Energy, Electricity And Nuclear Power Estimates For The .

NRC051REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 12011 EditionEnergy,Electricity andNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2050INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNAISBN 978-92-0-119410-7ISSN 1011-2642@

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1energy, electricity andnuclear power estimatesfor the period up to 20502011 EditionINTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2011

energy, electricity andnuclear power estimatesfor the period up to 2050IAEA-RDS-1/31ISBN 978–92–0–119410–7ISSN 1011–2642Printed by the IAEA in AustriaAugust 2011

CONTENTSIntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Table 1.Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2010). . . . . . . . . 15Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . 17Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement. . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by typeof fuel in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel typein 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energyrequirement during the period1970–2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energyrequirement in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricitygeneration by type of fuel in 2010 . . . . . . . . 36Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region . . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricityrequirement per capita. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita. . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita. . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during theperiod 2000–2010 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during theperiod 2000–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annualgrowth rates during the period2010–2030 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

IntroductionReference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annualpublication — currently in its thirty first edition — containingestimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trendsup to the year 2050.RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclearpower in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2010. Thedata on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 arebased on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’sPower Reactor Information System (PRIS). However,energy and electricity data for 2010 are estimated, asthe latest information available from the United NationsDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2008only. Population data originate from the World PopulationProspects (2010 revision), published by the PopulationDivision of the United Nations Department of Economicand Social Affairs. The 2010 values again are estimates.As in previous editions, projections of future energyand electricity demand and the role of nuclear powerare presented as low and high estimates encompassingthe inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends.The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very generalgrowth trends whose validity must be constantly subjectedto critical review.Beginning with the 30th edition of this publication,however, the end-point of the estimates was extendedup to the year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond2030 has been prompted by the interest expressed bynumerous Member States currently without nuclearpower in adding nuclear energy to their future nationalenergy supply mixes. Given the extensive lead times inplanning and implementing nuclear power programmes,a fair share of these are likely to result in actual plantcommissioning and grid connection after 2030.Many international, national and private organizationsroutinely engage in energy demand and supply projections,including nuclear power. These projections are basedon a multitude of different assumptions and aggregatingprocedures, which make a straightforward comparisonand synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer tosuch fundamental input assumptions as:5

Economic growth;Correlation of economic growth and energy use;Technology performance and costs;Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;Energy policy and physical, environmental andeconomic constraints.The projections presented in this publication are basedon a compromise between: National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study; Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators; Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclearpower projections made by other internationalorganizations.More specifically, the estimates of future nucleargenerating capacity presented in Table 3 are derivedfrom a country by country ‘bottom up’ approach. They areestablished by a group of experts participating each yearin the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear Capacity Projectionsand based upon a review of nuclear power projects andprogrammes in Member States. The experts consider allthe operating reactors, possible license renewals, plannedshutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseenfor the next several decades. They build the projectionsproject by project by assessing the plausibility of each inlight of, first, the low projection’s assumptions and, second,the high projection’s assumptions.The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but notextreme, underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.The low case represents expectations about the futureif current trends continued and there were few changes inpolicies affecting nuclear power other than those already inthe pipeline. This case was explicitly designed to produce a6

‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally,the low case did not automatically assume that targetsfor nuclear power growth in a particular country wouldnecessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxedin the high case.The high case projections are much more optimistic,but still plausible and technically feasible. The high caseassumes that the current financial and economic crises willbe overcome in the not so distant future and past rates ofeconomic growth and electricity demand, especially in theFar East, would essentially resume. In addition, the highcase assumes the implementation of stringent policiesglobally targeted at mitigating climate change.Developing the 2011 nuclear power projections poseda considerable challenge. First the financial and economiccrises that started in 2008 have not been overcome inmany regions. Second, the Fukushima-Daiichi accidentand its likely impact on future nuclear power developmentis difficult to foresee. The accident was a tragedy forthe people affected and seriously undermined publicconfidence in the safety of nuclear power. A number ofcountries announced reviews of their programmes, sometook steps toward phasing out nuclear power entirely, andothers re-emphasized their expansion plans. Third, a newinternational environmental agreement on the regulationof greenhouse gases replacing the Kyoto Protocolthat would make the climate benefits of nuclear energyfinancially visible to investors is still being negotiated.Regardless of these uncertainties, the continuedgrowth in both the 2011 low and high projections suggeststhat the reasons for increased interest in nuclear powerbefore the accident have not changed by the accident:(a) energy and electricity demand growth continue to bedriven by population growth and economic development;(b) concerns continue to persist about security of energysupply and high and volatile fossil fuel prices; and (c) thequest for stable electricity generating costs is still a majorincentive for public and private sector interest in nuclearpower. Moreover, the overall performance and safety ofnuclear power plants continue to be good. All this pointsto continued strong growth of nuclear power in the longerterm.7

The 2011 projections faced the complex need tobalance the factors that have traditionally driven, andcontinue to drive, the future demand for nuclear powerwith the factors that potentially could adversely affectnuclear power expansion. The result of this balancingact shows the world’s installed nuclear power capacityexpanding from 375 gigawatts (GW(e)) today to501 GW(e) in 2030, i.e. a decrease of 8% compared withlast years's projection. In the updated high projection, itgrows to 746 GW(e) in 2030, down by 7% from last year.The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plantsis converted to joules based on the average efficiency of anuclear power plant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generatedby geothermal heat are converted to joules based on theaverage efficiency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10%.The conversion to joules of electricity generated byhydropower or by other non-thermal sources such aswind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of theelectricity generated (the equivalent of assuming 100%efficiency).The total energy requirement has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers anddomestic stocks.The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyused for the generation of electricity. Owing to differencesin conversion efficiencies, the percentage valuesare different from the shares of electricity generationpresented in Tables 1 and 5.Energy Units1 MW(e) 106 watts (electrical)1 GW(e) 1000 MW(e) 109 watts (electrical)1 GJ 1 gigajoule 109 joules1 EJ 1 exajoule 1018 joules1 EJ 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)1 TW·h 1 terawatt-hour 109 kW·h 3.6 10–3 EJ8

GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREASThe countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)North AmericaCanada*Latin AmericaAnguillaAntigua and aBolivia*Brazil*Cayman IslandsChile*Colombia*Costa Rica*Cuba*DominicaDominican Republic*Ecuador*El Salvador*GrenadaGuadeloupeGuatemala*GuyanaWestern d*France*Germany*GibraltarGreece*GreenlandHoly See*Iceland*Ireland*Italy*United States of ntserratNetherlands AntillesNicaragua*Panama*Paraguay*Peru*Puerto RicoS.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint Pierre and MiquelonSaint Vincent & the GrenadinesSurinameTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos Malta*Monaco*Netherlands*Norway*Portugal*San MarinoSpain*Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsSweden*Switzerland*Turkey*United Kingdom*9