THE ST ATE Of THE SHopping CEnTEr - Nielsen

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In ProgressT H E S TaT Eof THESHoppingCEnTErCopyright 2013 The Nielsen Company1

BriCK BYBriCK: THESTaTE of THESHoppingCEnTErDespite the boom in digital marketing and online shopping,consumers still make the vast majority of their purchases at brickand-mortar stores. Shopping centers aren’t just places to buy things.They’re social centers, places for entertainment and employmenthubs. They’re also transforming what consumers can expect from ashopping experience.With the increasing diversification and aging of the U.S. population,the line between shopping, entertainment, and community buildinghas blurred. This blending of experiences has created an opportunityfor retail to strengthen social ties within communities looking forcommunal experiences. And, it’s not just the new entrants that aregetting involved in the trend. Not surprisingly, many big box retailershave downsized their formats to better meet shopper expectationsand desires for more of an experience destination.22OFTHE SHOPPINGStateSTATEof theShoppingCenterCENTER

“One of the great strengths of the larger malls is the ability toconstantly re-invent itself to better serve and meet the needs of anevolving community. Those that understand this vital integrationof three supposedly divergent--but yet closely aligned influences:demographics of the trade area, retail tenant mix, developer/to TamaShor,of MajorMalls, theylandlord--Accordingare the onesthatwillPresident,prosper. DirectoryDespite llsistheabilitytomay appear-- the Long Island sprawling suburban mall, the downtownconstantly re-invent itself to better serve and meet the needs of ancomplex in Chicago, the destination behemoth in Canada, the sunevolving community. Those that understand this vital integrationdrenched colossus in Hawaii, the growing number of entertainmentof three supposedly divergent--but yet closely aligned influences:centers inevery U.S. market--eachfollowsbroaddemographicsof the trade area,retail thistenantmix, sof the market.”landlord-the ones tothatwill prosper.Despite how different theymay appear-- the Long Island sprawling suburban mall, the downtownIn this report, Nielsen takes a look at the trends affecting the size andcomplex in Chicago, the destination behemoth in Canada, the sunshape of the shopping center industry, as well as some of the shiftingdrenched colossus in Hawaii, the growing number of entertainmentconsumerfactorsaffectingthe sin everyU.S. market--eachthis ofbroadofsector tounderstandingcapture the consumer’sand adheringdollar.to needs of the market.”What we’llexplore:In thisreport, Nielsen takes a look at the trends affecting the size and shape of the shopping center industry, as well as some of the shiftingconsumer factors affecting the strategic direction of this powerfulThe “experience”sector to capture the consumer’s dollar. ChangescentertypeWhat bywe’llexplore: Top ofcharts theHowthe bricks stack up across the nation Regionaltrends The“experience” Changesby centertypePotentialchallengesfor centers Top of facethe chartsThe changingof the consumer How the bricks stack up across the nation-r Regional trends The changing face of the consumerby gender ethnicPotentialchallenges for centersbygroup Market deep dives – San Jose, Riverside and Washington, DC What doesmean?- itbyallethnicgroup-by gender Market deep dives – San Jose, Riverside and Washington, DC What does it all mean?CopyrightCopyright 2013 t 2013theThenielsen333

HoWDoDoTHETHEHoWBriCKSSTaCKBriCKSSTaCKUpaCroSSUp aCroSSTHE naTion?THE naTion?4State of theSTATEShoppingCenterOF THESHOPPING CENTER

The bricks are stacking up well for the shopping center industry.Sales are increasing and shopping centers are growing. Totalshopping center sales for 2012 topped 2.4 trillion – an increase of2.8% over 2011. Shopping center sales account for over half of retailsales in the U.S.iShopping centers have also grown in numbers and in gross leasablearea (GLA) over the past five years. The number of large shoppingcenters (200K GLA) jumped 65% between 2008 and 2013, while GLAincreased 41% during the same period. These large shopping centersaccount for roughly 7% of total malls/shopping centers. However,despite their small numbers, large shopping centers account for muchof the retail space in the U.S., 46% of total mall/shopping center GLA.Nielsen is seeing similar trends in store-level footprints—they’reeither going very big or very small. Take Wal-Mart’s approach tosupersize its already large store footprints in some areas, creatingone-stop, one basket shopping destinations.ii Alternatively, smallerstores like convenience stores have grown as a destination for quicktrips. Convenience stores tend to locate in smaller shopping centers,potentially drawing consumers away from larger shopping centers.This trend, to super-size, is observed at the shopping center-levelas well. Power centers, which include big box retailers as anchorsand few smaller tenants, have experienced growth in both size andnumber in the past five years.ToTal shoPPIngcenTer sales for2012 ToPPed 2.4trIllIon – anIncrease of 2.8%over 2011.Summary of ICSC ShoppIng Center ClaSSIfICatIonSTYPESUB-TYPESHOPPING CENTER CONCEPTSIZE RANGE SQ. FT.Regional CenterGeneral merchandise; fashion400,000-800,000Super Regional CenterSame as regional; more variety & assortmentOver 800,000Neighborhood CenterConvenience30,000-150,000*Community CenterGeneral merchandise; convenience100,000-350,000*Lifestyle CenterUpscale; national specialty; entertainment; outdoor150,000-500,000Power CenterCategory-dominant anchors; few small tenants250,000-600,000entertainment CenterLeisure; tourist-oriented; retail & service80,000-250,000*Value Retail CenterManufacturer’s outlet stores50,000-400,000MALLSOPeN-AIR CeNTeRSSources: Runstad Center, ICSC*Centers under 200K GLA are not included in the Nielsen analysis.rCopyrightCopyright 2013 TheNielsenCompany2013the nielsenCompany55

THE ConSUMEranD THESHopping“EXpEriEnCE”The consumer wants an “experience.” The trend Nielsen has reportedabout the proliferation of supercenter stores coexists with the trendof growth in the number of Lifestyle Centers. Lifestyle Centers mixtraditional retail tenants with upscale leisure uses, giving shoppersmore than just a place to buy—it gives them an experience and aplace to gather.On the flip side, bigger isn’t always better. Some large big boxretailers have introduced smaller footprints to accommodatethe consumer’s desire for an intimate neighborhood shoppingexperience, or the quick fix, in between the fill-up your basket weeklytrips. Target launched their smaller concept, City Target, in majormetros like Chicago, Los Angeles and Seattle emphasizing bothcreative design and easy access for urban shoppers who don’t wantto travel long distances to grab necessity items, electronics, as wellas groceries. Target plans to open eight of these new concepts by theend of 2013 to cater to residents, employees in the area, and touristswho forget their toothbrushes.This desire for a unique shopping experience is coming through loudand clear, as we’ve seen the largest declines in the number of themore traditional malls, regional and super-regional centers—placeswith more conventional “product-focused” and not “experiencefocused” shopping environments.Community centers have remained relatively constant over thepast five years in terms of the percentage of shopping centersin this category between 2008 and 2013. These centers provideneighborhood-serving amenities like grocery stores and dry cleaners,which are always in demand. Value retail centers (with outlet stores)and entertainment centers (with leisure and tourist tenants), haveboth remained relatively constant in growth over the past five years at3% and 1% of total shopping centers, respectively.66STATEOFShoppingTHE SHOPPINGCENTERStateof theCenter

CHANGE IN SHOPPING CENTER TYPE (2008-2013)SHOPPINGCENTER TYPESHOPPING CENTER CONCEPT2013 %COMP2008 %COMPPERCENTCHANGECommunity CentersGeneral merchandise, convenience45%46%-1Power CentersCategory-dominant anchors withfew small tenants18%13%5Lifestyle CentersUpscale, national specialty,entertainment, outdoors15%9%6Regional CentersGeneral merchandise and fashion11%18%-7Super-Regional CentersGeneral merchandise, fashion, more varietythan regional6%10%-4Value Retail CentersManufacturer's outlet stores3%3%0Entertainment CentersLeisure, tourist-oriented, retail & service1%1%0Source: Directory of Major Malls (DMM) 2013 and 2008 dataLarger shopping centers (200K GLA) tend to be concentrated in themajor metros in the East and West Coasts to serve the large consumerpopulations. On the East Coast, large centers like Westfield GardenState Plaza in Paramus, NJ, King of Prussia Mall in King of Prussia,PA, Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City, NY and Palisades Centerin West Nyack, NY stand out not only as shopping destinations butalso as community landmarks. On the West Coast, large centers likeSouth Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, CA and Del Amo Fashion Center inTorrance, CA draw shoppers from all over Southern California.RCopyrightCopyright 2013 TheNielsenCompany2013The NielsenCompany77

natIonal ShoppIng Center DIStrIButIonsource: directory of Major Malls 2013Tenant composition in shopping centers has remained relativelyconstant over the past five years with a couple of exceptions.There has been slight growth in the percentage of food stores andrestaurants in shopping centers from 17% of tenants in 2008 to19% in 2013. This parallels findings from the Nielsen RestaurantGrowth Index (RGI), which charts restaurant openings and sales.This Nielsen research saw a national uptick of 47,161 new restaurantopenings in 2012—many of which have been in Lifestyle Centers.iiiOn the other hand, the number of specialty stores across a range ofproduct categories housed within shopping centers has declined asthe percentage of tenants dropped from 16% in 2008 to 13% in 2013.Many suffered as the economy struggled following the end of therecent recession. For example, the Bombay Company closed all of itsretail outlets starting in 2008, and The Disney Store has closed onethird of its locations since 2008.From an employment perspective, the retail sector has been doingmore than its fair share of helping get things back on track. In fact,retailers, restaurants and bars were the biggest contributors to April2013’s U.S. employment growth, according to numbers released by theU.S. government and the International Council of Shopping Centers(ICSC). In April, the U.S. shopping-center retail sector added 33,00088OFTHE SHOPPINGStateSTATEof theShoppingCenterCENTER

jobs, accounting for one-fifth of the 165,000 jobs added during themonth, as reported by ICSC. Restaurants and bars hired another38,000. ICSC’s number for retail jobs added is slightly higher than thegovernment’s figure of 29,000.During the 12 months ending in April, U.S. shopping centersfilled 213,000 jobs. The industry now employs 12.5 million people,accounting for 9.3 percent of all payroll employment, according toICSC, which compiles the statistics used by the U.S. Department ofLabor. The industry’s retail employment had recovered slightly over ahalf-million jobs through April 2013 since hitting its previous cyclicallow in December 2009.TaKing a LooKaT rEgionaLTrEnDSAt a regional or core-based statistical area (CBSA)-level, varioustrends emerge in shopping center composition. One thing is clear inlooking at the past five years: operators are shifting away from thetraditional enclosed mall and opting for smaller, specialty lifestylecenters. Regional and super regional centers tend to have a largefootprint making new development a challenge in a tough real estatemarket. Lifestyle centers tend to be more heavily concentrated inurban areas, while the larger regional and super-regional centerstend to be more heavily concentrated in suburban and rural areas.While the New York CBSA tops the charts for having the mostshopping centers overall to serve its large population and diversity, itis also a top area for the greatest number of specialty stores. MyrtleBeach, SC tops the charts for most shopping centers per capita. Thisdesignation likely results from being a tourist destination that servesthe needs of unique visitors.Washington, DC is home to the most lifestyle centers withentertainment built-in for shoppers seeking more than just shopping.Chicago ranks number one for having the most regional centers(traditional enclosed malls), these remain popular formats for theshelter they provide from harsh winter weather.While in contrast, Los Angeles residents and visitors are most likelyto shop at one of the many entertainment centers focused aroundleisure and tourist-oriented services.Here’s a look at who’s hitting the top of the charts.rCopyrightCopyright 2013 TheNielsenCompany2013the nielsenCompany99

Most shopping centers:Most Power centers:Most specialty storesneW york CBSaneW york CBSain shopping centers:neW york CBSaMost shopping centers per capita:Myrtle BeaCh, SC CBSaMost food stores & restaurantsin shopping centers:Most regional centers:ChiCago CBSaDallaS-ft. Worth-arlington,tX CBSaMost lifestyle centers:Most ethnic grocery stores:Most entertainment centers:WaShington, DC CBSaCalifornialoS angeleS-longBeaCh CBSasource: directory of Major Malls 2013 and IBIsWorld ethnic supermarkets Industry report (IBIsWorld.com)1010State of the Shopping CenterSTATE OF THE SHOPPING CENTER

DIStIButIon of lIfeStyle CenterS anD regIonal/Super regIonal CenterSsource: directory of Major Malls 2013poTEnTiaLCHaLLEngESfor L argErSHoppingCEnTErSConvenIenCe Store gaInSConvenience stores (C-stores) are growing—faster than the overallmarket, in fact. Nielsen reports C-store growth of 4.9% for the 52week period ending Aug. 4, 2012, compared with 3.7% growth for theoverall market. Twenty-three of the 30 largest C-store operating firmshave increased their store counts since 2007. The top 10 chains, asseen on the next page, have added the most stores—almost 1,600.Smaller retail centers, anchored by convenience stores, are growingeven as the larger retail activity landscape is seeing growth of thelargest centers. This indicates there is room for large and smallshopping centers to coexist in the retail landscape, as well as newformats and concepts, reflected in the high “other” category at 6.2%.rCopyright 2013 the nielsen CompanyCopyright 2013 The Nielsen Company1111

revenue groWth By Store formatTOTAL SALES IN BILLIONS6.2%4.9%2.5%oTherconvenIence sToresdrUg sTores3.7%1.5%all oUTleTs coMBInedsUPerMarKeTsPlUs c-sToresexpanSIon from top tIer ChaInS, But Smaller ChaInS anDInDepenDentS StIll CommanD 68% of total Store CountC-STORE UNIVERSE(% OF STORES)2007Top 1034,838 (23.8)11-20MID-2012CHANGELEADING GAINERS36,426 (24.5) 1,5887-eleven ( 1,319) andCouche - Tard ( 577)6,542 (4.5)7,144 (4.8) 602Pilot Flying J ( 183) and QuickTrip ( 123)21-303,453 (2.4)3,939 (2.6) 486Sheetz ( 79) andKwik Trip ( 45)All Other101,461 (69.3)101,255 (68.1)-206-total C-StoreS146,294148,764 2,470-source: nielsen 2012 growing appetite for c-stores: More opportunity for growth report1212State of the Shopping CenterSTATE OF THE SHOPPING CENTER

E-CoMMErCEgainSAlthough e-commerce is growing, consumers still spend mostof their retail dollars at physical stores. People still like to touchthe merchandise, compare items and participate in the store“experience.”Older consumers are more likely to shop at brick and mortarlocations rather than in cyberspace. Despite this need to handlethe merchandise, e-Commerce still represented 5.4 percent of retailsales in Q4 2012, up from 3.6 percent in Q1 2008. Affluent suburbanfamilies are the biggest online spenders. They’re more than twice aslikely as the average U.S. household to spend more than 200 onlineper year, yet they still manage to shop at luxury retailers in the malltoo.So which channels are topping the growth charts? While Nielsenexpects Club, Dollar and Supercenters to grow in the coming years,growth in e-commerce will lead the pack—continuing the trend we’veseen over the past five years. e-commerce poses a unique opportunityfor shopping centers and their tenants—one that should involveembracing this change and employing cross-channel real estate andmarketing efforts.e-COMMeRCe ASA PeRCeNTAGeOF TOTAL SALeSIS VeRY LOW,SO BRICK ANDMORTAR WILL STILLCAPTURe MOST OFTHe SALeS.source: nielsen affluence in america report, oct. 2012e-CoMMerCe PerCentage of retail SaleSPERCENTAGE OF RETAIL essIon080Q 09220Q 09320Q 094200Q 9120Q 10220Q 10320Q 104201Q 0120Q 11220Q 11320Q 11420Q 11120Q 12220Q 12320Q 124201212QQ420080820Q3202QQ120080.0%source: retail Indicators Branch, U.s. census Bureau, 2013rCopyright 2013 the nielsen CompanyCopyright 2013 The Nielsen Company1313

e-CoMMerCe, ClUB, Dollar, SUPerCenterS & PetS are the Big WinnerSProJecTed coMPoUnd annUal groWTh raTe 2010 To 1PETDRUG2.72.1 CONVENIENCE/GAS1.5 SUPERMARKETS1.2 LIQUOR0.4 DISCOUNT DEPT0.3 SPORTING GOODSHOME IMPROVEMENTDEPARTMENT-0.1-0.4AUTO-0.5HOME, BED, BATH-0.5OFFICE-0.5APPARELELECTRONICSBOOKSTOYMASS MERCH-0.8-0.9-1.1FORECASTED TO GAIN SHAREFORECASTED TO LOSE SHARE-1.7-3.0source: nielsen Tdlinx & nielsen analytics1414State of the Shopping CenterSTATE OF THE SHOPPING CENTER

THE CHangingfaCE of THESHoppErShopping center composition isn’t the only thing in flux. Shoppershave changed over the past five years as well, largely because ofshifting demographics, a shaky economy and tighter discretionaryspending. Staying up-to-date with consumer preferences shifts canhelp shopping centers and retailers ensure they’re meeting the needsof the communities they serve.April 2013 saw a sharp increase to 68 in the Consumer ConfidenceIndex (as measured by The Conference Board), and we’ve beenwatching an increase in retail spending post recession. Shoppingcenters and their tenants stand to benefit from this increase inconfidence and spending as shoppers head to the malls andopen their wallets. Now, as consumer confidence starts to steady,consumers are spending more on retail and eating out, as seen in thegraph on page 16.ConSUMer ConfiDenCe inDeX - JanUary 2002 throUgh aPril IndIcaTes a change In sUrveY MeThodologYsource: consumer confidence Index, The conference BoardrCopyright 2013 the nielsen CompanyCopyright 2013 The Nielsen Company1515

Monthly % Change in retail traDe & fooD SerViCeSSPenDing - SeaSonally L-2008RECOVERYRECESSION210-1-2-3-4source: U.s. census Bureau (44Y72: retail Trade & food service, excluding auto)1616State of the Shopping CenterSTATE OF THE SHOPPING CENTER

gEnDErDiffErEnCES BYrETaiL CHannELShare of retaIl ChannelShoppIng trIpSFEMALES757470666363Men shop on Mars and Women shop on Venus. Women are muchmore likely to visit the larger shopping centers than men. Theyprefer the variety and specialty stores that these concepts provideand enjoy the destination experience these concepts deliver.Men are most likely to visit the convenience/gas locations fora quick trip to pick up essential items. They’re also frequentshoppers at warehouse clubs and grocery stores, but

The bricks are stacking up well for the shopping center industry. Sales are increasing and shopping centers are growing. Total shopping center sales for 2012 topped 2.4 trillion – an increase of 2.8% over 2011. Shopping center sales account for over half of retail sales in the U.S. i Shopping centers have also grown in numbers and in gross .

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