Global Anthropogenic Non-CO Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 .

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EPA 430-R-12-006Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 - 2030Revised December 2012Office of Atmospheric ProgramsClimate Change DivisionU.S. Environmental Protection Agency1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20460December 2012Front MatterPage i

About this ReportThis report provides information on historical and projected estimates of emissions of non-CO2greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources. It includes over 20 individual source categories fromthe energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste sectors. It covers 92 countries, historicalinformation from 1990 to 2005 and business-as-usual projections from 2010 to 2030. Thisdocument is a revision of a draft document published to the EPA website in August 2011.How to Obtain CopiesYou may electronically download this document, and a shortened summary version of the reportfrom the U.S. EPA's webpage economics/nonco2projections.html.How to Obtain the DataYou may electronically download the data compiled for this report in .xls format from the U.S.EPA's webpage economics/nonco2projections.html.For Further Information:If you have questions or would like to provide comments on this draft report, contact JameelAlsalam (alsalam.jameel@epamail.epa.gov) or Shaun Ragnauth (ragnauth.shaun@epa.gov), ClimateChange Division, Office of Atmospheric Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.Expert Reviewed DocumentA draft version of this report has been reviewed by external experts from the private sector,academia, non-governmental organizations, and other government agencies.December 2012Front MatterPage ii

AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared under a contract between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(USEPA) and ICF International (ICF).We thank the following external reviewers who reviewed a draft version of this report: ShawnArchibeque (Colorado State University), Chris Bayliss (International Aluminium Institute), JeanBogner (Landfill, Inc), E. Lee Bray (USGS), Jim Crawford (Trane Company), Stuart Day (CSIRO),Dr. John Freney (CSIRO), Maureen Hardwick (International Pharmaceutical Aerosol Consortium),Mike Jeffs (ISOPA), Kris Johnson (Washington State University), Deborah Kramer (USGS),Lambert Kuijpers, Jan Lewandrowski (USDA),Dr. Changsheng Li (University of New Hampshire),Kenneth J. Martchek (Alcoa, Inc.), May Massoud (American University of Beirut), Mack McFarland(DuPont), Cynthia Murphy (University of Texas), Bob Ridgeway (Air Products), Silvio Stangherlin(CIGRE),Takeshi Yokota (Toshiba, CIGRE). Although these individuals participated in the reviewof this analysis, their efforts do not constitute an endorsement of the report’s results or of anyUSEPA policies and programs.December 2012Front MatterPage iii

December 2012Front MatterPage iv

HFEDecember 2012Annex Ianode effectsFourth Assessment Reportbusiness as usualbiological oxygen demandcompound annual growth rateClean Development MechanismChemical and Economics Handbookcountries with economies in aneCentral Intelligence Agencycarbon dioxideCommon Reporting Formatchemical vapor depositionCenter-Worked Prebakedegradable organic carbonEmission Database for Global Atmospheric Researchemission factorEnergy Information AdministrationEnergy Modeling Forum 22U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyEuropean Semiconductor Industry AssociationEuropean Unionfluorinated greenhouse gasFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationsfirst order decayflat panel displayFormer Soviet Uniongross domestic productgigagramgreenhouse gasglobal warming ersFront MatterPage v

FCPFPBPRPPVSARSF6SiSIASO2SRESSWPBSWDSTARDecember 2012Horizontal Stud SoderbergHalon Technical Options CommitteeInternational Aluminium InstituteInternational Energy AgencyInternational Fertilizer Industry AssociationInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Magnesium AssociationInternational Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and TradeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeInternational Rice Research InstituteJapan Electronic and Information Technology Industries AssociationJoint ImplementationkilogramKorean Semiconductor Industry Associationmetered dose inhalersmillion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalentmunicipal solid wasteNitrogennitrous oxidenon-Annex INational Communicationnitrogen trifluoridenot-in-kindNational Inventory ReportNitrogen oxidesozone-depleting potentialozone-depleting substanceThe Organization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentOriginal Equipment ManufacturersOxidationperfluorocarbonsPoint Feed Prebakepasture, range, and paddockphotovoltaicSecond Assessment Reportsulfur hexafluorideSiliconU.S Semiconductor Industry Associationsulfur dioxideSpecial Report on Emissions ScenariosSide-Worked Prebakesolid waste disposal siteThird Assessment ReportFront MatterPage vi

WTVAIPDecember 2012Technology and Economic Assessment Panelterajouletotal manufacture layer areaTaiwan Semiconductor Industry AssociationUnited National Environmental ProgrammeUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeU.S. Department of AgricultureU.S. Geological SurveyVertical Stud SoderbergWorld Energy OutlookWorld Fab WatchWorld LCD Industry Cooperation CommitteeWorld Semiconductor Councilwastewater treatmentVoluntary Aluminum Industrial PartnershipFront MatterPage vii

Table of Contents1234567Introduction and Overview . 11.1Introduction . 11.2Overview of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions . 11.3Emission Sources . 31.4Region Groupings . 51.5Approach . 71.6Limitations. 81.7Organization of this Report .10Summary Results .112.1Summary Estimates.112.2Trends by Region .122.3Trends by Gas, Sector, and Source Category .152.4Other Global Datasets.17Energy.213.1Natural Gas and Oil Systems (CH4) .233.2Coal Mining Activities (CH4) .263.3Stationary and Mobile Combustion (CH4, N2O) .293.4Biomass Combustion (CH4, N2O) .313.5Other Energy Sources (CH4, N2O).34Industrial Processes .374.1Adipic Acid and Nitric Acid Production (N2O) .414.2Use of Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances (HFCs).424.3HCFC-22 Production (HFCs) .454.4Electric Power Systems (SF6).484.5Primary Aluminum Production (PFCs) .494.6Magnesium Manufacturing (SF6) .524.7Semiconductor Manufacturing (HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3) .534.8Flat Panel Display Manufacturing (PFCs, SF6, NF3).564.9Photovoltaic Manufacturing (PFCs, NF3) .584.10 Other Industrial Processes Sources (CH4, N2O) .60Agriculture .635.1Agricultural Soils (N2O) .655.2Enteric Fermentation (CH4) .685.3Rice Cultivation (CH4) .705.4Manure Management (CH4, N2O) .715.5Other Agriculture Sources (CH4, N2O) .75Waste .776.1Landfilling of Solid Waste (CH4) .786.2Wastewater (CH4) .816.3Human Sewage – Domestic Wastewater (N2O) .836.4Other Waste Sources (CH4, N2O) .84Methodology.877.1Energy .897.2Industrial Processes.977.3Agriculture . 136December 2012Front MatterPage i

87.4Waste . 151References . 1618.1Introduction and Overview . 1618.2Summary Results . 1618.3Energy . 1628.4Industry . 1638.5Agriculture . 1648.6Waste . 1658.7Methodology . 165December 2012Front MatterPage ii

AppendicesAppendix A: Total Emissions by CountryAppendix B: Energy Sector EmissionsAppendix C: Industrial Processes Sector EmissionsAppendix D: Agriculture Sector EmissionsAppendix E: Waste Sector EmissionsAppendix F: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (RefAC) DisaggregationAppendix G: Methodology Applied to Develop Source EmissionsAppendix H: Data Sources Used to Develop Non-Country-Reported EmissionsEstimatesAppendix I: Future Mitigation Measures Included in Developing Non-CountryReported EstimatesAppendix J: Regional DefinitionsAppendix K: U.S. EPA Vintaging Model FrameworkDecember 2012Front MatterPage iii

1 Introduction and Overview1.1 IntroductionThis report provides historical and projected estimates of emissions of non-carbon dioxide (nonCO2) greenhouse gases (GHGs) from anthropogenic sources. The report provides a consistent andcomprehensive estimate of non-CO2 greenhouse gases for 92 individual countries and eight regions.The analysis provides information that can be used to understand national contributions of GHGemissions, historical progress on reductions, and mitigation opportunities. Although this documentis being published by the EPA, the U.S. projections are generated using the same methodologiesused for all countries, and is based on IPCC Tier 1 calculations supplemented with country-reportedinventory data where available. The dataset compiled for this report is available in spreadsheet (.xls)format on the U.S. EPA's webpage at: tml.The gases included in this report are the direct non-CO2 GHGs covered by the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), andthe Fluorinated Greenhouse Gases (F-GHG). The F-GHGs include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). In addition, nitrogen fluoride (NF3) isconsidered. Compounds covered by the Montreal Protocol are not included in this report, althoughmany of them are also F-GHGs. Historical estimates are reported for 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005and projections of emissions are provided for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. Projections reflectthe currently achieved impact of sector-specific climate policy programs, agreements, and measuresthat are already in place, but exclude GHG reductions due to additional planned activities andeconomy-wide programs whose impacts on individual sectors are less certain.To develop estimates included in this report, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)collected emission estimates from publicly available nationally-prepared GHG reports consistentwith the Revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse GasInventories (IPCC Guidelines) (IPCC, 1997), the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Managementin National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC Good Practice Guidance) (IPCC, 2000), and the Revised2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCCGuidelines) (IPCC, 2006). If national estimates were unavailable from nationally-prepared GHGreports, EPA estimated non-CO2 GHG emissions in order to produce a complete global inventory.EPA’s calculated emission estimates are prepared in a consistent manner across all countries usingIPCC default methodologies, international statistics for activity data, and the IPCC Tier 1 defaultemission factors.1.2 Overview of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas EmissionsAs shown in Exhibit 1-1, global emissions of CH4, N2O, and F-GHGs account for approximately 28percent of global radiative forcing since the pre-industrial era of GHGs covered by the UNFCCC(IPCC, 2007). Emissions of non-CO2 GHGs contribute significantly to radiative forcing 1 since theyare more effective at trapping heat than CO2. The IPCC uses the concept of the global warmingpotential (GWP) to compare the ability of different gases to trap heat in the atmosphere relative toRadiative forcing is the change in the balance between radiation coming into and going out of the atmosphere. Positiveradiative forcing tends on average to warm the surface of the Earth, and negative forcing tends on average to cool thesurface (IPCC, 2007).1December 20121. Introduction and OverviewPage 1

CO2. Emissions of non-CO2 gases are converted to a CO2-equivalent basis using the 100-year GWPspublished in the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR) (IPCC, 1996). Table 1-1 shows GWPs ofselect gases from IPCC’s Second Assessment Report. 2 These GWPs, as well as GWPs for additionalgases (see Table 4-1) were used in this report.Exhibit 1-1: Contribution of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Global Radiative Forcing(W/m2)CH420.7%Non-CO 228.4%CO 271.6%N2 O6.9%High GWPs0.7%Source: IPCC, 2007: Table 2.1Table 1-1: Global Warming PotentialsGasCarbon dioxide (CO2)GWPa1Methane (CH4)Nitrous Oxide ugh the GWPs have been updated by the IPCC in the Third Assessment Report (TAR)(IPCC, 2001) and again in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007), estimates ofemissions in this report continue to use the GWPs from the Second Assessment Report (SAR)(IPCC, 1996), in order to be consistent with international reporting standards under the UNFCCC.However, some of the F-GHGs estimated in this report do not have GWPs in the SAR. In thesecases, this report uses the TAR GWPs or other published data(see Table 4-1 for additional gases).December 20121. Introduction and OverviewPage 2

,200C4F107,000C6F147,400SF623,900Source: IPCC, 1996100 year time horizon.aEPA estimates that global non-CO2 GHG emissions in 2005 were about 11,000 million metric tonsof carbon dioxide equivalents (MtCO2e 3). When this non-CO2 emissions estimate is added to aglobal CO2 emissions estimate for 2005 of approximately 32,000 MtCO2 (WRI, 2010),anthropogenic non-CO2 emissions represent 25 percent of the global GHG emissions emittedannually on a CO2 equivalent basis in 2005.1.3 Emission SourcesThis report focuses exclusively on anthropogenic sources of non-CO2 GHGs. Table 1-2 lists thesource categories discussed in this report. All anthropogenic sources of CH4 and N2O are included(with a few exceptions noted in Section 1.6). The major sources are considered individually andemi

CEH Chemical and Economics Handbook CEIT countries with economies in transition CFC chlorofluorocarbon CF 4 perfluoromethane C 2F 6 hexafluoroethane C 3F 8 perfluoropropane c-C 4F 8 perfluorocyclobutane CH 4 methane CIA Central Intelligence Agency CO 2 carbon dioxide CRF Common Reporting Format CVD chemical vapor deposition CWPB Center-Worked .

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