Global Future Trends

Global Future Trends7 Global Megatrends 203018 City Innovations toward Bangkok 20301

7 Global MegatrendsTrend 1: Changing DemographicsTrend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsTrend 3: Scarcity of ResourcesTrend 4: The Challenge of Climate ChangeTrend 5: Dynamic Technology & InnovationTrend 6: Global Knowledge SocietyTrend 7: Sharing Global ResponsibilitySource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 2

Trend 1:Changing DemographicsGlowing WorldPopulationAging SocietiesIncreasingUrbanization8.3 billion people will liveon earthMedian age will increase by5 years to 34 years59% of the world’spopulation will live in citiesSource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 3

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsGrowing World PopulationIn 2020, the world populationwill increase to 8,300 million or20% up from today 7,000million today.Growth is slowing down inboth absolute and relativeterms.Developing countries will grownearly 7 times faster thendeveloped countries.Developing countries will growby 24%, while developedcountries will grow by only3.6% between 2010 and 2030.Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 4

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsGrowing World d-population/index.htmlMICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 5

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsAging SocietiesGlobally, the median age willmove up by 5.1 years, from 29today to 34 in 2030.By median age, the people inthe developed countries willbe 12 years older than thethose in the developingcountries in 2030. However, thegap will narrow.The median age in thedeveloping countries will riseby 4.4 years, reaching 44 years.The median age in thedeveloped countries will riseby 5.5 years, reaching 32 years.Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 6

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsAging SocietiesThe world’s populationreached 7 billion at theend of October 2011.The global populationwill cross 10 billion by2085.By 2011, 22.3% ofpeople will be aged 65or over, up from 7.6%in 2010.The bulk of populationgrowth is expected tocome from thedeveloping 11/05/world population&fsrc nwlMICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 7

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsIncreasing UrbanizationThe urban share of thepopulation will continue to riseat high speed and growth willeven accelerate.By 2030, 4,900 million people,or 59% of the world’spopulation, will live in cities.The developed countries willstill have a far larger share ofurban population then thedeveloping countries in 2030.However, the gap narrows.Over 90% of the increase inurbanization is taking place indeveloping countries.Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 8

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsIncreasing UrbanizationMore than 20 of the world’s top 50 cities ranked by GDP will be located in Asia by the year 2050,up from 8 in 2007. More than half of Europe’s top 50 cities will drop off the list, as will 3 in tegy/Growth/Urban economic clout moves east 2776?gp 1MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 9

Trend 1: Changing DemographicsCorporate Actions1Focus on GrowthRegions2Market Potential ofthe Middle Class3Use cities as thefuture trendlaboratories and findsmart solutionCompanies need to focus oncountries with both agrowing population and agrowing income per capita.In many developedcountries, people aged 60and over will become thelargest segment.Companies can use cities asfuture laboratories, sincethe main impulses andchanges will come for them.Countries that will increasetheir population by morethan 20 million people andreach a per capita GDPabove USD10,000 in PPPwill be India, China, Nigeria,Indonesia, Brazil,Philippines, Egypt andMexico.Companies need to focus onthe people in this segmentby understanding theirneed.Product developmentshould focus on smartsolutions within limitedspace.A 60-year-old in 2030 willAs consumers move intobe more fit and healthiercities, their demand change.than one today, soconsumption patterns willThe new megacities inbe defined by lifedeveloping countries needexpectancy or year left toto establish an appropriateinfrastructure.live.MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 10

Trend 2:Globalization & Future MarketsOngoingGlobalizationBRIC: The NewPowerhousesBeyond BRICExports and FDI will growfaster then GDPTheir GDP will grow by 7.9%per annualThe Next 11 will grow by5.9% per annual - Stronggrowth for ASEAN 5Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 11

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsOngoing GlobalizationGlobalization will continue,with exports and FDI growingfaster than GDP.The world’s real GDP will growby 4.0% p.a. to around USD 135trillion by 2030, up from USD63 trillion today.In 2030, exports will accountfor 33% of GDP, compared to26% today and 17% in 1990.In 2030, developing countrieswill account for 73% of globalnominal exports, compared to53% today.In 2030, developed countrieswill account for only 27% ofglobal nominal exports,compared to 47% today.Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 12

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsOngoing GlobalizationChina will overtake the US anddominated global trade in2030, featuring in 17 of the top25 bilateral sea and air freighttrade routes.The projections of bilateraltrade relationships lead to anumber of key opportunitiesfor transport and logistics firms:1. Trade within the AsiaPacific region2. Trade between developedeconomies and emergingeconomies3. Trade between emergingeconomies4. Trade between China /20/1475/MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 13

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsBRIC: The New PowerhousesThe BRIC countries willgenerate 36% of global GDP in2030, compared to 18% today.The BRIC ‘s real GDP will growby 7.9% p.a. over the next 20years, as well as their realexports at 7.8% p.a.China’s annual real GDP growthrate will be the strongest at9.0%, followed by India (8.4%),Brazil (5.5%) and Russia (5.3%).The BRIC’s equity market capcould rise by 10.6% p.a., fromUSD 7.9 trillion to USD 59trillion in 2030.BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, ChinaThe middle class in the BRICcountries will grow 150%, from800 million people today to2,000 million in 2030.Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 14

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsBRIC: The New PowerhousesBy 2030 China’s share of globaleconomic power will matchAmerican’s in the 1970s andBritain’s a century before.Three forces that will dictateChina’s rise are demography ,convergence and gravity.The global economy will remainunipolar but the one will beChina not America.According to the figure, India’sshare of global economicpower will match Japan’s in2010 by economic-dominanceMICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 15

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsBeyond BRICThe Next 11 will have a realGDP growth rate of 5.9% p.a.over the next 20 years.Real exports of the Next 11 willrise faster than the worldaverage at 6.8%.The real GDP of ASEAN 5 willgrow by 6.6% p.a., reachingabout 4.0% of global GDP.Real exports by ASEAN 5 willgrow by 6.4% p.a. and willaccount for 4.8% of the world’sexports.The middle class in the Next 11countries will grow by about120% up to 2030 (730 million).1) Next 11: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines,South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam2) ASEAN 5: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, VietnamSource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011In Asia, about 330 million newpeople will enter the middleclass within the next 20 years.MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 16

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsBeyond BRICChina would still be thelargest economy in 2050,followed by the US andIndia, and the BRICs arenow all projected to be inthe top five.By 2050, the N-11 could goa long way towardscatching the developedcountries - growing fromjust over one-tenth of G7GDP today to around twothirds over the nextseveral decades.G7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United The N-11 generally havethe capacity to delivercontinued strong growth,with average growth ratesover the next 20 years ofover 4%.MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 17

Trend 2: Globalization & Future MarketsCorporate Actions1Focus on ForeignMarkets2Market Potential ofthe Middle Class3Scenario TechniquesDue to the strong economicgrowth in many developingcountries, their demand forinternational brands isrising fast.As engine of economicgrowth and consumption ofthe middle class, companiesshould focus on countrieswith a growing middle class,especially in Asia.As the future cannot bepredicted with greataccuracy, scenariotechniques are becomingmore important.A balanced countryportfolio is needed in orderto benefit from the newemerging markets.Companies need toconsider, analyze andevaluate political, socialand cultural aspects inaddition to externaleconomic developments tomake sure they enter theright markets.The special needs of themiddle class within acountry or culture must beunderstand in order tosatisfy them successfully.The new entrants into themiddle class are hungry forwell-known internationalbrands, status symbols andvariety of services.Selecting the mostappropriate scenario givescompanies great advantagesas they can react quickly,objectively and rationally.Besides analyzingopportunities, scenariotechniques can be used toreduce risk.MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 18

Trend 3:Scarcity of ResourcesEnergyWaterOtherCommoditiesGlobal primary energyconsumption will increase26%Half of the world’spopulation will be living inareas of high water stressSome rare metals will runout - Rising food demandSource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 19

Trend 3: Scarcity of ResourcesEnergyBoth total demand for energyand energy prices will rise upto 2030. However, oil willremain the most importantresource.Total demand for primaryenergy will increase by 26% to16,014 million tonnes of oilequivalent by 2030.The prices of oil and mostother forms of energy areexpected to rise by 2030.The developing countries willconsume 79% more primaryenergy than the developedcountries in 2030.OECD countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark,Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan,South Korea, Luxemburg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain , Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United StatesSource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2011Primary energy consumptionin the developing countries willgrow about 15 time faster thenin the developed countries.MICE Intelligence, Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (Public Organization) 20