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Kent Academic RepositoryFull text document (pdf)Citation for published versionDouglas, Karen (2021) COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Group Processes and Intergroup Relations,24 (2). pp. 270-275. ISSN 068Link to record in KARhttps://kar.kent.ac.uk/84470/Document VersionPublisher pdfCopyright & reuseContent in the Kent Academic Repository is made available for research purposes. Unless otherwise stated allcontent is protected by copyright and in the absence of an open licence (eg Creative Commons), permissionsfor further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher, author or other copyright holder.Versions of researchThe version in the Kent Academic Repository may differ from the final published version.Users are advised to check http://kar.kent.ac.uk for the status of the paper. Users should always cite thepublished version of record.EnquiriesFor any further enquiries regarding the licence status of this document, please contact:researchsupport@kent.ac.ukIf you believe this document infringes copyright then please contact the KAR admin team with the take-downinformation provided at http://kar.kent.ac.uk/contact.html
82068Group Processes & Intergroup RelationsDouglasGroup Processes &Intergroup RelationsArticleGPIRGroup Processes & Intergroup Relations2021, Vol. 24(2) 270 –275 The Author(s) 2020COVID-19 conspiracy theoriesArticle reuse /doi.org/10.1177/1368430220982068DOI: gpiKaren M. Douglas1AbstractConspiracy theories started to appear on social media immediately after the first news aboutCOVID-19. Is the virus a hoax? Is it a bioweapon designed in a Chinese laboratory? These conspiracytheories typically have an intergroup flavour, blaming one group for having some involvement ineither manufacturing the virus or controlling public opinion about it. In this article, I will discusswhy people are attracted to conspiracy theories in general, and why conspiracy theories seem to haveflourished during the pandemic. I will discuss what the consequences of these conspiracy theoriesare for individuals, groups, and societies. I will then discuss some potential strategies for addressingthe negative consequences of conspiracy theories. Finally, I will consider some open questions forresearch regarding COVID-19 conspiracy theories, in particular focusing on the potential impact ofthese conspiracy theories for group processes and intergroup relations.Keywordsconspiracy beliefs, conspiracy theories, COVID-19, disinformation, misinformationPaper received 9 October 2020; revised version accepted 26 November 2020.Conspiracy theories began to emerge immediatelyafter the first news of the COVID-19 outbreak(van Bavel et al., 2020), and many of these stemmedfrom existing tensions within and between groups.For example, from early on during the pandemic,some people believed that COVID-19 was deliberately manufactured by the Chinese to wage war onthe USA (or vice versa). As the pandemic progressed, others believed that COVID-19 was ahoax or was exaggerated by left-wingers as part ofa plot to derail Donald Trump’s reelection campaign. These conspiracy theories persist, andrecently a vocal minority of “antimaskers” inWestern countries have protested against what theyview as a direct attack from powerful authorities ontheir civil liberties. In this article, I will explain whypeople believe in conspiracy theories like these, andwhy conspiracy theories are likely to appeal topeople during the pandemic. I will also explore thepotential dangers of COVID-19 conspiracy theories for individuals, groups, and societies, andexplain what might be done about them.Why People Believe inConspiracy TheoriesConspiracy theories attempt to explain significantevents and circumstances as the malevolent actsof secret and powerful groups (Douglas et al.,1Universityof Kent, UKCorresponding author:Karen M. Douglas, School of Psychology, University ofKent, Keynes College, Canterbury, CT2 7NP, UK.Email: k.douglas@kent.ac.uk
Douglas2017; Douglas et al., 2019). The psychological literature on this topic has grown rapidly in the past15 years, and suggests that people are drawn toconspiracy theories when important psychological needs are not being met. The first set of needsare epistemic, including the desire to satisfy curiosity and avoid uncertainty. For example, researchhas linked conspiracy beliefs with the search forpatterns and meaning even when no such patterns exist (van Prooijen et al., 2018), and withlower levels of education (Douglas et al., 2016).The second set of needs are existential, includingthe desire to restore a threatened sense of security and control (see also Kruglanski et al., 2021,for further discussion of threats to self). Forinstance, people are more likely to believe conspiracy theories when they are anxious or worried(Grzesiak-Feldman, 2013), and when they feelthat they have no power (Abalakina-Paap et al.,1999). The third set of needs are social, includingthe desire to hold one’s self and one’s groups inpositive regard. For instance, people are morelikely to believe in conspiracy theories if theyneed to feel unique compared to others (Lantianet al., 2017), feel a need to belong (Graeupner &Coman, 2017), or feel that their group is underappreciated (Cichocka et al., 2016) or under threat(Jolley et al., 2018).During a pandemic, people’s psychologicalneeds are likely to be particularly frustrated.Uncertainties are high, and people are worried andfearful for their future and the future of their lovedones. They are seeking information to answerimportant questions about the outlook for thecoming months. Furthermore, the informationlandscape is complex, and people are frequentlyconfronted with contradictory information. Oneweek people are asked to “eat out to help out”local restaurants, and the next they are being askedto stay indoors. Also, people have endured (and inmany cases are still enduring) lengthy periods ofsocial isolation, restricting their access to socialsupport that can help with both physical and mental health (Jetten et al., 2017). They are also worriedthat the actions of powerful outgroups such asgovernments are making things worse. In general,too, research suggests that conspiracy theories271tend to prosper in times of crisis as people lookfor ways to cope with difficult and uncertain circumstances (van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017). Thetime is therefore ripe for conspiracy theories toflourish.Consequences of ConspiracyTheoriesConspiracy theories are consequential, and inmany studies have been linked to climate denial,vaccine refusal, political apathy, apathy in theworkplace, prejudice, crime, and violence (seeDouglas et al., 2019, for a review; see also Rutjenset al., 2021, for further discussion on science skepticism). Recent research suggests that conspiracytheories about COVID-19 are no exception, and,in particular, that they have negative consequencesfor people’s intentions to comply with government recommendations. For example, Romer andJamieson (2020) measured belief in COVID-19conspiracy theories in the US and found that thesebeliefs were negatively associated with perceivedthreat of the pandemic, taking preventive actions(e.g., wearing a mask), and intentions to vaccinateagainst COVID-19 if a vaccine became available.Barua et al. (2020) similarly found that belief inconspiracy theories negatively predicted preventive intentions in a sample of Bangladeshirespondents. Imhoff and Lamberty (2020) foundthat the relationship between COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and preventive intentions depended onthe nature of the conspiracy theory. Specifically,“hoax”-related conspiracy theories predictedrefusal to engage in preventive behaviours,whereas conspiracy theories about the virus beingmanufactured in a laboratory seemed to promotemore self-centred prepping behaviour. Finally,Biddlestone, Green, and Douglas (2020) demonstrated that people with an individualist (vs. collectivist) cultural orientation displayed lowerintentions to engage in COVID-19 preventivebehaviours, a relationship mediated by belief inCOVID-19 conspiracy theories.Research has identified other negative consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Forexample, Jolley and Paterson (2020) showed that
272belief in the conspiracy theory that 5G phonemasts spread COVID-19 predicted greater willingness to vandalise 5G masts and to commit violence more generally as a means to get thingsdone. Several preprints available on PsychArXiv.com have also described negative consequencesof COVID-19 conspiracy theories. These includesupport for alternative remedies such as hydroxychloroquine (Bertin et al., 2020), consuming garlic and colloidal silver (Teovanović et al., 2020),and self-serving behaviours such as stockpiling(Bai, 2020). Like political, climate change, andantivaccine conspiracy theories, COVID-19 conspiracy theories therefore also appear to do harm.At a time when communities need to focus onefforts to halt the spread of the virus and preventfurther deaths, conspiracy theories spreadingwithin and between communities appear to bedamaging those efforts.Addressing the Impact ofConspiracy TheoriesIn general, it is difficult to address the consequences of conspiracy theories because such theories are often multilayered, nebulous, and thereforeresistant to disconfirmation (e.g., Lewandowskyet al., 2012). Also, belief in conspiracy theories isoften driven by strongly held social and politicalidentities, and the ties of these group memberships are difficult to break (Uscinski et al., 2016).As people become more attached to a group thatholds conspiracy beliefs, it is likely that they will bepersuaded to act upon their beliefs and cause further harm, as has been the case with “antimaskers”protesting across the US, often joined by antivaccine activists and “QAnon” supporters whobelieve that the Democrats are at the centre of apaedophile ring and that Republican PresidentDonald Trump is leading the fight against them.Such social movements, driven strongly by conspiracy theories, have the potential to lead to actsof violence and terrorism (Douglas et al., 2019).However, appealing to larger group membershipsmay be an effective strategy for dealing withconspiracy theories. For example, Biddlestone,Green and Douglas (2020) showed that whilstGroup Processes & Intergroup Relations 24(2)individualists were more likely to believe COVID19 conspiracy theories, thus demonstrating reluctance to engage in preventive behaviours, this wasnot the case for collectivists. People with a collectivist cultural orientation were in fact more likely toshow intentions to engage in preventive behaviours. Promoting collectivism, or a “we are in thistogether” approach, may therefore be a way toboth reduce susceptibility to conspiracy theoriesand improve people’s COVID-19 response.Another challenge in dealing with COVID19 conspiracy theories is that people are likely toreject direct counterarguments from governments and authorities because these groups areperceived to be part of the conspiracy, and theiractions are considered as evidence of their conspiracy. As the “other” or outgroup, they arealso viewed as a group that cannot be trusted topass on helpful, honest, and reliable informationbecause they are perceived to have self-servingmotives. It also does not help that conspiracytheories are often touted by leaders and peoplein positions of trust and authority (see alsoAntonakis, 2021, for further discussion of leadership during times of crisis). When trustedsources of information argue in favour of conspiracy theories, damaging ideas can easily gainmomentum. One promising line of researchmay therefore be to employ “trusted messengers” to reduce the impact of conspiracy theories. In other words, combating the conspiracytheory may be likely to have more success if thecounterarguments come from trusted sourcessuch as valued ingroup members, instead ofoutgroup members who are typically associatedwith mistrust (Nisbet, 2009). For example, if along-standing member of an online conspiracyforum argues against COVID-19 conspiracytheories, other members of the forum are morelikely to listen to these arguments compared toarguments coming from government representatives or scientists.Another promising line of research suggeststhat “inoculating” people with factual information can stem the influence of conspiracy theories. Jolley and Douglas (2017) showed that forbelievers in antivaccine conspiracy theories, direct
Douglasanticonspiracy arguments increased intentions tovaccinate a fictional child when these argumentswere presented prior to conspiracy theories.However, once the conspiracy theories wereestablished, they were difficult to correct withanticonspiracy arguments. A related strategy maybe preexposure warnings—that is, if people areexplicitly warned up front that the informationthey are about to see may be inaccurate or misleading, they may be more able to resist it(Lewandowsky et al., 2012). This appears to be aneffective strategy as long as the warnings explainthat misinformation can have lasting effects.Similar interventions that present the facts aboutCOVID-19 or prewarn people about misleadinginformation and therefore enable them to spotconspiracy theories before they fall for them, maybe effective strategies against COVID-19 conspiracy theories.Future ResearchCOVID-19 conspiracy theories are likely to haveconsequences for group processes and intergroup relations that are as yet unexplored. First,as people further disidentify with society and itsinstitutions and view themselves as outsiders,this is likely to further fuel mistrust and cynicismand increase people’s feelings of isolation andmarginalisation. People are also likely to feelpowerless rather than powerful as a result ofconsuming conspiracy theories (Jol
the negative consequences of conspiracy theories. Finally, I will consider some open questions for research regarding COVID-19 conspiracy theories, in particular focusing on the potential impact of these conspiracy theories for group processes and intergroup relations. Keywords conspiracy beliefs, conspiracy theories, COVID-19, disinformation .
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