Science To Guide Floodplain Protection & Restoration In .
Science to Guide Floodplain Protection & Restorationin the Mississippi River BasinKris Johnson, PhDRNRF CongressCharting a New Course for the Mississippi River WatershedDecember 3, 2019
Multiple Benefits of Floodplains
Successful Floodplain Projects
Floodplain PrioritizationHow do we scale up?Where to invest?
US Floodplain AnalysisNEW US model LISFLOOD-FP routes flows throughchannels delineated by HydroSHEDS Regionalized flood frequency analysis 10 return periods from 5 to 1000 yrs Explicit representation of USACE NLD Validated with FEMA and USGS data(Wing et al. 2017)5
US Floodplain Analysis
US Floodplain Analysis41 million people at risk 5 TRILLION exposedWing et al 2018
US Floodplain Analysis
US Floodplain Analysis675,9192km natural area in 100-year floodplain 306 B to acquireavoids 593 Billion future damages by 2070Johnson et al in press
FPTool.org
Water Quality Nutrient loading to local waters Nutrient loading to Gulf ofMexico Growing degree days – Inconjunction with higher loading,facilitates denitrification
Important Bird Areas(Audubon)TNC Ecoregional RollupUnitsUSFWS Threatened &Endangered SpeciesBird Corridors & Key HabitatAreas (American BirdConservancy)Number of At-Risk WetlandSpecies (EPA)Fish Habitat DegradationRisk Index (NFHP)
Soil Quality National Commodity CropProductivity Index – Ameasure of soils’ inherentcapacity to producecommodity crops Draw restoration efforts torelatively less desirable soils
Flood Risk Current population in thefloodplain Future population (2050) in thefloodplain Future property damage (2050)from flooding
Other Risk LayersSocial VulnerabilityIndex Census tract scaleIndex of social vulnerability to disaster based on 22 variables fromAmerican Community SurveyE.g. per-capita income, % pop. 20 and 64 yrs. old, % NativeAmerican, % with less than 12th-grade education, % Hispanic, etc.Ag Losses fromFlooding Census block group scale value of row-crop losses assuming 100-year floodof 24 hrs. duration on June 1, modeled with HEC-FIA
FloodfrequencySpatial scaleAction type
FloodfrequencySpatial scaleAction typeRestorableareaNutrient loadingGrowing degreedaysRestoration priorities: Nutrient focus
Restoration priorities: Nutrient focus
Switch spatialscale
Eliminate areaswith highlyproductive soilsIn TNCEcoregionalAssessmentpriority areaMore severestresses to fishhabitat
Future populationFuture flooddamages Restoration priorities:Has 500 restorable acres 33/100 for nutrient loadingIn a TNC ecoregional assessment priorityRelatively greater fish habitat stressorsRelatively less productive soilAt least 30 ppl. in floodplain by 2050At least 500K in damages by 2050
Future populationFuture flooddamages
100-year floodfrequencyRestorableareaNutrient loading
At-risk wetlandspeciesMore severestresses to fishhabitatFuture population
At-risk wetlandspeciesMore severestresses to fishhabitatFuture populationFuture flooddamagesRestoration priorities:Has nonzero restorable acres 50/100 for nutrient loadingIn a TNC ecoregional assessment priorityHas at-risk wetland speciesRelatively greater fish habitat stressorsAt least 10 ppl. in floodplain by 2050At least 10K in damages by 2050
The FP Tool utilized on Missouri’s Meramec River
Lower Meramec RiverMulti-JurisdictionalFlood ManagementPlan 70 river miles onthe Meramec 25 river miles onthe Bourbeuse 20 river miles onthe Big River
Silver Jacket’s Lower Meramec Floodplain Management Plan Partners
At-risk wetland speciesCurrent populationFuture populationFuture property damage Criteria for PROTECTION:At least 1,000 acres of floodplain in forestor wetlandBottom 50% for nutrient loadingNonzero current pop. & projected 2050pop. 100 ppl.Projected 2050 flood damage 10,000,000
Upcoming Data & Development Updated data from USGS SPARROW model Places resilient to climate change Improved mapping of levee locations Estimate of Carbon sequestration in floodplain Future floodplain maps based on climate change Development of customized tools for localgeographies – e.g. lower Meramec River in Missouri
Upcoming Data & Development
Upcoming Data & Development
Thank You!kjohnson@tnc.org@KrisAJohnsonAtchafalaya River, LA
Lower Meramec River Multi-Jurisdictional Flood Management Plan 70 river miles on the Meramec 25 river miles on the Bourbeuse 20 river miles on . Future floodplain maps based on climate change Development of customized tools for local geographies –e.g. lower Meramec River in Missouri
In this study, I compare groundwater recharge processes and their influence on floodplain groundwater elevation in a channelized coastal plain floodplain with a similar-sized non-channelized coastal Plain floodplain. I tested two hypotheses: a) that groundwater is deeper in floodplains along channelized than along non-channelized
interns from the Florida State University. Attendees at the 2017 conference of the Florida Floodplain Managers Association contributed valuable insight and comments. Final Toolkit prepared by Steve Martin, State Floodplain Manager and FDEM Floodplain Management Specialists Shannon Riess, Mike DeRuntz, and Jay Anderson. Graphic and technical support
Kentucky Floodplain Administrators Handbook. A Guide for Local Permitting Officials. This handbook is published by the Floodplain Management Section of the Department for Environmental Protection, Division of Water and is supported with Federal funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The contents do not necessarily
telephone and sewer lines; and streets and bridges located in regulatory floodplain and erosion hazard areas; 8. Help maintain a stable tax base by providing for the protection of regulatory floodplain and erosion hazard areas; 9. Inform the public where property lies within a regulatory floodplain, riparian habitat area or erosion hazard area; 10.
Hydrological impacts of floodplain restoration: a case study of the River Cherwell, UK 77 Hydrological and hydraulic modelling In this study, hydrological and hydraulic models were used so that the implications of changes in the river channel (e.g. narrowing) or river-floodplain connec
CITY SERVICES AND PHONE LIST 2011-2012 Before you build in the floodplain: All new develop- ment and construction in the floodplain is regulated and re-quires a special review before a building permit is
floodplain map (2013), an estimated 3,600 square feet (SF) of driveway would be located in the floodplain. Currently, approximately SF of housing units, 2,200 SF of driveway, and 8,100 5,700 SF of sidewalk are located in the floodplain. As part of demolition of existing homes and new construction,
FEMA Floodplain Management Bulletin P-2140 1 1. Introduction This floodplain management bulletin clarifies and refines the requirements that apply to certain agricultural structures and accessory structures proposed to be located in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). These requirements are set forth by the Federal Emergency Management Agency
