels. Initialclaims for unemployment insurance remained low overthe intermeeting period. Although the rate of jobopenings moved up in February, the hiring rate was flatand continued to be subdued.Following a rebound in February that was partlyweather related, manufacturing production rose furtherin March and the rate of manufacturing capacity utilization increased. The production of motor vehicles andparts declined in March, but factory output outside ofthe motor vehicle sector expanded. Automakers’schedules indicated that the pace of motor vehicle assemblies in the coming months would be similar to thelevel in March. However, broad indicators of manufacturing production, such as the new orders indexes fromthe national and regional manufacturing surveys, wereat levels consistent with moderate increases in factoryoutput in the near term.Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) expanded slightly less rapidly in the first quarter than inthe fourth quarter. After moving roughly sideways, onnet, in January and February, the component of nominal retail sales used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to construct its monthly estimate of PCErose briskly in March, in part because the weather returned to more seasonal norms. Recent informationon several important factors that influence householdspending was positive. Real disposable income continued to increase in the first quarter, further gains inhouse prices likely bolstered household net worth, andconsumer sentiment in the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumersimproved, on balance, in March and April.The pace of activity in the housing sector remainedsoft, as real expenditures for residential investment decreased again in the first quarter. Starts of new singlefamily homes increased in March. However, permitsfor single-family homes—which are typically less sensitive to fluctuations in the weather and a better indicatorof the underlying pace of construction—remained below their fourth-quarter level and had not shown a sustained improvement since last spring, when mortgagerates began to rise. Sales of both new and existinghomes decreased in March of this year, but pendinghome sales rose.Real private expenditures on business equipment andintellectual property products declined in the first quarter. However, nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose in February and inMarch, and new orders were somewhat above the levelof shipments, pointing to modest gains in shipments inthe near term. Other forward-looking indicators, suchas surveys of business conditions and capital spending

Page 4Federal Open Market Committeeplans, were also consistent with increased outlays forbusiness equipment in the coming months. Realspending for nonresidential construction was about flatin the first quarter after declining in the fourth quarter,while real inventory investment moved lower. Businessinventories in most industries appeared to be broadlyaligned with sales in recent months.Real federal government purchases rose slightly in thefirst quarter, as the increase from the reversal of thegovernment shutdown in the fourth quarter was mostlyoffset by the ongoing downtrend in purchases. Realstate and local government purchases decreased somewhat in the first quarter, as state and local constructionexpenditures declined.The U.S. international trade deficit widened in Februaryas exports fell and imports rose. The export declineswere concentrated in aircraft and petroleum products,while exports of consumer goods rose. Rising importsof services and automotive products offset declines inimports of oil and capital goods. In the advance releaseof the national income and product accounts, the BEAestimated that net exports subtracted substantially fromreal gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the firstquarter.U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE priceindex, rose at a slow rate in the first quarter, thoughsomewhat faster than the pace posted in the fourthquarter, and were about 1 percent higher than a yearearlier. After falling in the fourth quarter, consumerenergy prices increased markedly in the first quarter asnatural gas prices moved higher on a sharp decline ininventories during the unusually cold winter months.The PCE price index for items excluding food and energy rose at the same rate in the first quarter as in theprevious one and was around 1¼ percent higher thanfour quarters earlier. Both near- and longer-term inflation expectations from the Michigan survey were unchanged in March and April. Over the 12 months ending in March, both the employment cost index forprivate-sector workers and average hourly earnings forall employees increased only a little more than consumer price inflation.Indicators of foreign economic activity suggested continued expansion in the first quarter but at a ratesomewhat below that in the fourth quarter. The deceleration was concentrated in emerging market economies (EMEs). Real GDP growth slowed markedly inChina, largely reflecting lower investment growth andexports. Weaker exports also restrained economic activity in other emerging Asian economies. In Mexico,indicators of activity suggested some improvementfrom a lackluster fourth quarter. By contrast, economicgrowth remained near its solid fourth-quarter pace inthe advanced foreign economies (AFEs). In the euroarea, the United Kingdom, and Canada, average industrial production in the first two months of the year wasup moderately from the fourth quarter; in Japan, industrial production rose robustly, and consumer demandwas boosted by anticipation of the April increase in theconsumption tax. Inflation developments were mixed.Inflation rebounded in Canada but remained very lowin the euro area. In China and India, inflation fell inthe first quarter, largely because of lower food prices.Monetary policy remained highly accommodative during the intermeeting period in the AFEs and also inmany EMEs, although monetary policy in Brazil wastightened to contain inflation pressures.Staff Review of the Financial SituationDespite some volatility in certain asset prices, financialconditions did not change appreciably, on net, over theintermeeting period. Asset prices moved in responseto economic data releases that were, on balance, a littlestronger than expected and to Federal Reserve communications. The anticipated path of the federal fundsrate moved up somewhat, as did intermediate-datedTreasury yields, while corporate bond spreads narrowed and the S&P 500 increased slightly. The foreignexchange value of the dollar was little changed.Federal Reserve communications garnered significantattention from market participants over the period butappeared to have only a modest net effect on their expectations for monetary policy. The communicationsfollowing the conclusion of the March FOMC meetingwere interpreted as somewhat less accommodative thanexpected. However, subsequent communications—including the release of the minutes of the MarchFOMC meeting—appeared to mostly reverse the earlier change in expectations.Yields on short- and medium-term nominal Treasurysecurities rose, on balance, over the intermeeting period. In contrast, yields at the long end of the curve declined, continuing a downward trend evident overmuch of this year. Market participants cited a numberof factors as contributing to the drop in long-termyields so far this year, including portfolio reallocationby large institutional investors, the trading strategiespursued by some investors, and safe-haven flows.Some market participants reportedly also revised downtheir estimate of the average real federal funds rate overthe longer term, reflecting in part changes in their as-

Minutes of the Meeting of April 29–30, 2014Page 5sessments of long-run economic conditions. Measuresof longer-horizon inflation compensation based onTreasury Inflation-Protected Securities were littlechanged.Conditions in short-term funding markets remainedfairly stable over the intermeeting period. Take-up inthe Federal Reserve’s fixed-rate ON RRP exercise continued to be sensitive to the spread between marketrates and the rate offered in the exercise, with highertake-up occurring on days when the market rate onrepurchase agreements was close to or below the ONRRP rate. As has been the case since the ON RRPexercise began, money market funds increased theirusage at quarter-end; take-up reached a record level ofabout 240 billion at the end of March. Part of theincrease in ON RRP usage at the end of March relativeto the end of December likely reflected higher counterparty allotment limits, which were raised from 3 billion to 7 billion during the first quarter. The allotmentlimit was subsequently increased to 10 billion percounterparty in early April. The seasonal paydown ofshort-term Treasury debt following the April tax datewas accompanied by a notable pickup in participationat ON RRP operations, but Treasury repo rates generally remained very close to the ON RRP rate of 5 basispoints.The S&P 500 increased a bit, on net, over the intermeeting period, but broader stock market indexesedged down. The prices of social media and biotechnology stocks, which had risen substantially faster thanthe broader market over the previous year, fell sharplyover the intermeeting period, leaving the gains on theseshares about in line with those on broader indexes overthe past 12 months. Some initial public offerings werereportedly put on hold as prices of small-capitalizationstocks declined. By contrast, stocks that generally havemore stable dividends, such as those of utility and telecommunications companies, advanced. First-quarterearnings reports for large banking organizations weremixed, and the stock prices of such firms generally underperformed broad equity indexes.Credit flows to nonfinancial corporations remainedrobust, on balance, notwithstanding subdued bond issuance in April that was attributed to typical constraintson issuance during the period when many firms arereporting their earnings. The growth in commercialand industrial loans on banks’ balance sheets remainedrobust, consistent with the increase in loan demand bylarge and middle-market firms reported in the AprilSenior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Len

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 29–30, 2014 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, April 29, 2014, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 30, 2014, at 9:00 a.m. PRESENT: Janet L. Yellen, Chair